Why RBI Won't Favour A Strong Rupee
(This is for information and educational purposes only. This should not be
construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA
Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any
investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks
/ investments discussed if any.)
Abbreviations used:
FPI foreign portfolio investors
FDI foreign direct investment
RBI Reserve Bank of India
Forex foreign exchange
USD US dollar
INR Indian rupee
GDP gross domestic product
CGRA currency and gold revaluation account
In an ideal world, exchange rates are market-determined. But in practice, it is not so. Several countries influence the value of their domestic currency by intervening in the foreign exchange markets.
Some countries tend to use capital controls and monetary policy in order to influence the domestic exchange rates.
In this blog, we shall discuss issues surrounding dollar-rupee exchange rate, drivers of rupee volatility, central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets, the need for large-sized forex reserves and reasons why India’s central bank would not favour a rupee appreciation.
1. Fewer episodes of rupee appreciation
In the past 25 financial years, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed Indian rupee to appreciate versus the US dollar eight times only.
RBI is India’s central bank. India’s financial or fiscal year starts from April to March.
The following exhibit shows the financial years in which rupee appreciated against the dollar.
The highest appreciation for rupee in a financial year was 2009-10 when rupee appreciated by 12.9 per cent versus the dollar. D Subbarao was governor of RBI then.
Exhibit 1: Biggest Rupee Appreciation Years in the Last 25 Years >
Exhibit 1: Biggest Rupee Appreciation Years in the Last 25 Years >
Exhibit 1 does not capture the intra-year movement of rupee (you could check USD-INR graphs from data aggregators for better clarity and understanding).
If you consider the intra-year episodes of rupee appreciation, the biggest rupee appreciation was between Jul2006 and Nov2007 (16-month period) when rupee gained 19.5 per cent versus the dollar (Exhibit 2 below).
This was when YV Reddy was RBI governor. Between FY 2003-04 to 2007-08, India experienced record (till then) foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows of Rs 230,000 crore, of which Rs 211,500 crore in stocks and Rs 18,600 crore in debt segment.
Exhibit 2 showing episodes of huge rupee appreciation versus the dollar >
Exhibits 3 and 4, at the end of the blog, provide details of USD-INR yearly changes for financial year-wise (April-March) and calendar year-wise respectively.
2. RBI forex intervention
Though the exchange rate of the rupee is determined by market forces of supply and demand in the inter-bank market, RBI routinely intervenes in the foreign exchange (forex) market to smoothen what it describes as ‘excessive volatility.’
RBI wants to discourage any speculation in forex markets with its direct intervention.
RBI official position on its forex intervention is that it intervenes to moderate any excess volatility in rupee and it does not have any pre-specified target or range of rupee exchange rate.
RBI’s forex intervention is guided by the objective of ensuring orderly movement in the rupee exchange rate. As part of its forex intervention, RBI buys and sells US dollars in the forex market.
Though the exchange rate of the rupee is determined by market forces of supply and demand in the inter-bank market, RBI routinely intervenes in the foreign exchange (forex) market to smoothen what it describes as ‘excessive volatility.’
RBI wants to discourage any speculation in forex markets with its direct intervention.
RBI official position on its forex intervention is that it intervenes to moderate any excess volatility in rupee and it does not have any pre-specified target or range of rupee exchange rate.
RBI’s forex intervention is guided by the objective of ensuring orderly movement in the rupee exchange rate. As part of its forex intervention, RBI buys and sells US dollars in the forex market.
When RBI sells US dollars in forex market, it increases their supply relative to the rupee, with an intention to prop up the rupee value. On the other hand, when RBI buys dollars, it is likely to result in rupee depreciation, provided other things remain the same.
For RBI, exchange rate stability is as important an objective as price stability is. RBI is wary that undue rupee volatility may upset sentiment in financial markets and it could be an impediment to India’s economic growth.
RBI is custodian of India’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves on behalf of Government of India and also manages them. RBI uses its forex reserves as a bulwark against exchange rate volatility aiming for orderly movement in forex markets.
RBI is custodian of India’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves on behalf of Government of India and also manages them. RBI uses its forex reserves as a bulwark against exchange rate volatility aiming for orderly movement in forex markets.
