Tuesday, 8 April 2014

Compare GDP, Exports & Population-VRK100-08Apr2014


Compare GDP, Exports and Population


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P.S.:

The following images (from old files) are included here from 09Apr2023 for reference purpose > These images are just for information purposes only, this is not investment advice. Readers should consult their own advisers for advice before making any investment decisions:
 
These images / screenshots / weblinks are sourced from various web sources  > 


aaa
 
 
27Sep2023 Soliloquy Swagatham
 
Why are you punching below your weight?
 
20Aug2023 Soliloquy Swagatham
 
As a bachelor, you get a discount of 50 percent from society. And as a renter, you get a discount  of 40 perecent from the same society.

Combined together, a bachelor-cum-renter gets a discount of 90 percent! 
 
-------------------
 
Read more:
 
Blog of Blogs Theme-wise 
 
Weblinks and Investing
 
India Fixed Income Data Bank
 
Indian Economy Data Bank 

India Forex Data Bank 
 
Corporate Groups and Listed Companies 29Dec2024
 
Corporate Governance Concerns - Indian Companies 13Dec2024 (including family feuds / family disputes) 
 
Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry 16Feb2024
 
various uploads on Scribd by VRK100  
 
 

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Apr2025: Screener.in weblinks for several Nifty indices and Rupee Vest weblinks for passive funds based on these indices
 
(see blog "Why are mutual fund investors selling out" for more on mutual funds and weblinks)
 
India Mutual Funds: Passive funds (ETFs or exchange-traded funds and index funds):
 
Tweet thread 12Jun2025 Flagship Equity ETFs - AUM, expense ratio, tracking error and volume data (image attached)
 
ETF Volumes data: 

Volumes for ETFs are extremely important to consider before investing.
 
NSE Market Watch - Exchange Traded Funds / ETFs (to check volumes)
 
Asset Size (AUM) is also important while considering ETFs: Passive Titans of India: the Top 10 Equity Indices by Asset Size 17Jul2025  
 
Image containing asset size data as of 30Jun2025: India Passive Equity Funds and Their Asset Size >
click on the image to view better > 
 

 
India Flagship Equity ETFs: 
 
Nifty 50 ETFs (only top 5) with highest AUMs as of 31Mar2025 (ignored ETFs of PSU-owned AMCs) 
 
NSE India - Nippon India ETF Nifty 50 BeES

NSE India - ICICI Pru Nifty 50 ETF

NSE India - Mirae Asset Nifty 50 ETF

NSE India - HDFC Nifty 50 ETF

NSE India - Aditya Birla SL Nifty 50 ETF 
 
BSE Sensex ETFs (only top 3) with highest AUMs as of 31May2025 (ignored ETFs of PSU-owned AMCs)  
 
NSE India - ICICI Pru BSE Sensex ETF
 
NSE India - LIC MF BSE Sensex ETF
 
NSE India - HDFC BSE Sensex ETF 
 
Nippon India BSE Sensex ETF (not traded on NSE)
 
 
Nifty Next 50 ETFs (only top 3) with highest AUMs as of 31May2025 (ignored ETFs of PSU-owned AMCs)
 
NSE India - Nippon India ETF Nifty Next 50 Junior BeES
 
NSE India - ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50 ETF
 
NSE India -  Mirae Asset Nifty Next 50 ETF

 
Nifty Midcap 150 ETFs (only top 5) with highest AUMs as of 31May2025 (ignored ETFs of PSU-owned AMCs)
 
NSE India - Nippon India ETF Nifty Midcap 150
  
NSE India - Mirae Asset Nifty Midcap 150 ETF 
 
NSE India - ICICI Pru Nifty Midcap 150 ETF 
 
(note: you may have observed most of the 14 ETFs illustrated above are from just three fund houses, namely, Nippon India, ICICI Prudential and Mirae Asset -- we ignored PSU-owned ETFs here)
 
 
 
Trendlyne weblinks for ETF volumes:
 
Nippon India ETF Nifty Midcap 150 (scroll down to check past two months data on volumes, value in rupee terms and number of trades) -- Trendlyne is restricting data to just one ETF - hence, this is not useful
 
 
Comparison weblinks: Compare mutual funds:
 
1) VR Comparison of Index funds:
 
Nippon India Nifty 50
DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500
UTI Nifty 200 Quality 30
 
 
2) VR Comparison of  index funds:
 
DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight
Nippon India Nifty 50
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500
Nippon India Nifty 50 Value 20 

3) VR Comparison of  index funds: 
 
DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight
Nippon India Nifty 50
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500
Sundaram Nifty 100 Equal Weight 
 
4) VR Comparison of  index funds:
 
UTI Nifty 200 Momentum 30
DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500
Nippon India Nifty 50 Value 20
 



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Nifty Indices - NSE Indices factsheets
 
Nifty Indices - Research papers of Nifty indices

To cross check with Nifty Passive Insights (quarterly) about the new passive funds being launched and to track their AUM.
 

Broad Nifty Indices:

Nifty 100 index - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Axis Nifty 100 Index Fund - Rupee Vest

Nifty Midcap 150 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 Index fund - Rupee Vest

Nifty Smallcap 250 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Nippon India Nifty Smallcap 250 Index fund - Rupee Vest

Nifty Microcap 250 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Motilal Oswal Nifty Microcap 250 Index fund - Rupee Vest


The so-called smart beta indices (where funds based on these indices have reasonable AUM and to assess their volumes also):
 
See above image for asset size of equity indices "India Passive Equity Funds and Their Asset Size" - data as on 30Jun2025 
 
Portfolio overlap (stocks common to both funds) of two MF schemes can be found here: fundoo.com website -- for example, portfolio overlap between ICICI Pru Nifty 100 LV 30 ETF and Nippon India Alpha LV 30 Index fund is 47% weight with 17 stocks common to both (as checked on 11Apr2025)

Tweet thread 02Mar2025: The baloney of 'smart beta' indices

Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 index  - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
VRK100 Blog - Analysis of Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 index
Tweet thread 16Sep2023 on ICICI Pru Nifty 100 LV 30 ETF
Tweet thread 02Mar2025 on Nifty 100 LV 30 index
Tweet 07Apr2025 - Kotak Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper)

Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
ICICI Pru Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 ETF - Rupee Vest
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper)

Nifty 200 Momentum 30 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Nifty 200 Momentum 30 - Rupee Vest
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 

Nifty 200 Alpha 30 - Screener.in (stock list not available) 
Nifty 200 Alpha 30 - Rupee Vest
Nifty 200 Alpha 30 - Value Research - for PE ratios  
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 

Nifty 200 Quality 30 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Nifty 200 Quality 30 - Rupee Vest
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 
 
Nifty 500 Momentum 50 - Rupee Vest
Nifty 500 Momentum 50 - Value Research - for PE ratios
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper)

Nifty 500 Value 50 - Rupee Vest
Nifty 500 Value 50 - Value Research - for PE ratios
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 
 
Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 - Screener.in - full stocks / valuation available
Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 - Rupee Vest
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 

Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 - Rupee Vest
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 

Nifty 50 Equal Weight - Rupee Vest
Nifty Indices (for Methodology document & research paper) 
 
Comparison weblinks: Compare mutual funds:
 
1) Value Research Comparison of  index funds: 
 
Bandhan Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30
UTI Nifty 200 Momentum 30
UTI Nifty 200 Quality 30
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50
HDFC Nifty 50 
 
 
2) VR Comparison of index funds:
 
UTI Nifty 200 Quality 30
Edelweiss Nifty 100 Quality 30
DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50
Nippon India Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30
HDFC Nifty 50 
 
3) VR comparison of index funds:
 
Motilal Oswal Nifty 200 Momentum 30
Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150
Bandhan Nifty100 Low Volatility 30
Nippon India Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 
ICICI Pru Nifty 50 
 
 
 
4) VR comparison of index funds:
 
UTI Nifty 200 Momentum 30
Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150
Kotak NIFTY Midcap 150 Momentum 50 
DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50
ICICI Pru Nifty Next 50 
 
5) VR comparison of index funds:
 
Nippon India Nifty 500 Momentum 50 
UTI Nifty 200 Quality 30
Tata Nifty200 Alpha 30 
UTI Nifty 500 Value 50 
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 
 
6) VR comparison of index funds:
 
Motilal Oswal Nifty 200 Momentum 30 
Kotak NIFTY Midcap 150 Momentum 50 
Nippon India Nifty 500 Momentum 50 
Bandhan Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 
 
7) VR comparison of index funds:
 
Motilal Oswal Nifty 200 Momentum 30 
Bandhan Nifty100 Low Volatility 30
Nippon India Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 
UTI Nifty200 Quality 30
Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 
 
8) VR comparison of index funds:
 
UTI Nifty200 Quality 30 
DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50
Tata Nifty200 Alpha 30 
UTI Nifty 500 Value 50 
Motilal Oswal Nifty 500
 
9) VR comparison of index funds:
 
 Nippon India Nifty 500 Momentum 50 
Bandhan Nifty100 Low Volatility 30
DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50
Nippon India Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30
ICICI Pru Nifty 50
 
10) VR comparison of index funds: Final watchlist as on 06Aug2025
 
Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150  
DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 
UTI Nifty200 Quality 30
Bandhan Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 
ICICI Pru Nifty 50
 
x) VR comparison of index funds:
 
 
 
x) VR comparison of index funds:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Passive equity funds by asset size - Nifty Midcap 150 and "smart" bet indices - data as on 30Jun2025 > (image from excel sheet 'passive funds' in excel file 'Mutual funds analysis 20xx') >
click on the image to view better >
 
 


 
Select passive funds based on - Nifty Midcap 150 and "smart" bet indices - data as on 30Jun2025 > (image from excel sheet 'passive funds' in excel file 'Mutual funds analysis 20xx') >
click on the image to view better >
 

 
Nifty indices Index dashboard - monthly (returns and risk) - Jul2025 PDF 
 
Strategy indices - returns, volatility and valuation ratios - data end-31Jul2025 >
click on the image to view better > 
 

 
Broad based indices - returns, volatility and valuation ratios - data end-31Jul2025 >
click on the image to view better > 
 

 
 
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 Sectoral / Thematic / Strategy Nifty Indices:
 
All weblinks related to passive funds (ETFs + index funds) from NSE / Nifty indices >
 
NSE Market Watch - Exchange Traded Funds / ETFs (to check price / volumes)
 
Nifty indices - market data - ETFs or exchange traded funds (to check price) 
 
NSE market watch - all Nifty indices (incl broad based, sectoral, etc) - to check index level, % change, 52-week high and 52-week low 
 
Nifty Indices - NSE Indices factsheets / indexogram - monthly
 
Nifty Indices - Research papers of Nifty indices
 
Nifty Indices Index methodology - PDF for Jun2025 - the PDF gives details of which sectors / sub-sectors form part of a particular index -- for example for, financial services index, capital markets index, etc.

Nifty Passive insights - quarterly (incl archives)
 
India passive funds - NSE website - both NSE and BSE 
 
Nifty indices Index dashboard - monthly (returns and risk) - Jul2025 PDF

Nifty Indices broad based indices - equity
 
Nifty Indices sectoral indices - equity
 
Nifty Indices thematic indices - equity
 
Nifty Indices strategy indices  - equity 
 
Nifty Indices return profile (incl total return, historical return)
 
Select sectoral / thematic / strategy Nifty indices 
 
Nifty India digital index - factsheet, methodology, etc.
Nifty India digital index fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 2 passive funds)
Nifty India digital index stocks valuation - Screener.in 
Nifty India digital index - NSE market watch - components / price / volumes 
 
 
Nifty MidSmall healthcare index - factsheet, methodology, etc. 
Nifty MidSmall Healthcare index fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 2 passive funds) 
Nifty MidSmall Healthcare index - NSE market watch - components / price / volumes 
 
 
Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom  fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 1 passive fund) 
 
 
Nifty MidSmall financial services  fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 1 passive fund) 
 
 
Nifty MidSmall India consumption fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 1 passive fund) 
 
 
Nifty India new age consumption fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 1 passive fund) 
 
 
Nifty EV and New Age Automotive fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 3 passive funds) 
 
  
Nifty Capital Markets  fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 3 passive funds) 
 
 
Nifty India tourism  fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 3 passive funds) 
 
 
Nifty Services Sector index fund - stocks and valuation - Screener.in (no passive funds)
 
 
Nifty Growth Sectors 15 fund - stocks and sectors - Rupee vest (only 1 passive fund) 
 
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Apr2025: Tweets on stock investing, Indian economy, India macro factors: (some of these are added to My Notebook in Screener.in on 25Apr2025 and other dates on Nifty 50 page):
 

Tweet thread 09Jul2025 Promoter stake sale / promoter exit / insider exit / promoter selling in BSE 200 companies in the past four years

Tweet thread 16Dec2024 Funds raised by India Inc via QIPs or qualified institutional placements - QIP placement - QIP vs BSE market cap (image) - promoter selling / insider exit - PE exit - QIP fund raising - QIP fundraising

Tweet thread 15May2024 (thread continued even on 15Jun2025) on US trade protectionism - trade war - bogey of national security - US China trade war - IBM - Microsoft - Nippon Steel vs US Steel - Dubai Ports - Biosecure Act - China EV - TSMC - CATL - AI Chips - AI diffusion order - Canada Mexico tariffs - Trump reciprocal tariffs - Trump tariffs - (new thread wef 23Jul2025 - Tweet thread on Trump trade deals)

Tweet thread 19Jan2024 US 10-year 2-year Treasury yield spread - Fed interest rate cut - negative spread - negative yield spread - positive yield spread - US dollar index or DXY / USDX

Twee thread 30Jan2024 - India cement sector consolidation -  mergers and acquisitions 
 
Tweet thread 27Apr2025 Promoter share pledge; example of Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals promoter K Raghavendra Rao (four images) - promoter pledge - promoter pleding
 
Tweet thread 23Apr2025 India steel sector - trade protectionism and safeguard duty - China anti dumping fear  

Tweet thread 16Apr2025 Indian stocks seem to be overvalued; stocks with high PE ratios are rising more
 
Tweet thread 12Apr2025 US bond market concerns, rising Treasury yields, lack of global investors for US Treasuries and FPI flows to India 
 
Tweet 06Mar2025 PM Modi govt may not reverse increase in LTCG / STCG taxes; pre-conditions to attract FPI / FII flows to India - another thread 29Sep2025 on unfairly charging both STT and LTCG tax on equities, why frame of reference matters, front-loaded vs back-ended; wages vs investment income

Tweet thread 04Mar2025 dangers of overexposure to capital market related stocks; launch if Nifty Capital Market Index
 
Tweet 02Mar2025 factors contributing to recent rupee depreciation 

Tweet 10Jan2025 Why WTI and Brent crude oil prices differ
 
Tweet thread 23Dec2024 Dividend Aristocrats
 
Tweet thread 14Oct2024 Ajay Shah on Journey Indian Finance (with images)
 
Tweet thread 04Sep2024: Kiril Sokoloff: "China was leading in 54 of the 63 critical technologies." (image)
 
Tweet 29Aug2024 promoter selling can be good (e.g., Gangwal family in Indigo Airlines) 

Tweet 11Jul2024 India premium - factors driving Indian stock market multiples
 
Tweet thread 17Jun2024 timeline of events of 1991 Forex Crisis and Gold Pledge
 
Tweet thread 31May2024  Negative Stock - Bond market correlation are rare in India
 
Tweet 11May2024 'Elimination Investing' by Helios Mutual Fund 

Tweet 08May2024 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) history - 25 years zero return
Tweet thread 29Apr2024 How Nifty Next 50 Index changes over four months

Tweet thread 26Mar2024 India rupee natural depreciation - factor influencing it

Tweet thread 21Feb2024 University of Brutal Markets, indiscipline, lavish spending, human emtion, income-generating assets, Las Vegas and excitement

Tweet 31Jan2024 on EMS sector

Tweet thread 19Jan2024 Indian stock market frenzy / euphoria,  QIPs, over valuation, PM Modi taking credit for PSU / railway stocks rise, Modi ministers taking credit, SEBI caution / studies on day trading, MNC selldowns and others

Tweet thread 30Nov2023 India market cap - BSE market cap of all companies - continues in Jun2025

Tweet thread 22Sep2023 market breadth of BSE 500 index - advance decline ratio or ADR
 
Jun2025: Tweets on stock investing, Mutual funds in India, Indian economy, India macro factors: (some of these are added to My Notebook in Screener.in on 16Apr2025 and other dates on Nifty 50 page): 
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  Oct2025
 
Tweet thread Oct2025
 
Tweet thread  04Oct2025 India moves to internationalise rupee - de-dollarisation - dedollarization - rupee internationalisation
 
Tweet thread  26Sep2205 Nvidia added USD 4 trillion market cap in 5 years - top world semiconductor companies - market concentration - fabless chip designers, foundries, integrated device manufacturers
 
Tweet 26Sep2025 master class in letter writing English language - Azim Premji to Karnataka CM on traffic chaos 
 
Tweet 24Sep2025 Confidential IPO draft papers with SEBI  - pre-filing process
 
Tweet thread  23Sep2025 Nvidia to invest USD 100 billion in OpenAI for data centres
 
Tweet thread 22Sep2025 EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) - steel and aluminium exports
 
Tweet thread  20Sep2025 - India in soup - everhting connected - 50% tariffs, Iran port, USD 100,000 fee for H-1B visa, etc. - INSTC - comparative advantage - Trump expanding his ambit
 
Tweet thread  20Sep2025 Protectionist US immigration policy - labour protectionism - USD 100,000 fee for H-1B visas
 
Tweet thread 18Sep2025 Nvidia to buy USD 5 billion stake in Intel 
 
Tweet thread 18Sep2025 Groww IPO hype - Satya Nadella - disruption, innovation, Clayton Christensen's The Innovator's Dilemma

Tweet 15Sep2025 New Tax Regime Section 87A tax rebate - tax slabs FY 2025-26 - TDS - senior citizens
 
Tweet thread 12Sep2025 dual listing on NSE and BSE
 
Tweet thread 11Sep2025 The South North Divide - inequality, delimitation, federalism, etc. - also from D Subbarao, former RBI governor
 
Tweet thread  11Sep2025 OpenAI and Oracle sign USD 300 billion cloud computing deal - Stargate project
 
Tweet 03Sep2025 18-month fractal in Nifty 50 - 18-month volatility
 
Tweet 05Sep2025 GST rate cuts and CPI inflation
 
Tweet 05Sep2025 Apple varieties 
 
Tweet 04Sep2025 Urjit Patel on Trump Tariffs
 
Tweet thread 04Sep2025 India's multi-rate GST structure - Arvind Subramanian - 45 distinct GST rates
 
Tweet thread 03Sep2025 Actual GST rate cuts
 
Tweet 02Sep2025 Amul market share and its lobbying
 
Tweet 02Jun2024 India GDP and GVA gap in numbers; GDP methodology, coalition government growth better
 
Twee thread 01Sep2025 GDP calculation anomaly - GDP deflator - WPI and CPI - PPI or producer price index - NSO GDP methodology
 
Tweet thread 18Jul2025 - global stock indices at all time highs (ATH) 
 
Twee thread 31Jul2025 India impact minimal from Trump tariffs - kid story - 11 crows - second order effects 
 
Tweet thread 29Aug2025 rupee at record low - USD INR exchange rate - dollar appreciation vs rupee appreciation 
 
Tweet thread 19Jun2025 How FTAs with UK, EU impact India's farm trade - India US trade talks collapsed
 
Tweet thread  23Aug2025 - US govt takes 10% equity stake in Intel - socialism in the US? - US govt in private sector - 
 
Tweet thread 24Aug2025 thaw in India China relations / India-China-US triangle
 
Tweet thread  26Aug2025 global personal wealth / private wealth - EMILLI 
 
Tweet thread 25Aug2025 Ecommerce, quick commerce and inflation control / MOSPI scrapping ecommece prices for CPI data - CPI basket rvisions - CPI basket weights - CPI revision - ISP index of services production
 
Tweet thread 25Aug2025 RBI review of Monetary Policy Framework (MPF) - background to MPF - Urjit Patel panel on MPF - FIT or flexible inflatin targeting - CPI basket rvisions - CPI basket weights - CPI revision -
 
Tweet thread 25Aug2025 CPI inflation - CPI basket rvisions - CPI basket weights - CPI revision - food CPI - CPI basket changed post-COVID-19 - inflation underestimation - 
 
Tweet thread  04May2025 Trade protectionism India-ishtyle - India trade polcies 
 
Tweet thread 25Aug2025 Varun Berry of Britannia Industries - UPI - shrinkflation - round number price points - India is still cash economy - 
 
Tweet thread 20Aug2025 government regulation / legislation killing sectors - online gaming platforms, city gast distribution, etc. - impact on FDI flows 
 
Tweet thread 15Aug2025 premature exhilaration - GST rate cut hopes - GST Council skewed composition 
 
Tweet thread 27Sep2021 Realt estate / REIT stocks - REITs - new REIT issues 
 
Tweet thread  18Aug2025 India US trade talks - Peter Navarro - Scott Bessent - Russian oil - Secondary tariffs 
 
Tweet thread 17Jan2025 ADR / ADS / GDR - Infosys ADR and Reliance industries GDR and others - 
 
Tweet 14Aug2025  data on India US trade - India's exports to US
 
Tweet thread 31Jul2025 Nifty Indices internals - new thread 

Tweet 26Jul2025 for sustainable development, what countries should focus on 
 
Tweet thread 24Jul2025 new thread on IEX or Indian Energy Exchange - CERC norms on market coupling 
 
Tweet thread 24Jul2025 India retail sector peer comparison  - Reliance Retail, Blinkit, Amazon India, Dmart, etc.
 
Tweet thread 23Jul2025 Trump trade deals - trade protectionism - trade war - 
 
Tweet Thread 07Dec2021 Direct vs Regular plans - direct plans vs regular plans -  
 
Tweet thread 09Mar2025 private equity deals - PE deals - PE acquisitions 
 
Tweet thread 11Jul2025 Trump threatens India Russia energy trade - secondary tariffs - Western sanctions 
 
Tweet thread 20May2024 LME copper prices - price divergence between US copper prices and LME copper prices - industrial metal copper
 
Tweeth thread 29Mar2024 Daniel Kahneman's book "Noise"  - stock investing - market psychology - investor behaviour - investing process - decision making - human judgment -
Tweet thread 18Mar2025 Field of Dreams - If you build, I'll come - big companies vs small companies - big companies buy out small, mimble and innovators 
 
Tweet thread 08Jul2025 SEBI study: 90% of individual traders lose money in F&O / derivatives trading - their losses have been increasing over the years - retail investors have zero edge against whales
 
Tweet 08Jul2025 Niall Ferguson talking to Consuelo Mack of Wealthrack (image)
 
Tweet 08Jun2025 James Grant talking to Consuelo Mack of Wealthrack (image) 
 
Tweet thread 04Jul2025 Jane Street saga - SEBI ban on Jane Street Group -  

Tweet thread 19May2023 Stock market history - eternal wait - sampling bias - Japan Nikkei 225, Italy FTSE MIB, France CAC 40, Hong Kong Hang Seng, Portugal PSI 20, etc. 

 
Tweet thread 26Jun2025 India energy short and no energy security - strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) - India SPR locations / facilities -  world top 10 oil consuming nations and SPR (image) - 

 
Tweet thread 14Jun2025 Regime change possible in Iran? - Israel offensive against Iran -  crude oil prices - Fordow nuclear facility - 
 
Tweet thread 21Mar2024 SNB ZIRP or zero interest rate policy - negative yielding bonds - negative yield bonds - negative yielding debt - negative yield debt - negative interest rates - negative bond yields - 
 
Tweet thread 23Jun2025 Energy basket of Top 10 countries -  India rank low in crude oil production / reserves, but high in consumption - share of coal, oil, natural gas, hydro, renewables, nuclaer, etc.
 
Tweet thread 18Jun2025 Israel attacks Iran - US bombs Iran nuclear facilities - Middle East -  crude oil - Strait of Hormuz - War mongers - 
 
Tweet thread 08Mar2024 NATO new members - Europe defence spending - European security - NATO expansion -
 
Tweet thread 13Oct2024 weight loss / diabetes drugs - Eli Lilly - Novo Nordisk - Zepbound Mounjaro Ozempic Wegovy  - GLP-1 drugs - new thread 28Jul2025
 
 
Tweet 27Jul2025 VR MF comparison - Atul Bhole of Kotak MF - Mutual Funds

Tweet 22Jul2025 VR international funds - foreign funds with high share of foreign stocks - also tweet 14Sep2025 overseas funds - tweet 18Sep2025
 
Tweet thread 07Jun2025 Multi cap funds vs Flexi cap funds - background to evolution of Multi / Flexi cap funds; return / risk measures over three years 
 
Tweet thread 06Jun2025 Counterintuitive points - RBI cuts CRR and Repo rate - Negative impact on Bank depositors, Bank Disintermediation, Flow of resources to private sector, monetary policy transmission (MPT), Rakesh Mohan, etc. 
 
Tweet thread 25Apr2022 Are Gilt Funds attractive -  India interest rate path - Treasury bills - RBI terminal rate - G-Sec bond yields rising while RBI cutting rates is similar to Fed and US interest rates
 
Tweet thread 04Jun2025 Gilt funds vs Dynamic Bond funds - comparison of returns and risk parameters, data interpretation, implications of wider range of dynamic bond funds vs narrow range of gilt funds
 
Tweet thread 04Jun2025 Chasing maximum returns, dopamine rush, ending up with sub-optimal returns, wide range of returns 
 
Tweet thread 04Jun2025 Flexi cap vs Large Cap funds - wide range of  returns on a 1-, 3- and 5-years basis; return / risk measures over three years 
 
Tweet thread 04Jun2025 Aggressive Hybrid vs Equity large cap funds - downside protection, Best & Worst period returns from Value Research, standard deviation range, risk parameters from Morningstar, etc.
 
Blog 03Jun2025 Mutual Fund Asst Class Returns with similar returns as on 02Jun2025 -  
 
Tweet thread 03Jun2025 Flexi Cap funds vs Equity Savings funds - Best & Worst period returns - drawdown higher for flexi cap funds; return / risk measures over three years 
 
Tweet thread 03Jun2025 Equity Savings funds (hybrid category) vs Dynamic Bond Funds - on a trailing basis over 1- to 10-year periods, Equity Savings funds generated superior returns vs Dynamic Bond funds - standard deviation range from Value Research, data interpretation, etc.
 
Tweet thread 02Jun2025 Conservative Hybrid funds vs Equity Savings funds (both hybrid category) - downside protection, Best & Worst period returns from Value Research, standard deviation range, risk parameters from Morningstar, etc.
 
Tweet thread 02Jun2025 Hybrid mutual funds capital gains taxation
 
Tweet thread 25Dec2024 (new Tweets added in Jun2025 also) Debt mutual funds capital gains taxation - LTCG / STCG tax - gilt funds - dynamic bond funds - liquid funds - debt mutual funds taxation - tweet 15Sep2025 - tweet 18Sep2025 for FY 2025-26 - another thread  18Sep2025 - 
 
 
Tweet thread 25Nov2024 Nifty Indices Trailing Returns - Nifty 50 pedestrian returns - Nifty 50 TRI - Nifty sectoral indices
 
Tweet thread 25Mar2025 What could work against dollar gold price and what could work against rupee gold price
 
Tweet thread 01Jun2025 OBBBA - One Big Beautiful Bill Act - trade war to capital war? - tax on foreign capital - revenge tax - lower returns for US Treasuries - negative for dollar assets - Section 899 of US tax code -
 
Tweet thread 05May2025 IBC / CIRP - India Supreme Court quashed JSW Steel's Rs 19,700 crore resolution plan for Bhushan Power and Steel - background - dirty dozen - IBC / CIRP subverted -
 
Tweet thread 20May2025 RBI route for sorting out issues at troubled banks in India -  foreign banks are saviours> - LVB / DBS Bank - CSB Bank / Canada's Prem Watsa - Yes Bank / SBI / SMBC Bank - what about IDBI Bank (to Emirates NBD Bank?) -
 
Tweet thread 20May2024  NSE India - NSE F&O stocks - list of stocks in derivatives segment (futures and options) and NSE indices
 
Tweet thread 16May2023 -  Share buyback offers and weblinks - data on share buybacks by various companies updated 
 
Tweet thread 01Apr2025 - World's top 10 companies by market cap - Microsofit, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, etc.
 
