Indian Economy Data Bank
(This is for information and educational purposes only. This should not be
construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA
Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any
investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks
/ investments discussed if any.)
This
is a data bank related to Indian economy (other than forex topics). The topics covered here are: India GDP, inflation dynamics, consumer price index (CPI inflation), wholesale price index (WPI inflation), monetary policy, interest rates, fiscal deficit, government debt and a host of other topics.
For India Forex Data Bank with data on foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange intervention, foreign
investment flows to India and other topics., you can check here.
(article continues below)
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Related blogs on India Data:
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The
data points here contain flow data in a year, stock data at the end of
the year and yearly changes / growth rates.
Sources of information for the data bank are given at the end of the blog.
This is a typical list of data points:
|
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Capital markets |
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CPI |
Consumer Price Inflation |
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Consumption |
|
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Demat accounts |
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Fiscal deficit |
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Government spending |
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GDP |
Gross Domestic Product or national income |
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GNI |
Gross National Income / per capita GNI |
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GVA |
Gross Value Added |
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Interest rates |
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MPC |
RBI's Monetary Policy Committee |
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MPF |
Monetary Policy Framework |
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Mutual funds asset growth |
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Private investment |
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RBI |
Reserve Bank of India |
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Savings |
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WPI |
Wholesale Price Inflation |
Collating
data from various sources is a challenge as the data points are
released on different dates at specific time intervals.
The
author has over the years written various blogs on India GDP growth, per capita income, small savings schemes, crude oil imports, financialisation, challenges faced by economy, government debt and others.
The articles on these subjects can be found here: Blog of Blogs Theme-wise under the topic Indian Economy.
The blog will be updated periodically with new data exhibits and charts. Newer updates will be at the top. This will enable readers to access all the related data at one place.
Brief
notes and relevant blog weblinks, if any, will be added along with the
data. You can click on the data exhibits for a better view.
- - -
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QIP funds raised by India Inc: (Tweet thread 16Dec2024):
Update 16Dec2024: Chart 29:
Data from FY 2006-07 to FY 2024-25 >
During the financial year 2024-25 (data for 8 months till 30Nov2024), India Inc raised funds worth Rs 1.12 lakh crore via QIPs or qualified institutional placements (equity capital).
Indian media are in the habit of saying this is the "highest" QIP raised in the past 19 years. Data are available for the past 19 years. But the media don't contextualize or give any reference to the data over the years.
The data shown in the below chart are adjusted for average BSE market cap of all listed companies in India. When we adjust the QIP raised data with average BSE market cap, the picture changes.
In the past 19 years, the biggest QIP raised is in FY 2009-10, when QIP raised was 0.91 per cent of the average market cap for the financial year. Media will give only the absolute numbers, without adjusting with other metrics, like, market cap -- in the process, the data lose relevance and may lead to misinterpretation.
As data from FY 2006-07 to 2024-25 show: In 2009-10, 2007-08, 2020-21 & others, QIP as a percentage of BSE market cap is much higher compared to FY 2023-24 and 2024-25.
For example, in FY 2009-10, India Inc raised QIP of Rs 41,968 crore (0.91 per cent of market cap) when the average BSE market cap was just Rs 46.26 lakh crore. Whereas, QIP raised was Rs 62,520 crore (just 0.47 per cent of market cap) in 2017-18 when average BSE market cap was Rs 131.90 lakh crore -- though absolute QIP number is higher.
Take another example: in both FY 2014-15 & 2021-22, the QIP raised is nearly the same at Rs 28,500 crore.
But in 2014-15, the Sensex and BSE market cap are much lower -- hence, the amount raised is nearly three times in 2014-15, when compared to 2021-22.
Don't believe the nonsense of absolute numbers.
Media always give you absolute numbers, without giving any context or background.
Just because data points are available, don't quote them or believe in them.
Question the data and do your own research.
Data sources: Prime Database for QIP raised and BSE Limited for BSE market cap of all listed companies.