RBI also provides liquidity in forex markets in case of sudden capital outflows out of India.
India has amassed huge forex reserves worth USD 170 billion in the past four years. As per latest data from RBI, India's forex reserves amount to USD 647 billion.
3. Why does India need such a large size of forex reserves?
The US has only USD 36 billion of forex reserves. As US dollar enjoys ‘exorbitant privilege’ as a global reserve currency, the US does not need to hold any forex reserves.
Though Government of India and RBI have made some efforts for internationalization of rupee, the efforts have come to nought so far.
India has net negative International Investment Position (IIP) – meaning our foreign liabilities are higher than foreign assets.
The US has only USD 36 billion of forex reserves. As US dollar enjoys ‘exorbitant privilege’ as a global reserve currency, the US does not need to hold any forex reserves.
Though Government of India and RBI have made some efforts for internationalization of rupee, the efforts have come to nought so far.
India has net negative International Investment Position (IIP) – meaning our foreign liabilities are higher than foreign assets.
In order to manage any external risks arising from volatile capital flows, India needs the buffer of forex reserves.
However, India’s foreign exchange reserves are not bolstered by export surplus as is the case with China. India’s foreign exchange reserves are not ‘earned reserves.’ They are basically ‘borrowed funds’ accumulated through capital flows in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio flows (FPI). At some future date, these capital flows will have to be repaid.
Why are foreign exchange reserves considered as ‘borrowed funds?’
India is a capital-starved country. Banks and corporates in India borrow foreign money through external commercial borrowings or ECBs, foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) and others. ECBs are commercial loans in the form of bank loans, buyers’ credit, suppliers’ credit and securitized instruments.
FCCBs are bonds issued by Indian companies expressed in foreign currency.
Some part of India’s foreign exchange reserves is fortified from these ‘borrowed funds.’
Banks and corporates raise foreign money at market interest rates, while RBI invests the reserves in low-yielding government securities of developed economies. In a big picture sense, the cost of interest paid by corporates is much higher than the interest income earned by RBI on its foreign exchange reserves. The excess of the cost paid over the interest earned, is a huge cost to Indian economy.
If you take China, their foreign exchange reserves have been accumulated through export surplus, not through capital flows. Hence, Chinese reserves are not costly for its economy.
The FDI inflows are considered more stable and desirable from India’s viewpoint versus the FPI inflows which are seen as hot money, though foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been one of the pillars of Indian stock market since 1992.
FPIs have been outsmarted by domestic money in the past five to six years (see FPI AUC data).
Foreign exchange reserves are vital for India in managing exchange rate volatility and are seen as a bulwark for external stability. But they impose a cost to the economy (my article ‘abysmal returns’ of 2014).
However, India’s foreign exchange reserves are not bolstered by export surplus as is the case with China. India’s foreign exchange reserves are not ‘earned reserves.’ They are basically ‘borrowed funds’ accumulated through capital flows in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio flows (FPI). At some future date, these capital flows will have to be repaid.
Why are foreign exchange reserves considered as ‘borrowed funds?’
India is a capital-starved country. Banks and corporates in India borrow foreign money through external commercial borrowings or ECBs, foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) and others. ECBs are commercial loans in the form of bank loans, buyers’ credit, suppliers’ credit and securitized instruments.
FCCBs are bonds issued by Indian companies expressed in foreign currency.
Some part of India’s foreign exchange reserves is fortified from these ‘borrowed funds.’
Banks and corporates raise foreign money at market interest rates, while RBI invests the reserves in low-yielding government securities of developed economies. In a big picture sense, the cost of interest paid by corporates is much higher than the interest income earned by RBI on its foreign exchange reserves. The excess of the cost paid over the interest earned, is a huge cost to Indian economy.
If you take China, their foreign exchange reserves have been accumulated through export surplus, not through capital flows. Hence, Chinese reserves are not costly for its economy.
The FDI inflows are considered more stable and desirable from India’s viewpoint versus the FPI inflows which are seen as hot money, though foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been one of the pillars of Indian stock market since 1992.
FPIs have been outsmarted by domestic money in the past five to six years (see FPI AUC data).
Foreign exchange reserves are vital for India in managing exchange rate volatility and are seen as a bulwark for external stability. But they impose a cost to the economy (my article ‘abysmal returns’ of 2014).
