Sunday, 28 January 2024

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Dec2023 - vrk100 - 28Jan2024

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Dec2023 



 
(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.) 
 
 
This is an update of an earlier blog posted on 01Oct2023. Now, an analysis of the data as at the end of 31st of December, 2023 is presented here. The data contain select categories of mutual funds in India, numbering sixteen, from equity, debt and commodity (gold) categories.

 

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Analysis of Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index
 
Quarterly Data of MF Assets 31Mar2023
 
Understanding Corporate Debt Market Development Fund (CDMDF) 

Negative Impact of Debt Mutual Fund Tax Changes 
 
EPFO Investments in Stocks Via ETFs 
 
NSE Indices (Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 100 and Nifty 500) Comparison 31Dec2022

Why Do Indian Equity MFs Always Disappoint Investors?
 
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Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 30Sep2023
 
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Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Dec2021


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Table 1: Asset return matrix - annual returns (top to bottom returns in 2023) >  
 

Please click on the image to view better >



 

Table 1 above reveals:
 
> asset class returns are cyclical in nature
 
> gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) did well both in calendar years 2023 and 2022 and their returns are similar in those two years
 
> Credit risk funds did well in 2022, but provided tepid returns in 2023 

> except credit risk fund category, several of the debt fund categories did relatively well in 2023 compared to 2022
 
> equity small- and mid- cap funds did badly in 2022; but in 2023, they performed spectacularly giving highest returns of 43 and 40 percent respectively 
 
> equity flexi cap did poorly in 2022, but the category performance has improved in 2023
 
> Equity international funds too fared well in 2023
 
> in 2023, Arbitrage funds provided the highest annual returns in eight years and liquid fund returns in 2023 are the best in the past five years

 

The above table 1 is presented below, with the same data, but in alphabetical order >
 
Please click on the image to view better >
 

 
Table 3: Asset return matrix - trailing returns (10-year returns top to bottom) with category AUM or assets under management  > 
 
Please click on the image to view better >
 


What table 3 above reveals is:


> Small-cap equity funds have provided best returns on a 10-year trailing returns basis, though they have provided negative returns as a category in 2022, 2019 and 2018

> however, investors in small-cap equity funds have to tolerate higher volatility and it’s in the nature of equities to suffer from volatility of returns

> inflows into small- and mid-cap equity funds have been very high in the past one year; going forward, it would be better to be cautious on these funds for conservative investors

> interestingly, equity large-cap and aggressive hybrid fund categories have provided similar returns on a 10-year annualised return (CAGR or compounded annual growth rate) basis -- as aggressive hybrid funds' volatility is considerably lower, their Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return) must have been superior to that of large-cap equity category

> multi asset allocation category has done reasonably well on a 10-year basis, but gilt funds have failed to generate inflation-beating returns in the same period

> the 3-year CAGR of gilt funds at just 3.8 percent (as on 31Dec2023) is one of the worst in recent years

> on a 5-year compounded returns basis, gold has provided decent returns, but failed to impress on a 10-year basis

> table 3 provides assets under management (AUM) of respective category as of 31Dec2023, so that readers can have a sense of the popularity of the mutual fund categories among investors

> Of course, fund size is a double-edged sword, in euphoric times, investors tend to flock to a particular category boosting asset size and this might prevent that category from future performance

 
The above table 3 is presented below, with the same data, but in alphabetical order >
 
Please click on the image to view better >
 

 
This blog is the first reference point for young and prospective investors to understand the cyclical nature of mutual fund returns.

Note: SEBI introduced norms SEBI categorization and rationalization of mutual funds in October  2017. So, AMCs (asset management companies) made several changes to the mutual fund plans shifting them from one MF category to another MF category and data aggregators changed the data retrospectively. As such, before interpreting trailing returns of more than five years (annual returns before 2018), please be aware of SEBI categorization rules.
 
