Wednesday, 18 February 2026

Understanding India’s GDP – A Simple Guide to the Expenditure Approach 18Feb2026

Understanding India’s GDP – A Simple Guide to the Expenditure Approach 18Feb2026

 

 
 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.) 

 

    Mapping: Expenditure Approach of India GDP Measurement
 

India calculates its national income (GDP or gross domestic product) using global standards, but the terminology often differs from what textbooks teach. 

While students learn the formula Y = C + I + G + (X – M), India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) presents the same idea with more detailed categories. 

In the expenditure approach, MoSPI calculates GDP using the formula:

GDP = PFCE + GFCE + GFCF + CIS + Valuables + Export - Import

For details, check the above table, mapping standard textbook terms to international terms and MoSPI terminology. 

Understanding this mapping makes GDP data much easier to interpret.

Consumption Is the Main Engine:

In textbooks, “C” usually refers to private consumption. In India’s official data, consumption includes both Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE). 

Together, they form the largest share, more than 70 per cent, of Indian GDP. 

With household spending far exceeding government consumption, the data clearly show that India is primarily a consumption-driven economy.

Investment Means Capital Creation:

Investment is not just about factories and machines. MoSPI divides it into Gross Fixed Capital Formation (infrastructure, machinery, buildings), Changes in Stocks (inventory), and Valuables (such as gold and art). 

Fixed capital formation forms the bulk of investment, indicating ongoing capacity creation in the economy. 

Inventory and valuables are smaller but still included to reflect total capital accumulation.

Trade Adds and Subtracts:

Exports contribute positively to GDP because they represent domestic production sold abroad. Imports, however, are subtracted since they satisfy domestic demand without generating domestic output. 

Traditionally, India's imports exceed exports, meaning net exports reduce overall GDP. This does not signal weakness by itself; it simply reflects trade balance dynamics.

What Are Discrepancies?

The “discrepancies” item is a statistical adjustment. It ensures that GDP calculated from the expenditure side matches GDP calculated from the production side. Differences arise due to data sources and timing, and the adjustment aligns the two estimates.

India GDP: Expenditure Approach and Its Components:

 

The immediately above chart shows India’s nominal GDP for FY 2025–26 at Rs 357 lakh crore, measured using the expenditure approach. 

The largest component is private consumption, followed by investment in fixed capital, while government consumption forms a smaller but steady share. 

The chart also helps readers by mapping familiar textbook terms like consumption, investment, government spending and net exports to the official terminology used by MoSPI. 

It shows that “consumption” corresponds to PFCE and GFCE, “investment” to GFCF, changes in stocks and valuables, and net exports to exports minus imports. 

This mapping clarifies how the simple classroom formula translates into India’s detailed national accounts framework.

 
The Bigger Picture:

India’s GDP composition shows a consumption-led economy supported by strong investment, with trade currently acting as a modest drag.

Understanding how textbook terms translate into official data helps make economic discussions clearer and more meaningful for readers.
 

(the blog is not yet completed, please bear with me -- I shall complete the same in the next two hours or so)

- - -



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References and additional data:

MoSPI press release 07Jan2026 - First Advance Estimates for FY 2025-26

SNA - The United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) is the internationally accepted framework for measuring GDP in a consistent and comparable way across countries. It provides standardised definitions, classifications and accounting rules that national statistical agencies follow. 

 

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Tuesday, 17 February 2026

India’s REIT Market: Institutional Scale, Retail Opportunity 17Feb2026

India’s REIT Market: Institutional Scale, Retail Opportunity: A Big-Picture Look at India’s Five Listed REITs 17Feb2026

 

 
 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

 


 

While the concept of investing in commercial real estate through the stock market may sound promising, India’s listed REIT sector is still in its early stages. As of now, there are only five REITs publicly traded.


Although this represents a significant step toward owning a piece of large-scale commercial property to public investors, it remains a small slice compared to the overall Indian stock market and the vast physical real estate owned by households. 
 