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EPFO Investments in Equity ETFs: (Old blog dated 18Mar2023):
Update 03Dec2024: Charts 24 to 28:
Employees'
Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is a statutory body established by
the Government of India. EPFO collects, administers and manages
provident funds and pension funds of various employees in India.
EPFO invests in debt securities and equity exchange traded funds (ETFs).
According to a PIB press release on 02Dec2024, in FY 2024-25 (till Oct2024), EPFO invested Rs 34,208 crore in equity ETFs; as against Rs 57,184 crore invested for the entire FY 2023-24. Since August 2015,
EPFO's gross investments (does not include redemptions) in equity ETFs amount to Rs 325,900 crore till 31Oct2024. This is just face value of the gross
investments made by EPFO.
Due to significant amounts being invested by EPFO in Indian equities since 2015 and rising investments by mutual funds in India in recent years, the dominance of domestic institutional institutions (DIIs) has increased. The flow of money from DIIs has been acting as a counterweight to FPIs or foreign portfolio investors in the Indian stock market. The share of FPIs in Indian equities (FPI AUC) has progressively come down from 19.5 per cent in Mar2017 to 16.4 per cent in Sep2024.
The total corpus of various funds managed by EPFO is Rs 24.76 lakh crore, of which equity ETF investments are Rs 2.35 lakh crore as on 31Mar2024. Equity ETFs alone account for just 9.5 per cent of the total EPFO corpus.
Total AUM of ETFs (includes debt and equity ETFs, but excludes gold ETFs) in India is Rs 7.83 lakh crore as on 31Oct2024. It swelled phenomenally from a level of just Rs 6,700 crore as on 31Dec2014.
EPFO has invested only in six equity ETFs. The total AUM of these six equity ETFs is Rs 4.89 lakh crore. Only these six ETFs (due to heavy investments by EPFO) account for a staggering 72.6 per cent of the total AUM of 169 equity ETFs in India as of 31Oct2024.
The groundwork for EPFO investments in equity ETFs was initiated in 2013 by the then finance minister, P Chidambaram in his 2013-14 budget speech (for more on this, see old blog).
Charts:
EPFO Investments in Equity ETFs: 2015 to 2024
Total corpus of various funds managed by EPFO
Total assets of ETFs in India (excluding gold ETFs)
AUM of six ETFs in which EPFO invested
Timeline of EPFO Equity Investment Pattern
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India GDP quarterly growth rates: Real and Nominal GDP:
Update 01Dec2024: Chart 23:
India real GDP growth rate for the Jul-Sep2024 quarter (Q2) fell to 5.4 per cent, which is almost a two-year low, as per data released by MOSPI, Govt of India on 29Nov2024.
As can be seen from the chart below, absolute real GDP fell from Rs 47.24 lakh crore in Jan-Mar2024 quarter to Rs 43.64 lakh crore in Apr-Jun2024 quarter, though it slightly increased in the Jul-Sep2024 quarter.
Even absolute nominal GDP figures have been falling for the past two quarters. It declined from Rs 78.28 lakh crore (Jan-Mar2024) to Rs 77.31 lakh crore (Apr-Jun2024) and further to Rs 76.60 lakh crore (Jul-Sep2024).
India follows an April to March financial year.
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Growth in Gold loans (loans against gold jewellery):
Update 30Nov2024: Chart 22:
Gold loans grew by 43.4 per cent from Rs 1.03 lakh crore in Mar2024 to Rs 1.47 lakh crore in Sep2024, as per RBI data (please check RBI monthly bulletins and RBI DBIE for data).
In Mar2024, gold loans outstanding stood at 1.9 per cent and it has risen to 2.6 per cent by Sep2024. The sharp growth in gold loans has raised concerns in India about rising indebtedness of households indicating potential economic distress and strain in the economy.
Gold loans were 1.1 per cent of personal loans in Mar2019 and 2.5 per cent in Mar2021 (COVID-19 effect -- during COVID-19 Pandemic, households borrowed heavily to meet essential hospitalisation charges and medical bills).
