Best Value For Your Money from RamaKrishnaVadlamudi: India Forex Data Bank - vrk100

India Forex Data Bank

(This is for information and educational purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

This is a data bank related to Indian economy, especially on topics such as, foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange intervention, foreign investment flows to India and other topics.

The data points here contain flow data in a year, stock data at the end of the year and yearly changes / growth rates. Government of India follows April-March fiscal year for several decades.

But RBI follows April-March financial year (FY) only since 2021-22. RBI followed July-June FY till 2019-20; 2020-21 (July-March) was the transition year.

Readers need to be aware of the RBI's recent fiscal year change before interpreting the data.

Sources of information for the data bank are given at the end of the blog.

This is a typical list of data points:

CAD Current account deficit

CRB Contingent Risk Buffer

Debt ratio                  Short-term debt to forex reserves ratio
FCA                             Foreign currency assets; accretion / depletion also
FDI by India              FDI by Indian companies abroad
FDI flows                   Foreign investment flows
FDI repatriated        FDI repatriated out of India
Fed funds rate          US Fed's target federal funds rate
Forex intervention   Net USD sale / purchase by RBI
Forex reserves          Foreign exchange reserves; accretion / depletion also
FPI AUC                    Equity and debt assets owned by foreign investors
FPI flows                   Equity and debt portfolio investment flows

Gold reserves RBI gold reserves and physical gold

Gross FDI Gross FDI to India

Import cover            Import cover of forex reserves
Net FDI to India      FDI to india minus FDI by India
RBI surplus              RBI surplus transfer to Government

Reserves adequacy Adequacy of forex reserves or are they excess?
RoE on FCA             RBI's rate of earnings on foreign currency assets
USD-INR                  USD-INR financial- and calendar-year end data
USD-INR change    Dollar-rupee exchange rate yearly gain or loss

Volatile flows Volatile capital flows to forex reserves ratio

Collating data from various sources is a challenge as the data points are released on different dates at specific time intervals.

The author has over the years written various blogs on management of India's foreign exchange reserves, India's gold reserves, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio flows, external debt, central bank balance sheet, current account deficit, balance of payments, central bank's foreign exchange intervention, Indian exchange rate volatility, earnings on forex reserves and others.

The articles on these subjects can be found here: Blog of Blogs Theme-wise under the topic Forex.

The blog will be updated periodically with new data exhibits and charts. Newer updates will be at the top. This will enable readers to access all the related data at one place.

Brief notes and relevant blog weblinks, if any, will be added along with the data. You can click on the data exhibits for a better view.

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Update 16Jun2025: Charts 91 and 92:

Foreign Direct Investment flows : (old blog 25May2022, Tweet thread 25May2022 and Tweet thread 19Jan2024) India FDI Flows: Gross FDI flows and net FDI flows data >

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to India in FY 2024-25 were just USD 0.4 billion, the lowest in several decades.

In FY 2024-25, gross FDI inflows were USD 81 billion and FDI repatriated was USD 51.5 billion -- resulting in FDI to India (gross FDI minus repatriation) of USD 29.6 billion (see chart below for data).

The growth in gross FDI inflows was 13.7 per cent in the last financial year, while FDI repatration rose by 15.8 per cent.

However, FDI by India spiked by 75.1 per cent in 2024-25 to USD 29.2 billion -- with the result, net FDI to India collapsed by 96.5 pere cent from USD 10.1 billion in 2023-24 to just USD 0.4 billion in 2024-25.

Possible reasons for collapse of FDI flows in recent years:

Foreign companies operating in India have repatriated more money as dividends and other payments. In 2024-25, FDI repatriated out of India grew by 15.8 per cent to USD 51.5 billion.

Indian companies seem to be finding foreign markets more attractive to invest rather than in India -- which is reflected in the 75 per cent growth in FDI by India in 2024-25.

Multi national corporations (MNCs) in India have sold off their stakes in their operating companies in India, capitalising on the elevated levels of Indian stock market in the first half of 2024-25.

For example, South Korea's Hyundai Motor cashed out its holdings in Hyundai Motor India partially through a public offering (IPO). Several private equity (PE) and venture capital funds too have sold large stakes in Indian firms.

Other examples include: Whirlpool sells its stake partailly in its Indian arm, BAT in ITC Ltd, Timken, Singtel in Bharti Airtel and Vodafone in Indus Towers.

More multi national companies (MNCs), like, LG Electronics India, are planning to to come out with public offerings and exit India partially.

Last month, India's Supreme Court cautioned that rigid enforcemnt of rules ignoring market effects would be detrimental to India's aspirations of becoming a global manufacturing hub.

India's share in global FDI flows has come down in recent years.

The track record of PM Modi government in forging trade agreements is pathetic; in several cases, India has failed to implement the free trade agreement (FTA) and bilateral trade agreements properly. India scrapped bilateral trade agreements (BTA) too.

In Dec2024, Switzerland had withdrawn Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India, in retaliation to Nestle India court case -- in which India's Supreme Court ruled Nestle India to pay higher taxes on dividend payments to its Swiss parent.

Even though the government claims to be a proponent of ease of doing business, it's still poor in India. 'Red Tape' is still rampant -- decision-making is tardy very often.

Delays in tax appeals, legal delays and rectification orders / refunds frustrate investors. There is a wide chasm between policy and implementation.

India has FDI investment caps on 40 sectors ranging from retail trade to insurance, deterring foreign investors from investing in India.

As part of China Plus initiatives, India was supposed to benefit from them, but the actual beneficiaries are Vietnam and South Korea.

In general, weak Rule of Law, high trade protectionism, investment restrictions in India's several sectors and unstable tax policies have negatively impacted sentiments of foreign investors, though PM Modi government has provided political stability in the past 10 years.

Dismal track record on attracting FDI in the past 10 years:

The track record of PM Modi government in attracting net FDI inflows to India is so abysmal that in the past 10 years, the net FDI to India plumetted by 98.9 per cent from USD 31.3 billion in 2014-15 to USD 0.4 billion in 2024-25 (see below chart for data).

Though gross inflows in the past 10 years grew by 79.5 per cent, the FDI repatriated rose by 422 per cent and FDI by India surged by a staggering 624 per cent.

(note: in the next 10 days, RBI is likely to release two press releases, namely, Sources of Variation in India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves during April-March 2024-25 and Developments in India’s Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2024-25 -- so please watch out for them for any revisions in FDI data)

FDI flows data sources:

RBI monthly bulletin May2025 - Table 34 Foreign investment inflows

RBI DBIE - Foreign investment inflows (updates very late)

All data on gross FDI flows, FDI repatriated, FDI to India, FDI by India and Net FDI to India for the past 19 years from 2006-07 to 2024-25 >

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Update 15Jun2025: Chart 90:

India Forex Reserves Data: old blog dated 18May2022 (the blog has data from 1999-2000 onwards) and another old blog dated 10Nov2023 (with data on FPI AUC, FPI equity assets, FPI flows, FDI flows, India CAD, import cover, short term foreign debt, volatile capital flows, RBI earnings rate and external vulnernability indicators) >

In FY 2024-25, India's forex reserves rose by USD 21.9 billion, one of the slowest accretions in the past six years (except in 2022-23 that experienced depletion). RBI resorted to heavy forex intervention during 2024-25, with net USD sale of USD 34.5 billion -- leading to slower growth in RBI forex reserves.

But for the increase in the value of RBI gold holdings (due to a combination of sharp rise in dollar gold price internationally and new physical gold bought by RBI) in 2024-25, India's forex reserves would have dwindled in that year (see Update 05May2025 with charts 74 to 76 for RBI gold holdings).

Chart showing India's foreign exchange reserves data from FY 2009-10 till FY 2024-25. Chart also shows accretion and depletion of forex reserves during a financial year; USD sale and purchase by RBI during a financial year and USD - INR level at the end of a financial year >

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Update 15Jun2025: Charts 88 and 89:

US Dollar Sale and Purchase by Reserve Bank of India: Data on Direct Forex intervention by RBI (old blog dated 05Aug2021 with monthly and yearly data for several years)

Two charts showing monthly and quarterly data of USD sales and purchases by RBI >

Between Oct2024 and Feb2025, the RBI undertook sustained interventions in the foreign exchange market, selling a net total of USD 57.4 billion -- primarily to stabilise the rupee against the dollar. In a notable shift in Mar2025, the RBI resumed dollar purchases, buying USD 14.4 billion.

In the second half FY 2024-25, the FPIs resorted to heavy selling in Indian stock market, forcing to the RBI to intervene in forex markets (see update 15Jun2025 with chart 85 for FPI equity flows data).

For the full financial year 2024-25, the RBI forex intervention totaled with net US dollar sales of USD 34.5 billion.

During FY 2024-25, dollar gained 2.8 per cent versus the rupee, with the exchange rate moving from 83.37 as at end-Mar2024 to 85.75 at the end of Mar2025 (see Update 30Mar2025 and charts 63 to 64 for Dollar Rupee exchange rate and dollar gain versus rupee data for 25 years).