Data for RBI forex intervention >
4. Drivers of rupee volatility
The main drivers of rupee volatility are changes in India’s foreign exchange reserves and FPI flows. To a smaller degree, current account balance, non-FPI flows and GDP growth also could be drivers of rupee volatility.
If there is less volatility in FPI flows, rupee exchange rate tends to be stable and vice versa. And in times of augmenting of forex reserves by RBI, rupee exhibits lower volatility.
FPI outflows and inflows (“hot money”) contribute significantly to the volatility in rupee.
Rupee movement will influence India’s trade with the outside world. If there is a sudden appreciation of the rupee versus, say dollar or Euro, it can adversely impact India’s exports as Indian goods and services become more expensive for foreigners.
On the other hand, any sudden depreciation of the rupee may lead to Indian goods and services becoming cheaper. But it would also make Indian imports, like crude oil and other commodities, costlier to import.
If rupee movement is too volatile, foreign companies will be reluctant to trade with India, so that is why exchange rate stability is a key factor in Indian economic growth.
Indian rupee experienced high volatility during GFC, 2011 European debt crisis and 2013 Taper Tantrum due to sudden capital outflows and elevated current account deficit.
5. Exchange rates and export competitiveness
Several countries use exchange rates of local currencies to boost their export competitiveness. China is a prime example of such an approach.
China often uses its exchange rate (Chinese Renminbi) for boosting its exports. Chinese in the past three decades is export-led. So, export competitiveness is crucial for China.
Prior to 2020, the US dubbed China as ‘currency manipulator,’ though it dropped the phrase since 2020. The US Treasury, even now, keeps countries such as, China, Vietnam, Germany and Taiwan on its Monitoring List for any possible use of currency for boosting exports at the cost of the US.
The US Treasury kept India in its Monitoring List in Dec2020, but was taken out of the list in Nov2022.
China does not allow its currency to appreciate versus other major currencies, because domestic currency depreciation suits its exports growth – India seems to be following China’s example with its ‘managed float’ policy.
It may be noted six months ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recategorised India's 'de facto' exchange rate system as "stabilised arrangement" from earlier "floating" regime.
This was due to heavy forex intervention by RBI in the forex markets. It is clear IMF is not pleased about the way India has been managing its exchange rate.
With a light-touch forex intervention, RBI could avoid the displeasure of international agencies, like, the US Treasury and the IMF.
6. Economic growth and exchange rates
Some years ago, Subramanian Swamy famously said one US dollar would one day would be equal to one Indian rupee (USD 1 = INR 1). He is supposed to be an economist.
We have so many Indians like this who confuse economics with politics.
In theory, if India is becoming world’s third largest or world’s largest economy or whatever, its currency would need to appreciate against major currencies. But economic growth and currencies may not dance like that.
We have so many Indians like this who confuse economics with politics.
In theory, if India is becoming world’s third largest or world’s largest economy or whatever, its currency would need to appreciate against major currencies. But economic growth and currencies may not dance like that.
As we’ve seen China experienced stellar GDP growth in the 1990s and 2000s, but China never allowed its currency to appreciate at least till 2005.
Between 2005 and 2013, Chinese Yuan was allowed to appreciate versus the dollar. But between 2013 and now, Yuan has again been depreciating against the dollar – though there are a few bouts of Yuan appreciation in between.
In the past 40 years, the US has experienced one of the best economic growth periods for a developed country. But the US dollar has depreciated 70 per cent versus the Japanese Yen since 1971. Mind you Japan has been in economic stagnation for over 30 years.
So many factors are at work in financial markets – theory and practice differ. What happened in the past may rhyme in future but it may not repeat.
Usually, if interest and inflation rates are higher in a country, the country’s local currency tends to depreciate versus other countries. Turkey is a recent case in point.
Turkey has seen high inflation since Nov2021. Its inflation rate is 75 per cent now. It is now wonder between Nov2021 and now, its currency Turkish Lira has almost depreciated by 70 per cent versus the US dollar.
In India, interest and inflation rates have been higher compared to the US between 1982 and 2022. This has resulted in rupee depreciation versus the dollar. Such a phenomenon (the concept of interest rate differentials and interest rate parity) may not work every year in an emerging market like India, but over long periods this is true.