Data of gold loans outstanding prior to 2019 is not available in RBI DBIE.
Tweet dated 30Nov2024
Data from 2019 to 2024 >
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Update 19Nov2024: Chart 21:
Growth of India's Mutual Fund Industry: A Key Contributor to Economic Expansion (For a detailed analysis, please refer to the blog dated 18Jul2024)
The remarkable upsurge in the size of India's Mutual Fund (MF) industry is playing a pivotal role in the growth of the Indian economy, particularly in fostering the democratisation of finance. However, there remain significant challenges within the industry’s culture that need attention.
In the 2024-25 financial year, India's mutual fund industry experienced an impressive 26 per cent growth in assets under management (AUM), based on data available through Oct2024.
The remarkable upsurge in the size of India's Mutual Fund (MF) industry is playing a pivotal role in the growth of the Indian economy, particularly in fostering the democratisation of finance. However, there remain significant challenges within the industry’s culture that need attention.
In the 2024-25 financial year, India's mutual fund industry experienced an impressive 26 per cent growth in assets under management (AUM), based on data available through Oct2024.
The industry's total assets surged from Rs 53.40 lakh crore on 31Mar2024 to Rs 67.26 lakh crore by 31Oct2024, reflecting robust investor participation and growing confidence in mutual funds as an investment vehicle.
Growth from 2013 to 2024 >
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Real interest rates in India: (old blog
dated 05Aug2021) Real interest rate in India for the month of Oct2024
fell to 0.29 per cent versus 1.01 per cent in Sep2024, as India's CPI
inflation soared to 6.2 per cent, which is a 14-month high, while the
LAF Repo rate remained at the same level.
Update 19Nov2024: Chart 20:
In fact, LAF Repo rate has been at 6.50 per cent since 08Feb2023. Real interest rate equals LAF repo rate minus CPI inflation.
One-year term deposit rates offered by banks in India have been stagnant in the past one year -- indicating weak monetary policy transmission in India and lack of competition among banks.
Real interest rate plummeted to 0.29 per cent in Oct2024, while the one-year high was 2.90 per cent in Jul2024. It may be recalled Indian savers suffered negative real interest rates between Nov2019 and Aug2023 -- however, in the past 14 months real interest rates have been positive (old Tweet thread dated 14Jun2020).
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India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
Update 19Nov2024: Chart 19:
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The
cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers
have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year
numbers.
The
data shown in the chart are for the past 14 months -- cumulative data
for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also
included in the chart.
With 6.2 per cent for Oct2024, consumer price inflation reached 14-month high; the print is also outside the RBI monetary policy target range of 2-6 per cent.
The higher print for CPI of 6.2 per cent is mainly due to higher food prices (food inflation at 10.87 per cent), which accounts for almost 50 per cent of India's CPI basket.
As of Oct2024, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 63.9, 33.7 and 18.9 per cent respectively.
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How Rates and Ratios are Moving : (old blog dated 26May2022) The
following chart provides data on key interest rates and ratios of
interest rate market in India. The rates and ratios range from CPI
inflation, Policy repo rate, lending and deposit rates, short-term rates
such as call money and Treasury bill yields, long term bond yields and
government-administered small savings rates of PPF, NSC and post office
deposit rates.
Update 10Nov2024: Chart 18:
By looking at data over medium and long periods, one can glean some insights.
In the past three months (between end-Jun2024 and end-Sep2024), there have been no changes in policy rates and ratios of RBI, though during
the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting on 09Oct2024, RBI changed the monetary
policy stance to 'neutral' from earlier 'withdrawal of accommodation.'
CPI and WPI inflation have been all over the place while the RBI has kept policy rates and ratios unchanged since Jun2022.
Between end-Jun2024 and end-Sep2024, short term interest rates (call money rates and T-Bill rates) have fallen. Even 10-year G-Sec benchmark yield has come down.
