Indian Economy Data Bank
(This is for information and educational purposes only. This should not be
construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA
Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any
investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks
/ investments discussed if any.)
This
is a data bank related to Indian economy (other than forex topics). The topics covered here are: India GDP, inflation dynamics, consumer price index (CPI inflation), wholesale price index (WPI inflation), monetary policy, interest rates, fiscal deficit, government debt and a host of other topics.
For India Forex Data Bank with data on foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange intervention, foreign
investment flows to India and other topics., you can check here.
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Related blogs on India Data:
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The
data points here contain flow data in a year, stock data at the end of
the year and yearly changes / growth rates.
Sources of information for the data bank are given at the end of the blog.
This is a typical list of data points:
CPI Consumer Price Inflation
GDP Gross Domestic Product or national income
GVA Gross Value Added
MPC RBI's Monetary Policy Committee
MPF Monetary Policy Framework
RBI Reserve Bank of India
WPI Wholesale Price Inflation
Collating
data from various sources is a challenge as the data points are
released on different dates at specific time intervals.
The
author has over the years written various blogs on India GDP growth, per capita income, small savings schemes, crude oil imports, financialisation, challenges faced by economy, government debt and others.
The articles on these subjects can be found here: Blog of Blogs Theme-wise under the topic Indian Economy.
The blog will be updated periodically with new data exhibits and charts. Newer updates will be at the top. This will enable readers to access all the related data at one place.
Brief
notes and relevant blog weblinks, if any, will be added along with the
data. You can click on the data exhibits for a better view.
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Update 24Jun2024: Chart 4:
There is a wide gap between GDP (gross domestic product) and GVA (gross value added) numbers; the gap could be explained by higher taxes (yes, PM Modi government has been extracting more flesh from you and me) and lower subsidies (yes, they have cut subsidies affecting millions of poor people).
GDP / GVA numbers are always revised three of four times, because these are just estimates. Indian data command poor credibility.
Real GDP is derived from nominal GDP after adjusting for GDP deflator, which is derived from CPI (consumer price inflation) and WPI (wholesale price inflation).
If you could massage GDP deflator, real GDP looks high.
Economists have questioned the revised GDP methodology and the wide gap between private consumption and GDP prints.
GDP / GVA numbers are always revised three of four times, because these are just estimates. Indian data command poor credibility.
Real GDP is derived from nominal GDP after adjusting for GDP deflator, which is derived from CPI (consumer price inflation) and WPI (wholesale price inflation).
If you could massage GDP deflator, real GDP looks high.
Economists have questioned the revised GDP methodology and the wide gap between private consumption and GDP prints.
India real GDP growth rates (base year 2011-12) from 1998-99 to 2023-24 >
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Update 13Jun2024: Charts 1 to 3:
It's always better to look at the data with fresh eyes. The mainstream media and others focus too much on the latest monthly data ignoring the cumulative data often.
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year numbers.
The data shown in the chart are for the past 13 months -- cumulative data for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also included in the chart.
For example, as at the end of May2024, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 62, 32.1 and 17 per cent respectively.
When people have suffered cumulative inflation of 32.1 and 17 per cent for the past three and five years respectively, how can media report (while reporting the year-on-year inflation) saying "CPI inflation has eased to 4.7 per cent?"
This is downright mischievous and disingenuous on the part of the media to ignore the pain suffered by common people owing to steep price rise, in the past three to five years.
To give another example: As at the end of Dec2023, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 62.2, 32.5 and 18.1 per cent respectively.
Cumulative 10-year inflation has been in the range of 60 to 68 per cent for the past one year, cumulative 5-year inflation has been in the range of 31 to 33 per cent and cumulative 3-year inflation has been in the range of 17 to 20 per cent.
In the past one year, Jul2023, Aug2023 and Dec2023 are the months with highest inflation rate with year-on-year inflation of 7.4, 6.8 and 5.7 per cent respectively.
The media are in the habit of misreporting. To say inflation has 'eased' is hoodwinking the vulnerable sections of soceity.
One needs to see cumulative inflation. As it is, all governments manipulate data, including that of price rise.
CPI basket in India hasn't been changed for several years; by not changing the basket, government has been cheating the public to an extent of thousands of crores of rupees.
As you know, consumers' real CPI basket has changed drastically since the COVID-19 Pandemic. The underprivileged in India have been reeling under steep price rise since Oct.2019; much before the COVID-19 outbreak.