USD sales and purchases by RBI > monthly data from Jan2024 to Mar2025; and quarterly data from Jan-Mar2020 to Jan-Mar2025 >

(note: for financial-year wise data of USD sale and purchase by RBI, see update 15Jun2025 with chart 90)

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Update 15Jun2025: Charts 86 and 87:

FPI Debt Flows to India : Foreign Portfolio flows: 15-month FPI flows to India in the debt segment >

The following two charts include monthly and quarterly data of FPI or foreign portfolio investor flows into the Indian debt market. The data for debt include VRR, FAR, hybrid, MF, etc.

The charts also include month- and quarter-end levels of India benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield, so that readers can discern the impact of debt flows on the Indian debt / G-Sec market.

FPI debt flows were negative at Rs 24,400 crore in Apr2025. However, they turned positive in May2025 (see chart below for monthly data), as per data from NSDL.

In Jun2025, they resumed selling with net sales of Rs 26,650 crore so far.

Year-to-date (till 13Jun2025), FPI debt flows are positive at Rs 8,070 crore.

Bond inclusion: What is remarkable is FPI debt inflows have been quite robust in the past 20 months or so. The turning point is the inclusion of India bonds in international bond indices.

After the announcement of JP Morgan including India government bonds in their EM indices in Sep2023 and the inclusion of Indian government bonds in Bloomberg EM indices in Mar2024, FPI flows to Indian bond market have accelerated.

Between Oct2023 and now, FPI debt inflows to India are to the tune of Rs 2.14 lakh crore, though they were net sellers in the month of Apr2025 (see chart below for quarterly data).

Overall, this is a positive development for foreign portfolio flows to India.

Monthly data >

Quarterly data >

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Update 15Jun2025: Chart 85:

FPI Equity Flows to India : Foreign Portfolio flows: 18-month FPI flows to India in the equity segment (old blog 10Jul2022) >

The data include Sensex and BSE 200 levels as at the end of the respective quarter / month -- which will enable the readers to discern the impact of FPI outflows / inflows on the Indian stock market.

After heavy selling between Oct2024 and Mar2025 (with a total outflow of Rs 2.17 lakh crore), foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned positive in the months of April and May 2025, as per data from NSDL.

Total FPI inflows in Apr2025 and May2025 amount to nearly Rs 24,100 crore. Due to the positive FPI equity flows from the middle of Mar2025 and various other factors, the investor sentiment in India turned positive, with stock indices gaining 12 to 15 per cent in the past three months or so.

In Jun2025 so far, FPI outflows are to the tune of Rs 5,400 crore.

Year-to-date (till 13Jun2025), FPI equity outflows are about Rs 98,000 crore.

If you take the data for the past five years, FPI equity inflows are a piffling Rs 1.67 lakh crore.

18-month data from Dec2023 to May2025 >

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Update 13Jun2025: Charts 83 to 84:

Share of Major Currencies in Forex Reserves (old blog dated 04Nov2023 Is De-Dollarization Real?) >

Over the years, there has been a decline in the share of US dollar, an international reserve currency, in the composition of official foreign exchange or forex reserves at the global level.

A country's forex reserves are held by Central Banks in various major currencies, like, the US dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Pound Sterling, Canadian dollar and Chinese Yuan.

The share of dollar decreased from 65.2 per cent in Jun2016 to 57.8 per cent as at the end of Dec2024, though it is still the predominant currency globally. During the period, the share of Euro slightly increased to 19.8 per cent; while the share of JPY increased to 5.8 per cent and CAD to 2.8 per cent. The data are from International Monetary Fund or IMF.

In addition to currencies, global central banks also hold their forex reserves in gold, as it is considered a safe haven asset during times of volatility and heightened global uncertainty.

As per a recent report from ECB, gold has overtaken Euro as second reserve asset, after the US dollar. As of Dec2024, the share of currencies and gold in central bank forex reserves is as follows:

46% US dollar
20% gold
16% Euro
18% others

SDR Basket:

In Oct2016, the IMF added Chinese Yuan to its SDR or special drawing rights basket.

The SDR is an international reserve asset. The SDR is not a currency, but its value is based on a basket of five currencies—the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese yuan, the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling.

SDR Valuation Basket and Weights:

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Update 01Jun2025: Charts 80 to 82:

RBI surplus transfer to Govt of India - (old blog dated 23May2024) >

For the financial year 2024-25, RBI transferred a record surplus of Rs 2.69 lakh crore to Govt of India, while maintaining the contingency risk buffer (CRB) at 7.5 per cent of its balance sheet size.

As the per the revised economic capital framework (ECF) announced on 23Mar2025, RBI has increased the contingency risk buffer (CRB) range to 4.50 - 7.50 per cent of the its balance sheet size from FY 2024-25 onwards. The CRB range for FY 2023-24 was 5.50 - 6.50 per cent of the balance sheet size.

Effectively, the lower bound decreased from 5.50 to 4.50 per cent and upper bound increased from 6.50 to 7.50 per cent from 2024-25 onwards.

The reduction in the lower bound of the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) range is noteworthy, as it theoretically allows the RBI in future years to retain a smaller portion of its surplus as reserves and transfer a larger share to the Government of India. This shift could further fuel concerns about the erosion of RBI's financial autonomy and resilience—a risk that former RBI Governor YV Reddy had cautioned against in 2019, referring to it as a potential 'raiding' of the central bank’s reserves.

In the exhibit below, you can compare columns 6 and 7: whenever there is a rise in global bond yields and interest rates (as represented by Fed funds rate), RBI's rate of earnings increases in general as can be seen in years 2023-24, 2022-23 and 2018-19. (see blog on Fed Funds rate)

Chart below: RBI surplus transfer: Data from FY 2013-14 to 2024-25 relating to RBI surplus transfer, contingency risk buffer (7.5%), FCA level, FCA accretion / depletion during a year, Fed funds rate and RBI rate of earnings on its FCA, is presented in the chart below:

Column 7 in the following chart shows what return RBI earned on its FCA during a financial year. Though interest rates in the US declined between end-Mar2024 and end-Mar2025, there is an increase in RBI's rate of earnings during 2024-25.

The rate of earnings increased to 5.31 per cent in 2024-25 compared to 4.21 per cent in 2023-24. (see two screenshots from RBI annual report 2024-25 added below)

Partial explanation for the increase in rate of earnings for RBI for FY 2024-25:

1) Though accretion to forex currency assets (FCA) during 2024-25 is negative at USD 3.39 billion (column 5 in below chart), the average FCA during 2024-25 rose by 9.5 per cent or Rs 4.21 lakh crore to Rs 48.73 lakh crore (versus Rs 44.52 lakh crore average FCA during 2023-24). The increase in average FCA may have contributed to higher earnings on FCA.

FCA earnings in value terms showed a staggering 38 per cent growth from Rs 1.87 lakh crore in 2023-24 to Rs 2.59 lakh crore in 2024-25 -- effectively, FCA earnings increased by Rs 70,000 crore which enabled RBI to increase its surplus transfer to Rs 2.69 lakh crore in 2024-25 from Rs 2.11 lakh crore in the previous financial year.

It may be recalled India's forex reserves rose to a peak of USD 705 billion in Sep2024 before falling to USD 668 billion by the end of Mar2025 -- the rise in reserves during 2024-25 has obviously resulted in increase in average FCA during 2024-25.

2) But this does not fully explain the higher earnings because bond yields in the US were stagnant between between end-Mar2024 (US 10-year Treasury yield 4.21 per cent) and end-Mar2025 (4.21 per cent) -- though there was immense volatility in the bond yields during the period between end-Mar2024 and end-Mar2025.

In addition, the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 100 basis points between Mar2024 and Mar2025. India's central bank, Reserve Bank of India or RBI, does not provide any reasons for increase or decrease on the return it generates on its FCA.

In the absence of any definitive information from RBI, one could surmise that asset managers of RBI's foreign currency assets may have utilised the higher volatility in bond prices to their advantage and earned higher returns for RBI's FCA.

3) In 2024-25, earnings from FCA in value terms increased by 38 per cent; but earnings from domestic sources in value terms decreased by 9.80 per cent to Rs 79,470 crore from Rs 88,100 crore in the previous year, as per RBI annual report.

Clarification on the above table:

Data in columns 2,3 and 7 (surplus transfer, CRB and rate of earnings) are as per RBI financial year (notes 3 and 4 in the table).

But data in columns 4, 5 and 6 (FCA year-end, FCA accretion / depletion and Fed funds rate) are as per Govt of India fiscal year that is, Apr-Mar for all the years.

Two screenshots from RBI >

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Update 01Jun2025: Charts 78 to 79:

RBI Rate of Earnings on FCA: Rate of earnings generated by RBI on its foreign current assets, which are part of its forex reserves: 26-year data from 1999-2000 to 2024-25 (related blog 08Mar2020 and another 10Nov2023):

RBI earned a return of 5.31 per cent on its foreign currency assets for the FY 2024-25, versus 4.21 per cent for FY 2023-24. This is the highest rate of earnings in the past 24 years.