Tweet thread 27Dec2024  corporate actions - demergers - spin offs - scheme of arrangement - demerged / resulting company
 
Tweet thread 08May2025 Adding war premium (India Pakistan sabre rattling) to equity risk premium or ERP; factors driving ERP and implications for Indian stock market valuations
 
Tweet thread 17Jan2021 How mutual funds performaed between Jan2018 and Jan2021 - notes on equity risk premium or ERP
 
Tweet thread 22Feb2023 Why do mutual funds always disappoint - SPIVA reports on mutual fund underperformance
 
Tweet thread 03May2025 Tragedy of Indian stock markets - lack of share buybacks vs the US and Japan

Tweet 09Apr2025 retaliatory tariffs and NTBs or non tariff barriers (to Trump reciprocal tariffs)

Tweet 07Apr2025 wrong to say India weathered the storm 

Tweet 05Apr2025 negative wealth effect 

Tweet 05Apr2025 markets not logical 

Tweet 05Apr2025 decisions under uncertainty 
 
Tweet 05Apr2025 resilient companies 
 
05Apr2025 embrace uncertainty 
 
Tweet thread 05Apr2025 Trump reciprocal tariffs / Smoot Hawley tariff / optimism about future 
 
04Apr2025 don’t listen to soothsayers 
 
03Apr2025 declining interest rate path India 
 
02Apr2025 Jacob Shapiro on Trump tariffs (with image) 
 
02Apr2025 Prashant Jain interview positive wealth effect from gold? (image) 
 
02Apr2025 Prashant Jain interview India low cost of capital (image) 

Tweet 01Apr2025  Kennth Andrade of Old Bridge MF (image)

Tweet thread 01Apr2025  Dupont Analysis / asset turnover ratio 

31Mar2025 Nifty 50 / Nifty Next 50 / Nifty Midsmallcap 400 internals / their relative riskiness (image)

Tweet 28Mar2025 Do nothing plan “The Killer” Hollywood movie 
 
Tweet 27Mar2025 investment plan “The Killer” Hollywood movie 

27Mar2025 stocks with resilience / momentum (image) 
 
27Mar2025 India macro picture 
 
Tweet 14Mar2025 need brains to keep money Hollywood movie 
 
Tweet thread 02Mar2025 The baloney of ‘smart beta’ indices / passive investing / indexing 

Tweet 07Jan2025  Shankar Sharma (image)

Tweet 25Feb2025 promoter buying / market purchase (image)

Tweet 05Dec2024  Aswath Damodaran on Mag 7

Tweet 05Dec2024  PE ratio sucks
 
25Nov2024 Nifty 50 and sectoral indices returns (image) 
 
Tweet 15Nov2024 safest airplane to fly after a crash “The Drop” Hollywood movie 
 
Tweet 30Oct2024  Rakesh Jhunjhunwala interview Apr2006 
 
Tweet 18Apr2024  NSE launches derivative contract for Nifty Next 50 index 
 
Tweet thread by  Devina Mehra on Daniel Kahneman’s book ‘Noise’ 

Tweet thread 02Nov2023  SEBI license for Andrade's Old Bridge MF

Tweet thread 30Oct2023  Aswath Damodaran interview 
 
Tweet 16Apr2023  Terry Smith of Fundsmith (images)
 

 
Sep2025: Screener.in Industries Overview / Sectors and their stocks weblinks
 
Nifty Total Market Index (top 750 stocks in India) as on 31Aug2025:
 
Tweet 05Sep2025 with image 

Top 5 sectors account for 59% of total weight
Top 6 sectors two-thirds
Top 10 sectors 82%
Top 15 sectors 96% 
 
Top 15 sectors with their weight %:

1. Financial Services 29.99
2. Information Technology 7.95
3. Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.27
4. Automobile and Auto Components 7.24
5. Fast Moving Consumer Goods 6.63
6. Healthcare 6.57
7. Capital Goods 6.21
8. Consumer Services 3.98
9. Metals & Mining 3.31
10. Telecommunication 3.27
11. Power 3.15
12. Consumer Durables 3.08
13. Construction 2.92
14. Chemicals 2.31
15. Construction Materials 2.21 
 
Explanation about sectors, consumer services and services (as classified by Nifty Indices) can be found in my blog 'Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry.' (look for update 05Sep2025 at the end of this blog) 
 
 
 
Sectors and number of stocks as per Screener.in 
 
IT services 94 (includ some IT ER&D)
IT ER&D 7 (after login)
 
pharma CDMO 19 (after login)
pharma MNC  11 (after login)
 
FMCG Diversifed 5 (HUL, ITC, etc) 
FMCG cigarettes 7 (ITC not included here, but in FMCG diversified)

Auto cars 8
Auto ancilliary 143
 
 
Consumer durables ceramics 10 
Consumer durables sanitaryware 3 
sanitaryware ceramics 6 (after login)
 
 
cement 44
 
capital goods electrical equipment heavy 39
capital goods electrical equipment 110
 
FMCG other agri products 76 (include basmati rice, seeds) 
FMCG meat products 5  
 

EMS 13 after login

finance credit rating 3 (after login)

textiles branded apparel 264
 
 
 

 
Financial services NBFC all 515
Financial services Housing Finance cos 18
Financial services Investment cos 64
Financial services Holding cos 18
Financial services DFIs (mosstly PSUs) 9
Financial services microfinance 5
 
Financial services Banks all 41
Financial services other banks (SFBs + payment banks) 9
 
Financial services Capital markets all 64
Financial services stock broking 39
Financial services depositories / MF aggregators 5
Financial services exchanges 3
Financial services product distributors 5
Financial Services credit rating 3 (after login)
 
Financial services FinTech 8     
 
Financial services insurance all 12
Financial services insurance life 
Financial services insurance general  

 
 
IT software products 51 
IT services 94 (includ some IT ER&D)
IT ER&D 7 (after login)
 
 
 
FMCG Diversifed 5 (HUL, ITC, etc)
FMCG household proucts 11 
FMCG personal care 20 
FMCG tea and coffee 28 
FMCG edible oil 35 
FMCG other food 34 
FMCG other agri products 76 (include basmati rice, seeds)
FMCG meat products 5 
FMCG dairy 14  
FMCG other beverages 5
FMCG alcoholic beverages 28 
FMCG cigarettes 7 (ITC not included here, but in FMCG diversified)
FMCG animal feed 8  
 
 
Oil & Gas petroleum products 21
Oil & Gas OMCs 12
Oil & Gas lubricants 9
Oil & Gas oil cos all 19
Oil & Gas oil exploration 6 
Oil & Gas offshore services 5
Oil & Gas oil equipment 5
Oil & Gas oil storage & transportation 3
Oil & Gas gas all 12
Oil & Gas LPG / PNG / CNG / LNG 9 (CGD or city gas distributor)
Oil & Gas gas transmission 3
Oil & Gas gas trading 1
Oil & Gas consumable fuels 5
Oil & Gas coal 3
 
 
Auto all 189 
Auto LMV / HMV  3
Auto two wheeler 11 
 
 
 


 
Capital goods industrial products 464
  (idustrial products inlcude, metals steel products, packaging, plastic products, 
  castings & forgins, metals others, wires & cables, refractories, pumps & engines, 
  abreasive & bearings, glass industrial, etc.) 
 
Capital goods metals steel products 131 
Capital goods wires & cables 19
Capital goods pumps & engines 15
Capital goods abrasives & bearings 8
 
Capital goods industrial manufacturing 174 (includes industrial products, ship building, industrial machinery, railway wagons, etc.)
Capital goods industrial products 168 (a few EMS)
  
Capital goods electrical equipment 110
capital goods electrical equipment heavy 39
capital goods electrical equipment others 71
 
Capital goods aerospace & defence 25
  

   
Consumer services all 233  
Consumer services retail all 76
Consumer services food delivery digital 17
Consumer services retail stores 17
Consumer services speciality retail 23 
Consumer services digital market place and others 9
Consumer services healthcare pharmacy 3
 
Consumer services travel platform digital 17
 
Consumer services others 46 (include education, e-learning and others)


 
Consumer Durables Jewellery / watches 96
Consumer durables consumer elctronics (some EMS) 22
Consumer durables household appliances (a few EMS) 25
Consumer durables houseware 8  
Consumer durables footwear 10
Consumer durables ceramics 10 
Consumer durables sanitaryware 3 
Consumer durables plywood 15 
Consumer durables plastic products 12 
Consumer durables furniture, home furnishing 22 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
s 
 
s
 

Oct2025: Google Finance peer comparison weblinks

 
 
IT stocks 2 (ER&D)
 
 
 
Capital goods stocks 1
Capital goods smart meter stocks 
 
 
 
 
 
Internet / digital stocks (power exchange, digital marketplace B2B, prepaid cards, marketing services)
 
 
 
 
FMCG meat products 
 
Textiles branded apparel 2 
 
 

 
Nifty 50 vs Nasdaq, Nifty IT, Pharma, Auto
Nifty 50 vs Nifty FMCG, Bank, CPSE, Metal
Nifty 50 vs Nifty Realty, Media, Commodities, Energy
Nifty 50 vs Nifty Next 50, Midcap 50, 500
 
Nasdaq Golden Dragon index vs Nasdaq, Nifty IT, Nifty 50
Nifty 50 vs Nasdaq, Nifty IT, SPX, Nifty 500

Nifty 500 vs SSE, Nikkei, SPX, HSI
Nifty 500 vs SPX, FTSE 100, Dax 40, Euro Stoxx 50
 
ADR ADRs Infosys, Wipro, DRL, Nifty IT, Nasdaq
ADR ADRs HDFC Bk, ICICI Bk
GDR LSE Reliance Industries 
 
 
Oct2025: RupeeVest stocks held by mutual funds > for example >
 
 
Mar2025: Super Investors
 
PMS AIF World - all PMS funds
 
PMS AIF World - all AIF funds

 
Feb2024: Super Investors
 
 
 
 
Ticker by Finology super investors 
 
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Associates

GQG partners Rajiv Jain

Nalanda India Equity Fund - Sridharan Anand or Buggy Human - tends to hold for long term

Nemish Shah - tends to hold for long term
 
Ashish Dhawan (Ashoka University) - tends to hold for long term

3P India Equity Fund 1 of Prashant Jain 
 
3P India Equity Fund 1m of Prashant Jain

3P Investment Managers Prashant Jain PDF Dec2023

Anil Kumar Goel (shows past nine quarters data) - tends to hold for long term



Kenneth Andrade (Long Term Equity fund)
 
Old Bridge Focused Equity funds (Kenneth Andrade) 

Aquamarine (Guy Spier)
 
Madhu Kela Madhusudan Kela
 


Aequitas Equity fund (Siddhartha Bhaiya)

Equity Intelligence (Porinju Veliyath)

 
Amansa Holdings - Akash Prakash - alternate
 
Alchemy Capital Mgmt - Hiren Ved 
 
Alchemy Emerging Leaders of Tomorrow - Hiren Ved 


 
 
 
Manish Jain (coffee can PF) of Ambit Asset Management

Jaydev Mukund Mody (Zia Mody husband)

Shankar Sharma - First Global and GQuant
 
 
SageOne Flagship growth 2 of Samit Vartak
 
Ikigai Emerging Equity of Pankaj Tibrewal 

Carnelian Structural shift fund and another fund of Vikas Khemani
 
Marathon Trends PMS of Atul Suri


Hollywood Quotes > IMDb > Hollywood > Quotes >
 
"My daddy, he'd walk for 40 miles for liquor and not 40 inches for kindness." ~ Ruby in "Cold Mountain" (2003)

 
Hollywood Quotes > IMDb > Hollywood > Quotes >

at around 17:30 into the movie "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" >

Sir Francis Walsingham: "William, you look dreadful, they are not feeding you in Paris.

"You can't learn the secrets of the universe on an empty stomach."
 
Hollywood Quotes > IMDb > Hollywood > Quotes >
 
"Don't get emotional about real estate." ~ real estate broker Rick Carver (Michael Shannon) - 99 Homes (2014)
 
"Don't be soft. Do you think America give a flying rats ass about you or me? America doesn't bail out the losers. America was built by bailing out winners. By rigging a nation of the winners, for the winners, by the winners." ~ real estate broker Rick Carver (Michael Shannon) - 99 Homes (2014)

"When you work for me, you're mine.' ~ real estate broker Rick Carver (Michael Shannon) - 99 Homes (2014)
 
 
 
27Oct2025 video: Warren Buffett: "Most People Don't Realize What's About To Happen To Gold" -- Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting on 03May2025: Warren Buffett on Gold:
 
Gold Asset Class: 
 
GamingNext YouTube Video of 27Oct2025:

Transcript from the above video of What Warren Buffett said:

When I was young, there was a saying that stuck with me: When people get scared, they run to gold. When they panic, they run to cash. When they lose faith, they run to nothing at all. I believe we are very close to the third stage. Most people don’t realize this—they think the big threat is inflation or currency collapse, but there’s something even more dangerous brewing, something that will hit gold before it spreads elsewhere.

Before we go further, I encourage you to pause and think about your own savings, your nest egg, your sense of security. Consider where you put your trust. What I’m about to discuss isn’t about price movements or trading signals; it’s about confidence. And once confidence disappears, it takes generations to rebuild. I’ve seen that cycle repeat itself throughout my life.

In the 1970s, Americans lost faith in their government’s ability to manage inflation. In 2008, they lost faith in the financial system. Now, in 2025, people are starting to lose faith in the idea that any currency or store of value can hold meaning when governments and institutions behave as if the basic rules of arithmetic don’t apply.

I’ve often said gold has no real utility. You can polish and admire it or wear it, but it doesn’t produce cash flow. Still, for thousands of years it’s been the emotional anchor for people sensing instability. Gold is not an investment; it’s a mirror reflecting human fear. The more fear in the world, the shinier gold appears.

However, the current fear isn’t just emotional; it’s structural. The entire monetary system is being stretched in ways gold can’t meaningfully hedge against anymore. You could own all the gold bars you want, but it won’t save you if confidence in the system vanishes. I can say with certainty something is seriously out of balance. Central banks, including our Federal Reserve, have built a world where debt is frequently mistaken for wealth and liquidity for stability. It’s what I call the great illusion of modern finance.

When governments print money faster than the economy can grow—and investors pretend it doesn’t matter—you can almost hear the ticking of a time bomb. Gold, throughout history, is now sitting right atop that bomb. People have said, “Isn’t gold supposed to go up when things fall apart?” That’s the common belief, but beliefs don’t last forever.

Gold is priced in dollars, and if the dollar loses meaning, gold becomes just another shiny rock whose price can’t be agreed upon. In a real crisis, the debate won’t be about whether gold is up or down, but about what ‘up’ or ‘down’ even mean when every reference point breaks. I’ve watched this happen before—not in America, but in places where faith in money disappeared overnight. In those moments, people don’t flock to gold, but to food, land, and safety. You can’t eat gold. You can’t grow crops with it. You can’t convince someone starving to trade their last loaf of bread for a metal coin.

If I’m bringing this up now, it’s because I see familiar signs: complacency, blind trust in central banks, experts insisting “this time is different.” In my experience, that’s never true. The next big crisis for gold won’t come from investors selling it—it will come from governments deciding they can’t tolerate gold as an alternative to their control. Already we’re seeing experiments with digital currencies—money that can be tracked, frozen, taxed instantly. The world’s moving from tangible value to virtual trust, and when that happens, gold will stop being a refuge for the fearful and become just a relic of the past.

I’m not saying gold will vanish or has no use in a portfolio. I own some, indirectly, through companies. But the time is coming when the foundation of what gold represents—independent security, resistance to manipulation—will be undermined by something new: the union of government power and digital technology. When that happens, the question won’t be “How much is gold worth?” but “Is gold allowed to be worth anything at all?” Very few are prepared for that stage. We are heading toward a world where value is determined by permission, not by scarcity. Even gold will need permission to matter.

Some may say I’ve changed my view on gold or turned pessimistic, but I’m not predicting doom—just noticing a historical pattern. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. Every strong economy eventually convinces itself it can change the rules of money without consequences. It always ends the same: denial, inflation, then control. Control is the last stage before collapse—and it always starts with things people trust most, like gold.

Markets, like people, have memory. After 2008, people felt fear. After the pandemic, desperation. Now? Fatigue—which makes people careless, willing to accept easy answers and stop asking tough questions. That’s why I’m sounding this warning: something bad will happen to gold—not because it’s losing value, but because the very system that gave it meaning is losing credibility. To explain this, let’s revisit a lesson from 1971: President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold. It seemed temporary but was permanent. From that moment, the financial world changed. For centuries, gold kept governments honest. You couldn’t print more gold. Its scarcity enforced discipline. But removing that anchor opened the door to unlimited promises.

I watched as people struggled to understand, and what followed was a gradual separation of value from reality. At first, everything seemed fine: business was booming, innovation thrived, and markets prospered. But behind the scenes, incentives shifted. Governments started spending more than they had, companies borrowed more than they earned, and investors speculated on things that didn’t exist. It worked—until it didn’t.

The 1970s taught Americans a hard lesson about inflation. When gold was unlinked from the dollar, prices crept up—then surged. Ordinary people watched their savings disappear. Gold soared from $35 to over $800 an ounce. Many believed gold was a perfect escape—safe from government mistakes. But in the end, timing was everything; when inflation cooled and faith in the system returned, gold’s price collapsed. Those who treated it as a religion, not a hedge, lost most of their wealth. The real lesson: trust is the foundation of value, not metal.

The same cycle is repeating now, but at a global scale, and more dangerously. Now, we have dollars not backed by gold, but debts not backed by reason, and assets whose value depends on someone else wanting to buy them at a higher price later. In such a world, gold feels comforting—physical, ancient, tangible. That honesty makes it a target, though. Governments can print and trace digital money, but they can’t control gold. It’s the last bit of financial privacy—a problem in a world obsessed with oversight.

Central banks and governments prefer digital currencies, not for convenience, but for control. If something can’t be printed, it can be banned. That’s where we’re headed. The real threat to gold isn't volatility or competition — it’s policy. A world where gold ownership could be restricted, in the name of stopping crime or protecting the nation. This isn’t far-fetched; history supports it. In 1933, the government confiscated gold from Americans, then revalued it, reducing their wealth overnight. Modern governments can use regulation and code rather than physical raids.

Ask yourself how many of your assets exist as digital numbers on a screen. You trust that system because it works. But if the system itself excludes certain assets like gold, what then? The issue isn't fear—it’s arithmetic and incentives. Every government, sooner or later, picks inflation over discipline. When the bill comes due, they tighten control, create new rules, redefine value. The next big shift won’t come from a market crash, but from a new definition of money itself—and in that world, gold won’t behave as people expect. It’ll be seen as a symbol of rebellion, and symbols often attract powerful enemies.

What’s the alternative? If gold suffers, if paper money inflates, where is safety? Real wealth is not a static thing—it’s a flow of trust, productivity, and energy. It must keep moving and growing. Throughout my life, I’ve invested in companies that create real value, solving real problems. Those win over time, adapting to change. Gold, for all its appeal, cannot adapt. It just waits. The world ahead won’t reward waiting, but participation, creativity, and resilience.

Many people will still hold to the belief that gold is safe when all else fails. But a new kind of crisis is coming—not a crisis of currency but of permission. Soon, we must talk about money’s future: a system already being built that will redefine ownership, value, and freedom.

Money is just a tool—a way society pursues its goals. Change the tool, and you change society. Governments and banks are working on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—programmable, trackable, controllable forms of money. Unlike the cash in your wallet, a digital currency can be restricted, expired, or frozen with the push of a button. The future is a world with real-time monitoring and tracking, not science fiction but the actual direction we’re heading.

Here’s where gold comes back in: it’s the last market that remains outside of the system. It leaves no digital footprint. That makes it dangerous to those who want total visibility and control. Governments won’t need to confiscate gold physically—they’ll just regulate it out of daily use, making it irrelevant. Control, in the 21st century, comes by making you think it’s not worth the risk to use what you own. This pattern repeats: when power centralizes, it tries to suppress whatever it can’t control.

The world is shifting from gold-backed to government-backed code. Once code is the medium of exchange, who writes the code writes the rules. Trust cannot be printed, coded, or legislated. Once people sense that trust is just being replaced by control, the illusion breaks. That’s when panic sets in—not just short market dips, but civilization changes.

Freedoms that once came from gold are now vulnerable. If people stop agreeing on value—even gold loses its purpose. Imagine the global economy as a giant balance sheet: on one side, hard assets; on the other, promises and digital entries that now greatly outnumber real things. Gold was once the governor keeping this in check; now, when decree replaces scarcity, the engine overheats and the system is at risk.

When nations remove the constraints on money, it leads to excessive credit, which inevitably creates bubbles, and every bubble seeks a scapegoat. Gold will be that scapegoat. When the next monetary contraction comes, leaders will blame those who hoard gold or avoid digital currencies. Regulations and taxes will follow, all justified as reforms.

Still, you can regulate gold out of the market, but you can’t remove scarcity from human nature. When governments replace natural value with artificial rules, they invite the very crisis they’re trying to avoid. After gold declines, there will come a deceptive calm, with the world celebrating digital stability—until people forget the real meaning of trust. When that calm ends, the collapse will be fast.

But there is a way through. Wealth isn’t in metal or code but in how we think about value—measured by people willing to trust each other. Lose that trust, and nothing can replace it. Money is a story about the future—a promise that tomorrow will honor what we do today. When governments manipulate that story, they erode the faith that empowers it.

The global economy now runs on easy money: quick fixes, more debt, more promises. But a system can’t run on promises forever; it eventually collapses. Gold will be the first casualty, its value eroded through policy and perception until it’s irrelevant for most people.

Even then, don’t despair. When gold loses relevance, something new is born to take its place. The future of money will go to those who create real, visible value—through productivity and integrity. In a world run by machines and algorithms, human trust and resilience will matter most.

So, what to do? Own things that last. Own skills and ideas that multiply. Don’t bet your future on symbols of wealth, but on your ability to generate value in any system. When investing, look for lasting stories and real solutions to enduring problems. If you serve genuine needs, you’ll outlast any crisis in currency.

As I’ve often said: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” That’s not about timing markets, but about staying disciplined and facing reality. The problem facing gold is a mirror of what’s already happened to society—a trade of discipline for convenience, scarcity for abundance, independence for dependency. The bill for that trade always comes due.

But America has a knack for rediscovering itself under pressure. We’ve survived depressions, wars, technological upheaval. Trust fails and returns. Young people, don’t chase shiny objects or speculation. Build your future on service, skill, and integrity. If you do, you won’t have to worry about gold or the dollar. Real value, once created, cannot be confiscated by any government or algorithm.

My father told me during the Great Depression: “You can lose your job, your savings, or even your house, but if you keep your word and keep learning, you’ll never be broke.” That’s still true. The world may change fast, but human character is timeless. Gold may fall and currencies may change, but honesty and diligence always rise in value.

So, when I say something terrible is going to happen to gold, understand that I’m talking about a test of faith—faith in money, in leaders, and in ourselves. The way forward isn’t to run, but to rebuild the trust that gold used to symbolize. In the end, it’s not gold that holds up civilization: it’s people, work, and integrity. Keep your focus on those, and you’ll be stronger than gold ever was.
 
 
 
 
16Oct2025 FT: How Long will the gold mania last?
 
Core Theme: Gold Mania in Full Swing

The article describes a gold-buying frenzy that mirrors past speculative surges. Gold prices have surged to $4,000/oz, an increase of 50% this year, and demand has reached such a high level that retailers are turning buyers away. Gold has evolved beyond its traditional role as a hedge or safe haven, and is now seen as an emotional trade driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), concerns over financial instability, and political uncertainty. Both retail and institutional investors are being drawn in by these factors.

Key Drivers of the Rally

Central Bank Buying: Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have made record purchases since 2022, trying to diversify away from the US dollar. Central banks now hold nearly as much gold as they do in US Treasury securities, marking a significant shift in the global financial landscape.

Retail and Institutional Demand: Retail interest in gold is at unprecedented levels, particularly in countries like Japan, Turkey, Hong Kong, and the UK. Additionally, $26bn flowed into gold-backed ETFs just in Q3 alone, demonstrating massive demand.

Fear-Based Narrative: A sense of fear permeates the market, with investors concerned about financial Armageddon, the Trump-driven debt explosion, loss of Federal Reserve independence, currency debasement, and the risk of stagflation. This fear is exacerbated by gold-plated FOMO, which is overshadowing rational investment frameworks.

Market Conditions: Expectations of interest rate cuts are lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a weakening US dollar, ongoing political instability, and trade tensions (e.g., with China) are further driving demand.

What Could Stop the Rally?

Return to Macro Stability: If US economic growth remains strong without reigniting inflation, gold prices could fall. A stronger dollar, rising real interest rates, or renewed confidence in government debt could slow or stop the rally.

Profit-Taking / Central Bank Rebalancing: As gold prices rise, some central banks may decide to sell to rebalance their reserves. Retail investors may also lock in profits if they believe gold has reached a peak.

Historical Patterns: Gold is now trading over 20% above its 200-day average, a level that has historically been associated with significant corrections, often between 20–33%.

Loss of Narrative Cohesion: If inflation does not materialize or political risks subside, the fundamental story driving gold’s price rise could collapse, leading to a potential price drop.

Risks of a Bubble

There are several indicators that suggest gold might be in a bubble. These include it being the most crowded trade, as noted by Bank of America, along with panic buying and stockouts at places like the Royal Mint and Japan’s Tanaka Precious Metals. Silver prices are also surging, often seen as a speculative spillover from gold bubbles. Moreover, gold is rising even though real interest rates are increasing, which typically does not align with traditional valuation frameworks.

Geopolitical & Structural Shifts

The gold rush isn’t just a retail phenomenon. There are structural changes underway, such as sovereign diversification away from the US dollar. Concerns about fiscal dominance, where central banks lose their independence due to government pressure, are also playing a role. Countries like Japan, which have experienced decades of deflation, are now feeling the effects of inflation, which is changing household behavior.

Investor Psychology & Behaviour

Gold has become a mirror for global anxiety, with people buying it not necessarily for financial returns but for security, sovereignty, and tangibility—something they can physically hold in their hands. The rally is largely driven by emotion, as one analyst notes, it “defies logic.” This suggests that speculative behavior is fueling the price increases, rather than sound economic reasoning.

How Long Will Gold Mania Last?

Short Term (next 6–12 months): Gold’s momentum could continue if political risks and expectations of interest rate cuts persist. The positive feedback loops from ETF inflows, retail buying, and central bank accumulation may keep the rally going.

Medium Term (1–2 years): The risks of a correction rise as investors reassess the inflation outlook, central banks begin to rebalance their reserves, and sentiment starts to cool. The speculative nature of the rally suggests vulnerability in the medium term.

Long Term (>2 years): If fears over fiat currency debasement or geopolitical fragmentation continue, gold could consolidate at a higher range. However, if economic confidence returns, mean reversion is more likely, leading to a drop in gold prices.

Conclusion: Between Fear, Fundamentals & FOMO

Gold’s current rally is driven by a combination of fear, macroeconomic fundamentals, and speculative enthusiasm. While there are solid drivers such as central bank purchases and the need for inflation hedging, the rally is also heavily influenced by emotion and shows bubble-like characteristics. The future of the gold market depends largely on developments in Fed policy, inflation data, dollar strength, geopolitical events (especially surrounding Trump, China, and the Middle East), retail sentiment, and central bank behavior. As history shows, no mania lasts forever, and gold mania will likely persist as long as uncertainty does. 
 
FT 17Oct2025: Gold as ‘debasement trade’ doesn’t add up
 
This analysis offers a comprehensive and nuanced look at the current trends affecting gold prices, the US dollar, and broader financial markets, particularly in relation to inflation, fiscal policy, and speculation. Let’s break it down into a few key points:

1. Cocoa Price Drop as a Parallel to Other Commodities:

The report starts by noting a sharp decline in cocoa prices, suggesting a broader pattern where speculative bubbles in commodity markets burst when demand falters, and traders adjust their positions.

The comparison here is to gold, suggesting that similar market psychology—driven by speculative excess—could also be influencing gold prices, which have been rising sharply.

2. Gold’s Rally and the Inflation/Debasement Narrative:

The primary explanation for the rally in gold is the narrative that it serves as a hedge against inflation and dollar debasement, as governments deal with ballooning debt and high inflation expectations.

Ray Dalio and Ken Griffin echo this view, suggesting that investors are moving away from the US dollar as a store of value in response to US policy dysfunction (budget deficits, government shutdowns, etc.).

3. Contradictions in the Debasement Narrative:

One of the main contradictions is that the US dollar has not been debasing. Since April, the dollar index has been relatively stable, and long-term Treasury yields (like the 30-year bond) have shown no signs of inflationary fear or a need to hedge against US debt.

Dario Perkins from TS Lombard dismisses the idea of US dollar debasement altogether, calling it a “bullshit narrative.” He attributes gold’s price rise more to momentum trading driven by speculative forces and market illiquidity rather than fundamental economic pressures.

4. Gold as a Hedge Against More than Just the US:

James Athey and Albert Edwards argue that gold’s rise is not just about the US dollar or inflation within the US but a global shift away from all fiat currencies. This suggests gold is being used as a safeguard against systemic risks in the global financial system, which may be exacerbated by the political and economic uncertainty created by excessive debt in many countries.

Weaponization of the US Dollar: Some analysts, like James Athey, propose that the US’s use of the dollar as a geopolitical tool (e.g., sanctions, trade wars) has made other nations wary of holding US dollars. As a result, countries, particularly in emerging markets, are looking to diversify their reserves into gold and other assets.

5. Gold as a Tail Hedge and a Speculative Play:

Francesca Fornasari suggests that gold may not be a direct bet on inflation or dollar debasement, but rather a “tail hedge”. This is a defensive position taken by investors who are heavily exposed to US assets (e.g., dollars, Treasuries) and want to protect themselves against extreme scenarios where the financial system experiences a major shock (loss of control over inflation, a currency crisis, or a collapse of the dollar’s value).

Another key point is that many investors may expect US debasement to happen but do not want to bet against the Trump administration’s policy of keeping long-term interest rates low. These dynamics add complexity to the decision-making process around gold as a potential inflation hedge.

6. Momentum Trading in Gold:

The piece concludes that the gold rally started as a political event, driven by central banks and geopolitical risk, but has now become a momentum trade. In other words, the gold market is driven more by speculative flows than by real-world inflationary pressures or dollar debasement expectations.

Gold’s price movement is less about any immediate threat to the dollar and more about traders jumping on a trend that seems to be feeding on itself. In that sense, the current rally may be disconnected from its original macroeconomic narratives.

Key Takeaways:

The primary story of gold's rally being driven by inflation fears and dollar debasement is inconsistent with the behavior of the dollar and long-term Treasury yields.

The true driving forces behind the rally may be more speculative and momentum-driven, with political factors (e.g., US fiscal policy, geopolitical tensions) playing a role in fueling demand for gold.

Global central bank actions and the weaponization of the US dollar could also be contributing to gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.

Ultimately, gold may be less about a specific bet on US inflation and more about hedging broader systemic risks in a world where faith in fiat currencies and the financial system is eroding.

This analysis underscores the complexity of the current gold rally, suggesting that it is not just a simple story of inflation protection, but a confluence of speculative behavior, global geopolitical tensions, and changing investor sentiment towards currencies and financial systems. 
 