Let’s take a closer look at what these five REITs represent and how they fit into the broader investment landscape.

A REIT, or Real Estate Investment Trust, is a company that owns and manages income-generating real estate and lets investors buy REIT units on stock exchanges to earn a share of the rental income and potential capital appreciation.

 

(article continues below) 

-------------------

Read more on REITs:

Nexus Select Trust (Retail REIT) and Office REITs 21May2023  

Real Estate Stocks and REITs

DLF versus Embassy Office Parks REIT

What are REITs?

-------------------

 

1. REITs in India: Big Picture View:



 

India’s listed REIT market is still in its early stages, with just five players shaping the space. While small in number, these REITs represent large, professionally managed commercial properties leased primarily to corporate tenants. 

For retail investors, this means REITs offer a way to participate in commercial real estate without buying or managing property directly, but on a relatively small scale compared to India’s overall stock market and the vast household investment already tied up in residential real estate. 

The market is growing, structured and stable, but listed REITs currently function best as a satellite allocation rather than a core holding.

The above chart presents the overall scale of India’s listed REIT universe, including market capitalisation, gross asset value (GAV), total leasable area (in msf or million square feet) and unitholder count. 


2. Making Sense of REIT Numbers for Investors

Chart showing Five Listed REITs in India: Valuation Matrix >

 Please click on the chart to view better >


Data sources: Various investor presentations and quarterly result updates by the REITs. 
 
Unlike traditional stocks, REITs are evaluated using metrics that reflect the underlying real estate rather than just price or earnings. 
 
Key metrics include market capitalisation, gross asset value (GAV), total leasable area, occupancy rates, lease tenure (WALE or weighted average lease expiry), distribution yield, net asset value (NAV) and funds from operations (FFO). 

These help investors understand the size, income potential, stability and asset backing of each REIT.

In the Indian context, additional factors are also important. Sponsor quality and ownership stake indicate governance and long-term credibility. Concentration of tenants shows potential risk exposure, while geographic spread reveals where rental income is coming from. 

Debt or leverage levels help assess financial stability. Occupancy by segment, whether office or retail, provides insight into which businesses are driving revenue.

The above chart presents India’s five listed REITs across some of these metrics. Retail investors can use it to understand how the REITs compare in size and structure, without needing to evaluate individual properties or financial statements.

It’s important to remember that each REIT is unique, with different portfolios, lease structures, tenant mixes and market exposures. 
 
There is no single metric or valuation approach that fits all REITs, and this matrix should be used as a guide for relative positioning rather than a definitive investment recommendation. 

Individual REIT evaluation is outside the scope of this article.

In short, the valuation matrix gives readers a clear view of India’s listed REIT market as a small but growing segment offering professionally managed, income-generating commercial real estate.

Ten key REIT metrics investors should keep in mind:

Market Capitalisation – The total value of all REIT units traded on the stock exchange, giving a sense of the REIT’s size and liquidity.

Gross Asset Value (GAV) – The combined value of all properties owned by the REIT, showing the scale of its underlying real estate.

Leasable Area – The total area of the REIT’s properties that can be rented out, usually measured in million square feet.

Occupancy Rate – The percentage of leasable space that is currently rented, indicating how much of the REIT’s assets are generating income.

Occupancy by Segment – Occupancy broken down by property type, such as office or retail, showing which segments are driving revenue.

Lease Tenure / WALE (Weighted Average Lease Expiry) – The average remaining duration of leases, weighted by rental income, indicating stability and visibility of future cash flows.

Distribution Yield – The income paid to investors as a percentage of the REIT’s market price, similar to a dividend yield.

Net Asset Value (NAV) – The value of a REIT’s assets minus liabilities, representing the book value per unit.

Funds from Operations (FFO) – Cash generated from the REIT’s core property operations, often used to fund distributions.