Two charts showing the data >

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Update 01Jun2025: Chart 77:

India current account deficit (CAD) : During FY 2024-25, India's CAD rose to 1.3 per cent of GDP or gross domestic product from 0.7 per cent of GDP in FY 2023-24, as per latest RBI Annual Report for FY 2024-25 released on 29May2025.

From India's external vulnerability point of view, a current account deficit of up to 2 per cent is considered as sustainable. Anything above 2 per cent is likely to make India vulnerable to external shocks.

As such, the CAD of 1.3 per cent of GDP in FY 2024-25 is not a worrying point. To support India's growth, the country needs at least a minimum CAD of 2 per cent.

As can be seen from data below, during 2011-12 and 2013-14, India experienced high unsustainable CAD of more than 4 per cent which led to forex crisis (severe weakness in rupee exchange rate) in 2011-12 and 2012-13.

16-year CAD data from 2009-10 to 2024-25 >

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Update 05May2025: Charts 74 to 76:

RBI Gold Holdings and Forex Reserves as at the end of Mar2025: RBI gold reserves are part of India's forex reserves maintained by RBI on behalf of Government of India (for more on RBI gold holdings, see blog dated 07Mar2022).

Gold holdings of Reserve Bank of India increased from 854.7 metric tonnes in Sep2024 to 879.6 metric tonnes in Mar2025, an increase of almost 3 per cent in the past six months. The data are as per RBI's Half yearly report on management of foreign exchange reserves released today.

The amount of gold holding (in US dollar terms) as a percentage of total forex reserves of India is 11.7 per cent as of Mar2025; this is the highest percentage of gold holdings in the past 16 years. In fact, for the first time, gold holdings in USD terms have surpassed 10 per cent of total forex reserves.

The previous high was 9.3 per cent as of Sep2024.

The value of RBI's gold holdings is USD 78.2 billion out of the total forex reserves of USD 668.3 billion as of Mar2025.

India gold reserves - physical gold as on 31Mar2025:

Of the 879.6 metric tonnes of RBI gold reserves as of Mar2025, 512 metric tonnes is held in Indian vaults, 348.6 metric tonnes is held abroad (in the safe custody of Bank of England and BIS or the Bank for International Settlements), and 19 metric tonnes is held as gold deposits.

India gold reserves - physical gold as on 31Mar2025:

As the below chart shows, gold reserves held in India increased from 510.5 metric tonnes in Sep2024 to 512 metric tonnes in Mar2025 -- a small increase of just 1.5 metric tonnes in the past six months.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Feb.2022 and subsequent economic sanctions on Russia and the illegal impounding of Russia's forex reserves by the West, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India seemed to have taken a conscious decision to bring back physical gold reserves held abroad (with BoE and BIS) to Indian vaults.

As such, we are seeing increase in physical gold held domestically by RBI.

Total percentage of gold held by RBI domestically is now at 58.2 per cent of the total gold reserves -- this is close to the highest percentage in the past 15 years. As of Mar.2010, 52.4 per cent of the gold was held domestically.

Between Sep2024 and Mar2025, RBI bought 24.9 metric tonnes of gold; but the majority of gold bought in this period of six months is kept abroad in the safe custody of Bank of England and BIS.

As can be observed from the chart given below, RBI holding of physical gold held abroad increased from 324 metric tonnes as of Sep2024 to 348.6 metric tonnes as of Mar2025.

It may be recalled between Mar2022 and Sep2024, a total amount of 120.3 metric tonnes is brought from abroad to India by RBI, as the below data show.

The behaviour of RBI between Sep2024 and Mar2025 (wrt bringing gold held abroad to Indian vaults) is significantly different from its behaviour between Mar2022 and Sep2024.

As mentioned above, RBI kept most of the gold bought between Sep2004 and Mar2025 held abroad with BoE / BIS.

This marks a sharp departure from the RBI's previous actions.

Interestingly, those jingoists who loudly celebrated the RBI's repatriation of physical gold from abroad (from the Bank of England and BIS) to Indian vaults are now conspicuously silent. 😆

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Update 27Apr2025: Chart 73:

US Federal Funds Rate Cycles Since 1999 to Now : (old blog dated 25Feb2023):

The below chart shows the following:

> US Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT) (for other charts, see Update 28Dec2024 with old charts 42 to 44)

The current downward interest rate cycle in the US started in Sep2024 and is continuing now; and it's expected to continue at least for another six to nine months, subject to incoming data. In the current down cycle, the US Fed has decreased the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points so far.

However, Trump's tariffs have complicated the Federal Reserve's efforts to steer US PCE inflation back toward its long-term 2 per cent target. Growing speculation suggests the Fed may be compelled to cut the fed funds rate more aggressively than previously expected.

Adding to market chatter is the possibility that the Fed could halt its ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) and even pivot back to a new phase of quantitative easing (QE).

The large-scale and sweeping reciprocal tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 02Apr2025 are expected to create supply chain disruption leading to higher consumer prices in the US jeopardising Fed's efforts to tame inflation.

The quantitative tightening cycle started in Apr2022 and is continuing now. During the period, the US Fed's balance sheet size decreased from USD 8,965 billion to USD 6,725 billion, a decrease of more than USD 2,200 billion or 25 per cent decline.

However, from the start of QE in Sep2008, the US Fed's balance sheet has grown from USD 905 billion to USD 6,727 billion now -- an increase of 643 per cent in almost 17 years.

Data: St Louis Fed Economic Data on Fed Balance Sheet size

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Update 13Apr2025: Chart 72:

FPI Flows to India, changes in US dollar index (DXY) and US Treasury yields and their impact on BSE 200 index:

Large FPI outflows from Indian stock market depend on a number of factors:

This is a financial world where everything affects everything else.

- FPIs moving money out of India can't be attributed to a single factor; there could be a cluster of variables

- relative attractiveness of other financial markets, like, US bonds / stocks and stocks / bonds in China and Europe or commodities like gold or crypto currencies

- sometimes Indian stocks can be expensive, FPI may pull out money from India to invest in other jurisdictions

- Indian rupee depreciation / appreciation versus the US dollar too may impact FPI flows; dollar-rupee exchange rate in turn is influenced by the movements in US dollar index (DXY) and interest rate differentials between the two nations

-after the retirement of Shaktikantha Das as Reserve Bank of India governor, rupee fall has accelerated versus the US dollar

- between Nov2024 and now, financial markets are expecting policy measures, from Trump administration, that will be positive for US stocks (this is called Trump trade in market parlance)

- some of the FPI outflows from Indian stocks can be attributed to this

(In April 2025, the US stocks too sold off in a big way due to Trump reciprocal tariffs)

- at the end of Sep2024, Indian stocks appeared to be overvalued, this could be one of the reasons for massive FPI outflows

- even there are conerns about consumption slowdown in India leading to FPI outflows

-India's real GDP for Oct-Dec2024 quarter is much lower than expected

-the US Treasury bond yields have hardened since end of Sep2024; making US bonds more attractive for FPIs

- lack of public sector capex by PM Modi government since Apr2024 has affected market sentiment in India

- threat of Trump tariffs including reciprocal tariffs has damaged market sentiment towards risky assets in general

- yield spread between the US Treasuries and Indian government bonds and US-India interest rate differentials may influence the behaviour of FPIs towards Indian assets

Even though markets are impacted by a confluence of factors all the time, market pundits tend to focus only on one or two things that are current hot topics and build a narrative around those one or two factors.

As mentioned earlier, this is a world where everything is affected by everything else.

Are FPI equity inflows and outflows related to India impacted by changes in the US dollar index and US bond yields?

Several money managers in India, especially during Jan-Mar2025 quarter, were of the opinion that rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar were causing FPI outflows from the Indian stocks:

To assess whether this claim bears any truth, I tried to examine the data of FPI flows, BSE 200 level, US bond yields and the US dollar index (DXY or USDX is a measure of value of the US dollar relative to six other major currencies, namely, Euro, Pound sterling, Japanese Yen, Canadian dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc).

See the data presented below.

The data are for 22 quarters between Oct2019 and Mar2025. The data points are: quarterly net FPI flows to Indian stock market, quarter-end level of US 10-year Treasury yield, quarter-end dollar-rupee exchange rate, quarter-end BSE 200 level and its quarterly gain or loss. The data show a mixed picture.

Between the end of Dec2020 and Mar2021, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose from 0.92 to 1.75 per cent while the DXY rose from 89.9 to 93.2 -- this has not impacted the level of BSE 200 index in Jan-Mar2021 quarter, in which BSE 200 delivered a return of 6.5 per cent and FPI inflows were Rs 55,742 crore.

Let us consider another quarter, Jul-Sep2023, in which BSE 200 index rose by 4.1 per cent and FPI inflows were Rs 44,112 crore; while the DXY increased from 102.9 to 106.2 and the US 10-year bond yield surged from 3.8 per cent to 4.6 per cent.

Now, look at the data for Jan-Mar2022 in which there were FPI outflows to the tune of Rs 110,018 crore, but the BSE 200 barely moved. And in the same quarter, DXY rose from 95.7 to 98.4 and the 10-year bond yield rose from 1.51 to 2.35 per cent.