 
FT 06Oct2025: Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally
 
Discussion about a significant surge in gold prices, driven by a combination of factors, including economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and a shift in investment strategy among different types of investors. Here's a breakdown of the key themes and insights:

Gold’s Record Price Surge

Gold has seen an impressive rally, with prices increasing by over 50% in 2025 alone, hitting a record high of $3,940 per troy ounce. This surge can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors:

Trump's Trade War & Weakening Dollar: The trade war initiated by former President Donald Trump triggered a rush towards safe-haven assets like gold. The accompanying depreciation of the US dollar further boosted gold's appeal as an alternative investment.

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): Investors have jumped onto the gold bandwagon, driven by "gold-plated FOMO"—a fear of missing out on potentially high returns. This phenomenon is not limited to gold but has also fueled significant gains in other markets, including technology stocks.

ETF Inflows: A key driver of this gold price surge has been the inflow of funds into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are attractive to both retail and institutional investors due to their ease of access and lower costs. Over $60 billion has flowed into these ETFs in 2025, and the amount of gold held by these funds has surged above 3,800 tonnes.

Shift in Investor Behavior

The market has shifted towards a broader group of investors, with a growing number of pension funds and institutional investors incorporating gold into their portfolios. This marks a departure from the traditional 60/40 split between equities and bonds. A more common strategy now suggested by analysts, including Morgan Stanley, is a 60/20/20 allocation, where gold takes on an equal weight as bonds.

Such a shift could lead to trillions of dollars flowing into the gold market, drastically changing the asset allocation norms for long-term investors.

Gold as a Safe Haven

Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. In times of economic uncertainty, such as the aftermath of the global financial crisis or concerns over high levels of sovereign debt, gold tends to perform well as investors seek stability.

Inflation & Currency Fears: Some investors are increasingly looking to gold as a bet against the dollar, fearing that inflation could erode the value of cash holdings. The idea of "shorting the dollar" while buying gold reflects this sentiment.

Volatility in Bond Markets: Given the low yields and volatility in bond markets, gold is being seen as a more attractive diversifier than bonds, especially with rising concerns over record sovereign debt issuance.

Gold’s Traditional Criticism & Appeal

While some investors, like Warren Buffett, have criticized gold for offering no income and being hard to value, it continues to appeal in periods of economic instability. Despite failing to surpass its 2011 highs until 2020, gold is now seen as a useful asset for portfolio diversification, particularly as concerns over inflation and bond market volatility mount.

The Role of Central Banks & Monetary Policy

Central banks have been major buyers of gold in recent years, especially as they have resorted to quantitative easing and low-interest-rate policies. The growing fear that inflation could rise above target, potentially driven by the pressures of sovereign debt and monetary policies, has further contributed to gold’s appeal.

The Role of Gold as a Tail Hedge

Gold is also being used as a "tail hedge," a risk-management strategy where investors position themselves against extreme market scenarios (like a loss of control over inflation or a sharp currency devaluation). Although investors don't view these extreme scenarios as likely, they want to be prepared for the worst.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally is a product of both macroeconomic conditions and a fundamental shift in investor behavior. As fears of inflation, debt crises, and economic volatility rise, gold is being increasingly seen as a long-term investment, both as a hedge and as a diversifier in the face of uncertain economic conditions. The massive inflows into gold-backed ETFs and the shift in portfolio allocations to include gold in a meaningful way indicate that gold's role in investment strategies is becoming more significant than it has been in recent years 
 
 
 
16Aug2025: Prof Aswath Damodaran talking about his personal portfolio, with Excess Returns: video: Your Returns Can Wreck You:

Investing’s end game is to preserve and grow wealth; not to beat markets or become rich.

Your investing approach depends on what stage of life you are; suppose you have a secure job and young, you have the advantage of holding stocks for long term. If you don’t have a steady job, your investing needs will differ.

I find bonds incredibly boring; I don’t hold any bonds. I’m lucky I don’t look for cash flows from my investments. I’m a tenured professor and I’ve other sources like from my books – as such, I don’t need income from bonds. 
 
If you don’t need current income, there is no point in holding bonds – because the income from bonds will be included in your current income and you need to pay taxes year after year, bringing down your after-tax returns. I don’t say this is right for everybody; because many people don’t have job security. 

Strategic versus tactical investing: All my investments are strategic; I don’t do tactical investing. Tactical investing mean you’re looking for the big winner in the next three months; I’m not cut out for that – I don’t have the time and energy for that.

In any given year, I may add three to five stocks in my portfolio at the most; and I may trim two to four stocks in a year. There is not much turnover in my portfolio. I currently have 40 stocks in my portfolio. 

Don’t put your lifestyle at risk by concentrating your portfolio in a few stocks. You may get lucky with investing half your money in a single stock. 

I never enter a stock with more than 5% of my portfolio. I don’t believe in conviction. Whenever a stock rises more than 15% in a portfolio, I tend to trim it so that portfolio doesn’t suffer from concentration risk.

I review my portfolio at least once a year; and sometimes more depending on the volatility of stocks. 

Who is a winner? As an active investor, if you make more than 2% of the market every year, you are a winner. Excess returns of 2% are very good over a long period of time. 
 
As Michael Mauboussin says most of your returns are due to luck rather than your skill (luck vs skill). 

The more active you are, the lower your returns will be – this is the most enduring finding of investment research. 

Corporate Life Cycle (CLC): When you look at your portfolio, ensure that your portfolio is overly concentrated in one part of the life cycle. If you focus too much on stable earnings and quality of fundamentals, your PF will be concentrated towards that mature stage of life cycle. 

Economies and markets reward companies at different parts of their life cycle at different time periods. In a bear market, mature companies tend to do better; in buoyant times, young companies do better in markets. 
 
I’m terrible at market timing; so I want a balanced portfolio spread across different stages of CLC. 

Life cycle diversification: With my 40 stocks PF, I not only look at sector diversity, but corporate life cycle (CLC) diversity. I’ve young companies in my PF, some mature companies and I also have declining companies, like, Intel.  

International diversification: my PF has 30-40% exposure to non-US companies. One interesting thing if you buy S&P 500, you’re indirectly exposed to international diversification because of the exposure of S&P 500 to global revenues. 

Alternative investments: Gold, art / collectibles and Bitcoin don’t have cash flows, so they can be priced but can’t be valued. If you add gold to your stocks-bond portfolio, you’re likely to have a PF that is likely to protect your PF in volatile and inflationary times, because gold historically has low correlation to stocks / bonds. 

Alternative investments: If all those public market investors, like, endowments and foundations, start buying Bitcoin and other alternative investments, be careful what you wish for. With too many investors chasing them, alternative investments may lose their ‘alternative’ status. We make them behave more like stocks and bonds. See what we’ve done with real estate; we have ruined it – it behaves more like stocks and bonds these days. Forty years ago, real estate used to be a good hedge against inflation, but it no longer is (probably, Prof Damodaran was referring to real estate getting financialised through REITs – now REITs are traded on stock exchanges and are vulnerable to same risks as we see in equity markets). 

I’m looking for a second-hand Toyota Prius. 

I spend money on experiences rather than things. I enjoy with family members using VRBOs (vacant rental by owners). 

 
 
18Aug2025: Everything is Everything episode: Amit Verma talks to economist Ajay Shah: video: 

How Much Wealth Do You Need to Retire?

It’s actually the wrong question to ask
We need to face uncertainty in life
The world is more complicated than numbers
We need the wisdom of accepting forces beyond our control
We need the wisdom of accepting uncertainty in the world

Longevity has been on the rise; but age on the side of youngsters can be offset longevity problem to some extent, as their investment horizon can be very long, say, 30 to 50 years – giving you the power of compounding

Go for high savings rate and invest in diversified equity assets

Equity diversification: across stocks, sectors and democratic countries 

International diversification: Invest some money in top 20 countries that are high on Freedom Index

Households need to invest in equities to get the advantage of multi-generational wealth

Without equity flavour in your portfolio, it’s not possible to do financial planning

Spreadsheets (giving calculations for retirement money) are good on paper

Real world is not as smooth as your spreadsheet calculation shows

Equity returns are never linear; they come in lumpy instalments

You get equity premium because you’re bearing risk and things can go wrong

You can’t plan for the VUCA world beyond say three or five years

In future, prices for machine-made things will crash; but human services shoot up

You want to hire a house help or healthcare services – which can cost exorbitantly

Illusion of control >

1. you don’t know how financial markets behave in future
2. you can’t be sure about your consumption basket in future
3. you don’t what your future desires will be (suppose if you fall for lifestyle creep in future, all your assumptions about retirement money will go haywire)

At age 20 or 25, you don’t know what your future preferences will be in life
You can’t put all future possibilities in an excel sheet 
It’s the insecurity in our hearts that prompts the yearning for control
We want control and certainty because we’re weak and we’re scared
We need to find an operating system to remain calm, confident and comfortable
Then we can easily navigate the uncertainties of the world
Things will happen and we’ll figure out them as they come along

What we should demand from the government:

1. control inflation
2. no fiscal crisis
3. social stability
4. a conducive environment for firms and finance
5. no capital controls
 
 
 
08May2025: 
 
Why Four of the world's priciest scents are so expensive: YouTube video  
 
Most expensive scents:

agarwood
frankincense and myrrh
sandalwood oil
jasmine oi


Frankincense and myrrh:

Both are resins / gums extracted from trees

Both frankincense and myrrh come from trees in the Burseraceae family

But, frankincense is from Boswellia family - especially Boswellia sacra and Boswellia serrata; while myrrh is from Commiphora trees, especially Commiphora wightii (Indian myrrh) or Commiphora africana (African myrrh)

Boswellia serrata is native to India; frankincense or Sambrani (à°¸ాంà°¬్à°°ాà°£ి) is extracted from this tree in India

frankincense is also known as olibanum or benzoin resin

sambrani dhoop cups are also known as loban cups

Indian bdellium or guggul (Indian myrrh) is a gum resin extracted from the Commiphora wightii tree

Frankincense and myrrh have been used for centuries across the Middle East, Africa and India
 
In Telugu, frankincense is translated as à°¸ాంà°¬్à°°ాà°£ి / à°—ుà°—్à°—ిలము

sources:
India Flora Online
Webmd
Healthline
Andhra Bharati Telugu Dictionary
wikipedia
ChatGPT
Google Gemini
 
 

25Nov2024: Smart meter stocks - power sector - advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) solutions, including smart meters, communication networks, and data management systems
 
Shunt resistors: These are crucial components in smart meters, used to measure current accurately. SBCL specializes in manufacturing shunt resistors, particularly low-ohmic shunt resistors, which are essential for precise current measurement.

Shivalik bimetal controls ltd (SBCL)
Genus Power & infrastructure ltd
Advance metering technology ltd
HPL Electric & power ltd  
GMR Power & urban infra ltd
Tata Power co Ltd
Adani energy solutions Ltd   
Power grid corporation India ltd
Kaynes Tech india ltd
Schneider electric ltd
Techno electric & engineering co ltd    

FT 02Jun2024 by Amy Kazmin - If elected in June, Eike Schmidt wants to run city ‘according to corporate criteria, without ideology’
 
Florence, Italy  

Eike Schmidt made a name for himself as director of Florence’s famed Uffizi Gallery by taking on the ticket-scalping mafia which was selling museum passes at inflated prices.

Now the German art historian — who recently acquired Italian citizenship — is fighting another improbable battle: to be elected as mayor of the northern Italian city.

“What is important... is to run the municipality according to corporate criteria, without ideology,” Schmidt recently told affluent Florentines.

Schmidt — an expert in Florence’s powerful Renaissance-era patrons, the Medici family, and their miniature ivory sculpture collection.

Florence suffers from excessive tourism.

Florence is the birthplace of modern banking and cradle of the Renaissance.

The city — which spent a year under Nazi occupation after Italy switched sides during second world war — is among the last leftist bastions in the country.



20Apr2024 Real Vision video - Ash Benington talks to Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments

- crude oil markets have shrugged off Israel-Iran shooting at each other last week

- the fight between Israel and Iran seems to be a cat fight; neither country is serious about waging a war

- Iran well telegraphed its attack on Israel; meaning Iran alerted the US and other countries well before their attack on Israel

- But Israel's attack on Iran was different; Israel gave advance info to the US only at the last minute, before attacking Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria

- there is shadow boxing going on between Israel and Iran

- no country in the Middle East wants an escalation of war in the region; but Israel's Netanyahu gov't has a vested interest in war escalation

- the longer the war goes on, the longer Netanyahu doesn't have to face questions on security failures (of 07Oct2023 when Palestinians attacked Israel) and doesn't need to face corruption charges

- the most important thing in Middle East happened last year when China brokered a diplomatic deal between Saudi Arabia (Sunni regime) and Iran (Shia regime)

- Saudi Arabia seems to be focusing on development rather than doing proxy war with Iran

- Saudi Arabia and Iran now are not at each other's throat; this is a different dynamic in the Middle East

- energy prices haven't responded to the Israel-Gaza conflict the way one would have expected -- markets seem to be more sophisticated now compared to six months ago; maybe, markets don't see the conflict spreading to other areas; maybe, the global economy is much weaker than expected dampening crude oil demand; maybe, market is thinking inflation will come down

- my longer term expectation is inflation in the US will not go down and it will not come down; inflation probably will be moving in a range; we are going to have periods of elevated inflation and periods of deceleration; we will have a lot of volatility

- the results of US presidential election on 06Nov2024 will have big impact on markets

- Trump and Biden have similar views -- both implement trade protectionism; they are both America First and they are both for fiscal profligacy

- Biden did not get rid of any of the restrictions imposed by Trump earlier

- but how Trump and Biden want to achieve their common goals is different; Trump wants to use a blunt instrument (tariffs on Chinese goods) while Biden's approach is more surgical; Biden doesn't want go aftern China in a blanket way

- Trump doesn't care about European allies and other allies; whereas Biden is amenable to allies

- Biden is not going after European allies the way Trump did; Biden doesn't see Canada and Mexico as threats for trade or others

- Biden and Trump have similar goals; but their tactics for achieving those goals are different

- to paraphrase Churchill, China has no permananent friends nor enemies; they have permanent interests

- what China wants more in the Middle East is stability; China is interested in the ME because China sources its oil from there; ME is an investment destination for them; maybe, they are interested in Belt & Road Initiative building alternative trade routes in case something happens to the maritime realm

- China played a stabilising role in ME and it will continue to play that role

- the US-China relations have improved in the past two years compared to what happened during the Trump presidency

- if the US is stuck with the Middle East problems, it has less time for South China Sea; it has less time for improving Taiwan relations

- I'm looking at market opportunities in emerging markets away from the Middle East problems

- there are opportunities for investors in Brazil and Indonesia (good demographics)
 
 
 
16Apr2024 Real Vision video - Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic talk about geopolitical risks
 
Middle East is a dumpster fire

it's a multi-polar world -- but Americans don't like this phrase

Iran alerted the US before attacking Israel with missiles and drones -- which were mostly repulsed by Israel

the US couldn't prevent Israel from attacking Iranian embassy in Damascus

the Middle East, including Israel, is not strategically important to the US -- because as you know the US no longer needs Gulf oil after the Shale revolution in the US

the South China Sea and Russia-Ukraine war are strategically key to the US

the Middle East is most imporant for Asia Pacific countries, like, China, Japan, South Korea and India -- that are actually importing crude oil from the Middle East

these Asian countries, China and India have more at stake in maintaining the political stability of Middle East region; not the United States

if you go back and see, during 1948 and 1967, the US was not supporting Israel

Israel got its nuclear weapons because French gave them the technology; not the US

in a way, Turkey is an existential threat, not Iran, for Israel -- Turkey's border is close to Israel; Iran's borders are very far from Israel

another interesting country is Saudi Arabia -- after the Palestinian attack on 07Oct2023, Iran and its proxies are not targeting any oil facilities in the Gulf

the Israel-Iran open conflict has not really affected global crude oil supplies and Sunni monarchies which have made deals with Israel

Gulf monarchies are stuck in the past; most of them are autocracies; yes, they have lots of natural gas and oil; but they don't have good institutions and rule of law -- so we can't depend on Middle East for market opportunities

scope for market opportunities is more in Western and Eastern Europe around the Russia-Ukraine war; Europe has goods institutions and rule of law as opposed to the Middle East regimes

opportunities exist in Brazil

the median Amerian voter doesn't bother about Israel-Palestina war; American voters are extremely wary of entanglements in foreign wars

Donald Trump changes his views all the time -- but not on trade protectionism and leveraging on debt (lower interest rates); if Trump were to be elected in Nov2024 election, imagine Trump imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese goods -- that would definitely shoot up US inflation

Tariffs are attacks on American consumer

if you look at global supply chains, a lot of intermediate goods still come from China; there is not a lot of decoupling in China trade

Mexico recently has surpassed China as US' number one trade partner; because Chinese goods are coming via Mexico, not because of any meaningful change in trade

If Trump wins and were to impose 60% import tariffs on Chinese goods, it will be a shock to the US' physical economy

Japan's economy looks good despite problems with Yen; we're bullish on Japan's stock market

Japan's markets are poorly understood in the West

China is a national security threat for Japan, but still Japan does a lot of trade with China; and Japan is fine with that diplomatic ambiguity

 
05Apr2024 Real Vision video - Dee Smith and Jacob Shapiro talk to each other on The hidden agenda of world turmoil -

highlights from the conversation:

Jacob Shapiro -- newspaper headline supply junk food to our brain

multi-polar geopolitical world

It's good Russia-Ukraine war didn't spread to NATO; it's just Russia-Ukraine war

Israel's war on Gaza has remained within the two regions; fortunately, it has not spread to the entire Midddle East -- except for some Houthis throwing missiles on Red Sea

I see a lot of opportunities

you need to see beyond the junk food of media headlines

In the past, the West led by the US naively believed globalisation would lead to more pockets of liberal democracy; but it was a delusion. Look at Vladimir Putin's Russia and Xi Jinping's China.

Even though China joined WTO (in Dec2001) and became part of the global economy, the politics of China under Xi have worsened; Putin has not liberalised Russia in the last 25 years or so.

The US was delusional in thinking that globalisation would create more liberal democracies

Unfortunately, globalisation has contributed significantly to rising inequality -- though in the US inequality has somewhat come down after the COVID-19 Pandemic due to money transfers / stimulus payments by the US government

Though we're in a multi-polar world, the US is still the most powerful country, it's still the top dog

Countries, like, Iran, Turkey, Brazil and India may become more powerful in future

The US has passed its prime -- nations, like people, have a life cycle

There is this crushing load of debt -- this is of the government, the corporates and households

Debt is a bet on borrowing from the future to pay for the present and it's a bet that the future is going to be richer than the present

Is it accurate to think that future gains from technology and innovation will offset the rising debt levels in the US?

82% of the decline in the US manufacturing jobs (blue collar jobs) in the past 20 years is due to automation -- it's not that globalisation and outsourcing have taken away majority of US jobs overseas in the manufacturing jobs

And now artificial intelligence (AI) is coming for white collar jobs -- we aren't prepared for that

The US adversaries are testing its military power to the hilt -- take for example, the Houthis with low-cost drones are creating major disruptions to the global trade / container shipping in the Red Sea -- and the mighty US isn't able to do anything meaningful to control the Houthis

It's amazing the US Navy with its nine aircraft carriers could not control a rag-tag Houthi military supported by Iran

The US needs reform in immigration laws urgently

In 2023, majority of immigrants at the US-Mexico broder are from Venezuela, not from Mexico

Humans have a tendency to rationalise the things that they have done irrationally

My grandmother used to say only a fool learns from his own experience; a wise man learns from other people's experience

The US voters resent the fact that they only have two choices for the next President, that is, Biden and Trump and the other fact that both are old



10Mar2024 video one - semiconductor industry - video two - both from Samsung semiconductor newsroom
 
-- computer chips -  integrated circuits (ICs) -

-- Intel on semiconductors: The term semiconductor refers to a material that can be altered to conduct electrical current or block its passage. However, it more commonly refers to an integrated circuit (IC), or computer chip. The most common semiconductor material is silicon. Not surprisingly, silicon is also the main ingredient in computer chips.
 
-- Semiconductor (semiconductor) refers to a material whose conductivity is between a conductor and an insulator at room temperature. Semiconductors are widely used in radios, televisions and temperature measurement. For example, a diode is a device made of semiconductors.
 
-- Chip is an abbreviation of integrated circuit.
 
-- Amazon on computer chips: A computer chip is a tiny wafer of semiconducting material with an embedded electronic circuit. It contains millions of microscopic electronic components called transistors that transmit data signals.
 
-- 14Feb2020 Samsung Tech Blog: Foundry? Fabless? Learn about the Semiconductor Ecosystem All at Once!  
 
-- 07Feb2023 What is the Difference Between Semiconductor Fabs or Fabrication plants, Fabless Companies, and Foundries?
  • Fabs (short for “fabrication”) are facilities in which semiconductor products are manufactured.
     
  • Fabless companies focus on designing chips. They partner with other companies (foundries) for the manufacturing phase.
     
  • Foundries are companies that manufacture semiconductor products as a service. They do not design chips.
     
  • Integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) design and manufacture their own chips in their own fabs. 
 
-- Quartr Tweet dt 07Oct2023 -  infographic mapping out 120+ Key Companies in the Semiconductor Industry - semiconductor value chain

- Quartr Tweet dt 28Feb2024 - updated infographics on semiconductor industry
 
 








27Feb2024 The Economist - Why do Nvidia's chips dominate the AI market?

Since January 2023 the chipmaker’s share price has surged by almost 450 percent
 
With the total value of its shares approaching USD 2 trillion, Nvidia is now America’s third-most valuable firm, behind Microsoft and Apple (as on 01Mar2024, its market cap is USD 2.06 trillion)

Its revenues for the most recent quarter were USD 22 billion, up from USD 6 billion in the same period last year. 
 
Nvidia controls more than 95% of the market for specialist AI chips
 
Nvidia’s AI chips, also known as graphics processor units (GPUs) or “accelerators”, were initially designed for video games. They use parallel processing, breaking each computation into smaller chunks, then distributing them among multiple “cores”—the brains of the processor—in the chip. This means that a GPU can run calculations far faster than it would if it completed tasks sequentially. This approach is ideal for gaming: lifelike graphics require countless pixels to be rendered simultaneously on the screen. Nvidia’s high-performance chips now account for four-fifths of gaming GPUs.
 
Happily for Nvidia, its chips have found much wider uses: cryptocurrency mining, self-driving cars and, most important, training of AI models. Machine-learning algorithms, which underpin AI, use a branch of deep learning called artificial neural networks. In these networks computers extract rules and patterns from massive datasets. Training a network involves large-scale computations—but because the tasks can be broken into smaller chunks, parallel processing is an ideal way to speed things up. A high-performance GPU can have more than a thousand cores, so it can handle thousands of calculations at the same time.
 
But Nvidia’s soaring valuation is not just because of faster chips. Its competitive edge extends to two other areas. One is networking. As AI models continue to grow, the data centres running them need thousands of GPUs lashed together to boost processing power (most computers use just a handful). Nvidia connects its GPUs through a high-performance network based on products from Mellanox, a supplier of networking technology that it acquired in 2019 for USD 7 billion. This allows it to optimise the performance of its network of chips in a way that competitors can’t match.
 
 
Nvidia’s other strength is CUDA, a software platform that allows customers to fine tune the performance of its processors. Nvidia has been investing in this software since the mid-2000s, and has long encouraged developers to use it to build and test AI applications. This has made CUDA the de facto industry standard.  
 
Nvidia dominates AI chipmaking because it offers the best chips, the best networking kit and the best software.




03Feb2024 Bloomberg  Meta Platforms (Facebook) declared a dividend for investors for the first time in its history - first time dividend - 

Meta announced a quarterly cash dividend of 50 cents a share for Class A and B common stock beginning in March. With Zuckerberg holding about 350 million shares, he would take home about $175 million in each quarterly payment before taxes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Read more at: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/business/zuckerberg-to-get-700-million-a-year-from-meta-s-new-dividend
Copyright © NDTV Profit
Meta announced a quarterly cash dividend of 50 cents a share for Class A and B common stock beginning in March. With Zuckerberg holding about 350 million shares, he would take home about $175 million in each quarterly payment before taxes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Read more at: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/business/zuckerberg-to-get-700-million-a-year-from-meta-s-new-dividend
Copyright © NDTV Profit
 Meta announced a quarterly cash dividend of 50 cents a share for Class A and B common stock beginning in March. With Mark Zuckerberg holding about 350 million shares, he would take home about USD 175 million in each quarterly payment before taxes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Meta's co-founder stands to receive a payout of about $700 million a year from the social media giant’s first-ever dividend for investors.
 
 
31Jan2024 ET - Retail and consumer sector in India: Growth predictions for FY 2024-25 - by Ravi Kapoor of PwC India - 

The overall FMCG sales declined by 4.5% in Q3, affecting both urban and rural markets

The complete nine-month picture for FY24 seems to be marginally better, with overall FMCG value growth at about 2%, with rural growth at just 0.4%, versus that of last year

Causes of decline in FMCG sales in India:

A. Demand-side drivers:

1. Post-COVID recovery has been slow in rural India

2. Agricultur GDP growth is just 1/3rd of its long term growth

3. PM Modi govt cut MNREGA (rural job guarantee scheme) outlay by 17% to Rs 60,000 crore in FY 2023-24

4. erratic monsoon impacting rural economy negatively

5. The real per capita incomes have been stagnant over the last few years (FY 2019–24)

6. Higher household spends on services such as education, health, data – communication and transportation – have taken relatively stagnant budgets away from product consumption

7. India's high inflation suppresses consumers' buying power

8. HNIs are buying more premium products; while middle/lowers are unable to spend on mass-priced ones (top 16% of households in India generate 50% of India GDP)


B. supply side factors:

1. high unit prices of essentials and discretionary categories

2. Market share gains: Smaller regional players across consumer categories such as tea, edible oils, biscuits and laundry have better value offerings compared to national or branded players


01Feb2024 FAO -  The FAO Food Price Index or FFPI - FFPI fell to 118.50 in Dec2023, the lowest since Feb2021 -Trading Economics
 

 
 
 
Question by ET: RBI has now raised its GDP growth projection to 7% for FY24. Last year you had said India would be lucky if it achieves 5% growth next year. What went right or are we just lucky?
 
Answer by Raghuram Rajan: We are happy India is outperforming expectations. There are three big reasons. 
 
> First, the industrial world did not slow down as was anticipated. For instance, the US grew at 5% in the third quarter despite significant interest rate rises, about 3 percentage points above potential. 
 
> Second, Chinese demand for commodities stayed muted, keeping commodity prices, especially energy prices low. Indian GDP always benefits from this because we are an energy importer, including through the boost a low deflator gives to our GDP calculation. Both these are not India’s doing, so they could be attributed to our luck. 
 
> The third is enormous infrastructure investment by the government in the first two quarters of this year. That is what went right.
 
 
08Jan2024 History - Only thirteen people attended Karl Marx's funeral - Karl Marx was buried in Highgate Cemetery in London, in a section allotted for atheists and agnostics - Marx died on 14Mar1883 in London -
 
 
29Dec2023 BSE holidays 2024 - NSE holidays 2024 - BSE trading holidays 2024
 

 
 
17Dec2023 WSJ  It’s the Magnificent Seven’s Market. The Other Stocks Are Just Living in It. 
 
magnificent seven - Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta and Tesla 
 
charts below
 
cumulative return of magnificent seven and S&P 493
 
combined share of largest 7 firms in S&P 500
 
magnificent 7 weighting in MSCI ACWI
 
change in annual earnings
 
average PE ratio
 



 



 

28Sep2023: India – US bond yield spread falls to lowest level in 17 years

 

- India 10 year yield vs US 10 year yield - India 10 year G-Sec yield vs US 10 year Treasury yeild - yield spread chart -

 

-- as of 28Sep2023, the 10-year India G-Sec (7.18% GS 2033) yield is 7.18 percent, whereas that of the US 10-y Treasury is 4.55 percent – giving a narrower yield spread of 263 basis points, which is a 17-year low

 

-- as of 31Dec2022, the spread was 345 bp and as on 31Dec2021, it was much higher at 494 bp

 

-- the 20-year average yield spread is north of 450 basis points or 4.5 percentage points

 

-- lower yield spread means Indian G-Secs are less attractive to US investors, as compared to US Treasurys

 

-- aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed to anchor inflationary expectations compared to India’s RBI may have contributed to the narrower yield spread

 

-- the market thinks the Fed may raise rates further up; but the same is not the case with RBI

 

-- the commentary from the recent FOMC meeting (19-20 September) has been perceived by the markets as ‘hawkish hold’ – and this has further pushed up US Treasury yields this week

 

-- the inflation differential and interest rate differential also play a part in the narrower yield spread

 

-- on the fiscal side, the US seems to be in a much deeper trouble, with the US debt ballooning to USD 33 trillion

 

-- there are problems for the US Treasury in selling US bonds to investors – the bulk of which are foreign central banks

 

-- China is not buying US bonds in recent years; in fact, they whittled down their holdings of US Treasurys in recent years

 

-- due to high US fiscal deficit, the US Treasury has lined up a lot of bond selling -- with little interest from investors, the US bond yields have shot up in the past one to two months

 

-- there are expectations that the US Government may shut down due to problems in raising US debt ceiling in the US Congress

 

-- it is expected the yield spread between the 10-year government bonds of India and the US my go higher in the coming months

 


 
 
12Dec2023 TS - GO 1634 dt 12Dec2023 from General Administration Department -  2024 Holidays under NI Act in Telangana state - bank holidays 
 


 
 
04Dec2023 S&P Global Ratings – Global Credit Outlook 2024 – New Risks, New Playbook: 


PDF document -  web archive - Highlights >

 

> we’re back in a high interest rate regime; cheap money era, that started after GFC 2007, ended  

 

> corporate credit defaults would rise in 2024 as interest rates and bond yields are high; even some governments too would see higher defaults

 

> geopolitical risks are in centre stage: Israel-Hamas war, Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing US-China tensions

 

> the increased geopolitical fragmentation affects corporates and governments in supply chain and energy security – impacting food prices, global trade and inflation

 

> acceleration toward energy transition poses its own set of challenges

 

> tighter financial conditions (elevated interest rates) and softer economic growth in 2024 would affect corporates

 

> the US Fed may not cut interest rates before Jun2024

 

> the resilience of the US consumers (as we witnessed in 2023) may not last longer; household savings fattened by COVID-19 stimulus are shrinking and US consumers are increasingly wary of spending especially on discretionary spending

 

> outlook for global banks remains steady

 

> why is the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East is worrisome from an energy-supply perspective?