There have been no changes in Post Office savings schemes (NSC, PPF, post office term deposit rates, etc.) in the past one year. It is not clear why Govt of India has not been changing these interest rates as per the market rates. (Reference: RBI WSS data weblink)
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India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
Update 18Oct2024: Chart 17:
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The
cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers
have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year
numbers.
The
data shown in the chart are for the past 14 months -- cumulative data
for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also
included in the chart.
As of Sep2024, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 61.7, 33.2 and 19 per cent respectively.
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India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
Update 22Sep2024: Chart 16:
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The
cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers
have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year
numbers.
The
data shown in the chart are for the past 13 months -- cumulative data
for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also
included in the chart.
The cumulative inflation shows a mixed trend in the past five to six months -- slowing in some months and rising again later.
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How Rates and Ratios are Moving : (old blog dated 26May2022)
Update 17Aug2024: Chart 15:
By looking at data over medium and long periods, one can glean some insights.
In the past six months, policy rates of India's central bank (Reserve Bank of India or RBI) have remained stable, while inflationary pressures have ebbed a little. In the same period, long-term bond yields have fallen while the government has kept small savings interest rates stagnant.
It's strange banks have been raising their lending rates (Tweet / X Post thread dated 01Aug2024) while inflationary pressures have somewhat eased and RBI has kept policy rates the same as before.
One excuse for banks raising lending rates is their inability to raise deposits from the public -- because of which their cost of deposits has gone up a bit. Bank credit growth has outpaced deposit growth rate, keeping banks scrambling for deposits.
Despite tall claims by RBI, monetary policy transmission (MPT) has been weak in India and the channels available are not very effective -- in the process the interests of common citizens are jeopardised.
Chart: How Rates and Ratios are Moving: Quarterly date from Jun2022 to Jun2024 (for older data, please check blog dated 26May2022) >
(please click on the image for a better view)
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India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
Update 12Aug2024: Chart 14:
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The
cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers
have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year
numbers.
The
data shown in the chart are for the past 14 months -- cumulative data
for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also
included in the chart.
The fact that one-year CPI inflation for Jul2024 fell to 3.5 per cent is a statistical illusion because the base of Jul2023 was high (please check Jul2023 inflation was a staggering 7.4 per cent).
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Total Assets of National Pension System (NPS): Total assets under management (AUM) of NPS, including those of Atal Pension Yojana (APY) are Rs 11.73 lakh crore as on 31Mar2024. As on 30Jun2024, the total AUM is Rs 12.48 lakh crore.
Update 22Jul2024: Charts 12 and 13:
To get a perspective, it may be mentioned the AUM of MF industry as on 30Jun2024 is Rs 61.2 lakh crore, which is almost five times the AUM of NPS.
During FY 2023-24, NPS assets grew by 30 per cent. In the past five years (between Mar2019 and Mar2024), the absolute growth in NPS asset is a staggering 270 per cent.
The asset growth may be due to a combination of: addition of new subscribers, growth in assets especially equities and awareness about NPS benefits.
Of the NPS assets, the main asset classes are government securities or G-Sec (54.2 per cent of total assets), corporate bond (23.7 per cent) and equity (18.9 per cent).
The share of equity in NPS assets grew from 14 per cent in Mar2019 to almost 19 per cent in Mar2024.
There are 11 pension fund managers (PFMs) registered under NPS. The top five PFMs by assets, as on 31Mar2024, are SBI Pension Fund, LIC PF, UTI PF, HDFC PF and ICICI PF. Interestingly, the top three PFMs manage over 90 per cent of NPS assets as on 31Mar2024.
Key points from interview of Deepak Mohanty, PFRDA chairman with ET Now on 19Jul2024:
- annual return for equity portion during FY 2023-24 was 36%
- since inception, the equity returns are 14% annualised
- total NPS AUM by Mar2025 may be around Rs 15 lakh crore
- he refused to comment about states of Himachal Pradesh,
Punjab and Rajasthan going out of NPS in recent years
Data sources for the two charts below:
Handbook of NPS statistics 2024
Handbook - list of tables
Handbook of NPS statistics 2024 glossary
NPS AUM growth - NPS Trust
NPS returns - NPS Trust
NPS returns - VR
Chart showing asset-wise classification of NPS:
Chart showing PFM-wise assets of NPS as on 31Mar2024:
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Real interest rates in India: (old blog dated 05Aug2021) Real interest rate in India for the month of Jun2024 fell to 1.42 per cent versus 1.75 per cent in May2024, as India's CPI inflation moved above 5 per cent after a gap of three months, while the LAF Repo rate remained at the same level.