Apr-Jun2022 quarter: FPI outflows were Rs 107,340 crore and BSE 200 fell by 9.7 per cent -- here, FPI flows were negatively impacted by rise of DXY (moved sharply from 98.4 to 104.8) while the US 10-year Treasury yield spiked from 2.35 to 3.02 per cent.

Same is the case in Oct-Dec2024 quarter. As the DXY rose suddenly from 100.8 to 108.5 and 10-year yield rose from 3.77 to 4.57 per cent, the BSE 200 fell by 8.4 per cent with FPI outflows amounting to Rs 100,183 crore in the same period.

To sum up: For two quarters, Jan-Mar2021 and Jul-Sep2023, the rise of DXY and US 10-year yield had no negative impact (in fact, flows were positive and BSE 200 experienced positive returns) on FPI flows into Indian equities.

And for two quarters, Apr-Jun2022 and Oct-Dec2024 quarter, the sharp rise in DXY and US 10-year bond yield had coincided with the fall in BSE 200 levels and outflows by FPIs from Indian stock market.

As stated earlier, a variety of factors influence financial markets, including market sentiment and technological progress. It's disingenuous on the part of market experts to attribute market fall or rise to one or two variables.

There is no point in cherry picking data and build false narrative around market events.

Readers can observe these data points for other quarters and make their own conclusions. One thing is certain: In the past four to five years, foreign investors have not been enthused about investing in India. They have shown interest neither in FDI route (foreign direct investment) nor FPI route. In fact,

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Update 13Apr2025: Charts 69 to 71:

FPI Flows to India : Foreign Portfolio flows: 15-year data from 2010 to 2014 financial-year wise: FPI flows in both equity and debt segments (old blog 10Jul2022) >

The data include financial-year wise data, quarterly data and monthly data. The data are as per NSDL FPI monitor.

The data include Sensex and BSE 200 levels as at the end of the respective quarter / month -- which will enable the readers to discern the impact of FPI outflows / inflows on the Indian stock market.

During FY 2024-25, FPI flows to India in the equity segment are negative with outflows Rs 1.27 lakh crore; while debt flows are positive with Rs 1.47 lakh crore inflow in the same period -- the net FPI inflow being Rs 0.20 lakh crore.

The relentless selling of FPIs in the equity segment in the past six months (Oct2024 to Mar2025) has caused Indian stocks to fall significantly.

While the indices don't tell the full story of virtually a bear market in Indian stocks, the internals of the Nifty indices reveal a bleak picture of the stock market.

While the Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50 and Nifty Midsmallcap 400 fell by 10.5 per cent, 19.1 per cent and 16.5 per cent respectively from their 52-week highs; more than 18 per cent, 34 per cent and 54 per cent of the stocks respectively in these indices have lost more than 30 per cent of their values from their respective 52-week highs.

The quarterly outflow of Rs 116,574 crore in Jan-Mar2025 quarter (versus Rs 100,183 crore outflow in Oct-Dec2024 quarter) is one of the highest FPI outflows in Indian stock market in recent years.

Though domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail investors have remained as a counterweight to FPI outflows in the past eight years, the exodus of FPIs in the past six months has a negative bearing on Indian stocks.

Till Sep2024, it was argued FPI inflows and outflows didn't matter for Indian markets as retail investors and mutual funds were continuously buying Indian stocks. But in the past six months, the narrative has changed -- no market pundit now talks about the irrelevance of FPI investors to Indian stock market.

Apr2025 data (till 11Apr2025): The frenzied selling of FPIs is continued in April also, with FPIs selling Rs 0.32 lakh crore in the equity segment. Surprisingly, they turned negative on the debt side also with selling of Rs 0.17 lakh crore so far this month.

Long-term data:

Let us see how FPI flows stack up on a long term basis. Total FPI flows (equity segment) in the past three-, five- and 10-year are positive at Rs 0.44 lakh crore, Rs 1.78 lakh crore and Rs 2.51 lakh crore respectively.

Total FPI flows (debt segment) in the past three-, five- and 10-year are positive at Rs 2.75 lakh crore, Rs 2.85 lakh crore and Rs 3.21 lakh crore respectively. Debt market has done much better than equity segment. However, it may be added these numbers are a pittance if you compare the size of FPI flows running into billions of dollars globally.

Comparison between Mar2020 (COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak) and Oct2024-Mar2025 period:

FPI equity assets as at end-Feb2020 were Rs 28.87 lakh crore or USD 399.63 billion (USD INR 72.24 as 28Feb2020).

FPI equity outflows in Mar2020 were Rs 61,973 crore or USD 8.2 billion (USD INR 75.60 as on 31Mar2020).

So, FPI equity outflows in Mar2020 were 2.15 per cent of total FPI equity assets (FPI AUC) as at the end of Feb.2020.

FPI equity assets as at end-Sep2024 are Rs 77.87 lakh crore or USD 929.35 billion (USD INR 83.79 as 30Sep2024).

FPI equity outflows in Oct2024-Mar2025 period (six months) are Rs 216,757 crore (FPI NSDL data) or USD 25.3 billion.

So, FPI equity outflows in Oct2024-Mar2025 period are 2.78 per cent of total FPI equity assets (FPI AUC) as at the end of Sep2024.

So, the FPI selling in the last six months is much higher compared to their selling in COVID-19 period (one month data). The scale of FPI selling is staggering by any standards.

Three charts showing financial-year wise, quarterly and monthly data of FPI flows to India:

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Update 13Apr2025: Charts 66 to 68:

FPI AUC data: FPI / FII AUC data: Assets under custody (AUC) data of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs):

(for old data > Old blog dated 10Jul2022 - Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors; and old blog dated 28Apr2022 - Foreigners' Shrinking Pie in Indian Equities)

FPI equity assets, as on 31Mar2025, are Rs 66.79 lakh crore, showing an annual growth (year-on-year) of 4.1 per cent in rupee terms. While in dollar terms they are at USD 779 billion, with a yearly growth of 1.3 per cent.

In the same period, BSE market cap rose by 6.7 per cent to Rs 412.88 lakh crore, with Nifty 50 growing by 5.3 per cent and BSE 200 by 5.0 per cent. The BSE market cap growth is slightly higher compared to rise of BSE 200, as there have been a number of new listings (initial public offers or IPOs) and follow on public offers (FPOs) in 2024.

Equity AUC assets held by FPIs are just 16.2 per cent of total market cap of all BSE listed firms as of 31Mar2025. The percentage of equity assets held by FPIs is slightly higher compared to 16.1 per cent as at the end of 31Dec2024.

FPI investors have been losing interest considerably in Indian stocks in the past four years -- their share has come down from almost 20 per cent in Mar2021 to 16 per cent in Mar2025; domestic investors' share has been rising gradually during the period.

Especially in the past six months (Oct2024 to Mar2025), FPI outflows from equity market has been more pronounced due to a variety of factors attributed often to -- high valuation of Indian stocks, growth tapering in India, relative attractiveness of assets in the US and China compared to India and others.

Total assets (including equity and debt) in India held by FPIs are way below USD 1 trillion achieved as of 30Sep2024.

The following charts provide data of equity AUC and debt AUC from Mar2017 till Mar2025.

During FY 2024-25, the growth in equity AUC held by FPIs is much lower at 4.1 per cent (in rupee terms) compared to the growth of 28.5 per cent in debt AUC -- this is due to huge FPI inflows into debt segment in 2024 as India government bonds were included in JP Morgan and Bloomberg emerging market indices in Sep2023 and Mar2024 respectively.

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Update 01Apr2025: Chart 65:

Global market data: Global market data pertaining to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies are presented here (old blog dated 29Jun2024).

Quarter-to-date (QTD) global market data, as on 31st of March, 2025, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows - QTD is same as year-to-date (YTD)

During Jan-Mar2025 quarter, Indian large-cap indices, Dow Jones and Shanghai Composite were flat though they were volatile in between. Nikkei 225, Nasdaq Composite and BSE Midcap were the biggest losers in the quarter.

European stocks, in particular Germany stocks, have generally been stronger during the quarter due to optimism about military spending and some index stocks doing well -- this is in the backdrop of US stocks struggling.

Bond yields in the US and India are down; while the US - India 10-year bond yield spread widened by 19 basis points (100 basis points equal one percent) during the quarter.

Along with the US tech stocks (part of Nasdaq), Bitcoin suffered during the quarter with a drop of about 12% with huge volatility -- for the time being Bitcoin and US tech stocks seem to be moving in tango. Changes in global risk-on and risk-off sentiment are reflected both in Bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) as well as the US tech stocks.

The US dollar index (DXY or USDX) lost 4 per cent of its value with the US dollar losing versus pound sterling, Japanese Yen and Euro. Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee are flat versus the USD.

The biggest stars, during the first quarter of 2025, are gold and silver, which are up by 18.6 and 16.5 per cent respectively. This is against the backdrop of heightened global uncertainty following Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and various countries and a variety of goods.