 
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References and Additional data:
 
1. Important information relating to SEBI categorization and rationalization of mutual fund plans introduced in 2017:

SEBI circular dated 06Oct2017
 
SEBI circular dated 04Dec2017
 
 
 
 
 
2. AMFI monthly data 

3. X post / Tweet thread dated 28Jan2024 on strange phenomenon of multi cap funds outperforming flexi cap funds
 
4. Raw data from Value Research > Annual and Trailing Returns >

 







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Read more:
 
Blog of Blogs Theme-wise 
 
BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Indices Compare 31Dec2023
 
NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2023
 
Nifty 50 Index Yearly Movement 31Dec2023
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets 31Dec2023
 
Global Market Data: 2013 to 2023
 
Kaveri Seed Company Buyback 2023
 
BSE Broad and Sector Indices Returns 31Dec2023
 
BSE Broad and Sector Indices Market cap 31Dec2023
 
Global Bond Yields Fall Sharply 
 
Global market data 31Dec2023
 
India Per Capita Income in Dollars
 
RBI Annual Report and HBIE  - Data Tables
 
India Foreign Exchanges Reserves Comfortable 
 
 
India Debuts 50-year Sovereign Bond

India: Prospects and Challenges
 
Buyback Offers and Weblinks
 
Negative Impact of Debt Mutual Fund Tax Changes

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

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He blogs at:

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BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Indices Compare 31Dec2023 - vrk100 - 28Jan2024

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Indices Compare 31Dec2023

 
 
 
(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)
 
This is an update of an earlier blog -- dated 01Apr2023 -- on the topic, in which the various aspects of broad-based indices, namely S&P BSE 500 and S&P 500, of India and the US are discussed.
 
As calendar year 2023 came to an end, the following tables provide information, as on 31Dec2023, about how India's BSE 500 index and the US' S&P 500 index stack up. It may be noted 29Dec2023 is the last trading day of 2023.
 
 

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Related blogs on US stocks / ETFs / Mutual Funds:

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Compare 31Mar2023
 
BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Comparison 31Dec2022 
 
Compare ETFs based on S&P 500, Russell 2000 and MSCI EM 26May2022
 
BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Indices 31Dec2021
 
NSE IFSC Introducing Trading in US Stocks for Indian Investors 10Aug2021

Letter to an Emerging Dabbler 28Jul2021

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Related blogs on Indian Stock Indices: 

NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2023
 
Nifty 50 Index Yearly Movement 31Dec2023 

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Compare 31Mar2023
 
Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement 31Mar2023

NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2022 

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Comparison 31Dec2022
 
Nifty 50 Index Evolution 2011 to 2021
 
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Fundamentals: 
 
Table 1: Risks, Returns and Valuation parameters > 
 
Please click on the image for a better view >

 

 

On a 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year basis, BSE 500 index has provided superior returns (total returns, including dividends) compared to S&P 500. On a risk-adjusted basis too, BSE 500 provided superior return (3-, 5- and 10-year Sharpe ratios). (BSE 500 returns are in Indian rupee terms, whereas those of S&P 500 are in US dollar terms).
 
If you look at the valuations parameters, like, price-earnings or PE ratio, forward PE ratio and dividend yield, India's BSE 500 is more richly valued compared to S&P 500. The consensus view is Indian stock market may continue to do well driven mainly by optimism about India's prospects in the emerging markets -- but be wary of consensus views.
 
Rebalancing of stocks is done semiannually in June and December of every year for BSE 500, whereas for S&P 500 it's done quarterly in March, June, September and December. 

You can also study comparison of NSE indices, like, Nifty 50 and Nifty 500, versus the BSE 500 index analysed here.

 

Top 10 Stocks: 
 
Table 2: Top 10 stocks and Concentration Risk >
 
Please click on the image for a better view >
 
 

As shown in table 2 above, top five stocks in BSE 500 account for 25.2 percent share, whereas top five holdings in S&P 500 account for 22.5 percent; and top 10 holdings in BSE 500 and S&P 500 have a share of 35.9 and 30.8 percent respectively -- indicating higher concentration risk with BSE 500 index versus S&P 500.
 
HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank are at the top of the league for BSE 500, whereas Apple, Microsoft and Amazon are the top three stocks for S&P 500 as at the end of 2023.
 
Concentration of top five and 10 stocks is slightly lower for BSE 500 as on 31Dec2023, compared to a year ago period. But with S&P 500, concentration risk is higher as of 31Dec2023 compared to 31Dec2022 -- combined share of top 10 stocks in S&P 500 is 30.8 percent as on 31Dec2023 (24.3 percent as on 31Dec2022).