Update 21Jul2024: Chart 11:
In fact, LAF Repo rate has been at 6.50 per cent since 08Feb2023. Real interest rate equals LAF repo rate minus CPI inflation.
One-year term deposit rates offered by banks in India have been stagnant in the past one year -- indicating weak monetary policy transmission in India and lack of competition among banks.
Real interest rate currently is slightly lower compare to 1.63 per cent in Jun2023. It may be recalled Indian savers suffered negative real interest rates between Nov2019 and Aug2023 -- however, in the past 10 months real interest rates have been positive (old Tweet thread dated 14Jun2020).
Data sources are Reserve Bank of India, CCIL India and author.
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India Mutual Fund industry asset growth: Upsurge in asset size of India's Mutual Fund industry is contributing to the growth of the Indian economy, especially in democratisation of finance; though the MF industry's culture leaves a lot to be desired.
Update 21Jul2024: Charts 9 and 10:
During the
financial year 2023-24, total assets of India's mutual fund industry
grew by 35 per cent. The total assets under management (AUM) grew from
Rs 39.4 lakh crore as on 31Mar2023 to Rs 53.4 lakh crore as on
31Mar2024 (Please see blog dated 18Jul2024 for more details).
Growth from 2013 to 2024 >
Growth from 2000 to 2012 >
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India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
Update 12Jul2024: Chart 8:
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The
cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers
have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year
numbers.
The
data shown in the chart are for the past 14 months -- cumulative data
for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also
included in the chart.
For example, as at the end of Jun2024, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 63, 33.1 and 17.9 per cent respectively.
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India GNI per capita as per World Bank : India's per capita national income, in current US dollars, grew by 5.8 percent in 2023 to 2,540, as per latest data from World Bank (related blog dated 15Nov2023).
Update 04Jul2024: Charts 5 to 7:
India's rank as per capita GNI in current US dollars (Atlas method) is 148 in the world, among the 198 countries for which data is available.
Gross national
income (GNI) is the total income earned by a nation’s residents and businesses irrespective of where it is
earned. It can be calculated by adding income from foreign countries to country’s
gross domestic product (GDP).
Per capita GNI is often considered as an indicator of a nation's economic health and standard of living. Since the turn of the century, India's per capital national income in US dollars grew by an annualised rate of 7.92 per cent.
Data sources are: per capita GNI (Atlas method) and India data.
Data from 1998 to 2023: As can be observed from the chart, the period from 2003 to 2007 has seen the biggest jump in India's per capita GNI in current US dollars.
Comparison with comparable countries: Comparable
countries, like, BRICS, G20 and others are included in the chart below to see how
India performs relatively. As per World Bank’s 2023 data about per capita GNI as on 28Jun2024, India is a lower middle income country.
India's rank at 148 is below that of comparables like, Bangladesh, Egypt and Vietnam. India’s rank in per capita income is the lowest not only among the
G20 nations, but also among BRICS countries (it may be noted on a per capita purchasing power parity or PPP method, India's rank in 2023 is slightly higher at 131).
In 2023, Russia moved from an 'upper middle income' country to a 'high income' country, even though the country is at war with Ukraine.
World Bank Country Classification: World Bank divides countries into four groups by their income level. The groups are: low income, lower middle income, upper middle income and high income.
The thresholds for country classification, as on 01Jul2024 for FY 2025, are given in the below chart. The levels are as per Atlas GNI per capita in current US dollars (2023 data).