Sponsor Quality / Ownership Stake – The reputation and holding of the REIT’s sponsor, which reflects governance quality and alignment of interests.

Key observations from the above Valuation Matrix:

The five listed REIT players are: 

Embassy Office Parks REIT, 
Mindspace Business Parks REIT, 
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust, 
Nexus Select Trust and 
Knowledge Realty Trust. 

Four of these are office-focused REITs, reflecting the depth and institutionalisation of India’s Grade A office market across cities like Bengaluru, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Pune. 

The fifth, Nexus Select Trust, is the only retail-focused REIT in the listed space, giving investors exposure to shopping malls. 

Embassy Office Parks REIT was the first to list in Apr2019. And the youngest one is Knowledge Realty Trust.

Knowledge Realty Trust is the largest by market cap at about 55,750 crore.

All REITs are trading above their IPO price. Since listing, Mindspace (16.1 per cent CAGR) and Nexus (22.3 per cent CAGR) have delivered the strongest compounded returns among the seasoned vehicles.  

Knowledge Realty Trust is too recent for a meaningful CAGR comparison.

On a current market price (CMP) to net asset value (NAV) basis, most REITs are trading close to their net asset value, roughly in the 1.0 to 1.07 range, suggesting the market is valuing them near underlying asset value.

Two years ago, Indian REITs traded below NAV due to higher interest rates, post-WFH uncertainty and valuation assumptions.

With rates stabilising, cash flows proving resilient and investor confidence improving, discounts narrowed.

Today, limited supply and strong income demand have pushed most REITs to trade at a premium to NAV.

The expansion of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) by multinational firms in India has driven steady leasing of Grade A office space, especially in cities like Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Pune -- which in turn has stimulated investor interest in REITs. 

Price-earnings ratios vary widely, from around 30 times (Knowledge Realty Trust) to over 100 times (Embassy), reflecting differences in accounting earnings and capital structures rather than just operating strength.

Embassy and Knowledge Realty Trust have the largest gross asset values, both around 64,000 crore.

In terms of leasable area, Embassy leads with 51.6 million square feet.

Office REITs show strong occupancy levels between 90 and 93 per cent, while Nexus Select Trust has the highest occupancy at 97 percent in retail malls.

WALE, or weighted average lease expiry, is highest for Embassy at 8.4 years, indicating longer lease visibility. And Nexus at 4.7 years, reflecting the typically shorter lease tenures in retail.

Corporate tenants, particularly global capability centres (GCCs), are driving demand for office REITs, supporting predictable rental income.

Overall picture:

The office REITs are broadly similar in structure: large commercial portfolios, high occupancy, long lease tenures and trading close to NAV. 

The retail REIT, Nexus Select Trust, stands out for higher occupancy and stronger recent return performance, but with shorter lease tenures and smaller asset size.



3. Shortcomings of the Indian REIT Space

The listed REIT market in India is still very small, with only five REITs and a combined market cap of around Rs 1.90 lakh crore, making it a tiny fraction of the overall equity market. 

Retail investors already hold a large portion of their wealth in physical real estate, mostly residential, while REITs focus on institutional-grade office and retail assets leased to corporate tenants. 

This means listed REITs offer limited exposure for individual investors and are largely tied to business demand rather than housing cycles. 

Despite high asset quality, their scale is too small to meaningfully influence retail portfolios. The market remains in an early stage, and while growth potential exists, REITs currently function best as a small portfolio allocation.

 

4. How to Think About REITs in a Portfolio

Listed REITs in India are best considered as a satellite allocation rather than a core holding. They offer exposure to professionally managed commercial real estate with rental income and potential capital appreciation. 

REITs have a hybrid nature, combining steady rental distributions with equity-like market price movements. As per SEBI’s new classification, effective 01Jan2026, REITs are being treated as equity instruments for mutual fund purposes, though prior to 2026 they were classified as hybrid. 