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Update 30Mar2025: Charts 63 and 64:

Dollar-Rupee exchange rate: Financial year-wise and calendar year-wise data of the US dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate for the past 26 years (old blog dated 03Jun2024 on Why RBI Won't Favour a Strong Rupee and old blog dated 01Jun2024 on how to calculate currency depreciation and appreciation) >

Exhibit 3: Financial year-wise: Dollar gain versus Rupee: Data include not only year-wise changes but also 5-year change (annualised). For example, between end-Mar2020 and end-Mar2025, the USD appreciated by 2.6 per cent annualised rate. And between end-Mar2011 and end-Mar2016, the annualised USD appreciation vs INR was much higher at 8.2 per cent.

For the past 25 years, USD has gained by an annualised 2.74 per cent versus INR.

Data range for FY-wise yearly change for the past 26 years is: minus 11.4 per cent to plus 27.5 per cent. The data range is so wide one can't even predict / forecast the yearly changes in USD-INR exchange rate.

Of the 26 financial years for which data are presented here, Govt of India and Reserve Bank of India allowed the rupee to appreciate against the dollar only on eight occasions.

Exhibit 4: Calendar year-wise: Dollar gain versus Rupee: Data include not only year-wise changes but also 5-year change (annualised). For example, between end-Dec2016 and end-Dec2021, the annualised appreciation for USD vs INR is only 1.8 per cent; whereas between end-Dec2007 and end-Dec2012, it was 6.8 per cent annualised.

For the past 25 years, the USD has appreciated versus INR at an annualised rate of 2.74 per cent.

Data range for CY-wise yearly change for the past 26 years is: minus 1o.9 per cent to plus 22.9 per cent. The data range is so wide one can't even predict / forecast the yearly changes in USD-INR exchange rate.

Of the 26 calendar years for which data are presented here, Govt of India and Reserve Bank of India allowed the rupee to appreciate against the dollar only on eight occasions.

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Update 03Mar2025: Chart 62:

FPI Flows to India : Foreign Portfolio flows: (old blog 10Jul2022) >

The data include monthly data. The data are as per NSDL FPI monitor.

The data include Sensex and BSE 200 levels as at the end of the respective month -- which will enable the readers to discern the impact of FPI outflows / inflows on the Indian stock market.

FPIs continue to sell Indian stocks heavily in the first two months of 2025, with total net outflows in these two months amounting to nearly Rs 1.13 lakh crore.

FPI net outflows for the past 3 months, 6 months and 12 months are Rs 0.97 lakh crore, 1.55 lakh crore and Rs 0.88 lakh crore respectively.

The total FPI outflows from the Indian equity market in the past five months (Oct2024-Feb2025) are Rs 2.13 lakh crore, which is the worst since FPIs entry into India in 1992.

The strong outflows have resulted in one of the worst drawdowns in India's stock market history.

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Update 02Mar2025: Charts 60 and 61:

US Dollar Sale and Purchase by Reserve Bank of India: (old blog dated 05Aug2021 with monthly and yearly data for several years)

Two charts showing monthly and quarterly data of USD sales and purchases by RBI >

Between Oct2024 and Dec2024, RBI has been net seller in all the three months, with total sale amounting to USD 44.7 billion. Net sales in the past six months amount to USD 34.6 billion and for the past one year, net sales were USD 12.4 billion.

The Indian rupee, versus US dollar, has been under pressure in the past five months or so. The rupee depreciated, versus the USD, from 83.80 in Sep2024 to 87.40 now, showing a depreciation of more than 4 per cent.

Between end-Sep2024 and end-Dec2024, RBI net sold US dollars worth USD 44.7 billion in order to defend the exchange rate (India's central bank, RBI, publishes US dollar sale / purchase figures with a lag of two months).

Despite the strong defence of rupee by RBI through forex intervention, the rupee continued its sharp fall versus the dollar.

The heavy dollar sale has resulted in sharp depletion of India's forex reserves, showing a decrease of USD 65 billion in the past five months. Forex reserves are now USD 640 billion (they were USD 705 billion at the end of Sep2024).

A combination of global and domestic factors have negatively impacted rupee. Possible reasons for the sudden loss in rupee exchange rate are:

1) the US dollar has been appreciating versus major currencies due to a combination of tariffs imposed / threatened by newly-elected president Donald Trump on various countries, such as, Mexico, Canada and China

2) Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have resorted to unprecedented selling in the past five months -- with net FPI outflows of around Rs 2.10 lakh crore in the equity segment (they were net buyers in the debt segment with nearly Rs 20,000 crore)

3) Foreign investors seem to have found the US, China and other stock markets more attractive compared to Indian stocks. There were concerns about high market valuation of Indian stocks throughout the calendar year 2024 -- though the valuation concerns have dwindled in the Feb2025, with Nifty 50 and Sensex having lost around 14 per cent since the highs of Sep2024.

4) Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into India have declined precipitously in the past one year

5) Indian economic growth rate has slumped in the Jul-Sep2024 and Oct-Dec2024 quarters

6) India's export growth has been weak recently

USD sales and purchase by RBI > monthly data from Dec2022 to Dec2024; and quarterly data from Oct2019 to Dec2024 >

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Update 29Jan2025: Charts 58 to 59:

RBI USD-INR Forex Swaps: Details of RBI USD-INR Buy/Sell and Sell/Buy swaps (old blog dated 22Feb2022 and old Tweet thread dated 22Feb2022)

Reserve Bank of India on 27Jan2025 announced it would conduct a USD-INR buy/sell swap auction and the full details of which were announced on 28Jan2025. On 31Jan2025, RBI would conduct a buy/sell forex swap for USD 5 billion -- the stated purpose for the buy/sell swap is to inject liquidity into the banking system.

This is the not the first time a forex swap is conducted by RBI. It has been conducting them since Mar2019. And the current auction is seventh such one.

Central banks the world over use forex swaps for a variety of reasons, including liquidity management in their domestic markets.

India's central bank, RBI, started using forex swaps as a liquidity management tool, whereby it buys US dollar from banks giving rupee funds to banks in exchange on the date when the swap was initiated. And on the maturity date, RBI will sell US dollar to banks receiving rupee funds from banks in return--thus completing the swap. For more details, see my earlier blog.

The following two charts provide details of difference between a buy/sell and sell/buy forex swap and the seven forex swaps conducted by RBI between 2019 and now.

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Update 16Jan2025: Charts 55 to 57:

FPI AUC data: FPI / FII AUC data: Assets under custody (AUC) data of foreign portfolio investors category-wise:

(for old data > Old blog dated 10Jul2022 - Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors; and old blog dated 28Apr2022 - Foreigners' Shrinking Pie in Indian Equities)

FPI equity assets, as on 31Dec2024, are Rs 71.18 lakh crore, showing an annual growth of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms. While in dollar terms they are at USD 831 billion, with a yearly growth of 12.8 per cent.

In the same period, BSE market cap rose by 21.3 per cent to Rs 441.95 lakh crore, with Nifty 50 growing by 8.8 per cent and BSE 200 by 13.4 per cent. The BSE market cap growth is much higher compared to rise of BSE 200, as there have been a number of new listings (initial public offers or IPOs) and follow on public offers (FPOs) in 2024.

Equity AUC assets held by FPIs are just 16.1 per cent of total market cap of all BSE listed firms as of 31Dec2024.

FPI investors have been losing interest considerably in Indian stocks in the past four years -- their share has come down from almost 20 per cent in Mar2021 to 16 per cent in Dec2024; domestic investors' share has been rising gradually during the period.

Total assets (including equity and debt) in India held by FPIs have slipped below USD 1 trillion during the Oct-Dec2024 quarter; they are a little above USD 900 billion as of 31Dec2024.

The following charts provide data of equity AUC and debt AUC from Mar2017 till Dec2024.

During 2024, the growth in equity AUC held by FPIs is much lower (FPI inflows to equity market are practically nil) at 16.1 per cent (in rupee terms) compared to the growth of 35 per cent in debt AUC -- this is due to huge FPI inflows into debt segment in 2024 as India government bonds were included in JP Morgan and Bloomberg emerging market indices in Sep2023 and Mar2024 respectively.

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Update 14Jan2025: Charts 51 and 54:

FPI Flows to India : Foreign Portfolio flows: 15-year data from 2010 to 2014 both calendar- and financial-year wise: FPI flows in both equity and debt segments (old blog 10Jul2022) >

The data include financial-year wise data, quarterly data and monthly data. The data are as per NSDL FPI monitor.

The data include Sensex and BSE 200 levels as at the end of the respective quarter / month -- which will enable the readers to discern the impact of FPI outflows / inflows on the Indian stock market.

FPI flows to India in the equity segment have been barely positive at Rs 427 crore in calendar year 2024; while debt flows are positive with Rs 1.65 lakh crore inflow in the same period.

The quarterly outflow of Rs 100,813 crore in Oct-Dec2024 is one of the highest FPI outflows in Indian stock market in recent years. Though domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail investors have remained as a counterweight to FPI outflows in the past eight years, the exodus of FPIs in the past three months has a negative bearing on Indian stocks.

As the FPI outflow of more than Rs 1 lakh crore in Oct-Dec2024 quarter is large in a short period of time, the Sensex lost 7.3 per cent of its value during the quarter.