 

1. roughly one-third of world’s LNG travels via Strait of Hormuz

2. roughly one-fourth of world’s oil passes through Strait of Hormuz

3. Strait of Hormuz is the only shipping route from Persian Gulf to open sea

 

Strait of Hormuz is a strait between Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, bordering Oman, Iran and UAE

 

> there are elections in more than 50 nations in 2024

 

> commercial real estate is in trouble in the US and Europe

 

> residential real estate market in China is in deep problems

 

> higher-for-longer interest rates will continue to pressure asset values and erode credit metrics in 2024 – increasing the refinancing risk for borrowers in real estate sector

 

> many emerging markets (EMs) will navigate the challenges better than other nations

 

> nearshoring will benefit Mexico, India and Vietnam among EMs

 

-- because of supply-chain relocation away from China, nearshoring will benefit these countries

 

-- FDI flows are increasing for Mexico

 

-- Vietnam’s exports to the US jumped fourfold between 2013 and 2022; and accelerated following Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on China in 2018; but, Vietnam has several challenges, like, infrastructure and labour constraints

 

-- India is set to become world’s third largest economy by 2030

 

-- India will be the fastest growing major economy in the next three years

 

-- it remains to be seen whether India can become the next big global manufacturing hub; and the opportunity can materialise if: 1) India developing a strong logistics framework for the manufacturing sector; 2) India unlocking the labour market, upskilling workers and increasing female participation in labour market – success in these two areas will enable India to realise its demographic demand

 

-- India’s booming digital market could fire up startup ecosystem, especially in fintech and consumer tech

 

-- in the automotive sector, India is poised for growth

 

 

> of the EMs, Indonesia, Chile and the Philippines will be benefited by energy transition

 

-- the need for energy transition and achieving sustainable development goals will boost demand for key metals, like, copper, cobalt, nickel and lithium – which are critical in electric vehicles (EV) and battery production

 

-- most of the miners of these metals are in China, Chile and Indonesia

 

-- there is a major opportunity for key EMs such as Chile, Peru, Mexico, Indonesia, Argentina, The Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Philippines, which hold some of the world's largest reserves of these metals

 


> climate change risk is real for coporates

 

> Higher-for-longer interest rates and input-cost inflation could slow the energy transition

 

> Tighter budget constraints (for corporates, governments and households) put pressure on environmental policies

 

> With slower economic growth and higher financing costs, priorities might shift away from tackling climate change

 

> China Slows, India Grows

 

> Asia-Pacific growth engine to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia

 

> While China growth will slow down next year, that of India, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia will grow higher

 

> higher interest rates and Israel-Hamas war escalation are key risks for the Asia Pacific region and other risks are global energy shock and risk of US’ hard landing

 

 

09Nov2023 TOI - A toy vendor carries his shop on a moped - risk - life risk - 
 

 
 
25Nov2023 Tweet (X post) - What went wrong? - Dr Simon Goddek - obesity - overweight - 1973 vs 2023 -




27Nov2023 Tweet (X post) 

Moosaram Bagh (in Hyderabad, India) is named after a French general Michel Joachim Marie Raymond, popularly known as Monsieur Raymond.

This French adventurer came to India in the last quarter of the 18th century as a merchant.

Raymond established a gun foundry in 1786, for the manufacture of guns and cannons, in Hyderabad. He became close to Nizam of Hyderabad and supplied arms and ammunition to Nizam.

Due to his popularity, local Muslims fondly called Monsieur Raymond ‘Musa Rahim’ and Hindus ‘Musa Ram’. (Musa is Persian for Moses). Hence, the name Moosaram Bagh for the Hyderabd locality (Bagh means garden).

Raymond died on 25th of March, 1798. The area surrounding Raymond's tomb is known as Moosaram Bagh or Moosarambagh.

 
27Dec2017 QZ - In Dec2017, Chess Grandmaster Anna Muzychuk (Ukraine) refused to play in Saudi Arabia because of the country's discriminatory policies against women, even though the prize money from the tournament was very high - misogyny - skin in the game - 

She released the following statment on her decision:




16Jan2022 Novak Djokovic refuses to vaccinate himself with COVID-19 vaccine ahead of Australia Open Championship tournament in Jan2022 - Tennis - skin in the game - 


26Oct2023 interview - Timothy Ferriss (Tom Ferriss) talks to Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson (WSJ journalist) - full transcript - randomness - antifragile - skin in the game - black swan - Bob Rubin trade -

Bruce Lee quote: “Fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks, but the man who’s practiced one kick 10,000 times.”

The Ottomans and the Austrians had – the world was separate, but they had a lot of traffic and it went through what they call quarantine spots. So you would go into a sort of hospital (lazaretto - a hospital or a quarantine spot that treats contagious diseases) that has quarantine and there’s seven days one way, nine days the other way, and they would implement that the minute they smelled anything.

Venice was a maritime power, they had lazarettos, they did very well. But Marseilles, France was decimated because they didn’t have lazarettos. (a little preparedness would save a lot of lives) - anecdote -

The KGB was not very good at spying, we discovered, but was very good at disinformation.

So I truly think that we’re suffering a lot from this disinformation up to today when people worry about some risks, not others.

Germany panicked after the nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Japan in 2011. Germany freaked out over something that actually didn’t kill people. They shut down their entire nuclear program and in its place opened up a bunch of coal-fired power plants, which is obviously much more direct risk to humanity than nuclear power plants that don’t kill people.

Some people are good at running their businesses. They are skeptical in one area (their business), but they can't transfer their skills and skepticism to stock market. These people put money in stock market blindly and become suckers one day.

 
 
12Oct2023 BQ Prime -  AIF Structures Being Used To Circumvent Regulations, Says SEBI's Ananth Narayan
 
"We have found various cases of AIF structures are being used to circumvent other regulations. They are being used to avoid recognition of non-performing assets by getting fresh funding coming for stressed borrowings," said Ananth Narayan Gopalakrishnan, the whole-time director of SEBI.
 
In AIFs or alternative investment funds, the actual commitments raised currently are around Rs 8.5 lakh crore, with investments of around Rs 3.5 lakh crore. 
 
 
04Oct2023 Post X - Nate Geraci 
 
96.5% of S&P 500 return contribution this yr is from the 10 largest constituents... No other positive performance yr is really even close.
 
Contribution of top 10 stocks in S&P 500 index > 




 
08Oct2023 Post X (ex Twitter) - Alan MacLeod  

They never show you this map on the news.
 
Israel - Palestine conflict 
 
the shrinking land of Palestine and Israel expansion since 1946 >
 

 
 
08Oct2023 Bloomberg - China’s Rich Entrust Total Strangers to Sneak Cash Out of the Country
 
- money laundering - hawala - emigration - send money abroad -

Chinese people in mainland are using Hong Kong as a conduit for illegal transfer of money to safe havens, like, the US, the UK, Canada, etc.

While Hong Kong has been stripped of many of the political freedoms it used to enjoy, it still occupies a unique place in China’s financial ecosystem as the only area with unfettered access to global capital markets. Once cash is there, it can go anywhere.

The transaction moved through an informal, unregulated system known around the world as hawala.

People caught using illegal currency-­exchange services in mainland China usually are fined 30% or more of the amount of money they attempted to transfer. If the sum is significant, those providing the service face significant jail time.

But there is a dark side to remittance operations. To ultimately settle exchanges via hawala, Chinese underground banks regularly use cash generated by criminal groups through activities such as drug trafficking, cigarette smuggling, organized illegal immigration and human trafficking, according to the NCA.

The British law enforcers found that Chinese student accounts were sometimes used as a back door to get money into the legitimate banking system.

UBS Group AG, for example, estimated in its annual wealth report that there were 6.2 million Chinese with assets of more than $1 million at the end of 2022.

Real estate consultant Juwai IQI said in August that it expects more than 700,000 Chinese to exit the country in the next two years. Top destinations for buying property—based on searches on its site—include Australia, Canada and the UK. Singapore ­introduced a 60% property tax for foreign purchasers in April, which has crimped midmarket demand.

And the crackdown on crypto has made it much harder to use digital currency as a workaround.

Yet there are still ways. One popular technique is known as “smurfing.” It involves recruiting people on the mainland who haven’t used their legitimate remittance quotas of USD 50,000. By using many people, the agencies can then use their bank accounts and small individual allowances to funnel large amounts of money outside the country.

One common ruse is to doctor import contracts where bills have to be settled offshore. This can be done by inflating the value of the goods imported, with the seller then agreeing to siphon the difference into a separate offshore account.

Based on unexplained discrepancies in tourist data—which suggest Chinese tourists are leaving cash abroad when they travel—as much as USD 150 billion is expected to exit this year, according to an estimate from Gary Ng.

“After the COVID-19 era, Chinese have an increased demand for sending money overseas both for work or personal reasons,” says Liu Xinyu. “More people could resort to illegal channels, and we could see a rise in cases investigated by authorities.”

For individuals, even as COVID-19 lockdowns are lifted, the memories of the extreme curbs remain. “The pandemic definitely sped things up,” says Dominic Volek. People with wealth in China are “looking for a Plan B.”



06Oct2023 MIT - Street-fighting Mathematics: The Art of Educated Guessing and Opportunistic Problem Solving
 
By Sanjoy Mahajan - copyright 2010

web archives PDF - maths - math -
 
Make sure to mind your dimensions and units.

You need to compare comparables -- for example, you can't compare a country's GDP with an MNC's net worth; because GDP is a 'flow' number while net worth is a 'stock' number -- here, flow and stock have different dimensions though they have the same units (say, dollars or Yen).

People often confuse between dimensions and units, while comparing.
 
- lost satellite - metric vs English units - 

Page 3 of the PDF:

That compared quantities must have identical dimensions is a necessary condition for making valid comparisons, but it is not sufficient. A costly illustration is the 1999 Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO), which crashed into the surface of Mars rather than slipping into orbit around it. The cause, according to the Mishap Investigation Board (MIB), was a mismatch between English and metric units.

"The MCO MIB has determined that the root cause for the loss of the MCO spacecraft was the failure to use metric units in the coding of a ground software file, Small Forces, used in trajectory models."

Instead of using metric units, they used English units -- losing satellite in the process.
 
12Jan2024 Trading View -  Microsoft's market cap surpassed that of Apple Inc on 12Jan2024 and Microsoft has become the number one company by market cap in the US and S&P 500 index -- its market cap is USD 2.887 trillion versus Apple's USD 2.875 trillion. 
 
Last time, Microsoft's market cap surpassed that of Apple was on 29Oct2021. 



30Mar2024 CoinMarketCap - total market cap of all crypto currencies as at 9.00 AM on 30Mar2024 is USD 2.64 trillion - crypto assets - Bitcoin - Ethereum - 
 
 

12Mar2024 CoinMarketCap - total market cap of all crypto currencies as at 8.00 AM on 12Mar2024 is USD 2.73 trillion - crypto assets - Bitcoin - Ethereum -
 
 

31Dec2023 CoinMarketCap - total market cap of all crypto currencies as at 9.30 AM on 30Dec2023 is USD 1.65 trillion - crypto assets - - Bitcoin - Ethereum -
 


30Jun2024 Trading View - top 10 stocks in S&P 500 - 




31Mar2024 Trading View - top 10 stocks in S&P 500 - 
 
- Microsoft dethroned Apple Inc to claim number one spot 

- Tesla is at 12th spot now



31Dec2023 Trading View - top 10 stocks in S&P 500 - 
 

30Jun2024 Trading Economics - G 20 interest rates; 10-year bond yields, inflation rates and GDP / macro indicators / other data 






 
31Mar2024 Trading Economics - G 20 interest rate
 

31Mar2024 Trading Economics - G 20 inflation rate



 31Mar2024 TE -Trading Economics - data - macro indicators, like GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, budget, debt to GDP, current account, population, etc.
 


 31Mar2024 Trading Economics - data - commodities - crude oil, coal, uranium, gold, silver, copper, etc.
 


 
 
31Dec2023 Trading Economics - G 20 interest rate
 

 
 
31Dec2023 Trading Economics - G 20 inflation rate



31Dec2023 TE -Trading Economics - data - macro indicators, like GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, budget, debt to GDP, current account, population, etc.



31Dec2023 Trading Economics - data - commodities - crude oil, coal, uranium, gold, silver, copper, etc.
 
 


30Jun2024 BSE - BSE market cap of all listed firms is Rs 439.25 lakh crore (or USD 5.26 trillion) as on 28Jun2024 (last trading day of Jun2024)
 
- number of companies with listed equity capital and available for trade are 4,170 as on 30Jun2024  
 
 

30Mar2024 BSE - BSE market cap of all listed firms is Rs 386.97 lakh crore as on 28Mar2024 (last trading day of March 2024)
 
- number of companies with listed equity capital and available for trade are 4,154 as on 31Mar2024 
 

29Dec2023 BSE - BSE market cap of all listed firms is Rs 364.29 lakh crore as on 29Dec2023 (last trading day of calendar year 2023)



 
 
30Sep2023 BSE - BSE market cap of all listed firms is Rs 319.07 lakh crore
 

 
 
30Sep2023 VR - BSE indices returns - trailing and annual
 



 
30Mar2024 RBI - Policy rates  RBI current rates: Policy rates / Reserve rates / exchange rates / lending - deposit rates: rbi.org.in/Home.aspx/GetK - RBI Get Key words - repo rate - reverse repo - CRR - SLR - base rate - MCLR - call rates
 


 
 
 
01Dec2023 RBI - Policy rates  RBI current rates: Policy rates / Reserve rates / exchange rates / lending - deposit rates: rbi.org.in/Home.aspx/GetK - RBI Get Key words - repo rate - reverse repo - CRR - SLR - base rate - MCLR - call rates
 


 
 
01Oct2023 RBI - Policy rates  RBI current rates: Policy rates / Reserve rates / exchange rates / lending - deposit rates: rbi.org.in/Home.aspx/GetK - RBI Get Key words - repo rate - reverse repo - CRR - SLR - base rate - MCLR - call rates
 


 
 
 
31Sep2023 data - Trading View - CoinMarketCap  - bitocin - ethereum - crypto assets - top S&P 500 by market cap
 


 
 
29Sep2023 WSJ -  OPEC oil cartel - OPEC+ - break even oil price -
 
Production costs are low in Saudi Arabia and Russia, averaging $9.30 and $12.80 a barrel respectively last year, according to Rystad Energy estimates. Those low costs mean most of the revenue from oil exports can be converted into profit. 
 
The International Monetary Fund estimated earlier this year that Saudi Arabia’s break-even oil price to balance its budget is about $81 a barrel. 
 

25Sep2023 video: Ian Bremmer talks to Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker - poverty - human development indicators or HDIs -

 

-- extreme poverty globally has declined

 

-- number of wars and people killed in wars have fallen

 

-- globalisation (the world is more knitted together in commerce now) has improved the lives of people globally and probably has reduced number of wars

 

-- wealth now comes not from land (land grab was major reasons for wars previously) but from knowledge – this has contributed to more global peace

 

-- rise of democracy (though it’s not a perfect guarantor of peace) too may have contributed to a better world now – but not democracy now is not moving in the right direction

 

-- why does the US punch below its wealth in terms of so many measures of well-being?

 

The US is an outlier (worse than several Western countries) here. The US is an anomaly: it’s rich, more or less democratic, it’s lower life expectancy, it scores poorly on math tests, its people are more obese, it suffers more from drug addition, more gun violence, its people are less happy, etc.

 

Some of the factors are:

 

-- there is government support for social services, like, old age , healthcare and poor people, but the US isn’t doing enough in these areas

 

-- in the US, there is less gov’t attention on poverty, segregation, etc.

 

-- in the Southwest and South US, traditionally, there is hostility towards centralised government – Americans in these parts think they’ve to defend their homes themselves and should not depend on government

 

-- Americans fight over parking spots, but this doesn’t happen in Europe or Canada

 

 

 

-- The US is less happy than it should be given its wealth

 

-- a UN reports finds COVID-19 is reversing decades of progress on poverty, healthcare and education globally

 

-- populous movements and nationalism are pushing back against the globalisation

 

-- it has been known by AI (artificial intelligence) researchers for decades that people are too easily fooled

 

-- one of the dangers of large language models (LLMs) is people will vest undue confidence in them


 
24Sep2023 VR - Nirma to acquire majority stake in Glenmark Life Sciences -  acquisition - takeover - special situation - corporates - open offer - 
 

26Oct2023  interview - Part 1 - On 24May2022, Tim Ferriss talked to Edward O. Thorp (Ed Thorp) - A Man For All Markets - full transcript - investing - stock investing -

Kurt Vonnegut was writing in The New Yorker about Joseph Heller (of Catch 22 fame). And Vonnegut said, “Joseph Heller and I were at a hedge fund mogul’s house.” I’m not sure if it was hedge fund mogul, but somebody very, very rich in New York.

And Vonnegut said to Heller, ‘You’ve made a lot of money out of Catch-22. This guy makes as much money in a day as you’re ever going to make. He’s got penthouses and yachts and jets and villas and models falling off his arm and so on.'

And Joseph Heller looked back and said, “I have something he’ll never have.” Kurt Vonnegut was puzzled and he said, “What’s that?”  Heller said, “I have enough.” - anecdote - 



- Blackjack - Kelly Criterion - Claude Shannon at MIT - Roulette - first wearable computer - Warren Buffett - long term thinking - mental models - tragedy of commons - fundamental attribution error - independence - health and fitness - marathon - Charlie Munger's mental models - Ray Dalio -  

- Before the publication of Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model, Ed Thorp was using the model to make moeny. When the pricing model was published, Ed Thorp thought his fund could no longer make money. But he was wrong, because people did not catch on the model right away. So when the Chicago Board Options Exchange opened for business in April 1973, the only people on the floor were Thorp's traders. It was like having machine guns against bows and arrows.

Ed Thorp: If you really are interested in investing, it’s worth educating yourself and trying to do it because you will learn a lot about investing. You might actually find a way to win and you’ll learn about how the world works and a lot about life too.

Ed Thorp discovered Bernie Madoff's investment fraud back in 1991; though Madoff was caught only in late 2008. Thorp discovered Madoff's fraud when he was reviewing the portfolio of McKinsey & Company, New York back in 1991. 
 
 
 
26Oct2023  interview - Part 2 - On 28Jun2022, Tim Ferriss talked to Edward O. Thorp (Ed Thorp) - How to think for yourself - full transcript - investing - stock investing 

Sometimes, it's better for people to take their talent and go somewhere else. But getting somebody to actually make that uncomfortable transition is very difficult, even though for an outsider, it’s totally obvious. So a lot of people, when it’s involving them, they can’t see clearly. When it’s involving one of their friends or acquaintances, they can generally see a lot better, or think they can.

Numeracy: Averages don't tell you about distribution.

- Schaum's Outlines is a simple book on basic statistics  

Numeracy: Elementary mental calculations are important.

Numeracy: Rule of 72

Numeracy: conversation about Hollywood movie "Rain Man"

Life is a lot like running a marathon.

If you plan ahead, you can avoid a lot of problems that sink other people: knee replacements, heart clogging up, catching diseases because you don’t do proper vaccination and so on. So, thinking long term is one thing that a marathon teaches us.

Wealth is associated positively with longevity, and it’s obvious why. I mean, it’s not fair, but it's what it is.

Ed Thorp is 89 now (May2022), but he looks like 60, because of good health and fitness.

There is no reason to believe that you have any kind of edge [in markets]. You’re basically rolling dice or buying lottery tickets. And just as in the gambling casinos, where most people do not have an edge, you hear stories about lucky winners, and that draws in more people who want to play. But if you look at all of them as a group, including the good players, who actually have an edge, if you look at all of them as a group, they lose.

Charles Mackay's book

I think an important thing for everyone is to think about the world and society as 'us' instead of 'me', and to try to act that way, and to think longer term.


 

17Oct2023 CNBC - video - On 28Sep2023, Scott Wapner of CNBC talks to Bill Ackman, who manages hedge fund Pershing Square - investing - stock investing - 
 

full transcript of the above interview at CNBC 

 

(related article on Bill Ackman's view on Robert F Kennedy Jr's scepticism on COVID-19 vaccines)


> great businesses will do well in any economic, political or macro environment

 

> two risks we’re concerned about in the last 18 months are: energy prices and long end of the US Treasury yield curve

 

> we’re likely to have a government shutdown and a data shutdown (in a gov’t shutdown, gov’t agencies can’t release economic data – which will be a dark period for markets)

 

> in the US bond market, we’ve supply of more paper while China, Russia and Saudi Arabia are selling US Treasuries

 

> we’ve an economy that is still strong; inflation at more than 3%

 

> our view is the 30-year US Treasury yield at 4.7% is not attractive enough to buy; because structural inflation is north of 3% and it’s going to be persistently higher, we were in low interest rate regime for a long time, massive fiscal spending during COVID-19, infrastructure spending, huge fiscal deficit, high government debt, government selling a lot of government bonds and bills, US govt’s imprudent balance sheet and others

 

> we’re in a different world

 

> the world changes gradually

 

> the 10-year US Treasury yield is going to reach 5% very soon

 

> investors should not use 30-year US Treasury bond to speculate 0n the short term economy – it’s not a good idea to buy 30-year US T bond in anticipation of a recession – the structural forces of the US bond market have changed

 

> the key is to own businesses that have pricing power; businesses that do well in a 3-percent inflation regime

 

> it’s hard to manage a business in a world where inflation is volatile (US CPI was at 9.1% in Jun2022 and in Sep2023 it’s at 3.7%)

 

> the companies we own are like royalties – we own Universal Music Group which has royalties on music streaming; Google and YouTube have revenues from ads – others are Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands) and Hilton Hotels – for these businesses inflation is a friend as long as their costs don’t inflate as quickly as their revenues – I remain comfortable owning such businesses even if inflation remains high

 

> Alphabet (Google) is our latest entrant; we bought in late 2022 and early 2023

 

> around the launch of ChatGPT in Nov2022, Google fumbled a bit and the stock got sold out to 15 times earnings (PE ratio of 15) – and in the market, the Google stock got mispriced – so, the launch of AI (artificial intelligence) gave us an opportunity to buy into Google in Jan2023 – Google is our second largest investment

 

> Google’s Bard is neck and neck with ChatGPT; Google will be a dominant player for a very long time

 

> I’m a continuous learning machine (I learnt from my 10-year-old bad experience of shorting Herbal Life leading to a battle with Carl Icahn)

 

> I’m still psychologically short Herbal Life (fun comment by Ackman)

 

> being psychologically short entails lower risk

 

> Warren Buffett is my unofficial mentor for many years

 

> we’re better at risk management now than we were 10 years ago

 

> I don’t do short selling  any more now (in short selling, asymmetry is against short sellers)

 

> understanding asymmetry in life and in investing is very important

 

> now, what we do is we own great businesses

 

> if you want to be a successful investor, you need to own great businesses and do nothing with them – this is an amazing investment strategy

 

> there is a ‘circle of life’ quality to what Carl Icahn facing with regard to Hindenburg report on Icahn’s empire

 

> I’ve written him (Robert F Kennedy Jr, a Democratic presidential candidate in the US)  a cheque


 
06Oct2023 ET - Colgate to brush up on science than focus on ayurveda, says Colgate-Palmolive global CEO Noel Wallace 
 
Investing – stock investing – Colgate Palmolive India Ltd -

Colgate to brush up on science rather than focus on ayurveda.

As per a TOI report, based on information from industry sources, Colgate is the clear market leader in toothpastes with a lion’s share of around 48%, while Patanjali (Dant Kanti toothpaste brand) has a share of around 11%. Patanjali has grown from less than 1% market share nearly a decade ago, while Colgate has lost nearly 800 basis points during roughly the same period.

India accounts for less than 4% of global sales despite Colgate controlling half the oral care market here. Volume growth in India is a priority for us.

I would not call the Patanjali brand (of toothpaste) a natural brand. I would first call it an ayurvedic positioning and with natural ingredients. The difference for us is that we are a science-driven brand. We spend more money than any other toothpaste manufacturer in the world by multiple of three on clinical validation and science.

So, our benefit is to stay focused on how we bring scientific credentials to the market. Patanjali was a distraction for us. It didn't play to our strength. And rather than playing to our strengths, which is what we are doing now, we got diverted to that. Now we play naturals because we know how to play naturals.

The ayurvedic credentials that Patanjali has, we are not going to compete with that. That's the core of what that brand stands for. We stand for science and technical superiority. That's where we need to compete. We can tactically compete in some of these segments. And we should. But it shouldn't be a strategic thrust for the company.

Fifty percent of rural India don't brush up their teeth.

 
20Sep2023 Forbes India video - Aswath Damodaran

 

Investing – stock investing –

 

-- big decisions in your life are often made on accident

 

-- for me, teaching is front and centre of what I do

 

-- human beings instinctively want to learn

 

-- I’ve 50,000 case studies of publicly traded companies

 

-- it’s fascinating for me to value companies in real time

 

-- venture capital firms are incapable of valuing companies, they price them – it’s a pricing game for them – VC firms are traders

 

-- Artificial intelligence (AI) is the mood of the moment

 

-- during my lifetime, the four big changes that have changed the way we live and work are:

 

1) personal computers in the 1980s

 

2) the online / internet boom in the 1990s and later

 

3) the social media

 

4) artificial intelligence

 

-- in the last two years, among emerging markets, India has been one of the winners because of a combination of healthy economic growth (though lower than previous years) and inflation that is not out of control – the danger for India is it should not overreach – India should not be caught in the China Plus craze and should settle for a lower growth rather than over-enthusiastic about next China or something like that – you see the consequences of overreach from China -

 

-- India is a big market and it’s growing – the fundamental story of India is a really positive story – India has its weaknesses, like, lack of infrastructure

 



07Sep2023 FT - No other investor has a life story quite as unbelievable as Li Lu – by Eleanor Olcott

 

- investing - stock investing - 


- Li Lu was born in 1966 in China

 

- in 1989, he participated in the Tiananmen Square student protest in Beijing (Peking)

 

- he defected to the US in 1989 and was granted asylum in the same year

 

-- Li started his hedge fund Himalaya Capital in 1997

 

- his hedge fund currently manages assets worth USD 14 billion

 

- Li pivoted from “freedom fighter to Manhattan yuppie” as one newspaper put it

 

- due to the deteriorating relationship between the US and China, many US foundations and endowments downsizing or divesting entirely from China


 
 
31Aug2023 New York Fed - effective federal funds rate (EFFR) - fed funds rate - fed rate -  
 

- the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as a volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions - it is published by the New York Fed every day

- as on 30Aug2023, EFFR is 5.33 percent against the target fed funds rate of 5.25-5.50 percent
 
 
30Aug2023 Carried interest: 
 
Carried interest is a share of profits earned by general partners of private equity, venture capital, and hedge funds. Carried interest is due to general partners based on their role rather than an initial investment in the fund. As a performance fee, carried interest aligns the general partner's compensation with the fund's returns.

The origin of carried interest can be traced to the 16th century when European ships were crossing to Asia (for spices) and the Americas. The captain of the ship would take a 20% share of the profit from the carried goods to pay for the transport and the risk of sailing over oceans. The name is not connected with interest rates or interest payments on a loan or bank account. - anecdote -
 
 
29Aug2023 UBS global wealth report 2023 -  PDF download from the weblink - 


 
04Jun2025: David Rubenstein talks to David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital based in New York city: YouTube video:

- Einhorn is a value investor cum hedge fund manager
- Warren Buffett is the best value investor
- Greenlight Capital is a long-short hedge fund
- it also make big picture macro investments
- “In value investing, the key isn’t just being right – it’s knowing when you’re wrong and taking responsibility for it. There is no shame in being wrong.”
- If we do a really good job, we’re going to be right 65 or 75 per cent of the time, which means we’re going to be wrong 30 or 35 per cent of the time. So we have to be constantly saying are we wrong and own it. 

David Einhorn: The market structure has changed and there has been what I consider it to be a broken market or the value investing industry I think is defeated, so to speak.

David Einhorn states that value investing has become more difficult due to changes in market structure. 

Most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think it’s worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow? And so the result is, is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value.

Traditional long-only investors with large research teams have lost clients and reduced their research capacity.
 
The market is now dominated by passive index funds, algorithms, and retail investors focused on price movements rather than value.

Most trading today is not based on assessments of fundamental value.

Einhorn: So it leaves us (value investors) sort of as a dinosaur. We’re one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.

- our idea of holding period is not forever; we don’t a view of buying things to hold them forever
- Trump tariffs are regressive taxes; the consumer prices will go up
- the supplier has to pay a part of the tariff and the consumer has to pay a part of it
- Tariffs are going to be inflationary causing the economy to slow down
- I’ve been enormously worried about the US federal debt
- The fiscal and monetary management in the US is in trouble and ultimately it is going to get reflected in the currency (US dollar)
- the USD is going to depreciate versus gold; but other currencies have their own issues of monetary and fiscal situation
- in 2021, we made a huge bet that US inflation was going to be higher than most people were underestimating – we took a large position in inflation swaps for that bet to work
- we continue to have inflation
- America First policy feels like America Solo policy – it’s not good for the US, it’s good to have allies; working with others is how we expand the wealth of the planet and having trade tends to raise wealth in both directions
- uncertainty is a big worry
- having a mix of stocks, cash / cash equivalents and gold is good for investing

Einhorn is a good poker player. Rubenstein asks disarmingly: “Does being a great poker player helps you as an investor?” Einhorn replies: “I thinks it works the other way. I think investing helps me with poker more than the poker helps with the investing.”
Einhorn continues: “Poker is much more volatile than I would run my investment portfolio. So I think if you start as a poker player, you probably have too big of a risk appetite to be doing the kind of investing that we do.”