The higher concentration of S&P 500 is due to the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks -- namely, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta and Tesla -- which have provided spectacular returns in 2023 (it may be added they fared badly in 2022).
 
NVIDIA Corp made a spectacular entry into top 10 of S&P 500 in 2023, surpassing technology giants, like, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) and Tesla Inc. Its current stock price is USD 610 a share, with a market cap of USD 1.50 trillion.

NVIDIA has taken a giant leap by taking a paramount position in designing semiconductors / chips used in artificial intelligence (AI), a hot sector since Nov2022.
 
It may be added Microsoft, a few weeks ago, dethroned Apple as the top stock in the S&P 500. As of 25Jan2024, Microsoft's weight is 7.3 percent in S&P 500 versus 6.9 percent for Apple as per data from iShares.

 
Top 10 Sectors: 
 
Table 3: Top 5 Sectors and Concentration Risk >
 
Please click on the image for a better view >
 
 

 
Table 3 above reveals the sector concentration risk inherent in BSE 500 and S&P 500 indices. Based on share of top three and five sectors, concentration risk for BSE 500 is lower compared to S&P 500. 

Compare to end of 2022 figures, the share of top three and five sectors is lower for BSE 500 as on 31Dec2023 -- however, sector concentration risk has increased for S&P 500 compared to a year ago period.

For example, the weight of top five sectors in S&P 500 is 74.2 percent as on 31Dec2023 versus 71.7 percent as on 31Dec2022.
 
If you look at the specific sectors: Information technology, financials, health care and consumer discretionary dominate the US stock market (represented by S&P 500, which is a guage of the US market) traditionally, with the technology sector itself accounting for almost 30 percent share in S&P 500.

In India, the bellwether sectors are: financials, information technology, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and Oil & Gas -- with financial sector itself accounting for almost 30 percent weight in BSE 500. 


Passive Funds

There are only a few passive funds (three ETFs and two index funds) based on S&P BSE 500 and Nifty 500 indices -- namely, ICICI Prudential S&P BSE 500 ETF, Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 Index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 ETF, HDFC S&P BSE 500 Index fund and HDFC S&P BSE 500 ETF (ETF is exchange trade fund).

But the assets of these passive funds are minimal -- indicating lack of investor interest and low-key promotion by mutual funds in India.

It may be added the composition of stocks and sectors in BSE 500 is similar to that of Nifty 500

There are plenty of passive funds, especially ETFs, based on S&P 500 index in the US, to choose for investors.
 

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References and Additional data:

S&P Dow Jones Indices - S&P 500 and other US indices monthly factsheets, index methodology and others 

S&P Dow Jones Indices - BSE 500 and other BSE indices monthly factsheets, index methodology and others

BSE Indices Methodology - S&P Global 

BSE 500 index monthly factsheet - S&P Global

S&P 500 index monthly factsheet - S&P Global

Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 fund - monthly factsheet

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF - monthly factsheet

ICICI Pru BSE 500 ETF - Morningstar India
 
Compare Five Passive Funds based on BSE 500 and Nifty 500 
 

Screenshots of BSE 500 and S&P 500 factsheets > 










Nifty 500 sectors and BSE 500 sectors >




 
------------------------------
 
Read more:
 
Blog of Blogs Theme-wise 
 
NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2023
 
Nifty 50 Index Yearly Movement 31Dec2023
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets 31Dec2023
 
Global Market Data: 2013 to 2023
 
Kaveri Seed Company Buyback 2023
 
BSE Broad and Sector Indices Returns 31Dec2023
 
BSE Broad and Sector Indices Market cap 31Dec2023
 
Global Bond Yields Fall Sharply 
 
Global market data 31Dec2023
 
India Per Capita Income in Dollars
 
RBI Annual Report and HBIE  - Data Tables
 
India Foreign Exchanges Reserves Comfortable 
 
 
India Debuts 50-year Sovereign Bond

India: Prospects and Challenges
 
Buyback Offers and Weblinks
 
Negative Impact of Debt Mutual Fund Tax Changes

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

X (Twitter) @vrk100