Bond inclusion: One redeeming feature of FPI flows has been the positive inflow of Rs 1.65 lakh crore in the debt segment. After the announcement of JP Morgan including India government bonds in their EM indices in Sep2023 and the inclusion Indian government bonds in Bloomberg EM indices in Mar2024, FPI flows to Indian bond market have accelerated. Overall, this is a positive development for foreign portfolio flows to India.

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Update 10Jan2025: Chart 50:

MSCI EM Index - China and India weights: Quarterly changes between Sep2024 and Dec2024: (for old data, see old blogs dated 07Jan2023 and blog 03Aug2021)

India's rank in the MSCI EM Index has slipped from second in Sep2024 to third rank in Dec2024. Taiwan regained second rank in Dec2024.

Taiwan's ranking has gone up due to rise in the stock price of semiconductor giant TSMC.

As of Dec2024, India's weight is 19.43 per cent in third place; while China maintains its first rank with 27.79 per cent weight. In the last three months, Saudi Arabia has gained fifth rank, for the first time, dethroning Brazil.

In Jul2024, India's weight was above 20 per cent -- but as of Dec2024, its weight has slightly decreased; as China's weight increased to 27.79 per cent from its recent low of 24.54 per cent (31Jul2024).

The chart below looks at the past five quarters data, with valuation ratios, top five countries and top five companies.

Four Indian companies are in the top 10 of the list.

For raw data, please check tweet 10Jan2025.

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Update 04Jan2025: Charts 47 to 49:

Global market data: Global market data pertaining to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies are presented here. The data points are yearly changes and compounded returns from 2013 to 2023, indicating how the values have moved over the years. (old blog dated 12Jan2024 - global market data 2013 to 2023).

The stock market data presented in the table are price returns (not including dividends) and they are in local currency terms.

Three charts here:

> Yearly changes from 2014 to 2024

> Compounded annual returns for 3-year, 5-y, 7-y and 10-y periods as at the end of 31Dec2024

> divergence between the US and India 10-year bond yields in the past 12 years

You can find out how the assets classes and currencies have moved over the years. These charts reveal the cyclical nature of the returns in global financial markets.

Over the past 12 calendar years, the movements of the US 10-year Treasury note yield and India’s 10-year G-Sec yield have shown significant divergence:

Simultaneous Increases: The yields for both countries rose together, albeit by differing amounts (in basis points), on four occasions: in 2013, 2018, 2021, and 2022.

Simultaneous Decreases: Similarly, both yields declined in tandem—though with different changes in basis points—on four occasions: in 2014, 2019, 2020, and 2023.

Divergent Movements: In four other years (2015, 2016, 2017, and 2024), the yield changes were divergent: when US yields rose, Indian yields fell, and vice versa.

This analysis suggests that the yields in the US and India do not always move in the same direction in any given year. The divergence is largely influenced by varying inflation differentials, interest rate policies, monetary strategies, and economic growth rates between the two countries, which often lead to distinct yield movements.

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Update 01Jan2025: Charts 45 and 46:

Global market data: Global market data pertaining to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies are presented here (old blog dated 29Jun2024).

Quarter-to-date (QTD) global market data, as on 31st of December, 2024, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows - also included is year-to-data (YTD) between Dec2023 and Dec2024:

During Oct-Dec2024 quarter, Indian stocks have been weak due to a variety of concerns (high valuation, weak consumption, FPI selling, regulation and others), while the Japanese, German and US stocks held well.

There is a big jump in US yields though the US Fed cut rates by 100 basis points. But Indian yields have remained the same during the quarter.

Bitcoin is the biggest gainer in the quarter (especially after Trump's victory in US presidential polls) with 47% rise. Silver is weak with 7% fall while gold held steady. Crude oil prices have increased by around 5%.

The US dollar index has recorded one of its biggest quarterly gains with 7.6% rise, with JPY, EUR and GBP losing heavily. Even the Chinese yuan is weak against the dollar.

In calendar year 2024, the biggest gainer is Bitcoin with a gain of more than 120%. Indian stocks are relatively subdued compared to US (led by Magnificent 7 and other tech stocks), German, Hong Kong and Japanese stocks. Mid- and small-cap stocks have done well for Indians. The US yields are up, while Indian bond yields are down.

YTD, gold and silver have given decent returns, while oil prices remained subdued. The DXY (US dollar index) rose by 7% as Japanese yen and GBP remained weak throughout the year.

(please click on the images to view better)

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Update 28Dec2024: Charts 42 to 44:

US Federal Funds Rate Cycles Since 1999 to Now : (old blog dated 25Feb2023):

These three charts show the following:

> US Federal Funds Rate Cycles Since 1999 to Now

> US Fed's Four Interest Rate Hike Cycles Since 1999

> US Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT)

The current downward interest rate cycle in the US started in Sep2024 and is continuing now; and it's expected to continue at least till the middle of 2025, subject to incoming data. In the current down cycle, the US Fed has decreased the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points so far.

There have be four interest rate hike cycles since 1999 till now.

The quantitative tightening cycle started in Apr2022 and is continuing now. During the period, the US Fed's balance sheet size decreased from USD 8,965 billion to USD 6,886 billion, a decrease of more than USD 2,000 billion or 23 per cent decline.

However, from the start of QE in Sep2008, the US Fed's balance sheet has grown from USD 905 billion to USD 6,886 billion now -- an increase of 660 per cent in 16 years.

Data: St Louis Fed Economic Data on Fed Balance Sheet size

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Update 19Dec2024: Chart 41:

US Dollar Sale and Purchase by Reserve Bank of India: (old blog dated 05Aug2021 with monthly and yearly data for several years)

Between Mar2024 and Sep2024, RBI has alternated between selling US dollars in one month and purchasing them in the next, as part of its intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Net purchase of USD by RBI in FY 2024-25 amounts to USD 8.55 billion.

USD sales and purchase by RBI > data from Sep2022 to Sep2024 >

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Update 19Dec2024: Charts 39 and 40:

US Federal Reserve Funds Rate: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its meeting on 18Dec2024 reduced federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.50 per cent.

The rate increase cycle began in Mar2022 and the last hike was in Jul2023. We can say the immediate past rate hike cycle lasted from Mar2022 till Sep2024 -- a period of two years and a half.

Fed Funds rate from Dec2022 till now (for old data see charts below and see here) >

Calendar-year wise Fed Funds rate changes from 2003 to 2024 >

In calendar year 2024, the US Fed decreased the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points; whereas in 2023 and 2022, it was increased by 100 and 425 basis points respectively.

Interestingly, the current Fed funds rate is the same as it was at the end of 2022.

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Update 10Nov2024: Chart 38:

FPI flows to India: Foreign Portfolio Investments (equity only): Monthly data of FPI equity flows till Oct2024:

Year to date (till Oct2024), FPI flows into Indian equity markets have been positive at Rs 6,593 crore.

But the month of Oct2024 has witnessed one of the heaviest selling by FPIs or foreign portfolio investors -- in this month, they sold Indian stocks worth Rs 94,000 crore. The relentless selling by FPIs continues in November 2024 (till 8th) also, with FPI selling amounting to Rs 20,000 crore.

Since the current bull market in Indian equity market since Apr2023, FPIs inflows into Indian stocks are Rs 2.04 lakh crore.

Comparison between Mar2020 (COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak) and Oct2024:

FPI equity assets as at end-Feb2020 were Rs 28.87 lakh crore or USD 399.63 billion (USD INR 72.24 as 28Feb2020).

FPI equity outflows in Mar2020 were Rs 61,973 crore or USD 8.2 billion (USD INR 75.60 as on 31Mar2020).

So, FPI equity outflows in Mar2020 were 2.15 per cent of total FPI equity assets (FPI AUC) as at the end of Feb.2020.

FPI equity assets as at end-Sep2024 are Rs 77.87 lakh crore or USD 929.35 billion (USD INR 83.79 as 30Sep2024).

FPI equity outflows in Oct2024 are Rs 94,017 crore (FPI NSDL data) or USD 11.18 billion.

So, FPI equity outflows in Oct2024 are just 1.21 per cent of total FPI equity assets (FPI AUC) as at the end of Sep2024.

Due to huge selling of Indian stocks by FPIs in Oct2024, their FPI equity assets as on 31Oct2024 decreased to Rs 71.08 lakh crore (or USD 845.41 billion at USD-INR of 84.08), a fall of 8.72 per cent in the month of Oct2024 alone.

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Update 10Nov2024: Chart 37:

US Federal Reserve Funds Rate: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its meeting on 07Nov2024 reduced federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50-4.75 per cent. This is a follow-up of the 50 basis points cut done by the Fed on 18Sep2024.

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Update 29Oct2024: Charts 34 to 36:

RBI Gold Holdings and Forex Reserves as at the end of Sep2024: Gold holdings of Reserve Bank of India increased from 822.1 metric tonnes in Mar2024 to 854.7 metric tonnes in Sep2024, an increase of almost 4 per cent in the past six months. The data are as per RBI's Half yearly report on management of foreign exchange reserves released today.

The amount of gold holding (in US dollar terms) as a percentage of total forex reserves of India is 9.3 per cent as of Sep2024; this is the highest percentage of gold holdings in the past 15 years.