“But some of the skills overlap. I mean you’re dealing with the knowledge you have, like what are your cards. And then you’ve like things that you can infer, like what is the other person’s behaviour? And then the you’ve the uncertainty of future outcomes.” (investing edge)

Einhorn’s advice to young people: “Figure out what your strength is and pick a career that plays to your strong suit.” 

Three things I look for in young people before I hire them:

Raw intelligence
Critical thinking
And mostly somebody I want to work with every day

The best investment advice you’ve ever received in managing a portfolio: “As soon as you know you’re wrong, change your mind.”

 
29Aug2023 David Rubenstein's book "How to Invest: Masters on the Craft" - video 30Nov2022

23 great investors >

Part I: Mainstream investments

Fixed Income

- Larry Fink (BlackRock)
 
Public Equities
 
- Ronald Stephen Baron or Ron Baron (Baron Capital Mgmt)
- John W. Rogers Jr. (Ariel Capital Mgmt)

Real Estate

- Jonathan ("Jon") Gray (Blackstone)
- Sam Zell (equity international)

Private Wealth / Family Offices

- Mary Callaghan Erdoes (JP Morgan Asset & Wealth Mgmt)
- Dawn Fitzpatrick (Soros Fund Mgmt)

Endowments

- Paula Volent (Rockefeller University)
- Kim Lew (Columbia Investment Mgmt Company)

Part II: Alternative Investments

Hedge Funds

- Seth Klarman (Baupost Group)
- Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates)
- Stanley Druckenmiller (Duquesne Capital)
- Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies)
- John Paulson (Paulson & Co)

Private Equity and Buyouts

- Sandra Horbach (The Carlyle Group)
- Orlando Bravo (Thoma Bravo)

Distressed Debt

- Bruce Karsh (Oaktree Capital)

Venture Capital

- Marc Andreessen (Andreessen Horowitz)
- Michael Moritz (Sequoia Capital)

Part III: Cutting-edge investments

Cryptocurrencies

- Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital)

SPACs

- Betsy Cohen (Cohen Circle)

Infrastructure

- Adebayo Ogunlesi (Global Infrastructure Partners)

ESG

- David Blood (Generation Investment Management)
 
 
22May2024 David Rubenstein of Bloomberg Wealth talks to Sallie Krawcheck, Ellevest CEO & Co-Founder

- The best advice I've ever received:

   invest early -- it'll take care of compounding your money

- Ellevest, a financial firm / Fintech, targeting women has assets under management of USD 2 billion
 
- Ellevest started in 2016

- we are about 85% women

- 100% of our financial advisros are women

- Women's longevity is six to eight years longer than men

- About 75 to 80% of women die single, because half of the marriages end in divorce (US specific)

- Women's investing needs are different

- the boomer generation in the US accumulated most wealth in history; as they are reaching theri 70s and 80s the gentlemen tend to pass away leaving enormous in the hands of their wives (great generational wealth transfer in the next couple of decades in the US)

- in the next couple of decades, US women are going to have most of the country's wealth
 
- in Jun2002, Fortune magazine ran a cover story on Sallie Krawcheck 'In Search of the Last Honest Analyst' 

Asks Rubenstein: "To succeed in Wall Street, what skiils do you need?"

Karwacheck answers: "You have to work hard; you need to stick out and be a contrarian; don't be a me-too analyst; you need to take big calls on big stocks

The biggest investment mistake men make is 'overtrading' and for women it's 'not investing.'



07Mar2024 David Rubenstein talks to Vasant Narasimhan (Vas Narasimhan), CEO of Novartis - video - pharma - drug discovery -
 
 -- drug patents in the US last for 17 years

-- Novartis has Leqvio, a cholesterol lowering drug whose dose is two times in a year (infrequent dose)

-- we've USD 45 billion in sales every year

-- Our research headquarters are in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Basel, Switzerland

-- it has taken more than 25 years to realise the potential of anti obesity / weight loss drugs (meaning, the research for the drgus had taken place over 25 years before they are approved by FDA)

-- Narasimhan joined Novartis in 2005

-- He became CEO of Novartis in 2018 at the age of 41 years

-- Novartis has 76,000 employees

-- we've slimmed down after selling several consumer / other businesses



15Feb2024 David Rubenstein talks to Ruth Porat, President, CIO and CFO, Alphabet Inc: - video - technology - AI - artifician intelligence -

I've had breast cancer twice

Alphabet has USD 100 billion cash

In the US -- Finace is East Coast and Technology is West Coast

Quark test -- if are unable to describe a quark in under 30 seconds, you are just rambling

Google has been using AI (aritificial intelligence) for over a decade

Google AI tools -- Google Brain and Google DeepMind (Bard chatbot is now known as Google Gemini since Dec2023)

 

30Nov2022 video: David Rubenstein, Carlyle co-founder, in conversation with Richard Vague on the former’s book ‘How to Invest: Masters on the Craft’

 

-- investing - stock investing - 

 

-- this book is about investment strategy of 23 great investors

 

Some of the Rubenstein’s quotes from the above interview >

 

“Libraries are indispensable to a good free society”

 

“If you go along and invest with what everybody does, by definition, you will be basically the average. And so if you’re going to be great at something you have to take a risk and you have to do things that other people don’t do.”

 

“One of the qualities great investors have in common is they are willing to defy conventional wisdom or not to take the path of least resistance. They were able to do something nobody else saw at that time.”

 

 

“I haven’t bought any cryptocurrencies, but I’ve invested in a few companies that service the crypto industry.”

 

“My Family Office did look at FTX (founded by Sam Bankman-Fried) as an investment, but my people couldn’t figure out the relationship between FTX and Alameda – so, the people at my Family Office turned down the investment.”

 

“The average person should not try to be anybody who’s an expert in this book. You can’t become like these great investors. You have to devote your entire life to do like them. If you’re a doctor, lawyer, public official or dentist, you’re doing great things for society and that’s fine – don’t try to be Warren Buffet, that’s not realistic. The average person is better with equity index funds or money market funds or fixed income.”

 

“When people become wealthy, they tend to spend more on healthcare. When nations like China become wealthier, their spending on healthcare increases substantially.”

 

Important characteristics all these great investors have are:

 

-- they’re reasonably intelligent

-- they’re generally well educated

-- they are not school drop-outs

-- good felicity for numbers (need not be mathematicians)

-- they admit their mistakes and go on to the next thing

-- they are good at sharing the credit

-- they take the blame for mistakes (humility)

-- they are not arrogant

-- they are incredible readers

-- they don’t just read about their area of expertise, they read about everything

-- they take final decisions and they don’t want to delegate investment decisions

 

-- Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies is a world-class mathematician; he more or less invented quantitative investing; he exploits market inefficiencies; he is eccentric and a genius; he smokes two cigarette packs a day – this is for almost the past 50 or 60 years; he brings his own ash tray to meetings; he doesn’t believe in socks – Jim Simons thinks socks are an unnecessary adornment -

 

-- Albert Einstein never wore socks and he argued the big toe will eventually put a hole in the sock and so why wear it

 

-- Sam Zell is known as the grave dancer; he likes to dance on the graves of other people’s bad investments

 

19Oct2022 video: David Rubenstein, Carlyle co-founder, in conversation with Neil Irwin of Axios.com on the former’s book ‘How to Invest: Masters on the Craft’

 

“I’m interested in ideas as much as I’m interested in money. Money is not more important than ideas.”

 

“A lot of wealthy people are tortured souls.”

 

“The hardest thing in life is raising happy and healthy children.”

 

“The most elusive thing in personal life is happiness.”

 

John W Rogers Jr (Ariel Capital Mgmt): “I don’t email.”

 

“John W Rogers Jr is obsessed with investing, he is a value investor. He’s on the board of McDonald’s and to be a loyal person, he goes to McDonald’s for one meal a day, every single day – he’s been doing it for 20 years and he seems to be reasonably healthy.” – anecdote -

 

“A recurring theme in this book: Nobody is great at everything all the time. Everybody has their failures.”

 

“Ray Dalio has built Bridgewater Associates from scratch. He has been in hedge fund business for 50 years. His firm now manages USD 150 billion. Of all the hedge fund firms, his firm has been the most profitable and created most profits for investors.”

 

“I’d rather invest with people that are smart and hardworking than people who are lazy and not that smart.”

 

“I’m 73. I’m not old enough to be president of the United States.” – fun -


 
Warrent Buffett and Aesop's Fable:  Berkshsire Hathaway annual letters - 2000 annual letter - investing - stock investing -
 
"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

"At Berkshire, we make no attempt to pick the few winners that will emerge from an ocean of unprovenenterprises. We’re not smart enough to do that, and we know it. Instead, we try to apply Aesop’s 2,600-year-old equation to opportunities in which we have reasonable confidence as to how many birds are in the bush and when they will emerge (a formulation that my grandsons would probably update to 'A girl in a convertible is worth five in the phonebook.')."


 
26Aug2023 Tweet - Indian talent in the US and other nations >
 
All from India or Indian-origin >
 
CEO of Alphabet Google
CEO of Microsoft
CEO of YouTube
CEO of Adobe
CEO of World Bank Group
CEO of IBM 🇮🇳
CEO of Albertsons
CEO of NetApp
CEO of Palo Alto Networks
CEO of Arista Networks
CEO of Novartis
CEO of Starbucks 
CEO of Micron Technology 
CEO of Honeywell 
CEO of Flex 
CEO of Wayfair 
CEO of Chanel 
CEO of OnlyFans 
CEO of Motorola Mobility 
CEO of Cognizant 
CEO of Vimeo 


27Aug2023 Bar-headed geese (Anser Indicus) -  one of the world's highest-flying birds - flies above Mount Everest - easily identified by two black bars on their heads -

- why birds can fly over Mount Everest? - bar-headed geese, like all birds - hummingbirds, ostriches and pigeons have super efficient lungs - 

- how did birds get great lungs? - they inherited from dinosaurs -

- birds are dinosaurs



 
 
27Aug2023 Maria Popova on Canadian singer-songwriter, poet and novelist Leonard Cohen and creativity - music - songwriter - songwriting - singer -  poetry - literature - quote -

Leonard Cohen's quotes: I’m writing all the time. And as the songs begin to coalesce, I’m not doing anything else but writing. I wish I were one of those people who wrote songs quickly. But I’m not. So it takes me a great deal of time to find out what the song is. So I’m working most of the time."
 
"Almost everybody’s work is hard. One is distracted by this notion that there is such a thing as inspiration, that it comes fast and easy. And some people are graced by that style. I’m not. So I have to work as hard as any stiff, to come up with my payload."
 
"I think unemployment is the great affliction of man. Even people with jobs are unemployed. In fact, most people with jobs are unemployed. I can say, happily and gratefully, that I am fully employed. Maybe all hard work means is fully employed."
 
"Before I can discard the verse, I have to write it… I can’t discard a verse before it is written because it is the writing of the verse that produces whatever delights or interests or facets that are going to catch the light. The cutting of the gem has to be finished before you can see whether it shines."
 
"Before I can discard the verse, I have to write it… I can’t discard a verse before it is written because it is the writing of the verse that produces whatever delights or interests or facets that are going to catch the light. The cutting of the gem has to be finished before you can see whether it shines." 
 
"So I always had the sense of being in this for keeps, if your health lasts you. And you’re fortunate enough to have the days at your disposal so you can keep on doing this. I never had the sense that there was an end. That there was a retirement or that there was a jackpot."
 
 
25Aug2023: How climate change impacts corporates?
 
-- higher carbon taxes
 
-- higher property insurance costs
 
-- higher borrowing costs for fossil fuel industry
 
--  higher energy costs

-- higher compliance costs, etc.
 
 
24Aug2023 Tweet -  how to a make a billion dollars without lifting a finger - interest income (cash holdings) for Apple, Amazon and Google -



 
 
24Aug2023 US Real interest rates - real rates - real yields - US real rate - US real yield
 
Different market participants use different measures to calculate real interest rates in the US: 

method 1 > 
 
Real 10-year Treasury yield = nominal 10-year yield - CPI inflation rate (year-on-year) for the latest month (Jul2023 print available)
 
For example: it equals 1.02 percent (= 4.22 - 3.20) as on 24Aug2023  
 
method 2 >
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets uses the following formula:
 
 
"Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily nominal Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation (all items less food and energy) for that month. For the current month, we use the prior month’s core CPI figures until the latest data is available." 
 
Real 10-year Treasury yield = nominal 10-year yield - core CPI inflation rate for the latest month (Jul2023) = 4.22 - 4.70 = minus 0.48 percent as on 24Aug2023

 


method 3 > 
 
St Louis Fed (FRED Economic Data) uses a different method to calculate Real Interest Rate in the US >
 
This is explained in a blog 'Constructing ex-ante real interest rates.' 

"A real interest rate is an inflation-adjusted interest rate. You might think of a real interest rate as the price of borrowing in goods, not money. Because people and firms make decisions based on real quantities, not nominal quantities, real interest rates are more useful than nominal interest rates." 

This blog also explains the importance of breakeven inflation rate. "The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average."

The 10-year breakven inflation rate is 2.35 percent as on 23Aug2023.
 
 
Cleveland Fed explains inflation expectations and calculation of 10-year expected inflation in the US here. The 10-year expected inflation estimate that Cleveland Fed reports is the rate that inflation is expected to average over the next 10 years. The 10-year expected inflation is 2.13 percent (retrieved 24Aug2023).
 
This weblink also gives 10-year TIPS yield. 

FRED: 10-year ex-ante real interest rate is nearly 1.60 percent as on 11Aug2023 (as calculated using expected inflation estimates by Cleveland Fed)

Fred: market yield on 10-year US Treasury (constant maturity)  is 4.34 percent as on 23Aug2023
 
FRED: markt yield on 10-year US Treasury (constant matuity) inflaton-indexed is 1.99 percent as on 23Aug2023
 
WSJ article dated 24Aug2023: 'Real rates aren't your real friends'


 
24Aug2023 Media hype > Livemint article >
 
the so-called space stocks - moon stocks - Chandrayaan stocks -- ISRO - moon landing - soft landing - chandrayaan rockets -
 
Centrum Electronics 
 
MTAR Technologies
 
Paras Defence & Space Technologies
 
 Avantel Ltd

Mishra Dhatu Nigam (Midhani)

Walchandnagar Industries 
 
Astra Microwave Products

HAL, L&T, BHEL, BEL, etc.
 
 
 
21Aug2023 A snapshot of Murugappa group of companies > the biggest listed companies, by market cap, are Cholamandalam Investment & Finance co, CG Power and Tube Investments >
 
The current market cap of Murugappa group's listed companies is around Rs 2.90 lakh crore.
 

 
09Jul023 video life coach Gaur Gopal Das - spiritual quotient - fun - humour -

The seven words which are the greatest enemy of growth and progress in any field are:

'We have always done it this way' 
 
-- Nokia Phone, Blockbuster Video went out of business because they refused to adopt and change with the times 

 
 
21Jun2023 video Rajiv Bajaj of Bajaj Auto talking to Sonia Shenoy - CNBC TV18 Classics – Yoga – Homeopathy –

 

-- Yoga is alignment and awareness

 

-- my observation from college and after reading Jack Trout (author of ‘Differentiation or Die’) > “Markets exist at the extremes,” for example, when I was in college, we had Hero Honda bike (based on mileage – low fuel consumption) and Yamaha RX100 (based on power) – you can’t be a jack of all trades, you’ve to differentiate to survive in markets – you’ve to find your own niches – as someone said the true enemy of man is generalisation – if you don’t stand out, you don’t create brands you create commodities –

 

19Aug2023 video Shiv Nadar and Ajai Chowdhry of HCL talk to Shereen Bhan – CNBC TV18Classics – HCL Technologies – HCL Infosystems – HCL group – HCL Tech – HCL Corporation -

 

-- Shiv Nadar: I was 22 when I first saw a big city in my life

 

-- HCL created the first personal computer (PC) in India in 1978 at the same time as other global giants, like, Steve Jobs’ Apple – it’s at the same time we were shipping computers from Noida (26th of March, 1978) that Apple computers were shipping out of Cupertino, California

 

-- HCL (originally Hindustan Computers Ltd) was founded in 1976 by six people, namely, Shiv Nadar, Ajai Chowdhry, Arjun Malhotra, Yogesh Vaidya, Subhash Arora and DS ‘Pammi’ Puri – all resigned from DCM (formerly Delhi Cloth & General Mills) before starting HCL

 

-- Shiv Nadar: before starting HCL, I prepared business plans for two – one was computers and another medical electronics – between the two, we decided on computers – the tipping point for this decision was that in medical electronics, 90% of the demand was controlled by the government and we did not want to depend on the government and in computers there was a lot of scope for the private sector – hence, we decided on starting computers business

 

-- HCl began operations in 1976 as a joint venture between the state government of Uttar Pradesh (26% stake) and HCL (74%) – there was no chance a private company would get a license for computers manufacturing at that time (in 1976) and so we had to rope in Uttar Pradesh gov’t so that our company would get a government license

 

-- we decided on the name ‘Hindustan’ so that our company was taken seriously by customers – the name ‘Hindustan’ was associated mainly with government companies and not many private companies were using Hindustan

 

-- at HCL, we were not in favour of giving dividends to shareholders, but UP government forced us to give a small a dividend – for the UP gov’t the measure of success of a joint venture company was dividends – your focus should be on developing your company first by reinvesting the profits in your business, you’ve your whole ahead of you and you can wait for dividends later in your life once your company is fully developed

 

-- we created the EMI (equated monthly instalments) concept in India by selling computers via IDBI (a development finance institution or DFI at that time) and IDBI had a scheme for SMEs (small and medium enterprises) and the monthly instalment was Rs 3,500 for buying a computer – and this was a marketing success

 

-- Shiv Nadar: I will always do new things, hand it over to others and then  move on to newer things

 

-- at one time, HCL lost 50 clients worth USD 80 million – but eventually 46 of those clients came back to HCL

 

-- (on joint venture partnerships) this is one life; all of us have one life, this is no dress rehearsal and this is done in real time – it’s better to pack more in to this if you can – joint ventures forever are rare (HCL had set up a joint venture with Hewlett Packard of the US in 1991 and it ended in 1996)

 

-- Ajai Chowdhry: joint ventures are defined as 'same bed with two different dreams' – anecdote – joint ventures need not last forever, once you achieved your goals of the partnerships, it’s time to move on

 

-- Ajai Chowdhry: we learnt a lot from the HCL-Hewlett Packard parternship; we learnt quality, we learnt scale and we learnt process; till that time we had passion, and of course, we need both passion and quality and process – anecdote -

 

-- Shiv Nadar: Companies don’t do business with companies, people do business with people

 

-- Shiv Nadar: I’m a product of education, nothing really more; I grew up in Tamil education and I was never in English education and I studied in a place like Coimbatore where they teach you English in Tamil – coming from such a background, I wanted to give something back to society in the form of education and establish schools

 

-- Shiv Nadar quotes a dialogue from a 1970-movie ‘Patton’ about WWII > “General George S. Patton says, ‘No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making some other poor dumb bastard die for his country.’” – quote -


 
 
14Aug2023 Hero Electric Vehicles Pvt Ltd was downgraded to Crisil D rating 
 
-- Crisil ratings - rating downgrade - corporate - debt default - EV - EVs - FAME subsidy -  
 
-- Directors of Hero Electric Vehicles Private Limited are Gaurav Munjal, Vijay Munjal, Vishal Ramesh Ootam, Sridhar Venkiteswaran, Naveen Munjal, Pankaj Gupta, Vandana Munjal
 
 
15Aug2023 WhiteOak Capital MF - Large cap presentation - PDF  Jul2023 - Sensex - China - India -











 
 
14Aug2023 FT India - iPhone maker Foxconn’s cautious pivot to India shows limits of ‘China plus one’
 
Multinationals’ desire for a “China plus one” strategy, following supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing, is driving Foxconn into a renewed push into India, where it first invested 15 years ago but where it still only employs some 50,000 of its 1 million global workforce.

India now accounts for $10 billion of Foxconn’s annual revenue, according to the presentation. That is 4.6 per cent of the company’s $216 billion 2022 revenue, more than double the 2 per cent registered in 2021.

Foxconn chair Young Liu has said China accounts for 75 per cent of Foxconn’s global operations, up from 70 per cent before the pandemic. He has not given a target for a more distributed footprint, reflecting a decidedly cautious attitude towards India. 

 
 
13Aug2023: How have mutual funds holding shares of Reliance Industries Ltd as on 31Jul2023 valued shares (yet to be listed) of Jio Financial Services Ltd?

As per mutual funds portfolio statements as on 31Jul2023, Jio Financial Services' per share fair value was estimated at Rs 261.85. On 11Aug2023, Reliance Industries allotted 635,32,84,188 shares of Jio Financial Services to shareholders of Reliance Industries Ltd (record date for spin off was 20Jul2023). 
 
So, the estimated market cap of Jio Financial Services as on 31Jul2023 (the share is likely to be listed on stock exchanges in Aug2023) would be Rs 166,400 crore (635.33 crore x Rs 261.85). 

Details are >



 
 
09Aug2023 Tweet - Meru Gokhale -  'no offence, but...' 'with due respect...' - English - alternatives to not offend people - fun - humour -



 
 
09Aug2023 Tweet - Brahma Chellaney - Today, on the 78th anniversary of the Nagasaki atomic bombing, it is worth remembering that picturesque Nagasaki became the second victim of nuclear holocaust by an accident of weather: Kokura, the city chosen for the attack, was under a heavy cloud blanket, so the U.S. bomber was diverted from Kokura to a larger city, Nagasaki, Japan’s gateway to the world. - anecdote -
 
Nagasaki, Japan’s oldest and densest stronghold of Roman Catholicism, was paradoxically destroyed by a predominantly Christian America.
 

 
10Aug2023 Tweet - Gautam Bhatia, India's Supereme Court lawyer on independence of Election Commission of India (ECI) and the government's attempt to weaken that independence - CEC appointment - 
 
-- thread reader on this Tweeet thread

-- structural and operational independence of ECI should be maintained as per the Constitution

-- the executive (i.e., the Government of India) should never have control over the ECI

-- as per the Constitution, the ECI must be insulated from the executive dominance



 
 
09Aug2023 BBG China Sprints Ahead in Race to Modernize Global Money Flows - crypto - digital yuan - US dollar - dedollarisation - forex flows - mBridge project (the name mBridge refers to a multiple CBDC bridge) - BIS - CBDC - bypassing SWIFT - cross border transfers - seamless money transfer -
 


 
31Jul2023 CoinDesk Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has been 'orange-pilled,' or converted from being Bitcoin (BTC) nonbeliever into a believer - Mike called Larry the most important thing that happened this year in bitcoin - in June this year, BlackRock applied to SEC to list a spot bitcoin ETF in the US -
 
- English - new phrase - 'orange-pilled'
 
 
 
 
09Aug2023 video - Raw Talks talks to JA Chowdary, entrepreneur and IT specialist - Anantpur - N Vittal - Hitec City -  Maitrivanam - Aditya Enclave - United States of Ameerpet or USA - education - ChatGPT - AI - NVIDIA - IIIT, Hyderabad - Infotech Enterprises started at Maitrivanam - 

-- Bill Gates - Microsoft - Bill Clinton - Y2K - one million dollar software exports celebrated - STPI - License Raj - innovation - technology - Telugu video - CBN - Chandra Babu Naidu -

 
05Aug2023 Sassi di Matera are two districts (Sasso Caveoso and Sasso Barisano) of the Italian city of Matera, Basilicata, well-known for their ancient cave dwellings inhabited since the Paleolithic period. - UNESCO - World Heritage Site - town on mountain cliffs -

-- A Cave with a View - New Yorker 
 
-- the opening sequence with a hotel in James Bond's film 'No Time to Die' was shot in Sassi di Matera

-- Lonely Planet guide to Sassi di Matera
 
 

 
 
02Aug2023 TE - Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ on Tuesday (01Aug2023), citing factors such as “the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance" relative to peers. 
 
The current US ratings of major rating agencies are:

Fitch         AA+ Stable  (since 01Aug2013)
S&P           AA + Stable (since 10Jan2013)
Moody's   Aaa Stable (since 18Jul2013)
 
The ratings agency pointed to “the repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions” that have eroded market confidence in the country’s fiscal management. Fitch placed the US’ AAA rating on negative watch in May at the height of the debt ceiling impasse. 
 
The agency also highlighted the rising general government deficit, which it anticipates will rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, as well as a combination of tightening credit conditions, weakening business investment and a slowdown in consumption that could lead to a mild recession. 
 
US authorities disagreed with Fitch’s decision, with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calling it “arbitrary and based on outdated data.”. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of the United States thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. 
 
This page includes the government debt credit rating for the United States as reported by major credit rating agencies.
 

 

02Aug2023 RBI - Policy rates  RBI current rates: Policy rates / Reserve rates / exchange rates / lending - deposit rates: rbi.org.in/Home.aspx/GetK - RBI Get Key words - repo rate - reverse repo - CRR - SLR - base rate - MCLR - call rates 
 


 
 
30Jul2023 IMDB > Unknown: Cosmic Time Machine  - Netflix documentary - science - space - James Webb Space Telescope 
 
 
 
14Aug2023 video Aswath Damodaran, dean of valuation talking to Scott Galloway, professor of marketing: - investing - stock investing - 

 

-- Damodaran is from San Diego

 

-- markets are manic-depressive about Tesla stock

 

-- nobody knows what the new technological shift will be and what architecture we need

 

-- NVIDIA has created opportunities for itself by being the early entrant into crypto currencies and AI

 

-- AI will be negative sum for companies; if everybody cuts costs, they will have to cut prices and then all companies will have reduced profit margins – making it negative for companies in the end

 

-- (in the context of market for AI or artificial intelligence) if everybody has it, nobody has it

 

-- a small number of companies, like, NVIDIA, can benefit from AI, but for most companies AI may not deliver the promised profits

 

-- AI may not have competitive advantage for many companies

 

-- market is a contest between safety capital and risk capital and in the last decade or so, we’ve tilted the scales in favour of risk capital and reaped higher returns from risk capital – finally, safety capital (e.g., with T bills fetching around 5 percent in the US) has a place to go now and perhaps in 2023, we’ll find a balance between safety and risk capital – here, Prof Damodaran is suggesting risk capital in the next decade will have moderate returns (unlike the spectacular returns the US equities had between 2009 and 2021)

 

-- as an economy and a society, we’re going to pay the price for the excesses of risk capital being cheaply available and readily accessible (between 2009 and 2021, interest rates were almost zero in the US and other developed economies)

 

-- because of lower interests and almost-free risk capital, people started unsustainable new businesses

 

-- in any economy, you need a balance between safety and risk capital

 

-- (in response to BlackRock’s Larry Fink’s comment that Bitcoin is ‘digital gold’) Larry Fink is a fixed income guy, outside of that he’s no knowledge of other investments – with USD 11 trillion under the belt gives Fink the megaphone – I’m constantly surprised how little he knows about investing and markets

 

-- inflation in the US is likely to stay higher for longer

 

-- at the start of 2023, all experts were gearing for a recession and predicting markets would go down, but so far recession hasn’t materialised and stocks have gone up contrary to predictions – ultimately, we’ve to trust markets more than what the experts tell us.

 

-- I’ve always been sceptical of yield curve inversion leading to a recession – actual data do not support the thumb rule of yield curve inversion and recession

 
 
 

07Aug2023 video: Samir Arora talking to Business Today 07Aug2023: - stock investing - 


– there is no bull run yet in India, we’re just in early stages of a bull market and as of now there is nothing to be excited about


– Indian stock market has delivered superior returns over 25 years, 15 years and 10 years – in general, we’ve done well in the long run giving 14 or 15 percent CAGR


– my prediction is Indian stocks will continue to do well in future also, though one can expect lower returns from India compared to historically


– China has disappointed stock investors in the long run – Chinese stocks provided only 2 percent CAGR returns in the past 25 years


– China + 1 strategy will work in favour of India


– (referring to market buzz in Railway stocks) we don’t buy stocks where the customer is the government – because the government demands lowest cost from companies, government doesn’t pay in time and we don’t know which company will get government orders)


– private sector banks have done well over the years – in future also, some public sector banks in the lower rung will continue to lose market share to PVBs – the lower-rung PSBs can’t handle new-age, online and app-based customers


– in the consumer sector, we don’t look at companies with 8 or 9 percent growth; we look for companies with 18 or 20 percent growth rates (like,  Vedant Fashions, Varun Beverages, Westlife Foodworld, etc.) – and for such companies, we’re willing to pay higher valuation – in a big picture sense, we want companies with growth higher than India’s GDP growth


– if the stock has a momentum doing well in one quarter, one year and so on; and in addition the stock’s fundamentals are good in the past one or two years, such stocks, in a broad sense, will continue to do well in future also – it’s not that all such stocks will do well, but in majority of cases they will do well


– Fitch downgrade of the US sovereign rating will have no impact, beyond a point – because their debt is in dollars and the US can print dollars – S&P already downgraded the US back in 2011


– risks come from the unknown and the unexpected (for example, COVID-19, 2016 demonetisation, 1998 Asian Contagion, 2008 GFC, Russian debt default in 1998, Kargil war, scams, Vajpayee gov’t fell after 13 days in office, etc.) – don’t run away from such risks, take a deep breadth, look around and if you’ve confidence in future, add to your portfolio


– in general, equities will do well over the long run and in the long run you’ll lose money in debt (for example, the US equities vs US debt in the 20th century and Japanese equities did well compared to Japanese bonds)



 
04Aug2023 WSJ - William Bernstein on Investors' Biggest Risk: Not Preparing for the worst - Bill Bernstein - stock investing -
 
-- quotes Sylvia Bloom who amassed USD 8.2 million and donates most of it - benefits of compounding -
 
-- tweet 07May2018 on Sylvia Bloom 
 
-- three biggest mistakes investors make >
 
   1. investors overestimate their risk tolerance / overconfidence
 
   2. when trading, investors frequently underestimate the intelligence of persons on the other side of the trade, who may be more knowledgeable than the investors

   3. investors hanker after maximum returns (get rich   
    quickly)  -- actually, they should minimise the chances of 
   dying poor

-- 11Jul2023 Morningstar - talking to Christine Benz, Bill Bernstein on 'Four Pillars of Investing' - investing books - #anecdote 

"One half of investing is mathematics, and the other half is Shakespeare. And what I mean by the Shakespeare of investing is the fact that history, particularly economic and financial history, but geopolitics as well, is a very cruel mistress. And the other part of Shakespeare is the biggest enemy you have in investing, which is the face that’s staring back at you in the mirror. And if you’re the kind of person who can solve differential equations or do continuous time calculus as easily as most people brush their teeth, and you ignore the Shakespeare half of investing, you’re going to get portfolio insurance, you’re going to get long-term capital management. You’re going to have your head handed to you. So, that’s the first thing that I wanted to get across in the book."