As India's per capita GNI is USD 2,540, it falls under lower middle income country. To reach the current threshold (which is likely to go up in future) of USD 4,516 for upper middle income category, it may take more than a decade for the world's most populous nation to reach the next higher income level threshold.
As per 2023 World Bank data, India's population is 142.86 crore or 1.43 billion.
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Update 24Jun2024: Chart 4:
There is a wide gap between GDP (gross domestic product) and GVA (gross value added) numbers; the gap could be explained by higher taxes (yes, PM Modi government has been extracting more flesh from you and me) and lower subsidies (yes, they have cut subsidies affecting millions of poor people).
GDP / GVA numbers are always revised three of four times, because these are just estimates. Indian data command poor credibility.
Real GDP is derived from nominal GDP after adjusting for GDP deflator, which is derived from CPI (consumer price inflation) and WPI (wholesale price inflation).
If you could massage GDP deflator, real GDP looks high.
Economists have questioned the revised GDP methodology and the wide gap between private consumption and GDP prints.
GDP / GVA numbers are always revised three of four times, because these are just estimates. Indian data command poor credibility.
Real GDP is derived from nominal GDP after adjusting for GDP deflator, which is derived from CPI (consumer price inflation) and WPI (wholesale price inflation).
If you could massage GDP deflator, real GDP looks high.
Economists have questioned the revised GDP methodology and the wide gap between private consumption and GDP prints.
India real GDP growth rates (base year 2011-12) from 1998-99 to 2023-24 >
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Update 13Jun2024: Charts 1 to 3:
It's always better to look at the data with fresh eyes. The mainstream media and others focus too much on the latest monthly data ignoring the cumulative data often.
The following is a chart that shows cumulative CPI inflation numbers for the past 10, five and three years.
The cumulative data will give you a new perspective on how much consumers have suffered over the years, instead of just looking at one-year numbers.
The data shown in the chart are for the past 13 months -- cumulative data for 10, 5 and 3 years are given. Year-on-year CPI inflation is also included in the chart.
For example, as at the end of May2024, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 62, 32.1 and 17 per cent respectively.
When people have suffered cumulative inflation of 32.1 and 17 per cent for the past three and five years respectively, how can media report (while reporting the year-on-year inflation) saying "CPI inflation has eased to 4.7 per cent?"
This is downright mischievous and disingenuous on the part of the media to ignore the pain suffered by common people owing to steep price rise, in the past three to five years.
To give another example: As at the end of Dec2023, the cumulative inflation for the past 10, five and three years is 62.2, 32.5 and 18.1 per cent respectively.
Cumulative 10-year inflation has been in the range of 60 to 68 per cent for the past one year, cumulative 5-year inflation has been in the range of 31 to 33 per cent and cumulative 3-year inflation has been in the range of 17 to 20 per cent.
In the past one year, Jul2023, Aug2023 and Dec2023 are the months with highest inflation rate with year-on-year inflation of 7.4, 6.8 and 5.7 per cent respectively.
The media are in the habit of misreporting. To say inflation has 'eased' is hoodwinking the vulnerable sections of soceity.
One needs to see cumulative inflation. As it is, all governments manipulate data, including that of price rise.
CPI basket in India hasn't been changed for several years; by not changing the basket, government has been cheating the public to an extent of thousands of crores of rupees.
As you know, consumers' real CPI basket has changed drastically since the COVID-19 Pandemic. The underprivileged in India have been reeling under steep price rise since Oct.2019; much before the COVID-19 outbreak.
All the changes in dearness allowance (DA) of employees in India are linked to 'official' inflation numbers released by government. Cost inflation index (CII) used for capital gains taxes' calculation (released by Income Tax Dept) is related to 'official' CPI / WPI print and so is GDP.
By manipulating 'official' CPI / WPI data, it is easy for the governments to save themselves a lot of money and in the process Indian citizens are defrauded of thousands of crores of rupees.
One needs to see cumulative inflation. As it is, all governments manipulate data, including that of price rise.
CPI basket in India hasn't been changed for several years; by not changing the basket, government has been cheating the public to an extent of thousands of crores of rupees.