The previous high was 9.2 per cent as of Mar.2012.

The value of RBI's gold holdings is USD 65.7 billion out of the total forex reserves of USD 705.8 billion as of Sep2024.

India gold reserves - physical gold as on 30Sep2024:

Of the 854.7 metric tonnes of RBI gold reserves as of Sep2024, 510.5 metric tonnes is held in Indian vaults, 324 metric tonnes is held abroad (in the safe custody of Bank of England and BIS or the Bank for International Settlements), and 20.3 metric tonnes is held as gold deposits.

India gold reserves - physical gold as on 30Sep2024:

As the below chart shows, gold reserves held in India increased from 408.3 metric tonnes in Mar2024 to 510.5 metric tonnes in Sep2024.

The increase of 102.2 metric tonnes held in India is due to a combination of new gold bought in the period and gold brought to India from the physical vaults of Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

As such, we are seeing increase in physical gold held domestically by RBI.

Total percentage of gold held by RBI domestically is now at 59.7 per cent of the total gold reserves -- this is the highest percentage in the past 15 years. As of Mar.2010, 52.4 per cent of the gold was held domestically.

Between Mar2024 and Sep2024, RBI brought an amount of 69.5 metric tonnes to Indian vaults from gold held abroad with BoE and BIS.

Between Mar2022 and Sep2024, a total amount of 120.3 metric tonnes is brought from abroad to India by RBI, as the below data show.

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Update 19Oct2024: Charts 30 to 33:

MSCI EM Index - China and India weights: (for old data, see old blogs dated 07Jan2023 and blog 03Aug2021)

India's rank in the MSCI EM Index has risen in recent years, a manifestation of India's importance in the global world.

As of Sep2024, India's weight is 19.52 per cent with second place; while China maintains its first rank with 27.81 per cent weight. In the last one month, the gap between China and India weightings has widened due to sharp uptick in Chinese stocks last month. Taiwan closely follows India.

In Jul2024, India's weight was above 20 per cent -- but as of Sep2024, its weight has decreased; as China's weight increased to 27.81 per cent from its recent low of 24.54 per cent (31Jul2024).

The chart below looks at the past five quarters data, with valuation ratios, top five countries and top five companies.

As of Sep2024, top five companies in the index are TSMC, Tencent, Samsung, Alibaba and Meituan. Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Infosys are among the top ten from India stable.

Significantly, HDFC Bank regained its position among the top ten.

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Update 18Oct2024: Charts 28 and 29:

FPI flows to India: Foreign Portfolio Investments (equity only): Monthly and quarterly data of FPI flows till Sep2024:

Year to date (till Sep2024), FPI flows into Indian equity markets have been positive at Rs 100,605 crore.

Since the current bull market in Indian equity market since Apr2023, FPIs inflows into Indian stocks are Rs 2.98 lakh crore.

However, in Oct2024 (till today), FPI equity outflows are Rs 77,701 crore as per NSDL FPI data.

Comparison between Mar2020 (COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak) and Oct2024:

FPI equity assets as at end-Feb2020 were Rs 28.87 lakh crore or USD 399.63 billion (USD INR 72.24 as 28Feb2020).

FPI equity outflows in Mar2020 were Rs 61,973 crore or USD 8.2 billion (USD INR 75.60 as on 31Mar2020).

So, FPI equity outflows in Mar2020 were 2.15 per cent of total FPI equity assets (AUC) as at the end of Feb.2020.

FPI equity assets as at end-Sep2024 are Rs 77.87 lakh crore or USD 929.35 billion (USD INR 83.79 as 30Sep2024).

FPI equity outflows in Oct2024 (till today) are Rs 77,701 crore (FPI NSDL data) or USD 9.24 billion.

So, FPI equity outflows in Oct2024 (till today) are just 1 per cent of total FPI equity assets (AUC) as at the end of Sep2024.

Quarterly data: Since Jan2020, FPI equity inflows into Indian equity markets are Rs 3.46 lakh crore.

During Jul-Sep2024 quarterly, FPI inflows are Rs 97,405 crore, which is the highest in a quarter since Apr-Jun2023 quarter.

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Update 01Oct2024: Charts 25 to 27:

FPI AUC data: FPI / FII AUC data: Assets under custody (AUC) data of foreign portfolio investors category-wise:

(for old data > Old blog dated 10Jul2022 - Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors; and old blog dated 28Apr2022 - Foreigners' Shrinking Pie in Indian Equities)

FPI equity assets, as on 30Sep2024, are Rs 77.87 lakh crore, showing an annual growth of 44 per cent in rupee terms. While in dollar terms they are at USD 930 billion, with a yearly growth of 42.6 per cent.

In the same period, BSE market cap rose by 48.7 per cent to Rs 474.35 lakh crore, with Nifty 50 growing by 31.4 per cent and BSE 200 by 38.5 per cent.

Equity AUC assets held by FPIs are just 16.4 per cent of total market cap of all BSE listed firms as of 30Sep2024.

Total assets (including equity and debt) in India held by FPIs have surpassed USD 1 trillion for the first time.

Between Mar2017 and Sep2024, equity assets held by FPIs have decreased from 19.5 per cent to 16.4 per cent of the total market capitalisation of all BSE listed firms. BSE Limited is one of the top two stock exchanges in India.

Chart given below shows yearly data from Mar2017, including USD INR exchange rate for comparison / contextual purposes.

Between Mar2017 and Sep2024, debt assets held by FPIs have increased from Rs 3.35 lakh crore to Rs 6.32 lakh crore.

Debt AUC data include data of debt VRR, debt FAR and hybrid; but does not include data of mutual funds and AIFs (alternative investment funds).

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Update 01Oct2024: Charts 23 and 24:

Global market data: Global market data pertaining to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies are presented here (old blog dated 29Jun2024).

Quarter-to-date (QTD) global market data, as on 30 September 2024, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows - also included is year-to-data (YTD) between Dec2023 and Sep2024:

QTD: Among major stock indices, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices have done well with China providing a fiscal and monetary stimulus in the last one week; while Nikkei 225 provided negative returns negatively impacted by steep rise in yen versus the dollar.

The US 10-year Treasury yield is down a staggering 62 basis points during the quarter based on expectations of Fed funds rate cut. Due to Fed rate cut expectations and actual cut by the Fed, US dollar index is down by 4.8 per cent; with JPY and EUR rising strongly against the dollar. Gold too has done well with achieving record-breaking highs during the quarter.

YTD: Hang Seng and S&P 500 have done well year to date. The US 10-year Treasury note yield is down by a mere 10 basis points. Gold and silver have been the biggest surprise winners of the year. Bitcoin has gained a massive 50 per cent during the year so far.

The US dollar index barely moved, though GBP gained 5.5 per cent against the dollar.

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Update 19Sep2024: Chart 22:

US Federal Reserve Funds Rate: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its meeting on 18Sep2024 reduced federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75-5.00 per cent. This is the first rate cut since Mar2020.

The rate increase cycle began in Mar2022 and the last hike was in Jul2023. We can say the immediate past rate hike cycle lasted from Mar2022 till Sep2024 -- a period of two years and a half.

Fed Funds rate from Mar2020 till now (for old data, see here)

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Update 05Sep2024: Chart 21:

FPI flows to India: Foreign Portfolio Investments (equity only): Monthly data of FPI flows till Jun2024 quarter and Aug2024 month:

Year to date, FPI flows into Indian equity markets have been positive at Rs 42,900 crore.

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Update 02Aug2024: Charts 19 and 20:

FPI flows to India: Foreign Portfolio Investments (equity only): Quarterly and monthly data of FPI flows till Jun2024 quarter and Jul2024 month:

In the first seven months of 2024, FPI equity flows to India have been positive in four months and negative in three months -- with total FPI inflows from Jan2024 to Jul2024 amounting to Rs 35,600 crore.

In the past eight quarters (Jul2022-Jun2024), FPI equity flows have been positive in six quarters and negative in two quarters -- with total FPI inflows for those eight quarters amounting to Rs 2.70 lakh crore.

These monthly and quarterly charts will help you understand whether FPI equity inflows or outflows in a month have any relationship with the ups and downs of Indian equity markets.

A cursory glance at the data indicates the influence of FPIs has been slim to none on Indian stocks -- the markets are now dominated by inflows from domestic institutional investors (DIIs), high net worth individuals (HNIs) and retail investors.

(see Charts 10 and 11 added on 12Jun2024 for financial year-wise and calendar year-wise data)

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Update 01Aug2024: Chart 18:

US Federal Reserve Funds Rate: The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its meeting on 31Jul2024 decided to keep its federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50 per cent range (old blog dated 25Feb2023).

The US stock and bond markets reacted positively to the FOMC statement and post-policy press conference by Fed chair Jerome Powell. The comments are seen as dovish by the market. The S&P 500 closed at 5,520, up 1.6 per cent yesterday while Nasdaq Composite was at 17,600, up 2.6 per cent.

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.06 per cent, while the 2-year closed at 4.29 per cent, both closed lower reacting positively to the FOMC / post-policy press conference.