-- benefits of passive investing
-- market psychology more important
-- be wary of people who hog the headlines / limelight
-- the extra 1 or 2% you get from investing in corporate bond isn't worth the risk

-- most things in finance aren't predictable
-- blatant fraud and gangsterism of Germany's Wirecard
-- the biggest deep risk for stock investing is inflation
-- focus more on deep risks rather than shallow risks
-- to protect yourself from inflation, you keep the duration of your bonds short; and stocks don't do well during initial stages of inflation but in the long term stocks do well

-- stocks of commodity producers are likely to do well during high inflation
 
-- on asset allocation: the best thing you can do is to pick an allocation that’s reasonable and then stick with it. That’s better than using a black box
 
-- when stocks fall 40 or 50 percent in short term, young investors and investment virgins don't have the nerve / capacity to hold them -- once they lose 40 or 50 percent of their money, they take a pledge never to return to stock market
 
-- so, it's far better for young investors to start with a conservative allocation, so that they can avoid the risk of psychological shocks
 
-- don't prefer annuities - because they lose a lot with inflationary pressures and they can't protect you against inflation and another risk is credit risk emanating from the annuity seller
 
-- retirees need to be aware of the sequencing risk 
 
-- on sequencing risk: if you’re 80 years old, the odds are you only have to pay for 10 years of expenses. So, you only need 10 years of safe assets. The older you get, as you spend down your safe assets, your stocks are going to grow in value. So, just organically, your stock allocation is going to rise, and that’s perfectly fine, because the older you are, the less bonds you need
 
-- how the rich get richer? - This is a topic that I’m kind of fond of talking about, which is, this is really how the rich get richer, which is that if you have enough Treasury bills that you can pay your groceries and your rent for a decade or more, then you are going to sail through a stock market decline a lot better than the person who has no safe assets and is going to have to sell depreciated stocks in order to pay for their basic needs. That’s the kind of person who sells at the bottom. The kind of person who buys at the bottom is the person who has that great elixir of equanimity, which is Treasury bills. There is a real reason why Warren Buffett has 20% of Berkshire in T-bills and cash equivalents. That’s how he gets richer.



01Aug2023 Capital Allocators - Timeless Value Investing - Ted Seides talks to Seth Klarman talks - stock investing - 

Excerpts from the above > 
 
Seth Klarman on the current markets:

1. “This is one of the weirdest environments in the 40 years I’ve been in the investment business."

2. "People have short memories. It would be wise to think back to 1974-1975 when everything didn’t get rescued, and to imagine a bear market that didn’t immediately lead to a buying opportunity."

3. "An investor must think about cyclical change like Graham and Dodd did, but now secular change as well. The combination of that has made finding mispricing harder and requires digging deeper."

4. "The nature of most Wall Street innovations is they’re never stress-tested for a rainy day. That wouldn't be any fun."

5. "When the market is more expensive than historic averages, you can lose a lot to simple mean reversion."

6. "Warren Buffett wrote that no one should own common stocks who's not comfortable with a 50% drop in the market. Almost nobody is comfortable the 50% drop of the market, yet Americans own more stocks than ever before. I think people have forgotten that admonition."

7. "A great misunderstanding in recent years is that if you accept illiquidity, you automatically get a higher return. In reality, buying at a discounted price provides the higher return."


Seth Klarman on timeless value investment strategy:

 1. "Many funds have a view that the goal in investing is to limit how much you can lose on any idea. But if you can establish that an idea is good versus bad, then why can't you understand that there might be one that's great rather than just good?"

2. "Just because an asset is in illiquid form doesn't mean it's purely illiquid. Buildings get sold all the time. Companies get sold all the time. Whereas 9.9% of the shares of a 400 million company might be a very illiquid block. Liquidity may not be what everybody seems to think."

3. "Bill Ackman once said to me that value investing is like watching paint dry, but I bring a hair blower. That's a good definition of activism." #Anecdote

4. "We go miles wide to look for opportunity. When we think we found it, then we drill miles deep."

5. "Sometimes there’s chaos in the markets and moving quickly is necessary, so a large enough discount may offset a lack of the deepest possible knowledge."

6. "Yogi Berra said, 'In theory, every theory works. In practice, a lot of  them don't.'" #Anecdote


Seth Klarman on timeless value investing principles:

1. "'Margin of safety' captures what a value investor tries to do. You must leave room because you might be wrong. But having one means you're likely not to be in tears when a lot of other investors are."

2. "Value investing is something not everybody is comfortable with. It's like an inoculation. When you get introduced to the approach, it either makes sense, or it doesn’t."

3. "The hardest thing about value investing without a      catalyst is that you can own something that's out of favor for an incredibly long time. Over a 5- or 10-year period, being early and being wrong look exactly the same."

4. "Science progresses secularly, but finance progresses cyclically. Most ideas have been around before, and we repeat the same mistakes. There's a lot to learn from studying past periods."

5. "There are two constraints on every investor: capital and time. Both are important."




 
10Dec2020 MOI Global - Bruce Greenwald on value investing - investing - stock investing  

excerpts from the above interview >
 
If you look at a company like Deere, the part of the business that makes tractors and sells them in a big, globally competitive product market, has shrunk. What Deere really does is provide local service support. It provides local software that runs those machines off GPS systems and places every seed in the ground individually at optimal times. You have local secondhand markets because the machines last for a long time. Because it can charge a lot for these extremely valuable machines, Deere finances the sale, which is based on local information about lending risks. When Deere dominates the United States or regions within the United States and has 90% of the agricultural equipment in that sector, there’s just no chance anybody will buy a Kubota or an Agco tractor. This principle applies equally to manufactured goods as local services become a bigger part of the package.

At the end of the 1980s, profits were about 8% to 8.5% of national income. Today (in 2020), that number is about 13.5% because globalization is essentially being reversed and technology has reinforced this trend.

If you think about the old technology companies like IBM, they did everything. They did the chips. They did the software. They did the hardware. They did the peripherals. If you look at the technology companies today, they’re highly specialized. Oracle does only databases. Microsoft does operating systems and adjacent software. Intel does only CPU chips. Oracle does only fonts and graphic material. Google does only search. Once you get disaggregated markets like that and technology has enabled people to put systems together from many different suppliers, those tend to be small niche markets. In a sense, they’re local markets and product geography, and you get dominant competitors in those markets who can keep other people out because they have the scale economies, and they have the customer captivity to deny those customers and deny the necessary scale to entrants.

You’re talking about commodity businesses. The history of commodity businesses – and this includes energy – is that in the race between improvements in technology and the exhaustion of readily accessible resources (including the atmosphere), improvements in technology have won hands down for 200 years. Even though oil did well for a period starting in roughly 2003, historically it’s done badly. There’s a brief period in the 1970s and early 1980s when it did well, then it did badly for 20 years. If you’re going to buy natural resources intelligently, you must be a strict value investor and not look for growth at all. You want to make sure the asset value is there, make sure the earnings power value is there, and you want to make sure there is a margin of safety.

The ability to make good judgments about how long these franchises will last is industry-specific. Again, you better be a real industry expert.

One of the things I cannot beat out of my students is they say, “Oh, this is a powerful franchise, so I’ll pay a higher multiple for it.” Powerful franchises are all in the earnings, presumably. If you give it a higher multiple, you’re double counting. What you care about is the durability of the franchise, which is the point you raised early in the context of disruption. Also, you care about the rate of growth of that franchise, which depends on management’s ability to make those earnings from the franchise grow. You must start with detailed industry knowledge. Then yes, of course, you must be able to judge management.

 
22Jul2023 Tweet thread on SFB history - Utkarsh SFB was listed on 21Jul2023 - small finance banks - SFBs

List of small finance banks and their market cap (only five are listed) > 



 
 
23May2012 Chakrapani: A Legend Whom Legends Respect - Aluri Venkata Subba Rao - Tollywood - Telugu film industry - producer - made movies like,  "Paatala Bhairavi, Maya Bazaar, Gundamma Katha, Missamma, Jagadeka Veeruni Katha, Pelli Chesi Choodu, Appu Chesi Pappu Koodu, Rechukka Pagatichukka" - Vijaya Vauhini Studios - Vijaya Pictures - Chandamama publication - Telugu monthly - web archive -
 
 
20Jul2023 ICICI Direct research report - Gabriel India - stock - stock investing -  auto sector -
 
 
17Dec2019 The Art of (Not) Selling by Chris Cerrone - Akre Capital Management - investing - stock investing - web archive - "100 to 1 in the Stock Market" by Thomas Phelps

-- Akre Capital blogs on Web Archives - blogs by Chuck Akre, Chris Cerrone and John Neff 

-- 04Apr2021 Chris Cerrone - Advice for Aspiring Investors
 
 
12Jul2023 TE - The Swiss franc appreciated to 0.87 against the USD, reaching its strongest level since January 2015, after lower-than-expected US inflation data indicated that the US Federal Reserve may be approaching the end of its tightening cycle.


13Jul2023 ICRA - Syngene International Ltd - calculation of net cash and gross debt or total debt

As on March 31, 2023, the company had net cash of Rs. 538.4 crore. 
 
Net Cash = Calculated as unencumbered cash and liquid investments minus gross debt (including lease liabilities). As on March 31, 2023, the company had Total Debt (including lease liabilities) of Rs. 815.2 crore and unencumbered cash and liquid investment of Rs. 1,353.6 crore. 

29Dec2023 TE -  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) in the US fell by 24 bps to 6.83% in the week ended 15Dec2023, reaching the lowest level since 23Jun2023 - the US mortgage rate - MBA - 
 
- the MBA 30-year mortgage rate in the US reached 23-year high of 7.9% (which was the highest since September 2000) for the week ended 20Oct2023



 
 
13Aug2023 TE -  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) in the US jumped 7 bps to 7.16% in the week ending 11Aug2023, reaching the highest level since the first week of Oct2022. - mortgage rate - MBA -



 
12Jul2023 TE -  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) in the US jumped 22 bps to 7.07% in the 1st week of Jul2023, reaching the highest level since the first week of Nov2022. - mortgage rate - MBA -
 

 
 
 
23Jun2023 Tweet - Puru Saxena -  stages of growth stocks - graph - stock market - Stan Weinstein -



 
 
31Mar2023 eGazette PDF -  web archive - Gazette of India - Government Savings Promotion Act - Gazette Id is CG-DL-E-31032023-244822 - G.S.R.238(E) - page 18 of the PDF - Aadhaar and PAN are compulsory for opening new accounts as well existing accounts already opened - Moneylife Advisory - PPF, SSY, SCSS and post office small savings accounts - is it applicable for post office NSC?
 

 
 
21Jun2023 MORTH - Ministry of Road Transport & Highways - car scrapping - external links -   registered vehicle scrapping facility - RVSF - user manual -  car scrap - 
 
- state wise available RVSF - authorised car scrap dealers

- MORTH notifications regarding RVSF



 
25Apr2023 tweet - asset location is key to keeping taxes low on retirement income -  
 
- US retirement accounts - retirement plans - Roth IRA - IRA - tax deferred account -  retirement savings




 
21Apr2023 Tweet - Global EV production
 
- electric vehicles - electric vehicle numbers - electric car
 

 
 
 
02May2023 The Economist - The 2023 crony-capitalism index
 
- kleptocracy - golden visa - 
 
- India’s leader, Narendra Modi, has favourites among the country’s corporate captains. Over the past decade, wealth from crony-capitalist sectors has risen from 5% to nearly 8% of its gdp.
 
 - Russia, Czech Republic, Malaysia, Singapore and Mexico top the list of crony capitalism index in the world -- India is at the 10th position out of 43 countries
 

 
04May2023 Tweet - Luke Gromen 
 
-  rupee reserve currency? - rupee convertibility? -

- “Russia is not comfortable holding rupees & wants to be paid in Chinese yuan or other currencies, a second Indian govt official involved in the discussions said.” Seems like they buried the lede, esp as CNY is gold convertible in Shanghai, HK, & Dubai.
 

 
 
 
06Jun2023 Tweet - World of Statistics 

- companies with largest number of employees - staff - biggest workforce -



 
 
03Jun2023 Tweet -  "India has two Railways Ministers. It is Prime Minister Narendra Modi ji when new Vande Bharat trains need to be launched. It is Ashwini Vaishnaw when large numbers of people die in trains accidents. Division of fame and blame." - Balasore Train accident
 
- Tweet 01Dec2016: Self-attribution bias is very much evident now: "Success, you're mine. Failure, don't touch me."




 
04Jun2023 Deccan Herald - Vivek Kaul - Sorry, cash isn't going anywhere 

- cash - digital payments - CIC - currency in circulation - 

- "To conclude, the rise of digital payments is equated with the end of cash. This is an equivocation fallacy, where those who benefit from the end of cash, have muddled our minds by equating the rise of digital payments to the end of cash."

- "It is understandable why governments, financial institutions and many VC-backed firms want this, given that the quality of data they will have access to will improve dramatically. However, as citizens, this should have us worried."

- "As Brett Scott puts it: 'Lifts have their use, but no responsible property developer would ever only install a lift without having emergency stairs.' The same is true about digital payments and cash." #anecdote







To conclude, the rise of digital payments is equated with the end of cash. This is an equivocation fallacy, where those who benefit from the end of cash, have muddled our minds by equating the rise of digital payments to the end of cash. It is unders...

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/the-silence-of-the-celebrities-1224618.html
To conclude, the rise of digital payments is equated with the end of cash. This is an equivocation fallacy, where those who benefit from the end of cash, have muddled our minds by equating the rise of digital payments to the end of cash. It is unders...

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/the-silence-of-the-celebrities-1224618.html
To conclude, the rise of digital payments is equated with the end of cash. This is an equivocation fallacy, where those who benefit from the end of cash, have muddled our minds by equating the rise of digital payments to the end of cash. It is unders...

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/the-silence-of-the-celebrities-1224618.html
 
 
05Jun2023 Tweet - Jim Bianco - my Twitter was hacked - hacking - VPN - phone SIM card hacking - Twitter account -
 
- Tweet reply: "Never ever use 2FA over SMS." - Yubikey
 
 
26Apr2023 Tweet - Dasarte Yarnway -  
 
 - US retirement savings - IRA - Roth IRA -  retirement accounts - retirement plans - taxable account - tax deferred account

 
27Apr2023 Tweet - Ramit Sethi - 
 
 - US retirement savings - IRA - Roth IRA -  retirement accounts - retirement plans - taxable account - tax deferred account
 

 
08Jun2023 Tweet - Rachael Camp -  
 
- US retirement savings - IRA - Roth IRA -  retirement accounts - retirement plans - HSA -


 
 
23May2021 X Post - Your 'no nonsense coffee guide' - fun - meme - 





04Sep2023 X Post -  Sanatana Dharma na enna da?

Kushubu ku koil kattradu

fun - meme - Kushboo -



 
29Sep2023 Wikimedia  - Berthold Wolte and his problem pictures - painting - meme - fun - electricity bill oil on cavas -
 
 

Der Brief (The Letter) -



 
 
01Aug2023 video - why my clock stops at 16.23 hours  - fun - meme - this sneaky TV setting will ruin your picture quality -
 
 
11Nov2023 Tom Gauld - fun - meme - cartoon - a chair for readers -
 

 

12Oct2023 Tom Gauld - fun - meme - cartoon -
 
your daily reminder >

Our Blessed Homeland vs Their Barbarous Wastes 
 
Our glorious leader vs their wicked despot 
 
Our great religion vs Their primitive superstition 
 
Our noble populace vs Their backward savages 
 
Our heroic adventures vs Their brutish invaders
 

 
 
25Jul2023 Reading Poses - Illustration by Benji Davies; source: "A Velocity of Being: Letters to a Young Reader" by Maria Popova (@brainpicker) - meme - fun - cartoon -

Reading poses > à°ªుà°¸్తక à°­ంà°—ిమలు > 



 
 
08Jun2023 Tweet - Meb Faber  - trading options - stock investing - meme - fun - humour -
 
- Jason Zweig's quote: "I put two children through Harvard by trading options. Unfortunately, they were my broker's children."
 

 
08Jun2023 Tweet -  Paul Couvert - access Adobe Firefly (Beta) - create AI images - artificial intelligence -
 
 
09Jun2023 Maya Numerals -  Mathematics - numbers -



 
 
06Jun2023 MKBHD video - Marques Brownlee -  Apple Vision Pro Impressions - Apple video - more on Apple Vision Pro

- gadgets - Apple - VR - AR - AR / VR headset - augmented reality - virtual reality - visionOS - 
 
- Vision Pro is a standalone headset (you need not own other Apple products, like, an iPhone or Mac) 
 
- uses powerful M2 chip

- it uses eye tracking and hand tracking

- EyeSight: An outward display reveals your eyes while wearing Vision Pro, letting others know when you are using apps or fully immersed.
 
- spatial computing 
 
- 3D interface
 
- Optic ID
 
- blends digital content with your physical space 

- navigate simply by using your eyes, hands and voice

- What does it do? 1) computing 2) connections 3) content

- it's not for the masses (priced at USD 3,499; to be released next year)
 
- external battery: only two hours battery
 
- Apple event -  WWDC 2023 event 

- Apple operating systems

   iOS (for iPhone)
   macOS
   iPadOS
   watchOS
   visionOS
 
 
08Jun2023 BL -  EU carbon tax to test India's mettle 
 
- carbon tax - carbon border tax or CBT - ESG - 

- Starting January 2026, the Indian steel, cement, aluminium, and fertiliser industries will pay steep Carbon Border Tax (CBT) imposed by the European Union (EU). The US, Canada, and other nations are also exploring similar mechanisms. 
 
- the highest tax is on developing countries like India. Steel and aluminium sectors have high emission intensity and hence would attract high taxes. The estimated tax for steel made from the blast furnace route is 39.6 per cent, and using an electric arc furnace is 19.8 per cent. The tax is zero if steel is made using green hydrogen as fuel and a reducing agent.
 
- Indian firms risk losing market share to EU-based producers or those in other more carbon-efficient nations. CBT will affect substantial exports as the EU is an important trade partner for India.
 
- Most Chinese and Russian firms use the blast furnace routes to make steel, while many Indian and South Korean firms use electric arc furnaces, a more carbon-efficient process.
 
 
Jun2023 NBER working paper - full PDF -  Top Talent: Elite Colleges, and Migration: Evidence from the IITs

 

by Prithwiraj Choudhury, Ina Ganguli and Patrick Gaulé

 

Copyright material

 

-- We study migration using a novel dataset of Indian high school students taking the Joint Entrance Exam (JEE), a college entrance exam used for admission to the prestigious Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT). We find a high incidence of migration, up to eight years, after students complete college: among the top 1,000 scorers on the exam, 36% have migrated abroad, rising to 62% for the top 100 scorers.

 

-- Highly skilled immigrants make important contributions to innovation and technology in the United States. Often, they study in elite universities in their home countries before getting advanced degrees abroad

 

-- For example, many successful Indian immigrants in the technology industry—including Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet Inc./Google, and Arvind Krishna, the CEO of IBM—are undergraduate alumni of the selective Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs)

 

-- others include Sun Microsystems co-founder Vinod Khosla, and former IMF Chief Economist Raghuram Rajan

 

-- We focus on the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs). The IITs are prestigious and highly selective technical universities with lower acceptance rates than Ivy League colleges, particularly for the original five IIT Campuses

 

-- the original and Top 5 IITs are: IIT Kharagpur, IIT Bombay, IIT Madras, IIT Kanpur and IIT Delhi

 

-- The first of these higher technical institutions—called the Indian Institute of Technology— was founded in 1951 in Kharagpur. Over the following decade, another four IIT campuses opened: in Bombay (1958), Kanpur (1959), Madras (1959), and Delhi (1961). The five original IITs were spread across the country, each located in a different region

 

-- IIT Roorkee, IIT Guwahati, or BHU Varanasi, which are organized along similar lines of TOP 5 IITs, are relatively less prestigious

 

-- Admission to the IITs is solely through the Joint Entrance Exam (JEE), where nearly one million exam takers compete for less than ten thousand spots

 

-- IIT students have even been described as “America’s most valuable import from India”

 

--  IIT degrees have signaling value

 

-- students attending elite universities may become part of a network of successful alumni and faculty, many of whom have migrated, and this network can facilitate migration -- prior literature has shown the role of such diaspora networks in lowering migration costs and increasing migration flows

 



 
 
Tweet 04Jun2023 - PSU (public sector undertaking) Rail Stocks and their one-year stock performance > most of these PSU Rail stocks owned by Gov't of India have given decent to spectacular returns in the past one year. #Railways
 

 
 
 
03Jun2023 BS -  Foods division gives ITC an appetite for diversification
 
- Sunrise - Sproutlife Foods - Savlong - B Natural - Nimyle - Yoga Bar - Mother Sparsh - Mylo - Dal Bukhara - Aashirvaad - Sunfeast - Bingo! - Yippee! - Classmate 



 
01Jun2023 The Economist - It’s not just a fiscal fiasco: greying economies also innovate less -   video 16Feb2023 "ADAMO 2050 - A true story from the future - a film by Plasmon"
 
- innovation - patents - brain freeze - baby bust - fertility rate - Plasmon -  demographic decline - demographics - savings rate - investment rate -

- The short film made for Plasmon, an Italian brand of baby food owned by Kraft-Heinz, a giant American firm, is set in 2050

- the rapid ageing of many countries around the world will be bad not just for certain industries, or for governments whose costs rise as their revenues decline--the falling number of educated young workers entering the labour market will also reduce innovation, sapping economic growth across the board
 
- fertility rates  (the number of children a typical woman will have over her lifetime) of Japan and Italy fell below 2.1 in the 1970s -- that level is known as the replacement rate, since it keeps a population stable over time -- anything lower will eventually lead to a declining population
 
- The median Italian is now 47; the median Japanese 49
 
- By 2021,  124 countries and territories recorded fertility rates below 2.1 (UN data)
 
- There’s a global convergence in women’s aspirations for careers and family life, reducing fertility rates
 
- The 15 biggest economies in the world, including Brazil, China, India and Mexico, all have fertility rates below 2.1
 
- The obvious way to compensate for dwindling birth rates is immigration
 
- greyer population will mean higher spending on public pensions and health care, but there will be fewer people of working age to pay the taxes required
 
- Labour is one of the three main determinants of growth, along with capital and the efficiency with which both are used (productivity) -- shrinking workforces lead to lower economic growth
 
-  an ageing population will reduce both savings and investment
 
- Younger people have more of “fluid intelligence”, meaning the ability to solve new problems and engage with new ideas -- Older people have more “crystallised intelligence”—a stock of knowledge about how things work built up over time
 
- the percentages of patents (for innovation) filed in Japan has been declining, as Japan started ageing since 1970s (entreprenue vacuum)
 
-  Hungary and Poland give income-tax credits and flat payments to encourage women to have more children -- Singapore offers large grants to the parents of new children, which now run to S$11,000 ($8,300) for the first two children, and S$13,000 for any more, on top of tax rebates and child-care subsidies
 
- fertility rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa
 
 
 
02Jun2023 FT - US Senate passes bill to end debt ceiling stand-off and avoid default - US debt default - US debt ceiling limit - 

- The US Senate has approved (on 01Jun2023) a fiscal deal between the White House and congressional Republicans, ending a weeks-long political stand-off that risked triggering an unprecedented debt default in the world’s largest economy
 
- Lawmakers in the upper chamber passed the bill with overwhelming bipartisan support on Thursday evening, with 63 backing the legislation and 36 opposed
 
- The bill now heads to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature, just four days before the US Treasury projected it would run out of cash to pay all its bills
 
- The agreement raises the US borrowing limit until 2025 and sets new caps on government spending for the next two years, putting more restrictions on US fiscal policy until at least after the next presidential election
 
-  earlier on 31May2023, The House of Representatives (lower chamber) has passed a bill to raise the US debt ceiling, a victory for Republican Speaker (of the US House of Representatives) Kevin McCarthy that brings Washington closer to averting a historic default
 
- The House voted 314 - 117 on 31May2023 in favour of the bill, after 165 Democrats sided with 149 Republicans and allowed McCarthy to see off a rebellion from some members of his own party
 
- In addition to burnishing McCarthy’s credentials, a law stemming from bipartisan dealmaking would signal Washington is still able function at a time of heightened political polarisation
 
 
- in the current (118th) United States Congress, Republicans have control over the House of Representatives by a razor-thin margin -- Republican Kevin McCarthy is the current speaker (preceded by Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat) of the House of Representatives
 
- in the current (118th) United States Congress, Democrats have control over the Senate -- the current president of the Senate is vice president Kamala Harris (as per the US Constitution, it's the vice president's job to preside over the Senate)

 
 
 
01Jun2023 SEBI - SEBI Master Circular for Electronic Gold Receipts - EGR - EGRs -  valult managers - securities under SCRA, 1956 - 

03Jun2023 Tweet - height of SBI Yono advertisement - ad - meme - fun - humour 



 
 
27Feb2020 Tweet -  Focus on what you can control - Carl Richards - meme - cartoon - 



 
09May2023 Tweet - Focus on what you can control 



 
23May2023 Tweet: "A large number of WFH office jobs in the US will move to India over the next 5 years" - prediction - trend - 



 
21May2023 MoneyControl - SEBI proposals my make funds cheaper and more transparent - article 27May2023 - article 23May2023 - article 28Jan2023 - Kayezad E Adajania 

- AMCs - mutual funds - expense ratios - churning - NFO - TER - brokerage expenses -  performance linked fee - 


20May2023 Tweet - fun - meme - humour -
 
- note ban - Rs 2000 note - 



 
26May2023 Tweet - fun - meme - humour - cartoon
 
- note ban - Rs 2000 note - 
 

 
 
31May2023 Tweet - crash in valuationof Indian Unicorns  
 
- Gupshup - Byju's - Meesho - Eruditus - Swiggy 



 
08May2023 BQ Prime -  Cross Border Activities in India Need More Freedom, Not Less by Ajay Shah and Pratik Datta - XKDR Forum - capital account convertibility - current account convertibility -

- India's big story is Information Technology or IT Services exports, with global players like, TCS and Infosys leading -- the following Indian gov't policies have helped in the IT sector growth - 1) setting up IIMs and IITs led to kindling of scientific and management knowledge, 2) reforms in Telecom industry giving primary to the private sector, 3) the equity market reforms of 1990s with creation of National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) and capital market regulator SEBI or Securities and Exchange Board of India, and 4) reduction of barriers to cross-border (current and capital account) transactions
 
- IIM is Indian Institute of Management
- IIT is Indian Insititute of Technology 

- "Finance follows trade"

- Political freedom and rule of law are hard to reconcile with capital controls
 
-  Under Indian socialism, the FERA, 1973 imposed severe restrictions on cross-border financial activities
 
-  Under FERA, a person travelling abroad had to seek foreign exchange permission from RBI; individuals were given a quota of USD 8 per day when travelling abroad

- in August 1994, India formally adopted current account convertibility, by accepting the obligations under Article VIII of the International Monetary Fund's Articles of Agreement
 
- From 1997 to 2003, various current account restrictions on residents were gradually liberalised
 
- RBI's LRS or Liberalised Remittance Scheme greatly enhanced the financial freedoms of Indians
 
- Many Indians now lead a substantially cross-border life, with a spectrum of connections ranging from travel to work visas
 
- these reforms also paved the way for foreign investment (FDI and FPI), which made the market value of Indian software and services companies possible
 
- but these reforms did not add up to true convertibility on the current account
 
- a limit of USD 250,000 for LRS per year is meaningless if you want to give full rupee convertibility on the current account
 
- in the backdrop, PM Modi gov't introduced three new curbs on current acount activities:
 
   1) Section 206C (1G) of the Income Tax Act, 1961, was introduced in 2020. It required, for the first time, 5% of certain remittance transactions under the LRS route to be collected from the buyer (or person remitting), as income-tax collected at source (5% TCS), and
 
   2)  This 5% TCS is now increased to 20% TCS as per The Finance Act 2023 effective 01Jul2023, widening the ambit of current account transactions subject to 20% TCS

    3) a resident individual was earlier not required to repatriate funds, or income generated out of investments made under the LRS route. This rule was suddenly changed in August 2022. Any foreign exchange acquired through the LRS route, unless ‘reinvested’, must now be compulsorily repatriated or surrendered by a resident individual, within a period of 180 days from the date of acquisition. This legal change imposes a significant transaction cost on Indians who may wish to hold foreign exchange abroad in a deposit account, to engage in legitimate international transactions such as foreign travel, business, etc
 
- India and China are less open to capital account; meaning they impose more restrictions on capital account activities
 
- In 2006, Menzie D. Chinn and Hiro Ito introduced an index to measure de jure financial openness of countries across the world

 - The Chinn Ito index >




13Jun2023 BL - IEX: Too many movings parts makes it a wait-and-watch

- Indian Energy Exchange - MBED - market coupling - NLDC 


09Jun2023 BS -  IEX plunges 15%, hits 52-week low amid market coupling worries - Indian Energy Exchange

- corporate - stock investing - know your company - 

- Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) hit a 52-week low of Rs 116, freezing at the 15 per cent lower circuit on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in intra-day trade on 09Jun2023 on reports that the Power Ministry has directed the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) to implement the process of market coupling in a timely manner.
 