As you know, consumers' real CPI basket has changed drastically since the COVID-19 Pandemic. The underprivileged in India have been reeling under steep price rise since Oct.2019; much before the COVID-19 outbreak.
All the changes in dearness allowance (DA) of employees in India are linked to 'official' inflation numbers released by government. Cost inflation index (CII) used for capital gains taxes' calculation (released by Income Tax Dept) is related to 'official' CPI / WPI print and so is GDP.
By manipulating 'official' CPI / WPI data, it is easy for the governments to save themselves a lot of money and in the process Indian citizens are defrauded of thousands of crores of rupees.
However, like Indira Gandhi, they would deceitfully say, "this is a global phenomenon."
Raw monthly data: Consumer Price Index or CPI combined (base: CPI 2012 = 100) from 2014 to 2024 is as follows >
India CPI Inflation : India consumer price inflation data:
The longer the data, the better. Here, CPI inflation print for the past 35 years are given. Figures from FY 2013-14 to 2023-24 are CPI combined numbers (base 2012: 100), and between 1990 and 2011, they are CPI - industrial workers.
It may be noted CPI inflation rates are financial year-end numbers, i.e., for March-end.
It may be noted CPI inflation rates are financial year-end numbers, i.e., for March-end.
Tweet thread (Post X) 13Jun2024 - Indian Economy Data Bank
Tweet dated 13Jun2024 on cumulative inflation
Tweet 23Jan2021 (quote thread) - no change in CPI basket for several years
Tweet 24Jan2021 (quote thread) - CPI vs WPI, CPI inflation, MPF, Urjit Patel Panel on MPF, GST on CPI basket items, RBI adoption of CPI as new policy benchmark, CPI basket weights, and others
Tweet 23Jan2021 (quote thread) - CPI as a representative measure of inflation (Urjit Patel panel on Monetary Policy Framework or MPF)
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References and additional data:
Top image: Bombay skyline
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Notes:
1. Government of India follows
April-March fiscal year for several decades. But
RBI follows April-March financial year (FY) only since 2021-22. RBI
followed July-June FY till 2019-20; 2020-21 (July-March) was the
transition year. Readers need to be aware of the RBI's recent fiscal year change before interpreting the data.
-------------------
Related Blog on Indian Economy:
Brief History of India's 1991 Forex Crisis and Gold Pledge 17Jun2024 India Per Capita Income in Dollars 15Nov2023
Indian Economy Data Bank 13Jun2024
RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Government of India 23May2024
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Comfortable (adequacy of reserves) 10Nov2023
Analysis of Small Savings Schemes and Interest Rates (India Gazette Notification 12Dec2019) 09Nov2023
India: Prospects and Challenges 30Oct2023
India's Crude Oil Import Dependency Jumps under Modi 25Sep2023
RBI Gold Holdings (physical gold also) 07Mar2022
India CPI Inflation vs WPI Inflation 15Aug2021
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Sources of information for this Indian Economy Data Bank:
Weblinks and Investing
RBI Monetary Policy page
RBI History: Chronology of Events: From 1926 to 2003
MOSPI press releases
MOSPI weblink - CPI index data from Jan2013 till now Select ('Time Series' on the left panel > Base 2012 > current series > then look for required data > select 'All India' and 'General Index (All Groups)'
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Read more:
Blog of Blogs Theme-wise
You Can Boast About It!
India Forex Data Bank
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Why RBI Won't Favour A Strong Rupee
Currency Pairs: How to Calculate Depreciation or Appreciation
Sensex versus Gold Price
RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Govt of India
The Little Secret Behind Nifty Next 50 Index's Recent Success
Rapid Rise of India's PMS Industry
NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns: 2006 to 2024
How to Buy Nifty Midcap Index 03May2024
NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 31Mar2024
India Passive Funds and Their Asset Size 29Apr2024
Global Market Data 31Mar2024
Understanding Real Sensex and Currency Debasement
Select Gilt Funds Performance
Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.
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