Global Market Data 31Dec2023
(This
is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a
recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial
adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested
interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)
(please look at the blog dated 16Jan2023 for data from 2012 to 2022)
Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 31 December 2023 (29th Dec is last trading of Dec2023), of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows:
After a lacklustre performance in Jul-Sep2023 quarter, global stocks have done well during the last quarter of 2023, that is, Oct-Dec2023 quarter.
Of all major indices, Nasdaq Composite has delivered the maximum returns of 13.6 percent during the fourth quarter, followed by Dow Jones (12.5 percent) and Nifty 50 (10.7 percent).
The Chinese stocks listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges have continued their dismal performance, with Hang Seng and Shanghai indices losing 4.3 percent each during the quarter.
Rally in global stocks and bond prices followed speculation that the US Federal Reserve would be cutting interest rates three times next year. The global stock rally started during the first / second week of November 2023 and continued till the end of December 2023.
During the fourth quarter, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell by 71 basis points (one-hundredth of a percentage point equals one basis point) to close the year at 3.87 percent.
As a result of speculation surrounding US federal funds rate cut next year, US dollar weakened with the US dollar index (DXY) losing 4.5 percent of its value in the fourth quarter. Dollar weakness led to strength in British Pound, Japanese Yen and Euro.
Bitcoin has a massive rally of 56 percent during the Oct-Dec2023 quarter (as of now, its price is USD 42,130).
Crude oil fell sharply in the fourth quarter, with Brent and WTI crude losing 19 and 21 percent respectively. Gold and Silver shined with gains of 11 and 7 percent respectively. Bloomberg commodity index fell by almost 6 percent.
(story continues below)
------------------
Related Blogs:
Global Market Data 2012 to 2022
Global Market Data 30Sep2023
Global Market Data 31Mar2023
------------------
Year-to-date (past 12-month returns) global market data as on 31Dec2023 (29th Dec is last trading of Dec2023) are presented below:
Table 2: (please click on the image to view better)
The biggest surprise of 2023 is the spectacular rally in Japanese stocks, with Japan's benchmark index Nikkei 225 gaining 28 percent in 2023.
The US stocks too have done well with Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 and Down Jones gaining 43, 24 and 14 percent respectively in 2023.
The rally in Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 is mostly from the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, namely, Apple Inc, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta Platforms and Tesla.
The two graphs below from WSJ will reveal the dominance of these seven stocks in S&P 500 index >
German stocks too have done well with Dax 30 surging by 20 percent in 2023.
The Chinese stocks in 2023 continued their dismal performance of 2022. After losing 15.5 and 15.1 percent respectively in 2022, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices lost their value in 2023 too -- losing 13.8 and 3.7 percent respectively in 2023.
In contrast to Chinese stocks, Indian stocks have done well in 2023, especially the small- and mid-cap stocks. The large-cap Nifty 50 index gained 20 percent in 2023, while the BSE Midcap index surged by 45 percent during the period.
Despite the rally in bond prices (bond prices move inversely to bond yields) in November and December of 2023, the US 10-year Treasury is almost the same -- ending the year with 3.87 percent yield (versus 3.88 for the year ending 31Dec2022).
Global commodities lost their value in 2023, with crude oil losing about 10 percent. However, gold rallied with a gain of 13 percent, while silver remained the same.
Bitcoin, the king of crypto currencies rallied by 154 percent in 2023 (in US dollar terms) -- however, it may be noted Bitcoin almost lost two-thirds of its value in 2022.
The US dollar index lost two percent in 2023, with British Pound and Euro gaining in value (versus the US dollar), while Japanese Yen lost substantially against the US dollar.
Overall, calendar year 2023 is good for most of the asset classes, namely, stocks, bonds, gold, Bitcoin and major non-dollar currencies. Year 2023 is not good for crude oil and other commodities -- there is no let up in the dismal performance of Chinese stocks.
The good trend of stocks may continue during the first quarter of next year -- however, the trend depends on the US Federal Reserve not giving any nasty surprises to markets. Of course, the US Fed will be guided by the oncoming data -- and nobody knows how the data will present itself next year.
- - -
------------------------------
Read more:
Blog of Blogs Theme-wise
India Per Capita Income in Dollars
RBI Annual Report and HBIE - Data Tables
India Foreign Exchanges Reserves Comfortable
Analysis of Small Savings Schemes and Interest Rates
Is De-Dollarization Real?
India Debuts 50-year Sovereign Bond
India: Prospects and Challenges
India Public Debt and Floating Rate Bonds
India Equity ETFs Worth Considering
JP Morgan Guide to Markets Sep2023
Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 30Sep2023
Divergence in Volatile Global Bond Yields
India's Crude Oil Import Dependency Jumps under Modi
Buyback Offers and Weblinks
Negative Impact of Debt Mutual Fund Tax Changes
Weblinks and Investing
-------------------
Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.
CFA Charter credentials - CFA Member Profile
CFA Badge
He blogs at:
https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/
X (Twitter) @vrk100
No comments:
Post a Comment