Investors can use metrics like occupancy, lease tenure, distribution yield and scale to gauge stability and income potential, but each REIT is unique. 

Investing in REITs carries risks such as market price volatility, changes in interest rates and tenant or lease-related uncertainties. Concentration in a few corporate tenants or cities can also affect income stability. 

Retail investors should weigh these factors before allocating capital.

Overall, REITs provide income and growth potential, but their small market size and corporate focus mean they complement rather than replace traditional equity or fixed-income investments. 

 

5. Gist 
 

India’s listed REIT market remains small but structurally looks strong, offering access to high-quality commercial real estate. Each REIT has unique features and performance depends on property type, lease structure and micro-market dynamics.

For retail investors, REITs are best considered a complementary or non-core allocation, providing income and diversification without replacing traditional equities. 

As the market matures, REITs could gradually bridge household real estate exposure with sophisticated capital markets.

Investors should do their own due diligence before committing any investments. This is just for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. 

 

(Even though the blog was published on 17Feb2026, a bonus section contrasting REITs, flex space and developers was added on 18Feb2026 below -- thank you for your patience).

 

 - - -



-------------------

P.S.: Bonus Section (added on 18Feb2026):

Business Model Snapshot: REITs vs Flexible Workspace Solutions vs Real Estate Developers:

Big Structural Difference >

REITs = yield + stability

Flex operators = growth + operating risk

Developers = Realty cycle + leverage + land bank play 

 

REITs own completed income-producing assets and generate stable, bond-like cash flows driven by long-term leases and cap rates.

Flexible workspace firms operate leased offices, earning higher-growth but more volatile, occupancy- and margin-sensitive revenues.

Developers acquire land and build to sell, making them the most cyclical, leverage-sensitive and dependent on real estate demand cycles. 

 


-------------------

References and additional data:

Image courtesy: Embassy REIT (Embassy Quadron building in Pune)

Indian REITs Association, CAMS and CareEdge 

Tweet thread on REITs 

RBI proposes allowing banks to lend against REITs 09Feb2026 

Nifty REITs & InvITs Index

10Mar2024 NSE -  NSE Indices Ltd - factsheet of Nifty REITs & InvITs Index for Feb2023 - PDF of the index - 
 
-- research paper 01Feb2024 
 

Screener.in valuation matrix of REITs as at end-17Feb2026 >

 


 

------------------------ 

Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise 
 
Weblinks and Investing
 
India Fixed Income Data Bank
 
Indian Economy Data Bank 

India Forex Data Bank 
 
Who is Eating my Gold ETF Return? (gold data / gold ETF data)
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets 28Feb2025  
 
Corporate Groups and Listed Companies 29Dec2024
 
Corporate Governance Concerns - Indian Companies 13Dec2024
 
Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry 16Feb2024  
 
various uploads on Scribd by VRK100  
 
 
 
Is GST Growth Now Tracking Nominal GDP?  15Feb2026
 
Why Food Matters Less in India’s New CPI and What It Means for RBI  30Jan2026
 
Top 10 Equity Indices Powering Passive Investing in India: Big-Picture View  29Jan2026
 
Canada's Mark Carney at Davos: Middle Powers Must Step Up 28Jan2026
 
Nifty IT Underperformance Explained – Nasdaq Outshines Indian IT in 2025  26Jan2026
 
Inside the BSE 500 and S&P 500: Top Stocks, Top Sectors, Big Risks 31Dec2025  
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets Dec2025 
 
RBI's New Comfort with Foreign Capital Spurs FDI Turnaround in India's Financial Sector 17Jan2026 
 
The Next Generation of Market Leaders: A Fresh Look at Nifty Next 50's Corporate Landscape 15Jan2026
 
Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Dec2025 
 
NSE Emerging Indices Fundamentals Comparison 31Dec2025 (NSE Indices / Nifty Indices) 
  
NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns 2006 to 2025  07Jan2026  
 
-------------------
 
Disclosure:  I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
 
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

------------------------ 

CFA 10 Year Milestone Professional Learning Program 2025 Certificate of Achievement 



 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA New Badge 

CFA Badge  

 

Viewing Options for this blog in different formats:

Sidebar and so on

 

He blogs at:

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https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

X (Twitter) @vrk100 

Sunday, 15 February 2026

Is GST Growth Now Tracking Nominal GDP? 15Feb2026

Is GST Growth Now Tracking Nominal GDP? 15Feb2026

 

 
 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

 

 

Recent data show that both net GST growth and nominal GDP growth in India have moderated — even as real GDP growth remains relatively high, according to official government figures.

Since nominal GDP equals real growth plus inflation, the combination of high real growth and slower nominal expansion implies a relatively subdued GDP deflator.

In this context, it is worth examining whether GST data offer a useful cross-check on broader economic growth dynamics.

 

(article continues below)

---------------

Related blogs:

Indian Economy Data Bank 

The Great GST Trick: Why 5% May Be Costing You More Than You Think 07Sep2025

What is GDP? 

GST: First Discussion Paper 

---------------

 

1. What GST Growth Tells Us About India’s Economy

India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST), introduced in Jul2017, has become a key barometer of economic activity. Yet assessing its growth relative to the broader economy is not as straightforward as headline numbers suggest. 

While official documents such as the Economic Survey 2025–26 compare gross GST collections with nominal GDP growth, a closer examination indicates that net GST may be a more appropriate benchmark — and that comparisons using earlier, more volatile years can distort the picture.

 

2. Why Earlier Years Distort the Comparison 

As shown in the chart below, net GST and gross GST growth rates in FY 2021-22 and 2022-23 jumped to exceptionally high levels — 22-30 per cent — far exceeding nominal GDP growth rates of 14-19 per cent during the same period. 

These years were outliers, driven by the post-pandemic rebound, base effects, higher GST tax slabs (like 28% rate), elevated inflation and possible improvements in compliance. 

Comparing these exceptional growth rates with nominal GDP can give a misleading impression of long-term trends.

Clear moderation in the past three years

By contrast, the data from FY 2023–24 onwards show a clear moderation. Net GST and gross GST growth eased to 13.4 per cent in 2023–24, fell further to 8.6 per cent in 2024–25 and stood at merely 6.8 per cent in the first ten months of 2025–26. 

Nominal GDP growth over the same period has also slowed, making these recent years a more reliable basis for comparison. 

Focusing on this post-2023 phase provides a more accurate view of how GST is tracking the economy under normalised conditions. 

It may be noted for full year of 2025-26, the nominal GDP growth is 8.0 per cent as per latest GDP figures put out by the government.  

Chart showing India's Gross and Net GST Vs Nominal GDP Growth Rate > 

 

data sources: 

GST statistics yearly FY wise

GST monthly collections archives

GST portal news and updates 

  

3. Gross vs Net GST: Why the Distinction Matters

GST is compared with nominal GDP at current prices because both are measured in monetary terms without adjusting for inflation. Since GST is levied on transaction values at prevailing market prices, it naturally moves with nominal (current price) economic activity rather than real (inflation-adjusted) GDP.

A key question is whether GST growth should be compared with nominal GDP using gross or net GST figures. Gross GST shows total collections before refunds, while net GST reflects what the government actually retains after refunds, including those for exports and special adjustments.

Refunds have been in the range of 10.8 per cent to 13.4 per cent of gross collections over the past six years, meaning a significant portion of reported gross GST never stays with the government. 

Timing effects can further inflate gross GST growth, giving a misleading impression of revenue performance.

Post-2024 data show that net GST growth is consistently lower than gross GST. Among all measures, net GST provides the clearest view of how tax collections are tracking the economy. 

The slowdown in net GST suggests that GST tax collections growth is lagging behind overall economic expansion, highlighting the limitations of headline gross GST figures, without considering refunds.