In theory, all the fundamentals of a country should reflect in its local currency. But in practice it’s not so as both in the developed and developing world, governments and central banks ‘manage’ the local currencies to suit their own needs.
George Soros was able to make a killing (USD 2 billion) by shorting the British Pound in 1992, because pound was not 'managed' the way China and India do with their local currencies.
Between 2005 and 2013, Chinese Yuan was allowed to appreciate versus the dollar. But between 2013 and now, Yuan has again been depreciating against the dollar – though there are a few bouts of Yuan appreciation in between.
In the past 40 years, the US has experienced one of the best economic growth periods for a developed country. But the US dollar has depreciated 70 per cent versus the Japanese Yen since 1971. Mind you Japan has been in economic stagnation for over 30 years.
So many factors are at work in financial markets – theory and practice differ. What happened in the past may rhyme in future but it may not repeat.
Usually, if interest and inflation rates are higher in a country, the country’s local currency tends to depreciate versus other countries. Turkey is a recent case in point.
Turkey has seen high inflation since Nov2021. Its inflation rate is 75 per cent now. It is now wonder between Nov2021 and now, its currency Turkish Lira has almost depreciated by 70 per cent versus the US dollar.
In India, interest and inflation rates have been higher compared to the US between 1982 and 2022. This has resulted in rupee depreciation versus the dollar. Such a phenomenon (the concept of interest rate differentials and interest rate parity) may not work every year in an emerging market like India, but over long periods this is true.
In theory, all the fundamentals of a country should reflect in its local currency. But in practice it’s not so as both in the developed and developing world, governments and central banks ‘manage’ the local currencies to suit their own needs.
George Soros was able to make a killing (USD 2 billion) by shorting the British Pound in 1992, because pound was not 'managed' the way China and India do with their local currencies.
Such things won’t happen here, and nobody would try such a thing in India because RBI acts with heavy hand on currency speculators.
Recently, RBI banned unhedged trading in currency derivatives dissuading any speculation in currency markets. Govt of India introduced tax collection at source (TCS) on foreign spending by Indians – this may be an attempt to curb money flowing out of the country through Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).
Economist Ajay Shah recently argued RBI should allow INR depreciation so that rupee can act as a shock absorber in case of any economic trouble. There is something called impossible trinity in economics – no country can manage all the three things, namely, domestic currency, monetary policy and foreign flows simultaneously.
Recently, RBI banned unhedged trading in currency derivatives dissuading any speculation in currency markets. Govt of India introduced tax collection at source (TCS) on foreign spending by Indians – this may be an attempt to curb money flowing out of the country through Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).
Economist Ajay Shah recently argued RBI should allow INR depreciation so that rupee can act as a shock absorber in case of any economic trouble. There is something called impossible trinity in economics – no country can manage all the three things, namely, domestic currency, monetary policy and foreign flows simultaneously.
But RBI managing the currency stability, with heavy forex intervention, may create complacency among corporates and individuals; economic agents have large unhedged exposures in India – if something were to happen, such unhedged exposures may pose problems for India in future.
As Hyman Minsky said stability leads to instability in markets. Excess RBI intervention in the foreign exchange markets to manage dollar-rupee exchange rate may not be a good thing in the long term.
7. Reasons why RBI would not favour a strong rupee:
There is this long-held view that as India is one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, Indian rupee should become stronger in future. Over the past two decades or so, India has experienced robust economic growth though there are some periods of lower economic growth.
But in the past 20 years, Indian rupee has depreciated at an annualised rate of 3.21 per cent (conversely, the dollar appreciation was 2.7 per cent annualised).
But in the past 20 years, Indian rupee has depreciated at an annualised rate of 3.21 per cent (conversely, the dollar appreciation was 2.7 per cent annualised).
Reasons Why RBI Won’t Favour A Rupee Appreciation:
a) RBI makes huge losses
When rupee appreciates against the dollar and other currencies, the RBI suffers losses in its forex reserves portfolio. Conversely, when the rupee depreciates against these currencies, the RBI makes gains.