All the changes in dearness allowance (DA) of employees in India are linked to 'official' inflation numbers released by government. Cost inflation index (CII) used for capital gains taxes' calculation (released by Income Tax Dept) is related to 'official' CPI / WPI print and so is GDP.
By manipulating 'official' CPI / WPI data, it is easy for the governments to save themselves a lot of money and in the process Indian citizens are defrauded of thousands of crores of rupees.
One needs to see cumulative inflation. As it is, all governments manipulate data, including that of price rise.
CPI basket in India hasn't been changed for several years; by not changing the basket, government has been cheating the public to an extent of thousands of crores of rupees.
As you know, consumers' real CPI basket has changed drastically since the COVID-19 Pandemic. The underprivileged in India have been reeling under steep price rise since Oct.2019; much before the COVID-19 outbreak.
All the changes in dearness allowance (DA) of employees in India are linked to 'official' inflation numbers released by government. Cost inflation index (CII) used for capital gains taxes' calculation (released by Income Tax Dept) is related to 'official' CPI / WPI print and so is GDP.
By manipulating 'official' CPI / WPI data, it is easy for the governments to save themselves a lot of money and in the process Indian citizens are defrauded of thousands of crores of rupees.
However, like Indira Gandhi, they would deceitfully say, "this is a global phenomenon."
Raw monthly data: Consumer Price Index or CPI combined (base: CPI 2012 = 100) from 2014 to 2024 is as follows >
India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
The longer the data, the better. Here, CPI inflation print for the past 35 years are given. Figures from FY 2013-14 to 2023-24 are CPI combined numbers (base 2012: 100), and between 1990 and 2011, they are CPI - industrial workers.
It may be noted CPI inflation rates are financial year-end numbers, i.e., for March-end.
It may be noted CPI inflation rates are financial year-end numbers, i.e., for March-end.
Tweet thread (Post X) 13Jun2024 - Indian Economy Data Bank
Tweet dated 13Jun2024 on cumulative inflation
Tweet 23Jan2021 (quote thread) - no change in CPI basket for several years
Tweet 24Jan2021 (quote thread) - CPI vs WPI, CPI inflation, MPF, Urjit Patel Panel on MPF, GST on CPI basket items, RBI adoption of CPI as new policy benchmark, CPI basket weights, and others
Tweet 23Jan2021 (quote thread) - CPI as a representative measure of inflation (Urjit Patel panel on Monetary Policy Framework or MPF)
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References and additional data:
Top image: Bombay skyline
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Notes:
1. Government of India follows
April-March fiscal year for several decades. But
RBI follows April-March financial year (FY) only since 2021-22. RBI
followed July-June FY till 2019-20; 2020-21 (July-March) was the
transition year. Readers need to be aware of the RBI's recent fiscal year change before interpreting the data.
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Related Blog on Indian Economy:
Brief History of India's 1991 Forex Crisis and Gold Pledge 17Jun2024 India Per Capita Income in Dollars 15Nov2023
Indian Economy Data Bank 13Jun2024
RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Government of India 23May2024
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Comfortable (adequacy of reserves) 10Nov2023
Analysis of Small Savings Schemes and Interest Rates (India Gazette Notification 12Dec2019) 09Nov2023
India: Prospects and Challenges 30Oct2023
India's Crude Oil Import Dependency Jumps under Modi 25Sep2023
RBI Gold Holdings (physical gold also) 07Mar2022
India CPI Inflation vs WPI Inflation 15Aug2021
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Sources of information for this Indian Economy Data Bank:
Weblinks and Investing
RBI Monetary Policy page
RBI History: Chronology of Events: From 1926 to 2003
MOSPI press releases
MOSPI weblink - CPI index data from Jan2013 till now Select ('Time Series' on the left panel > Base 2012 > current series > then look for required data > select 'All India' and 'General Index (All Groups)'
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Read more:
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India Forex Data Bank
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Why RBI Won't Favour A Strong Rupee
Currency Pairs: How to Calculate Depreciation or Appreciation
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RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Govt of India
The Little Secret Behind Nifty Next 50 Index's Recent Success
Rapid Rise of India's PMS Industry
NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns: 2006 to 2024
How to Buy Nifty Midcap Index 03May2024
NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 31Mar2024
India Passive Funds and Their Asset Size 29Apr2024
Global Market Data 31Mar2024
Understanding Real Sensex and Currency Debasement
Select Gilt Funds Performance
Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.
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