In this background, the Economic Survey 2025–26’s comparison of gross GST growth with nominal GDP growth needs to be viewed with caution. By relying on gross collections rather than net figures, the Survey presents an alignment that may appear stronger than it actually is. 

Once refunds — which account for 10–13 per cent of gross GST — are taken into account, the picture becomes more nuanced and net GST provides a more accurate basis for assessing how tax revenues are moving relative to the broader economy. 

(Check update 07Jul2025 with chart 59 of Indian Economy data bank for data on nominal GDP)

 

4. Comparing GST growth to Nominal GDP Fair? 

Comparing GST growth to Nominal GDP is often an "apples-to-oranges" exercise due to these structural limitations:

Exclusion of Major Sectors: GDP includes petroleum, electricity and alcohol, while GST excludes them, creating a massive base mismatch.

Agriculture's Weight: Farming contributes significantly to India's GDP but is largely exempt from GST, decoupling the two metrics.

The Informal Economy: GDP uses proxies to estimate informal activity, whereas GST only captures the formal economy.

Import Distortion: Gross GST includes IGST on imports; rising imports can inflate tax figures even if domestic GDP (production) is slowing.

Export Zero-Rating
: High export growth boosts GDP but triggers GST refunds, causing Net GST growth to lag behind economic output.

Several goods and services remain exempt or taxed at zero rates.

GST is sensitive to final retail prices, while Nominal GDP is influenced by a broader "GDP Deflator" (WPI and CPI mix).

Input Tax Credit (ITC): Increased efficiency in businesses claiming ITC reduces net tax collections without reflecting a drop in actual GDP.

Periodic government cuts or rate revisions to GST rates lower tax growth even if the volume of goods sold (GDP) rises.

Timing Mismatches: GST is recorded on a cash basis (when paid), while GDP is calculated on an accrual basis (when value is created), leading to quarterly lags. 

GDP measures total economic activity as C + I + G + (X − M) -- that is, consumption, investment, government spending and net exports (expenditure method of the GDP 
computation).

GST only captures the parts of the economy where taxes are actually collected: consumption and much of investment. 

It does not cover government spending on services like defense or administration, and exports are zero-rated*.

[* Exports are described as “zero-rated” under GST because goods and services sold abroad are taxed at a rate of zero per cent. This means exporters do not charge GST on their sales to foreign buyers. At the same time, they can claim refunds for the GST they paid on inputs (raw materials, services, logistics and others) used to produce those exports.

The idea is to ensure that Indian exports are not burdened with domestic taxes, keeping them competitive in foreign markets. As a result, exports add to GDP, but they do not generate net GST revenue for the government.
]

GST reflects only the taxable segment of the economy. Nominal GDP, by contrast, encompasses the entire economic universe. Perfect alignment between the two should not be expected.

In short: GST tracks only a slice of the economy, not the entire GDP.

Despite these structural differences, the comparison remains useful when interpreted carefully. GST is a high-frequency, transaction-based indicator (HFI) measured at current prices, making it a practical cross-check for nominal GDP trends. 

The key is to compare the right measure — net GST — and to recognise what GST captures and what it leaves out. 



5. Reading the Recent Trend

Focusing on the normalisation phase since 2023–24, the chart above shows that GST growth is no longer significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth. 

Both net GST and nominal GDP growth have moderated year by year: net GST growth fell from 13.4 per cent in 2023–24 to 6.8 per cent in the first ten months of 2025–26, while nominal GDP growth also slowed over the same period.

As per the advanced estimates released on 07Jan2026, nominal GDP growth for the full year 2025–26 is projected at 8.0 per cent. While this covers the entire fiscal year, the GST data we have are only for the first ten months. 

Although the comparison is not perfect, looking at 10-month gross and net GST growth alongside this nominal GDP estimate provides a useful indication of how GST collections are tracking the economy.