Let us use an illustration for clarity:
Suppose the dollar is now quoting at 80 rupees and the forex reserves are USD 20 billion or Rs 160,000 crore (= 80 x 20 x 100). Assuming the rupee gains in the next one month and the dollar moves to 75 rupees, the rupee equivalent of forex reserves would come down to Rs 150,000 crore (= 75 x 20 x 100). For RBI, the valuation loss would be Rs 10,000 crore.
(note: the amount of USD 20 billion was used just for illustration purpose, actual latest forex reserves are USD 647 billion)
The loss would be reflected in RBI’s Currency and Gold Revaluation Account (CGRA).
And if the rupee were to depreciate to 85 rupees against the dollar, the forex reserves would rise to Rs 170,000 crore (= 85 x 20 x 100), resulting in a gain of Rs 10,000 crore – this gets added to CGRA.
During periods of rupee depreciation, RBI’s revaluation balances (CGRA) would rise substantially.
In 2016-17, the balance in CGRA (revaluation balances) decreased by more than Rs 100,000 crore (or 16.87 per cent) from Rs 637,500 crore (as on 30Jun2016) to Rs 530,00 crore (30June2017) mainly due to appreciation of rupee against the US dollar and fall in the international price of gold.
And if the rupee were to depreciate to 85 rupees against the dollar, the forex reserves would rise to Rs 170,000 crore (= 85 x 20 x 100), resulting in a gain of Rs 10,000 crore – this gets added to CGRA.
During periods of rupee depreciation, RBI’s revaluation balances (CGRA) would rise substantially.
In 2016-17, the balance in CGRA (revaluation balances) decreased by more than Rs 100,000 crore (or 16.87 per cent) from Rs 637,500 crore (as on 30Jun2016) to Rs 530,00 crore (30June2017) mainly due to appreciation of rupee against the US dollar and fall in the international price of gold.
In 2009-10, the balances in CGRA declined by Rs 79,700 crore (valuation losses) from Rs 198,800 crore (30Jun2009) to Rs 119,100 crore (30Jun2008). The sharp decline was primarily due to INR appreciation against the USD (INR appreciated 12.9 per cent in FY 2009-10 versus the USD - Exhibit 1 above) and depreciation of other currencies against the USD.
One could cross check with RBI annual reports and find out whether, in 2009-10 and 2016-17, the RBI transferred lower surplus to Government of India.
The biggest risk for RBI balance sheet emanates from currency risk as its forex reserves constitute more than 75 per cent of its total assets.
b) Dampener for Export competitiveness
b) Dampener for Export competitiveness
RBI has to take care of price stability while keeping the growth prospects in mind. If RBI allows appreciation of the rupee, India is likely to lose its competitiveness to countries, like, China, Vietnam, Malaysia and others.
As discussed in Section 5 above, China actively uses its currency to boost its exports as it is an export-dependent economy.
India does not want to lose its export competitiveness with other Asian neighbours, like, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and others.
c) Loss of RBI surplus transfer funds for the government:
In the past 10 years, Government of India has received Rs 8.73 lakh crore in the form of surplus transfers from RBI's net income kitty.
It is notable in the past 10 years, RBI has been transferring 90 per cent of its net income to Government of India. This is a big bonanza for the government.
It may be noted between 1997 and 2013, RBI used to transfer around 50 per cent of its net income to Government of India as surplus transfer and remaining was being transferred to risk provisions (as per data from Aug2019 Bimal Jalan Committee Report on Economic Capital Framework or ECF).
If RBI allows any rupee appreciation, it is likely to incur valuation losses in its forex reserves leading to lower net income -- thus depriving the RBI surplus beneficiary (Government of India) of the extra funds.
There is no evidence that RBI's intentions are along these lines. Due to strategic reasons, RBI maintains secrecy (rightly so) over these matters.
If RBI allows any rupee appreciation, it is likely to incur valuation losses in its forex reserves leading to lower net income -- thus depriving the RBI surplus beneficiary (Government of India) of the extra funds.
There is no evidence that RBI's intentions are along these lines. Due to strategic reasons, RBI maintains secrecy (rightly so) over these matters.
However, because the way the Indian federal government has been able to extract huge money from RBI in the past 10 years and RBI has been transferring 90 per cent of its net income to the government, there is room for suspicion and speculation about the intentions of India's fiscal and monetary authorities.