-  Market coupling refers to forming of a single power trading entity owned by the government where price discovery will happen with power getting dispatched to short-term power trading platforms.

- IEX is a market leader and has the highest volumes in terms of power trading. This will dry up volumes in a significant manner for IEX among other power trading platforms and snatch away the moat of creating liquidity and price discovery by IEX, ICICI Securities said in a note.


-  IEX is India’s premier energy exchange providing a nationwide, automated trading platform for physical delivery of electricity, renewable energy and certificates including renewable energy certificates as well as the energy saving certificates. The exchange platform enables efficient price discovery and increases the accessibility and transparency of the energy market in India while also enhancing the speed and efficiency of trade execution.

 

- While an increase in power demand is expected in the coming months, the supply-side liquidity is likely to further improve due to enhanced coal supply, reduction in e-auction coal prices and consistently declining imported coal and gas prices

- another article BL 09Jun2023 on the same IEX stock plunge 

- Under ‘market coupling’, there will be one single market-cleared price common to all the three exchanges. This means that the three exchanges will merely collect bids and submit the bids to whosoever is appointed as the agency to determine the common price. This is like some agency determining a common price for Uber, Ola, Blusmart, etc. Essentially, this means that the dominant exchange (IEX) will lose its mojo, because unlike now, under market coupling there would be no particular reason for a bidder to choose IEX over the other two exchanges.  

- MBED or market-based economic dispatch 

- Grid Controller of India Ltd (formerly Power System Operation Corporation Ltd or POSOCO)  - National Load Despatch Centre or NLDC

- PIB press release dated 04Jan2022

 

08Jun2023 Tweet  CNBC TV18 video - during last half-hour trading on 08Jun2023, the stock of IEX (Indian Energy Exchange) fell by 8.2 percent to close for the day at Rs 136.50, on rumours of Ministry of Power asking CERC to implement 'market coupling'
 
- corporate - stock investing - know your company - 
 
 
18May2023 - Blue Dart Express - corporate - stock investing - logistics sector - express courier -

valuation and other screenshots >







13May2023 Tweet - Tren Griffin - "In 2011, Groupon was valued at $25 billion, and the company went public that fall, raising $700 million in the largest tech initial public offering since Google. The market capitalization as of 12May2023 is about $100 million."
 
- corporate - red flag - stock investing -
 
 
31May2023 The Hindu -  Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos enters Texas prison to begin her 11-year jail sentence 
 
- corporate fraud - red flag - stock investing - behaviour bias - blood testing - Tweet 31May2023 on authority bias

- don't be enamoured of big shots in a company's Board of Directors -- famous people like, George Shultz and Henry Kissinger were part of Theranos' Board of Directors -- as investors, we should not fall for this authority bias and invest in companies which are familiar with famous people --

"Together, Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh Balwani promised Theranos would revolutionise health care with a technology that could quickly scan for diseases and other problems with a few drops of blood taken with a finger prick.

"The hype surrounding that purported breakthrough helped Theranos raise nearly $1 billion from enthralled investors, assemble an influential board of directors that include former Presidential cabinet members George Shultz, Henry Kissinger and James Mattis and turned Holmes into a Silicon Valley sensation with a fortune valued at $4.5 billion on paper in 2014."

 

 
29May2023 Margin collection by trading members - 80% margin release facility available on T + 0 day till 28May2023 for investors will no longer be available from 02May2023 as per new rules  > Tweet 15May2023 from Kotak Securities >
 


 
 
26May2023 BCG - Most Innovative Companies May2023 PDF - Apple Inc, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Moderna, Samsung, etc. - innovation - technology - research - R&D -
 
 





16May2023 Knight Frank Wealth Sizing Model - HNWI - UHNWI - Morningstar article -

- The Knight Frank Wealth Sizing Model reveals how deep your pockets need to be to join the wealthiest 1% in selected countries and territories. The wealth needed to join the 1% ranks varies sharply from country to country
 
- for example, in India you need USD 175,000 or Rs 1.44 crore of wealth to be top 1 percent of the wealthiest




 
26May2023 Knight Frank The Wealth Report 2023 17th Edition PDF -

-- HNWI: High-net-worth individual – someone with a net worth of USD 1 million or more, including their primary residence.


-- UHNWI: Ultra-high-net-worth individual – someone with a net worth of USD 30 million or more, including their primary residence

 

-- prime property: most desirable and most expensive property

 

-- ‘permacrisis’ – year 2022 delivered energy, economic and geopolitical shocks and is described as a year of ‘permacrisis’

 

-- Total wealth held by UHNWIs globally shrank by 10% during 2022, a drop of some USD 10.1 trillion

 

-- Global mobility has long been a must-have for wealthy investors, fuelling demand for second passports, visas and citizenships.

 

-- While the UK, as well as the EU and US, still attract considerable numbers of globally footloose wealthy residents, it is undeniable that Singapore and Dubai are emerging as critical wealth hubs.

 

-- primary goals for HNWI wealth in 2023:

 

1) capital appreciation 31%

2) capital preservation 26%

3) income generation 23%

4) diversification 14%

5) impact investing / philanthropy 6% 

 

World's most connected cities are London, Dubai, Frankfurt, etc. > screenshot below >

 

Total wealth allocated to: 1) primary and secondary homes, 2) equities 3) commercial property and so on... > screenshot below >

 




 
23May2023 Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class A share price reached USD 500,000 for the first time in second week of March of 2022. After reaching USD 540,000 in the last week of Mar2022, its price dropped below USD 500,000. 
 
- again on 17Mar2023, Berkshire Class A share price reached USD 500,000 and as on 22Mar2023, it's still above USD 500,000 a share

 
18May2023 PBS video - Nova PBS Official - web archive - Your Brain: Perception Deception - documentary - brain connections - brain memory - consciousness - science - neuroscientist Heather Berlin
 
- check from 37:36 in the video for toddler vs adult brain >
 


 
 
17May2023 Elon Musk of Tesla says, "The only real currency is time. Time is the only true currency." 
 
 
Tweet 18May2023 - This is copied from a four-year-old tweet by Mr Karthik Nagesan - copy paste -

 "My parents had a tv like this... I remember because, I was the remote..."  - Television - Humour - Fun 
 

 
 
14Jan2012 Indian Express -  The Irony Mask by Jaithirth Rao (aka Jerry Rao) - Jerry Rao old columns - Citi Bank - Mphasis Ltd -
 
- Cho Ramaswamy (Srinivasa Iyer Ramaswamy) - Tughlak - film / movie script - screenplay - fun - humour - wit - cartoon -

- one of Cho's early plays — 'Saraswatiyin Shapatam' 
 
- great Indian writers all the way from Kalidasa to Kanna-dasan (a well-known Tamil lyricist)
 
- Kalidasa (slave of goddess Kali); Kanna-dasan (slave of Kanna or Krishna in Tamil)
 
- our own friendly script writer decides to call himself 'Dasanu-dasan' (slave of slaves)
 

18May2023 Home First Finance Company India Ltd - housing finance - stocks - investing - know your company - 

- Jerry Rao is one of founders of this company (he may not be holding any shares now -- he may have sold his shares after the company's IPO - listed on 03Feb2021
 
- house loans - small ticket loans

- stock is under pressure recently (down 30% from 52-week high) due to possible exit of private equity firms, which are now official promoters of company

- CMP is Rs 698, market cap Rs 6,150 crore

- check valuation: one,    two,     three
 
- 3-year CAGR growth rates: sales  24%, net profit 42% 
 
- current ROE 13%

- ICRA Rating AA- (double A minus)

- 6-year AUM CAGR 43%

- CRAR (Tier 1) 48.9% and return on assets (ROA) 3.9%

-  concentrated in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana (70% of gross loans from these 4 states)

- gross NPA 1.6% and net NPA 1.1%

- small ticket loans means higher distress for company's loans in case of economic distress in lower middle class population

 
 
 
17May2023 MoneyLife - Govt of India (GOI) launches to track, recover lost mobile phones - cell phone - cellphone -
 
- Dept of Telecom - Sanchar Saathi portal

- block your lost / stolen mobile phone - CEIR - Central Equipment Identity Register - CEIR FAQs (scroll down)

- KYM - know your mobile - dial *#06# to know whether IMEI number is genuine or black-listed or already in use - IMEI is international mobile equipment identity

- know your mobile connections - know the number of mobile connections in your name - TAFCOP - TAFCOP FAQs (scroll down)
 

03Dec2023 Tweet (X post) - India political map - political map of India
 
- after declaration of state assembly polls on 03Dec2023 (also compare with 2018 map)
 


 
 
14May2023 Tweet - India political map - political map of India

- changes since Dec2014 till now - state assembly polls 


13May2023 Tweet - Changing political footprint India -  political map of India - BJP has no footing in South India - Indian federalism - India political map - population and land area of BJP vs non-BJP state governments -
 

 
 
13May2023 Tweet - Dhruv Rathee - political map of India - BJP has no footing in South India - Indian federalism - India political map -



 
13May2023 Scroll -  BJP loses assembly polls to Congress party - political map of India - BJP has no footing in South India - Indian federalism - India political map -

- The Indian Union has 30 Assemblies (28 states and two Union territories with legislature) - after the Karnataka defeat, the BJP is now in power only in 15 of these - two major states in this, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, have BJP government not because the party won elections but due to defections it engineered to pull down non-BJP governments
 
- based on 2011 Census numbers, BJP is in power in states with 45% of total India's population -
 



13May2023 University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers - Mar2023 -  University of Michigan   Index: Buying Conditions for Houses  - Index's 50-year graph in PDF - US economy - Housing prices - housing conditions -

- The lower the Index, the worse the conditions for buying houses in the US
 
- now in May2023, the conditions for buying houses seem to be at worst in 40 years



 
13May2023 Tweet - Marques Brownlee - MKBHD - Tech - Google / Alphabet and Apple Inc collaboration? - Android OS and AirTag - unknown AirTag detection - 


10May2023 ProSyn -  Winners and Losers in the AI Arms Race - AI - artificial intelligence - chatGPT - OpenAI - generative AI - LLM - large language model -
 
- The first rule of forecasting, as per, the financial journalist Jane Bryant Quinn is: give them a forecast or give them a date; just never give them both  - anecdote - 
 
- with the steam engine commercialized by Matthew Boulton and James Watt, Great Britain emerged as the first industrial country and its navy ruled the seas-- after this, handicraft industries in countries like China and India were rendered uncompetitive, causing per capita incomes to stagnate and even fall - anecdote -

- the first mover advantage for the US in generative AI is not guaranteed 

- Netscape Navigator was a first mover for web browsers, but it was unable to hold its early lead over Microsoft’s Internet Explorer and other rivals - anecdote - Marc Andreessen
 
- cellphone adoption advanced more quickly in Europe than the US - Nokia became a market leader partly because Europe developed a common G2 standard for cellular networks, whereas the US adopted a confusing mishmash of incompatible standards  - anecdote -


12May2023 Tweet thread - Rez Karim -  "Google just released ChatGPT's strongest competitor yet - Bard It's free to use and comes with 10X more features. Here are some of the craziest things only Bard can do ( ChatGPT cannot)" - ChatGPT - chatbot - Alphabet - AI - OpenAI - artificial intelligence - 


 
12May2023 Ambuja Cements Ltd places order for cement capacity expansion of 14 MMT (million metric tonnes) 
 
- this brownfield expansion of 14 MMT is part of company's strategy to double its current production of 67.5 MMT (combined Ambuja Cements and ACC Ltd) in the next five years
 
- to expand cement capacity at Bhatapara (Chattisgarh) and Maratha (Maharashtra) units
 
- these projects to be completed in 24 months and entire capex will be funded from internal accruals
 
(there is no such announcement today from its subsidiary ACC Limited) 
 
 - in a related announcement on 12May2023, Ambuja Cements announced that it was chosen as preferred bidder for Devalmari Katepally Limestone Block in Gadchiroli District, Maharashtra - the block is in an area of 538 hectares with estimated limestone resource of 150 million tonnes with CaO (calcium oxide) content of 42%


 
11May2023 CNBC TV18 - video - Mangalam Maloo speaks to Ashwin Dani, key promoter of Asian Paints - 
 
Mangalam Maloo asks, "What keeps you going, Mr Dani?"
 
Ashwin Dani responds, "I eat paints, I dream paints and I drink paints." - anecdote - 

 
10May2023 Sohn Investment Conference - Kiril Sokoloff talks to Stanley Druckenmiller - The Transcript -
 
- I make a living doing macro forecasts
 
- Fed independence will be preserved I suppose
 
- huge liquidity from 2009 to 2021 via QE 
 
- trouble follows asset bubbles - 
 
- when you've free money for 11 years (2009 to 2021), people do stupid things
 
- I like concentrated bets 
 
- I like fat pitches and swing big; when I don't see a fat pitch and I stand there and let the pitches go by

- I'm very negative on US stock market

- be open-minded and if there is a hard landing (probably in Q4 of 2023 or Q1 of 2024 though timing recessions is hard), there will be unbelievable opportunities 
 
- When British prime  minister Liz Truss wanted to provide fiscal stimulus, the market immediately shut them down (Truss had to resign due to market chaos in Oct2022) and they immediately went to a more responsible form of government 
 
- conditions for recession: asset bubbles, problems in commercial real estate (CRE), CRE losses could spread to banks, credit card losses, rapid increase in interest rates in the US in the past 15 months, etc. - as a risk manager I've to consider all these things

- we own Microsoft Corp and NVIDIA Corp and thereby we're participating in the growth of AI (artificial intelligence); I think companies would benefit from AI

- I won gold and silver; but I could be wrong and could change my mind on gold and silver in a week or two

- debt ceiling row in the US Congress is depressing to me - not passing the debt ceiling limit in time would be a catastrophe for American Capitalism

-- it's a lie if politicians say they are not cutting our entitlements -- our entitlements (like, social security and others) will have to be cut in future without doubt -- interest burden and fiscal deficit in the US are very high and they can't be sustained forever

- Israel is a best example of opposite of 'resource curse' - Israel doesn't have any natural resources but still they do well - they have outperformed rest of the Middle East which has all the resources - anecdote - 
 
(are 'resource curse' and 'dutch disease' the same thing?)

- the US dollar 'reserve currency' status is a privilege; but we should not misuse the privilege by running large unsustainable deficits 

- Joe Biden Administration made a terrible mistake in isolating Saudi Arabia's MbS (Mohammed bil Salman) - MbS is 37 years old and wildly popular not only in Saudi Arabia but in the entire Middle East - he's a dynamic leader - he appears to be trying to make a hegemony in the ME - he brought Xi Jinping of China - he mended fences with Iran - MbS is trying to create an autocratic block -

- I've three daughters and give full credit to my wife for raising them well and giving them good values

- intellectual stimulation: I just happen to be good at compounding money, I love the business, I love the intellectual stimulation of knowing every event in the world, how security prices change and try to figure out the puzzle

 
25Nov2022 Tweet thread - long thread  - by Barry Ritholtz - Elon Musk's failure of Twitter takeover - merger - acquisition - corporate - corporate failure - Tesla -

-- other failures - Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital Management - Adam Neumann of WeWorks -  

 
04May2023 Real Vision video - Big Picture: The casualties of the Fed Policy - ZIRP - 
 

 
 
08May2023 BS India - High pension recipients can get short-changed in bailouts - by Harsh Roongta -  
 
- EPF - EPFO - EPS - salary - employee - 



 
09May2023 Tweet - No country can beat India in innovation! 
 
Why I'm bullish on iPhone sales in India!

- Apple Inc - iPhone - GST - business - 







 
07May2023 BS India - Behind the K-Shaped Growth by Debashis Basu - @MoneyLifers - India growth - inequality - lopsided - corruption -
 

 
 
09May2023 Nexus Select Trust - REIT - REITs - BSE IPO weblink -  IPO starts 09May and closes 11May - price band Rs 95 - Rs 100 - ICICI Direct research report on IPO - 17 retail malls across the country -

-- sponsor is Wynford Investments Ltd (Blackstone)

-- Investment manager is Nexus Select Mall Management Pvt Ltd

 
04May2023 Kenvue - Kenvue Inc is a pure-play consumer health company -- it was separated from Johnson & Johnson Inc (J&J) recently - stock - stock investing - IPO -
 
-- Kenvue stock started trading in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on 04May2023

-- Kenvue's brands include BAND-AID, Tylenol, Benadryl, Aveeno, Nutrogena, Johnson's and Listerine
 

06Sep2023video David Rubenstein talks to Jeremy Grantham of GMO – Bloomberg Wealth – investing – stock investing –

 

- the US Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening in four decades could tip the economy into recession and take the stock market with it

 

- In the end, life is simple. Low rates push up asset prices. Higher rates push asset prices down

 

- deflation in the US has been delayed by the frenzy surrounding artificial intelligence or AI

 

- personally, I think AI is very important. But I think it’s perhaps too little too late to save us from a recession

 

- we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year (2024) and an accompanying decline in stock prices

 

- rising interest rates, deflationary forces and depressing real estate market could lead to recession in the US

 

- The Fed’s record on these things is wonderful. It’s almost guaranteed to be wrong. They have never called a recession, and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles. They prided themselves in stimulating the bubbles. They took credit for the beneficial effect of higher asset prices on the economy. They have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking.

 

- inflation is largely out of the hands of the US Fed

 

- I suspect inflation will never be as low as it averaged for the last 10 years, that we have reentered a period of moderately higher inflation, and therefore moderately higher interest rates

 

- My job description these days at GMO, I haven’t done traditional stock work for 15 years, is working on long-term, underrated problems. We have shortages of resources. We have shortages of manpower. A population bust the like of which we have never seen, particularly in a few countries like China. We have an incredible growth in inequality, which I think is the poison in the political system. And we have a great surge of toxicity. I think we’ve made our planet unfavorable to life in every form, including homo sapiens. And these are real issues. They’re moving incredibly fast. They threaten perhaps the existence of a stable global society.

 

- I’m pleased to say 95% of my money is in a foundation. I co-manage the foundation. I’m advised by Cambridge Associates. And we are invested 75% in early-stage venture capital, which most people would consider a bizarre concentration. We consider it the best part of capitalism and very much the best part of American capitalism. American venture capital industry is the pride and joy of the venture capital world — bigger and better — attracts people from all over the world.

 

- even a smart man like Sir Isaac Newton could not resist bubbles - he mortgaged his house and put money into stock market in South Sea bubble and lost all his money. Humans can’t resist being in bubbles because there is nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbours get rich - anecdote -

 

- the most common mistake investors make is they become too enthusiastic about markets

 

- investors are better off investing in a global index fund (fully outside of the US) – only invest outside the US for the time being – only the US stock prices are overpriced, non-US markets are not that overpriced


 
 
28Jun2023 video: David Rubenstein talks to RockCreek Founder & CEO Afsaneh Beschloss – Bloomberg Wealth –

 

- social impact investment strategy – she was born in pre-revolutionary Iran –

- her global investment firm RockCreek manages assets worth USD 17 billion

 

“My mother taught me how not to cook so that I could do other things.” --> this is probably the best advice one can give for young girls

 
09Aug2023 video - David Rubenstein talks to Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd (listed in Toronto, Canada) - Bitcoin - Ethereum - crypto - 
 

– recorded on 26Jul2023 in New York



– in 2013, I invested about USD 3 million when Bitcoin was quoting at USD 100 a piece


– in reaction to COVID-19 Pandemic when central banks were printing huge money, Bitcoin as a macro asset gained from USD 8,000 to USD 17,000


– (referring to FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried) I never assumed I was dealing with a sociopath


– Crypto exchanges and players that went down during crypto winter of 2022 were FTX, Celsius, Terra, Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, etc.


– Mike Novogratz has a tattoo with ‘Terra’ (TerraUSD stable coin collapsed in May2022); I also have a bitcoin tattoo 

 

-- the now-infamous tattoo on his arm — a wolf howling at the moon with the word “Luna” — serves as a “good reminder of hubris,” Novogratz said 

– what gives something value is not the technology, it is the social construct – you say it’s valuable and I say it’s valuable, therefore it’s valuable - anecdote -

 

-- I see more institutions coming back to crypto  -- He pointed to PayPal Holdings’ launch of a stablecoin on Monday and Deutsche Bank’s application for crypto custody services as examples

– BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has been 'orange-pilled,' or converted from being Bitcoin (BTC) nonbeliever into a believer - Mike called Larry the most important thing that happened this year in bitcoin (in June this year, BlackRock applied to SEC to list a spot bitcoin ETF in the US)

 

-- BlackRock's proposed ETF is part of an 'adoption cycle' for Bitcoin and other crypto currencies 


– (before founding Galaxy Digital Holdings in 2018) I wasn’t going to get back to work unless:


  1. I could find something that I could work with young people,

  2. I learned something new, and

  3. I could make a difference


– Bitcoin is freedom, keep the government out of my business


– (because of unclear US crypto regulations and backlash from SEC’s Gary Gensler and White House against crypto industry) we’re moving some of our offices to London and Hong Kong


– a16z is setting up an office in London (diversifying away from the US)


– Open AI’s Sam Altman recently co-founded a cryptocurrency called ‘Worldcoin’ -- and I don't want to bet against Sam Altman

 

--  Worldcoin uses a small device called an “orb” to scan people’s eyeballs in order to generate a a unique digital identity for online use

– (what is best investment advice you ever received) it’s from Paul Jones who talks about the ‘pain of the game’ – most great fortunes are made in trend and you need to stay with the trend (don’t settle for gains of 100 percent or 200 percent)

 

-- his advice today, for someone who has $100,000 to invest: “If they were young and had a high risk tolerance, I’d be buying Alibaba stock. I’d be buying silver, gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum. That’d be my portfolio.” Those with lower risk tolerance should put 30% in a portfolio like that and 70% in bonds and perhaps an index fund, he said 

– Biotech still fascinates me


– from a societal perspective what worries me is that these technological advances are happening so fast in health, healthcare, biotech and gene editing and yet we’ve cities like Kinshasa where 13 million don’t have electricity – it looks like we’re hurtling to a world that looks like Blade Runner where this elite group of people live this life we could have never imagined and they had the masses that are in this teeming soup 






01Jun2023 video -  David Rubenstein talks to Cliff Asness of AQR (the interview was recorded on 24Apr2023 in Greenich, Connecticut)

- stock investing - quant - quants - hedge fund - value vs growth - Clifford Asness -

“If inflation stays sticky or it comes down because we enter a nontrivial recession —  it’s equities that I think are a scary place,” Cliff Asness, 56, said. “They’re not priced very consistently with bonds.” Still, he said, the US could see “immaculate” disinflation that doesn’t come at the cost of growth.

We started in Aug1998 -- it was the month in which Russia defaulted on its debt. The next 18 months were horrible for our hedge fund.

Asness founded AQR in 1998 with USD 1 billion -- this hedge fund lost 50% of money in the first one year and a half. The fund now manages USD 100 billion. We've 500 to 600 employees.

I live in Greenwich, Connecticut. I meet a lot of private equity investors. They know more about how actual companies work and how to value them than I will ever dream of. What I do worry about for the investors and, again, personally resent, is the reporting of risk and volatility.

My biggest concern and probably our firm's biggest concern is stocks and bonds seem to be taking a very, very different view.

Bonds, whether it’s a risk premium or a forecast of future interest rates — if it’s a forecast of future interest rates, what’s priced into the short term curve is multiple, severe cuts over the next year to two years. That is a recession, and not a mild one, in the forecast.

Equities are, I’m not saying it’s a graveyard, but they’re whistling past that. So that doesn’t mean bonds are right. Equities could be right. You could get what some people have called the immaculate deflation, where inflation comes down and growth doesn’t suffer. But if inflation stays sticky or it comes down because we enter a nontrivial recession — it’s equities that I think are a scary place. They're not priced very consistently with bonds. And we're gonna find out who's right in the next year.


What's the best investment advice you’ve ever received?

Asness: Pretty much every week, my wife tells me, “Stop looking at the screen. You’ll be a happier man,” and she’ll be a happier person married to a happier man.
 
We have a process that involves value investing, trend following, quality investing, looking for positive carry, looking for good momentum. That had suffered a lot from 2018 through 2020, all from the value component.

I think the main thing we did, which was not so easy, was to stick with our process. And then, it kicked in big-time in the last two years (between 2021 and 2023).

When I say "quants” —  I mean practitioners like me, and academics — it’s basically price to fundamentals, if something looks cheap, scaled by some fundamental. We might argue what the best one is. The fundamentals can be price to earnings, free cash flow, some proprietary measure of fundamental strenght.  And the cheap tend to outperform the expensive long term. That is the famous academic value effect.

Stadard 60/40 (60% stocks and 40% bonds) portfolio will do well going forward provided you stick with for the long term of 10 years or more, you don't panic, you don't get greedy, you don't time it. I think under such circumstances, 60/40 portfolio will give decent returns in future. But I'd like to add the 60/40 portfolio will give less returns than they provided in the 20th century.

However, people can do better thatn 60/40 portfolio with uncorrelated or low-correlated diversifiers.

There is no certainty, but we're going to be in a period of macro volatility for a while.

I look at our returns every day, I'm very much involved in day to day operations.

Don't obsess about individual securities in your portfolio; have a wholistic view of your portfolio -- think about how your overall portfolio is doing. Different parts of your portfolio work in different parts of time.

 
17May2023 video -  David Rubenstein talks to Blythe Masters, founding partner, Motive Partners - sports - baseball - Bloomberg Wealth - 
 
- what is the biggest mistake that people make generally in investing? "herd behaviour"

- be diversified, keep some money in fixed income; a certain amount in a very low-risk product and a small amount in higher-risk areas - that advice is age-old and it still applies
 
- Blythe Masters, founding partner of fintech-focused private equity firm Motive Partners, which has roughly $4.8 billion in assets under management

- she is still bullish on blockchain technology, and said she believes it has financial-services applications that remain “underexploited.”
 
- if AI (artificial intelligence) grows too quickly and is unregulated, it will be a big risk because of all of the inherent biases and abuses of the unchecked technology

- a native of Oxford, England, Masters attended Cambridge University where she studied economics - best known for her role helping create credit-default swaps (CDS)

- blockchain technology has applications in the financial services world that as yet are still underexploited.

- some of the loudest voices calling for AI regulation are not coming from the government - they're coming from within the industry itself, from academia who are sufficiently familiar with the power of the technology and its potential for adverse outcomes.

- on whether cash will be gone in 10 or 20 years - "the cash-based economy in the US exists because there isn’t an equivalent social safety net to the one you find in Scandinavian countries; as long as you have people that are unbanked, underbanked or don’t have access to the financial system, you can’t eradicate cash."

- best investment advice I received: "Do your homework." 
 
- focus on the technology because it’s going to change the landscape in financial services over the next few years - focus on trends that are about personalization of services, democratization of access, opening up of new products and capabilities to a wider audience - but also pay attention to the risk of people being left behind (reduce digital divide)

- USD 42 billion worth of deposits were taken out, in just four or five hours in a single day, from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the US in Mar2023 -- due to the power of FinTech (online withdrawal of money from cellphones / mobile phones) and social media messages - bankruptchy - bank run - bankrun - bank failure

- my 30-year-old daughter has achieved success by mostly ignoring everything I ever said to her - she's doing venture capital investing in the area of clean-energy transition and loving it - anecdote -

- the personal touch is really critical - one of the key pieces of advice is to cherish and seek out those relationships that can be truly helpful to you in your career - we still need to maintain relationships and trust, notwithstanding the fact the way we interact is changing (like, Zoom calls and online interaction)
 

 
03May2023 video - David Rubenstein talks to Alex Rodriguez - sports - baseball - Bloomberg Wealth -

Alex Rodriguez, nicknamed "A-Rod", is a former professional Baseball player. He is now a businessman owning A-Rod Corp and a philanthropist.

Alex missed a spot in the Hall of Fame if not for a 2014 suspension for taking performance-enhancing drugs.

Alex was suspended in 2014 for one year for using performance-enhancing drugs. He did not appeal and underwent the suspension. 
 
As a baseball superstar and 25 years old, Alex signed a 10-year USD 252 million contract (the biggest in the history of sport at that time) with Texas Rangers in 2000. His contract was insured by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
 
After three years, Alex joined New York Yankees. In New York, he broke his own record when he signed a 10-year USD 275 million contract. 
 
I'm always process-driven, I've always enjoyed practice more than the game.  

I'm always surrounded with the best people, I always think long term, in terms of decades, not just the short circuit.


I'm a very very careful investor, says Alex. At A-Rod Corp, we shoot for singles and doubles and never strike out.

Warren Buffett always talked about going out and buying the greatest business you can with the best management team, and pay a fair price. Don’t buy an average business and pay a great price.

"One thing I always remember Warren Buffett telling me is there are two rules of investing:  
 
1) Never lose money, and 
 
2) Don’t forget rule number one."

What is the biggest investment mistake people make? Rodriguez answered: "A lot of people overestimate their ability. Just because I’m good at baseball doesn’t mean I’m gonna to be good at investing. You’ve got to work really hard and surround yourself with the best people in the world."

“I would keep it in Treasury bills right now,” said Alex Rodriguez when asked what to do with $100,000. “I would not do anything. Everything to me is still kind of very expensive.”

My father left us when I was 10 years old. My single mom raised us very well.