If real GDP growth remains comparatively high (as shown by official numbers) while nominal GDP growth slows, the implied GDP deflator is low. 

In this setting, GST — which is levied on transaction values at current prices — is naturally aligned with nominal GDP rather than real GDP. 

The data therefore suggest that GST can provide a meaningful cross-check on economic momentum, particularly for the formal, taxable economy.
 

6. Conclusion

Recent data show that net GST growth has moderated since 2023, broadly tracking nominal GDP growth, while the extraordinary post-COVID-19-pandemic surge has faded. 

Comparisons are most meaningful when using net GST rather than gross GST, and when focusing on the post-2023 normalisation period rather than the volatile rebound years of 2021-22 and 2022-23.

Focusing on net GST is the more analytically sound approach. Gross GST collections can function as “vanity metrics” because they include refunds — which account for roughly 11–13 per cent of gross GST — and therefore overstate the revenue actually retained by the government.

The slowdown in net GST growth suggests that GST tax collections are not keeping pace with overall economic expansion, highlighting the limitations of headline GST figures. 

Looking ahead, the so-called "GST 2.0" rationalisation of rates from Sep2025 may influence collections further, meaning future GST growth will depend on both underlying economic activity and ongoing policy adjustments.

 

(Thanks for your patience. Though the blog was published yesterday, I made certain tweaks to it on 16Feb2026 to make it better).

 

 - - -


 -------------------

References and additional data:

Economic Survey 2025-26 PDF - presented on 30Jan2026

NIPFP Research Paper - Revenue Performance Assessment of Indian GST 

8 Years of GST Report 

 

Economic Survey 2025-26 (presented on 30Jan2026) claims of alignment of Gross GST collections growth with nominal GDP growth (claims of correlation of 0.92) > charts showing the same >

 



 

------------------------ 

Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise 
 
Weblinks and Investing
 
India Fixed Income Data Bank
 
Indian Economy Data Bank 

India Forex Data Bank 
 
Who is Eating my Gold ETF Return? (gold data / gold ETF data)
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets 28Feb2025  
 
Corporate Groups and Listed Companies 29Dec2024
 
Corporate Governance Concerns - Indian Companies 13Dec2024
 
Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry 16Feb2024  
 
various uploads on Scribd by VRK100  
 
 
Why Food Matters Less in India’s New CPI and What It Means for RBI  30Jan2026
 
Top 10 Equity Indices Powering Passive Investing in India: Big-Picture View  29Jan2026
 
Canada's Mark Carney at Davos: Middle Powers Must Step Up 28Jan2026
 
Nifty IT Underperformance Explained – Nasdaq Outshines Indian IT in 2025  26Jan2026
 
Inside the BSE 500 and S&P 500: Top Stocks, Top Sectors, Big Risks 31Dec2025  
 
JP Morgan Guide to Markets Dec2025 
 
RBI's New Comfort with Foreign Capital Spurs FDI Turnaround in India's Financial Sector 17Jan2026 
 
The Next Generation of Market Leaders: A Fresh Look at Nifty Next 50's Corporate Landscape 15Jan2026
 
Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Dec2025 
 
NSE Emerging Indices Fundamentals Comparison 31Dec2025 (NSE Indices / Nifty Indices) 
  
NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns 2006 to 2025  07Jan2026  
 
FPIs Said Goodbye, Retail Kept Mum, DIIs Stayed Strong: India’s 2025 Market Story 02Jan2026 
 
BSE 500 versus Nifty 500: Same Market, Different Indices 02Jan2026 
 
Central Banks Fuel Gold Speculation: Risking Pain for Ordinary People 23Dec2025
 
-------------------
 
Disclosure:  I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
 
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

------------------------ 

CFA 10 Year Milestone Professional Learning Program 2025 Certificate of Achievement 



 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA New Badge 

CFA Badge  

 

Viewing Options for this blog in different formats:

Sidebar and so on

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

X (Twitter) @vrk100