8. Closing comments
If you go by fundamentals, Indian rupee will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar over long periods of three years or more, because our inflation and interest rates are higher as compared to the US.
8. Closing comments
If you go by fundamentals, Indian rupee will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar over long periods of three years or more, because our inflation and interest rates are higher as compared to the US.
This is not to say there would not be any episodes of a strong rupee in future. In fact, not to arouse the displeasure of
In the short term, dollar-rupee exchange rate will be guided by short term flows, foreign investors’ confidence in India and relative attractiveness of other currencies.
And then there are the political objectives of the government in power – which we cannot predict. As you know, Indian rupee enjoys convertibility neither of the current account nor of the capital account.
Depending on the political objectives of the government in power, RBI will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to ‘manage’ rupee exchange rate. So, this is a black box.
It is doubtful whether the current dispensation at New Delhi and Bombay will allow such a free movement of rupee.
Overall, Indian rupee will continue to depreciate versus the dollar unless the US completely messes up its fundamentals.
And then there are the political objectives of the government in power – which we cannot predict. As you know, Indian rupee enjoys convertibility neither of the current account nor of the capital account.
Depending on the political objectives of the government in power, RBI will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to ‘manage’ rupee exchange rate. So, this is a black box.
It is doubtful whether the current dispensation at New Delhi and Bombay will allow such a free movement of rupee.
Overall, Indian rupee will continue to depreciate versus the dollar unless the US completely messes up its fundamentals.
(the blog requires a little fine-tuning, please bear with me till then)
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References and additional data:
Top image: AI-generated image from Google Gemini
Exhibit 3: Financial year-wise yearly gain for USD-INR: Data include not only year-wise changes but also 5-year change (annualised). For example, between end-Mar2019 and end-Mar2024, the USD appreciated by 3.8 per cent annualised rate. And between end-Mar2011 and end-Mar2016, the annualised USD appreciation vs INR was much higher at 8.2 per cent.
For the past 25 years, USD has gained by an annualised 2.7 per cent versus INR.
Exhibit 4: Calendar year-wise yearly gain for USD-INR: Data include not only year-wise changes but also 5-year change (annualised). For example, between end-Dec2016 and end-Dec2021, the annualised appreciation for USD vs INR is only 1.8 per cent; whereas between end-Dec2007 and end-Dec2012, it was 6.8 per cent annualised.
For the past 25 years, the USD has appreciated versus INR at an annualised rate of 2.7 per cent.
Yield spread between India 10-year G-Sec and US 10-year Treasury note >
Note 1: RBI's financial year is Apr-Mar from 2021-22 onwards. For 2020-21, it was July-March (transition year). Prior to 2020-21, it was July-June.
Note 2: While RBI maintains a multi-currency portfolio, its forex reserves are expressed in the US dollar. Put differently, the US dollar is the numéraire for India's forex reserves.
Note 3: Currency and Gold Revaluation Account (CGRA): Unrealised gains/losses on valuation of Foreign Currency Assets (FCA) and Gold are not taken to the Income Account, instead recorded in the CGRA. CGRA represents accumulated net balance of unrealised gains arising out of valuation of FCA and Gold and, therefore, its balance varies with the size of the asset base, movement in the exchange rate and price of gold.
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Comfortable 10Nov2023
Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors 10Jul2022
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data 18May2022 – to include in this table, FPI outflows (volatile capital flows which have a bearing on rupee volatility)
Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors 10Jul2022
India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data 18May2022 – to include in this table, FPI outflows (volatile capital flows which have a bearing on rupee volatility)
RBI annual report 2023-24
RBI speech 21Oct2022 - Internalisation of Rupee
Bimal Jalan Committee report on ECF Aug2019 - the PDF
USD-INR historical data (as far as back as 1995) - Investing.com
RBI speech - internationalisation of rupee
11Nov2011: RBI speech: D Subbarao remarks - conditions for a global reserve currency
RBI speech - Touchdown in Turbulence
Aarati Krishnan article on tailwinds for lifting rupee
RBI monthly bulletin - EM forex reserves - adequacy, need and sources
RBI annual report 2003-04 - MSS, large FPI flows, sterilisation, increase in forex reserves, rupee appreciation, etc.
RBI Report on Currency & Finance 2002-03 - Management of External Sector - the PDF
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Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.
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