 
 
05May2023 Livemint - The ownership by domestic investors, individual as well as institutional, in companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) has breached the 25 percent mark for the first time
 
Quoting data from Prime Database, the report mentioned that their share stood at 25.72 percent at the end of the March 2023 quarter, up from 24.44 percent in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the share of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), also rose slightly to 20.56 percent in the March quarter from 20.24 percent as on December 31, 2022, it added.
 
- DII share - FPI share 
 



 
05May2023 Crisil MF Ranking - Crisil Mutual Fund Ranking Booklet as on Mar2023 PDF - Mutual fund categories > Equity, hybrid and debt mutual funds > Index funds and ETFs are clubbed together >
 
03May2023 India Gazette - Gazette Notification by Govt of India, Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance - 
 
- PMLA norms - KYC - Income tax -  immovable property - client money - client stocks - client securities - client bank accounts - CA, ACS and CMA will be held responsible for any illegal / fradulent activities under PMLA - chartered accountant - company secretary - cost and management accountant - Business Standard 04May2023
 
Govt Gazette notification screenshot >



 
03May2023 RBI - Report on Currency & Finance released today - PDF report - 
 
03May2023 Japan Talk - Japaneses art and culture -  138 types of Japanese culture

Ikebana - classical Japanese art of arranging flowers

Bonsai - Japanese art of growing dwarf trees in containers

Origami - Japanese art of folding paper

Kirigami - (similar to Origami) Japanese art of three-dimensional paper folding
 
01May2023 WSJ -  First Republic Bank (FRB) in 2012 gave Mark Zuckerberg (founder and CEO of Facebook, now Meta Platforms) a mortgage loan worth USD 5.95 million with a starting rate of 1.05 percent

- anecdote - bank run - bank failure -
 
The Panic of 1907: JP Morgan and the Money Trust - PDF of this -  bank failures - bank run - banking sector - banking history - John Pierpont Morgan - central bank - liquidity - monopoly - Sherman Antitrust Act - JP Morgan and others acted as a lender of last resort before the Fed was founded - Federal Reserve was founded later - 

30Mar2023 NYT - Jamie Dimon as Rescuer of a Failed Bank - FT article dt 02May2023 - Bloomberg article dt 01May2023 - JPM presentation -  BBG article - WSJ article -
 
01May2023 FDIC - JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, Columbus, Ohio Assumes All the Deposits of First Republic Bank, San Francisco, California
 
-- First Republic Bank or FRB was closed on 01May2023; FRB is taken over  by JP Morgan Chase Bank which will assume all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of FRB

-- FDIC estimates that the cost (cost of bailing out FRB) to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be about $13 billion-- this is an estimate and the final cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership


- failed bank - bank bailout - FDIC - bank rescue - bankruptcy - bank collapse - bank failure - US bank run - bankrun - bank takeover -
 
Failed bank list from FDIC >
 

 
 
 
 
22Mar2020 Tweet -  The Doctor Who Championed Hand - Washing And Briefly Saved Lives - 
 
- died in mental asylum 
 
-- medicine was very primitive till the middle of 19th Century
 
Dr Ignaz Semmelweis of Hungary - worked in a Vienna hospital - 19th century - importance of hand wash - antiseptic rules -
 
 
18Apr2023 Join Colossus - podcast - The Portfolio to Live Longer - Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks to Peter Attia, founder of Early Medical

-- Attia wrote a book on longevity "Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity"
-- longevity - health - slow death - fast death -
 
29Apr2023 Katalyst Wealth - how to read sales figures of real estate companies? - realty sector - investing - stock investing - accounting -  

-- as per AS 115, realty firms since FY 2018-19 need to report their sales figures as per completed contract method (CCM) basis instead of earlier percentage of completion method (POCM) -- CCM is more conservative
 
Illacertus videos -  animated power and history - animation - 
 

02Mar2017 video The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene

31Jan2017 video The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
 
17Feb2022 video The Sword of Damocles 

14Apr2016 video Self-Reliance by Ralph Waldo Emerson


 
27Apr2023 Bloomberg - Nir Kaissar - Stocks beat cash if you could time a recession -  

"According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), there have been 30 recessions since 1871, the longest period for which performance data is available for the S&P 500 Index and its predecessor compilation of US stocks. I looked at how the S&P 500 performed six months before each of those recessions and found that it produced a positive total return 21 times. So even if you knew a recession was coming, you would still most likely be better off in stocks in the months leading up to it."
 
"The good news for mere mortals is that none of that maneuvering around the market is necessary. The best result is likely to be achieved by hanging on to stocks and ignoring the economy. During the periods beginning six months before and ending six months after each of the previous 30 recessions, the market produced a positive total return 22 times. Investors were also amply rewarded for their patience with a median total return of 16%, by far the highest median return of the four scenarios I looked at. And things improved from there as recessions gave way to new booms."  



28Apr2023 The Punjabi Clock - fun - cartoon
 

 
 
22Apr2023 Wealthtrack - video -  Consuelo Mack talks to William Wilby, former portfolio manager, Oppenheimer Global Fund

- investing - stock market - 

-- the irony is Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse was due to the bank owning US Treasury securities (specifically, long-dated ones) on the assets side and owning excess of uninsured deposits on the liabilities side

-- we usually don't blame a bank if it owns too-much of Treasury securities; but SVB collapsed precisely due to unrealised losses in long-dated US Treasury securities after the Fed hiked interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023

-- SVB did not have a problem in its loan portfolio

-- the US banks have a mountain of Treasuries in recent years, because the US government has issued a mountain of Treasuries

-- depositors withdrew money in very short time (just two days) using mobile phone banking apps and spreading news / rumours about SVB troubles (in Mar2023)

-- will blue-collar economy do well in future?

-- solving problems with monetary and fiscal stimulus is not good for the US economy in the long term

-- recession risk in the US is high; it takes longer to play out (for example, in 2008 / 2009 GFC, things took more than one year to play out -- sub-prime crisis, Bear Stearns trouble and Lehman Brothers collapse)

-- because of low interest rates, people have been pushed into a higher risk spectrum

-- infrastructure and energy stocks may do well in future; though these are difficult areas to invest in -- fixed-price contracts, uncertainty of gov't contracts, companies can't control costs and unpredictable profit margins

-- I own Jacob Solutions Inc, Flour Corp, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc, Boeing, ExxonMobil and Cheniere Energy

-- one of my favourite companies in semi-conductor area is ASML Holdings NV, a dutch company -- a monopoly; extreme ultraviolet technology

-- my equity portfolio is balanced between growth and value stocks

-- green energy transition is impossible on currently available technology; oil will continue with us for longer time than people expect

-- carbon is still the most efficient energy source

-- I now own 70% in stocks and 30% in cash (the asset mix was 50:50 during the 2008 crisis) -- I'm always biased towards equities

-- you need to be a lazy investor -- low portfolio churning; don't do too much with your portfolio; remember the Hippocratic oath: "Do no harm"

-- if you hold a balanced, diversified portoflio, it's going to do okay unless you start screwing it up

-- during times of big selling, the risk of screwing up your portfolio is higher


 
27Apr2023 The Print -  “Indian Constitution and laws expire at the border of Uttar Pradesh, as soon as the Delhi border ends,” a designated judge in an MP/MLA court in Uttar Pradesh said about grant of protection to witnesses in cases involving past and present lawmakers.
 
“It’s like when people wear the helmet in Delhi, but remove it as soon as they reach Ghaziabad in UP or Haryana,” the judge told ThePrint. 
 
- court - judge - rule of law - 
 
10Apr2023 France has made it illegal to pay over 1,000 euros in cash 
 
- cash ban - less cash - digital utopia - 
 
 
 

25Apr2023 George Mack on Josh Waitzkin - most interesting person alive -  focus - fun - relaxation - recovery - creativity - 

18Jun2020 Tweet - Wirecard AG shares plunge 66% - missing cash - Germany - fintech - DAX 30 -

- fraud - governance - corporate failure -
 
05Apr2023 Nirvana Laha -  "Piramal Pharma is going to pay a royalty of 0.75% of revenue to Piramal Enterprises for "facilitating loans and advising in investment decisions". Promoters hold 43% of PEL and only 35% of PPL. Neat."
 
-- Abhishek Murarka  - other examples, Sintex Industries - Sintex Plastics -
 
- stock investing - promoter fraud - #Corporate #Fraud #Governance - corporate failure - 
 
04Apr2023 SG - Does 2FA for SIPs ruin the entire point of SIPs? - mutual fund SIP - two factor authentication -
 

 


 
11Dec2021 Alex Avoigt - One day Albert Einstein wrote on the board: 
9 x 1 = 9 
9 x 2 = 18 
9 x 3 = 27
.
.
.
9 x 10 = 91

The chaos started suddenly in the hall bc Einstein made a mistake. Correct answer 9 × 10 =. And all his students ridiculed him.
 
Einstein waited for everyone to be silent and said: "Despite the fact that I analyzed nine problems correctly, no one congratulated me. But when I made one mistake, everyone started laughing. This means that even if a person is successful, society will notice his slightest...mistake. And they'll like that. So don't let criticism destroy your dreams. The only person who never makes a mistake is someone who does nothing."
 
-- science - physics - maths - mathematics - anecdote  



 
01Mar2023 MT Capital -  A lot changes in 123 years - relative sizes of world markets end - 1899 and start - 2023 >

- stock markets - global stock markets - at the end of 1899, the UK was leading in stock markets 

- in 2023, the US is leading with 58.4% share in world global markets - market cap - market capitalisation -
 
 



 
27Mar2023 Jim Bianco - "We see the mistake of underestimating new technology over and over. New technology is disruptive. It changed business models, it alters behaviour. It makes the status quo obsolete. But we often think new technology is just a minor improvement. So, we view it as a marginal productivity increase."
 
 
27Mar2023 Jim Bianco - "We all think  of banks as places to warehouse our money, and in exchange, we want a market interest rate. Regulators see banks as the primary way to fund the economy via loans. They regulate them with this in mind." - bank bailout - SVB - silicon valley bank -
 
 
27Mar2023 Frances Coppola -  "People do not understand the business model of banks. A bank that replaces spread-based income with fee-based income is no longer a bank." - bank bailout - SVB - silicon valley bank - 

Tweet 04May2023 - Bill Ackman - fractional reserve banking system -
 
- US bank collapse - SVB - silicon valley bank -  bank failure - bank run

- oddly, hedge fund managers are supporting bank nationalisation



 
24Mar2023 The Better Letter - Bob Seawright - the index mindset - passive funds - active funds - active vs passive - passive investing - life -
 
-- "Very broadly speaking, the index mindset favors average results over extreme ones, a bird-in-hand over two in the bush, relative over particular truth, function over form, quantity over quality, mandate over merit, efficiency over exploration, passivity over action, predictability over tails, determinism over freedom of choice, mistake avoidance over smart decisions, evolution over revolution, adaptation over reformation, safety over risk, diversification over concentration, preservation over creation, velocity over due diligence, optionality over decisiveness, the general over the specific, and growth over profit."
 
15Sep2021 luttig's learnings - John Luttig - the index mindset  - passive funds - active funds - active vs passive - passive investing - life -
 
19Mar2023 Sahil Bloom - Life's cheat codes everyone should know - life - 
 
13Mar2023: HSBC of the UK acquires Silicon Valley Bank's UK arm for one pound in Mar2023 -- it may be noted  JP Morgan acquired Bear Stearns for two dollars in Mar2008 - US bank bailout -
 
20Apr2023 video - compare Apple stores in India -  Apple BKC vs Apple Saket -
 
-- Apple BKC store is inspired by 'kaali-peeli' taxis and Apple Saket is inspired by Delhi's gates 

-- 100+ staff at BKC store can speak 20 languages collectively, whereas Saket store staff can speak 15 languages collectively




 
19Apr2023 Tweet thread by Brad Setser -  The US dollar is not losing its market share as a reserve currency -

-- US dollar dominance - dedollarisation - 

-- two reasons for the drop in reported dollar reserves in 2022:

    1) bond market valuations declined due to rising US interest  
        rates

    2) the US dollar was sold off in 2022 due to its extreme 
       strength (as reflected in USDX's rise)

 -- FT article dt 19Apr2023 on US dollar losing reserves
 
19Apr2023 Value Research - most actively-traded ETFs in India > Nippon India ETF Nifty bees, Bank bees, Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 ETF and others >



19Apr2023 WSJ - Jason Zweig - Fidelity and State Street Push to Make 401(k)s More Like Pensions
 
-- retirement - annuity - 
 
-- State Street, the world’s fourth-largest asset manager, is launching a 401(k) investment product that lets savers convert their retirement nest eggs into a steady income for life via an annuity in their target-date fund

-- Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest retirement plan provider, plans to integrate a greater array of investment products from itself and others that make regular payments to retirees into its platform starting in 2024. The move would give the 23,000 employers with 41 million workers and retirees that use Fidelity as their 401(k) provider the option to put products with annuities in their retirement plans

-- In 2019, the US Congress passed a law to make it easier for 401(k) plans to offer annuities, but few employers have embraced the option so far.


01Apr2023 WealthTrack - two videos - 01Apr2023 and 08Apr2023 - Christine Benz of Morningstar - Retirement - annuity -

-- Ms Benz recommends a good set of ETFs for US investors to invest in for their retirement saving - 

-- best international ETFs - TIPS - REITs - index funds - put money in different buckets 
 
-- decumulation based on income needs and social security benefits
 
-- several risks for prospective retirees are, like, retirement date risk, sequence risk, inflation risk, healthcare risk and longevity risk 

-- safe withdrawal rate from retirement corpus

-- retirement blind spots


 
Tweet thread 19Apr2023 - The 11-day continuous streak of positive market breadth for BSE 500 index is broken today. The advances - declines ratio (ADR) of BSE 500 has been positive for 11 consecutive trading days between 29Mar2023 and 18Apr2023.
 
19Apr2023 UNFPA -  as per UN Population Dashboard, published on 19Apr2023, India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world 

-- India population is 1,428.60 million (2023)

-- China population is 1,425.70 million (2023)




27Apr2023 Ipca Labs past acquisitions as per Motilal Oswal report > Lyka Labs, Ramdev Chemical, Pisgah Labs, Bayshore Pharma > in April 2023, Ipca Labs announced acquisition of majority stake in Unichem Labs - pharma sector -
 

 
 
26Apr2023 Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd (IBHFL) -  
 
- investing - stock investing - know your company - corporate - 
 
What has changed between Aug2022 (previous notes) and now (Apr2023)?

Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd (IBHFL): Promoter holding is now zero; Sameer Gehlaut, erstwhile co-promoter, is no longer a promoter of the company. Another co-promoter Gagan Banga is still with the company, though his stake too is zero.

Valuation metrics of IBHFL appear to be cheap -- for a good reason; because the street is not sure about the management vision for the company and how they will grow the asset size and profitability of the company. (please check the following three images for metrics) >
 





Revenue growth has been nearly stagnant for the past four quarters and net profit shows slight decline -- while net NPA ratio worsened from 1.80 percent to 2.18 percent.
 
Some ratios of the company, IBHFL, as at the end of 31Dec2022:
 
debt-equity ratio 2.96
net worth Rs 15,984 crore
net profit margin 10.96 percent
gross NPA ratio 4.49 percent
net NPA ratio 2.97 percent
liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) 84 percent
capital adequacy ratio (CRAR) 25.20 percent
 
It may be clarified the the higher the CRAR (over and above the statutory requirement), the greater the scope for future loan growth and superior the capital buffer -- the flip side being the higher the CRAR the lower the profitability ratios because higher capital is locked up without being used for generating revenue and profits.


For some time, the company's website has not been working; so, some details cannot be extracted. I've tried web archive -- only some details are available. Mr Gagan Banga is in control of the company, supervised by other directors, like, SS Mundra and BC Patnaik (MD of LIC of India).

Recently, a reputed global investor, Oaktree Capital, bought loans worth Rs 5,000 crore from IBHFL. This could be regarded as a positive.

Other than the above current developments, not much has changed in the company from my previous notes of Aug2022.

The current market price (26Apr2023) of IBHFL is Rs 105.60, with a market cap of Rs 4,980 crore. At the end of Dec2022, the price reached a peak of Rs 156 before falling by 32 percent.
 
It's hard for long-time investors to make money from such stocks with such legacy management issues. If your stake is small, you can live with the stock for some time. Otherwise, you need to take a harder look at the stock. 
 

12May2023 The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) Limited - Apportionment of Cost of Acquisition of equity shares after demerger of Shipping Corporation of India Land Assets Ltd from SCI Ltd - SCI demerger - corporate action

- cost of acquisistion is dividend into as follows: SCI Ltd 59.68% and SCI Land Assets Ltd 40.32% (this is for income tax purposes)

- ex-date and record date for the demerger was 31Mar2023 
 
- the shares of SCI Land Assets are yet to be listed on stock exchanges 





19Apr2023 BSE - BEML Land Assets Ltd (BLAL) is getting listed today - BLAL  is a spin off from BEML Ltd - 
 
-- corporate - investing - spin off - demerger - corporate action 

-- the ex-date for spin off from BEML Ltd was 08Sep2022 (record date was 09Sep2022) -- it meant if you were holding, for example, one equity share of BEML Ltd with a face value of Rs 10 each on 07Sep2022, you would have received one equity share of BEML Land Assets Ltd (BLAL) with a face value of Rs 10 each -- it took six months and two weeks, after ex-date, to get shares of BLAL listed on stock exchanges --  it meant you were out of funds / liquidity (liquidity risk) for seven months and two weeks on this portion of BLAL shares -- this lack of liquidity is a factor to be considered while participating in corporate actions, like, spin off or demerger -

-- Tweet thread 19Apr2023 for share price adjustment done by @screener_in for corporate actions, like, spin off, demerger and rights issue

Tweet thread 19Apr2023 - If you had stayed invested in BEML Ltd between ex-date of spin off of BEML Land Assets Ltd and now (BEML Land Assets listed today), you'd have lost 17.70 percent (not including Rs 10 dividend from BEML) in just 32 weeks, in an otherwise sideways market (calculation sheet attached below). 
 
-- in the recent spin off of NMDC Steel Ltd, investors made decent money; but BEML Land Assets was not such a case
 
-- corporate - investing - spin off - demerger - corporate action  
 
 
 
31Aug2024 Nifty 50 index monthly returns from Jan1994 to Dec2023 - Capital Mind
 

 

31Dec2023 Nifty 50 index monthly returns from Jan1994 to Dec2023 - Capital Mind
 

 
 
31Jul2023 Nifty 50 index monthly returns from Jan1994 to Jul2023 - Capital Mind
 

 
 
 
30Apr2023 Nifty 50 index monthly returns from Jan1994 to Apr2023 - Capital Mind
 

 
 
31Mar2023 Nifty 50 index monthly returns from Jan1994 to Mar2023 - Capital Mind



 
17Apr2023 Apple Inc  - Apple Card's new Savings account is now available with 4.15 percent APY (annual percentage yield)

-- Starting today, Apple Card users can choose to grow their Daily Cash rewards with a Savings account from Goldman Sachs, which offers a high-yield APY of 4.15 percent — a rate that’s more than 10 times the national average.

-- With no fees, no minimum deposits, and no minimum balance requirements, users can easily set up and manage their Savings account directly from Apple Card in Wallet.
 
Business Insider article 17Apr2023
 
 
17Apr2023 Bloomberg:  Apple India sales near USD 6 billion 
 
-- Apple Inc's production capacity (2021):  China 230 million (98%); India 3 million (1%) and Brazil 1.2 million (1%) >



27Jul2023 S&P 500 index forward P/E ratio, S&P 500 earnings, S&P 500 valuation, US stock market > 



 
 
17Apr2023 S&P 500 index forward P/E ratio, S&P 500 earnings, S&P 500 valuation, US stock market >
 

 
 
15Aug2023 TE - India CPI inflation jumped to 7.44 percent in Jul2023
 
 


21Apr2023 CPI Inflation of Japan is down to 3.2 percent in Mar2023 >



12Jul2023 CPI inflation of US is down to 3% in Jun2023 >
 



16Apr2023 CPI Inflation of major nations in the world > Trading Economics data - consumer prices inflation > Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Euro area, France, Germany, Indonesia, India, Italy, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, the UK and the USA >

















 
16Apr2023 The Money Illusion -  Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy by Scott Sumner - 219 pages book - what is monetary policy - interest rates - exchange rates - Fed policy tools -
 
03Apr2023 RWM WisdomTree Crypto Index exposures as at end-02Apr2023 factsheet- Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Chainlink, Polkadot, Aave, Uniswap, etc. - DeFi - Metaverse - smart contract platform - NFT - Polygon - Ether -  crypto asset profiles -
 
  
 31Mar2023 portfolio - Fundsmith by Terry Smith - his fund's portfolio stocks - stock investing - TickerTracker.io


 
Jan2013 Fundsmith - Return Free Risk by Terry Smith - stock investing - 

-- 12Apr2021 share buybacks: friend or foe by Terry Smith - capital allocation - capex - maintenance capex - 

- in 1977, 95% distributions made by quoted US companies were through dividend; but now a majority of distributions are through share buybacks or share repurchases 

- What has led to this change is in part a change in regulation. In 1982 Congress enacted Rule 10b-18 which provided “safe harbour” to protect companies undertaking buybacks from being sued for manipulation under the terms of the Securities Exchange Act
 
- investors should view share buybacks with scepticism 


 
09Mar2023  Fundsmith - Annual Shareholders' Meeting 2023 - stock investing - video - Terry Smith - 
 
Highlights from the video:

– Terry Smith - Terence Smith (Terry Smith) talks on his fund’s performance and stocks the fund (Fundsmith Equity Fund) owns:

 

-- fund’s assets are GBP 22.5 billion as on 31Dec2022

 

-- the fund underperformed in 2022; its return in 2022 is minus 13.8%

 

-- but the fund outperformed MSCI World Index since its inception in Nov2010

 

-- its CAGR from Nov2010 to Dec2022 is 15.5% versus MSCI World Index’s 11.0%

 

-- some of the stocks the fund owns are:

 

Novo Nordisk

Philip Morris

PepsiCo

ADP or Automatic Data Processing

Mettler-Toledo

Meta Platforms (Facebook)

Microsoft

IDEXX (diagnostic equipment firm)

Amazon

 

-- the companies we bought in 2022:

 

Adobe

Mettler-Toledo

Otis

Apple

 

-- the companies we sold in 2022:

 

Johnson & Johnson

Starbucks

Kone

Intuit

PayPal

 

 

-- our investment strategy has three legs:

 

1) only buy good companies,

 

2) do not overpay, and

 

3) do nothing

 

-- look-through ratios (key indicators for choosing good companies)

 

1) ROCE

2) gross margin

3) operating profit margin

4) cash conversion

5) interest coverage ratio

 

Cash conversion ratio is cash flows divided by net profits. You could use either operating cash flows or free cash flow as the cash flow number here.

 

Higher gross margin indicates the strong pricing power (a defense against inflation) of a company.

 

Higher interest cover indicates that the company is conservatively financed (not resorting to financial engineering).

 

-- our metric for valuation (not overpaying for companies) is free cash flow yield.

 

-- free cash flow yield is free cash flow (FCF) divided by market cap or FCF per share dividend by market price per share

 

-- Fundsmith’s FCF yield is 3.2% versus 3.4% for S&P 500 (ex-financials); the lower the yield means the higher the valuation; here, Fundsmith is slightly overvalued versus S&P 500

 

-- Fundsmith’s portfolio turnover (metric for doing nothing)

 

Its portfolio turnover rate is 7.4% in 2022 (it’s higher than its own average turnover rate over the years; but much lower than the industry average of 60% portfolio turnover).

 

The definition of portfolio turnover is as per FCA (or Financial Conduct Authority of the UK). It is equal to total share purchases plus sales less total creations and liquidations divided by the average net asset value of the fund.

 

The fund’s total cost of investment (TCI) is just 1.05% in 2022. TCI includes brokerage commissions and transaction taxes incurred.

 

-- (in response to a question) one company which we would like to own but actually don’t is Adyen – we don’t own it because it is too expensive (its P/E ratio is 60)

 

-- Adyen is a Dutch company – fintech – payment processor

 

-- Adyen is laser-focused

 

-- (in response to a question) the cheapest company in our PF is Meta Platforms (aka Facebook) – its TTM P/E is just 15 and its forward P/E is 12.7 – if Meta stops spending billions of dollars on metaverse, the stock would go through the roof

 

-- in the past, technology firms were non-cyclical; but now they seem to be cyclical in nature – but overall, they will do well in future


 
images from the above video  >
 
look-through ratios
do nothing
meta platforms
liquidity constraints








07Feb2023 Livemint - New tax on distribution income, a budget damper for Reits, InvITs - by Satya Sontanam
 

 
 
12Apr2023 Bain & Company -  Engineering and R&D Report 2023 - full report PDF - ER&D - 

-- A key factor fueling higher ER&D spending is digital engineering, the discipline of developing new, connected, and digitally enabled products and services using technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and cloud computing. Examples of digitally engineered products include autonomous vehicles and production plants wired for Industry 4.0.  
 
-- The use of ER&D service providers varies by industry. Our research shows the sectors most inclined to increase outsourcing over the next three years are advanced manufacturing and services, automotive and mobility, medical devices, energy and natural resources, and aerospace and defense.

-- BMW, for instance, outsourced its next-generation charging electronics program to KPIT, a service provider specializing in vehicle electrification engineering and software.
 
10Mar2024 NSE -  NSE Indices Ltd - factsheet of Nifty REITs & InvITs Index for Feb2023 - PDF of the index - 
 
-- research paper 01Feb2024
 
-- as on 10Feb2024, there are only seven REITs and InvITs in the index (small market of REITs and InvITs in India) - namely, Embassy REIT, Nexus Select Trust, Powergrid InvIT, Mindspace REIT, India Grid Trust, Brookfield REIT and IRB InvIT
 
 
 
13Apr2023 NSE -  NSE Indices Ltd, a subsidiary of National Stock Exchange (NSE), has launched India’s first ever index on REITs and InvITs, named, Nifty REITs & InvITs Index - PDF of the index - The index has a base date of 01Jul2019, with a base value of 1,000 -

-- methodology document for NSE Indices (Apr2023)

-- as on 31Mar2023, there are only six REITs and InvITs in the index (small market of REITs and InvITs in India) - namely, Embassy REIT, Powergrid InvIT, Mindspace REIT, India Grid Trust, Brookfield REIT and IRB InvIT


 
14Apr2023: On 13Mar2023, Tube Investments of India (Murugappa group) announced its foray into CDMO space with Rs 285 crore investment -- on 22Mar2023, another Murugappa group company Coromandel International Ltd announced its foray into CDMO space with Rs 1,000 crore investment --

-- on 04Apr2023, Nirma group bought a Bangalore-based CDMO player, Stericon Pharma Pvt Ltd
 
02Apr2023 - BSE 500 Index as at end-31Mar2023 > sector-wise market cap >




02Apr2023 - BSE Allcap Index as at end-31Mar2023 > sector-wise market cap and market cap >
 

 
30Sep2025 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Sep2025  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices
 













 
 
30Jun2025 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Jun2025  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices
 













 
 
 
31Mar2025 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Mar2025 (28th March is last trading day of Mar2025)  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices
 













 

28Feb2025 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 28Feb2025  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices
 
 














 
31Dec2024 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Dec2024  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices
 














 
 
31Oct2024 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Oct2024  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices 
 















30Sep2024 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Sep2024 (30th is the last trading day of Sep2024)  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices 
 














30Jun2024 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Jun2024 (28th is the last trading day of Jun2024)  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices 










 







30Apr2024 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Apr2024  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices 
 




 
 




31Mar2024 Nifty Indices -  (28th March is last trading day of Mar2024) screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Mar2024  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices
 
 





 








29Feb2024 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 29Feb2024  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices 















 
 
31Dec2023 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Dec2023  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto, Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare indices 















 
30Sep2023 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Sep2023  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG indices -
 




 



 


 
31Jul2023 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Jul2023  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG indices -
 







 



 
30Jun2023 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Jun2023  -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG indices -
 



 



 



30Apr2023 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 30Apr2023 (last trading was 28Apr2023) -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG indices -
 









 
31Mar2023 Nifty Indices -  screenshots / images of NSE indices - data as at the end of 31Mar2023 -  sector and top 10 stock weights, returns, risk, P/E and P/B  - NSE indexogram - monthly factsheets -Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 500, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250, Nifty Total Market, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG indices -
 









 
 
13Mar2023 BQ Prime - Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation - CDMO - CDMOs, like, Divi's Labs, Suven Pharma, Gland Pharma, Neuland Labs, Syngene International, Hikal Ltd and Piramal Pharma - Indian Pharma - 
 



Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation

Read more at: https://www.bqprime.com/business/contract-drugmakers-grapple-with-reality-check-after-covid-exuberance
Copyright © BQ Prime
Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisation

Read more at: https://www.bqprime.com/business/contract-drugmakers-grapple-with-reality-check-after-covid-exuberance
Copyright © BQ Prime
 
Tweet 13Mar2023 - Ekansh Mittal of Katalyst Wealth - break-up of Indian steel pipes sector
 

 
 
30Sep2019 JP Morgan Guide to Markets - asset class returns - asset class matrix - yearly returns from 2004 to 30Sep2019 - asset classes - 



 
NSE 500 index - Sector weights as on 31st of December every year from 2010 to 2022 (for 13 years) > sectors, like, financials, info tech, materials, consumer discretionary and consumer staples > InCred Asset Management >




25May2023 Tweet - Context: when NVIDIA Corp stock jumped 25% on a single day after quarterly results announcement

- meme - fun - humour - TOMO - Terror of missing out - new phrase coined - 





23Mar2023 Tradingview - Top US stocks by market cap end-23Mar2023 - today, Nvidia Corporation stock is the fifth biggest by market cap in S&P 500 index, dethroning Berkshire Hathaway Inc which is now in fifth place 











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