Fed Funds rate from Mar2020 till now (for old data, see here)

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Update 21Jul2024: Chart 17:

India's crude oil dependency: (blog dated 25Sep2023 with updates) India's crude oil import dependency was 87.4 per cent during FY 2023-24, as per latest data from PPAC, a Gov't of India body.

The ratio was much higher compared to 77.6 per cent during FY 2013-14. Energy security is a neglected baby in India.

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Update 24Jun2024: Chart 16:

Foreign Direct Investment flows : (old blog 25May2022) FDI Flows: A few months ago, net FDI to India in 2023-24 was reported as USD 10.6 billion -- but as per today's RBI data (the data here should be read in consonance with excel data in another RBI press release), it is only USD 9.8 billion, the lowest in more than a decade.

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to India in FY 2023-24 were just USD 9.8 billion, the lowest in 17 years.

All data on gross FDI flows, FDI repatriated, FDI to India, FDI by India and Net FDI to India >

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Update 24Jun2024: Chart 15:

India current account deficit (CAD) : During FY 2023-24, India's CAD fell sharply to 0.7 per cent of GDP from 2 per cent GDP in FY 2022-23, as per latest RBI data on Balance of Payments (BoP). (old blog 10Nov2023)

As such, the CAD of 0.7 per cent of GDP in FY 2023-24 is too low from India's economic growth perspective. To support India's growth, the country needs at least a minimum CAD of 2 per cent.

During 2020-21, India experienced, on an annual basis, current account surplus (0.9 per cent) for the first time since 2003-04. Due to draconian lockdowns following COVID-19 Pandemic, India suffered severe contraction (minus 5.8 per cent real GDP growth) in economic growth in 2020-21. And this led to huge fall in imports relative to exports -- ultimately resulting in current account surplus for the year.

15-year CAD data from 2009-10 to 2023-24 >

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Update 20Jun2024:

RBI Gold Holdings : What RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said during ET NOW Leadership Dialogues 2024 (video of 18Jun2024) on RBI bulking up on gold reserves (part of RBI forex reserves):

"We want to diversify the deployment of our forex reserves in more currencies and in different kind of assets, particularly gold. (portfolio diversification of India's forex reserves)

"Gold prices, in the long term, generally go up. So, gold is considered as a kind of permanent hedge against exterrnal uncertainities and challenges. We naturally buy gold whenever there is an opportune moment.

"Yes, building up gold reserves is a part of our reserve deployment and we will continue with that depending on the international prices."

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Update 20Jun2024:

RBI Gold Holdings : RBI Excerpts from the post-Monetary Policy press conference on 07Jun2024 (source: RBI's transcipt - video of the press conference):

Swati Bhat of Reuters asks:

"I just wanted to understand if there is a change in policy and is it because of the geopolitical tensions (and decognition of Russian reserves) that we are trying to keep more gold within India now?"

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das answers:

"You see, with regard to the movement of the gold. In fact, I am quite surprised that it is appearing in the media so late. We release half-yearly data of our gold reserves and that clearly says how much is held in India and how much is held outside India. I was expecting the media to pick up the end-September 2023 data. Nobody picked it up and we were really surprised. I was expecting the end-March 2024 data also to be picked up by the media and nobody noticed it. Basically, the quantum of gold held by the RBI outside the country was static for a long time. But in the recent years, the data shows that the Reserve Bank has been buying gold as a part of its reserves management, and the quantum held outside was going up. We have domestic capacity now, and we felt part of the gold should be stored within the country. That is it. Nothing more should be read into it."

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Update 15Jun2024: Chart 14:

RBI Gold Holdings : RBI gold reserves are part of India's forex reserves maintained by RBI on behalf of Government of India (for more on RBI gold holdings, see blog dated 07Mar2022).

RBI bought 200 metric tonnes of gold from International Monetary Fund (IMF) during October 19-30, 2009.

After buying gold from IMF, RBI kept quiet for eight years. It started buying physical gold again at the end of 2017.

Between 2017 and now, RBI has accumulated additional gold amounting to 270 metric tonnes. As of 26Apr2024, RBI holds 827.7 metric tonnes of gold.

Gold held abroad:

Since 1991, RBI has been holding 65.49 tonnes of gold abroad; the amount was constant till Oct2009, when RBI bought 200 tonnes of gold from IMF. Then, the quantity of gold held abroad (kept with Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements) increased to 265.49 tonnes including gold bought from IMF.

As the below chart reveals, gold held abroad increased from 265.49 tonnes in Mar2010 to 453.52 tonnes in Mar2022, which was the peak for gold kept abroad and later gold held abroad started coming down.

So, what caused the change of heart in RBI to bring back gold from abroad to India? What happened in Mar2022?

Between Mar2022 and Mar2024, RBI gold holdings rose from 760.4 tonnes to 822.1 tonnes. In the same period, gold held in India rose from 295.8 tonnes to 408.3 tonnes; while gold held abroad declined from 453.5 tonnes to 387.3 tonnes -- clearly indicating RBI brought back, at least 50 tonnes, gold from foreign vaults (kept with Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements) to Indian vaults.

Possible reasons for RBI shifting physical gold from abroad to India are discussed in this blog (see updates 25May2024 and 10Nov2023 in this blog).

You could also check X Posts: Tweet dated 25May2024 and Tweet 10Nov2023 when the author found out the revelation seven months before the popular media got scent of it. And the media got the amount of gold brought back from abroad wrong.

The following chart further reveals the following:

> the percentage of physical gold held in India rose from 38.9 per cent in Mar2022 to 49.7 per cent in Mar2024

> it may be added the percentage of physical gold held in Mar1995 was as high as 83.5 per cent -- over the years, the percentage of gold held in India declined till Mar2022

(Note: RBI gold holdings in 1998-99 declined due to redemption of Gold Bonds scheme - source: page 133 of RBI Annual Report 1998-99)

Details of RBI's physical gold holdings are available from three RBI sources:

1). RBI annual reports (data as at end of March every year)

2). RBI Half-Yearly Report on Foreign Exchange Reserves (data as at end-March and end-September every year) -- this report contains more comprehensive data on RBI gold reserves

3). RBI Monthly Bulletin (data at weekly intervals, but available only in RBI Bulletins released every month). It may be added RBI was not revealing volume data of physical gold in its monthly RBI Bulletins prior to 2021; but started revealing volume data only since Jan2021 (with weekly volume data from 20Nov2020 onwards).

Tweet 07Mar2022 RBI gold reserves

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Update 15Jun2024: Charts 12 to 13:

RBI Gold Holdings : RBI

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Update 12Jun2024: Charts 10 and 11:

FPI Flows to India : Foreign Portfolio flows: 15-year data from 2010 to 2014 both calendar- and financial-year wise: FPI flows in both equity and debt segments (old blog 10Jul2022) >

FPI flows to India in equity segment have been negative to an extent of nearly Rs 30,000 crore in CY 2024; while debt flows are positive with Rs 75,000 crore in the same period.

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Update 10Jun2024: Chart 9:

RBI Rate of Earnings on FCA: Rate of earnings generated by RBI on its foreign current assets, which are part of its forex reserves: 25-year data from 1999-2000 to 2023-24 (related blog 08Mar2020 and another 10Nov2023):

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Update 10Jun2024: Chart 8:

India Forex Reserves Data: Blog updated with latest data (the blog has data from 1999-2000 onwards) >

Table showing India's foreign exchange reserves data from FY 2009-10 till FY 2023-24. Table also shows accretion and depletion of forex reserves during a financial year; USD sale and purchase by RBI during a financial year and USD - INR level at the end of a financial year >

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Update 09Jun2024: Charts 6 and 7:

Dollar-Rupee exchange rate: Why RBI Won't Favour a Strong Rupee: Blog dated 03Jun2024 >

Exhibit 3: Financial year-wise yearly gain for USD-INR: Data include not only year-wise changes but also 5-year change (annualised). For example, between end-Mar2019 and end-Mar2024, the USD appreciated by 3.8 per cent annualised rate. And between end-Mar2011 and end-Mar2016, the annualised USD appreciation vs INR was much higher at 8.2 per cent.

For the past 25 years, USD has gained by an annualised 2.7 per cent versus INR.

Exhibit 4: Calendar year-wise yearly gain for USD-INR: Data include not only year-wise changes but also 5-year change (annualised). For example, between end-Dec2016 and end-Dec2021, the annualised appreciation for USD vs INR is only 1.8 per cent; whereas between end-Dec2007 and end-Dec2012, it was 6.8 per cent annualised.

For the past 25 years, the USD has appreciated versus INR at an annualised rate of 2.7 per cent.

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Update 09Jun2024: Charts 4 and 5:

RBI surplus transfer to Govt of India - Blog dated 23May2024 >

RBI provided the rate of earnings for FY 2023-24 in its annual report released on 30May2024. The rate of earnings on FCA for FY 2023-24 was 4.21 per cent.

Rate of earnings in graphical representation:

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Update 09Jun2024: Charts 1 to 3:

Falling FDI flows to India: Blog updated with data for FY 2023-24 >

Table 1: One of the biggest economic policy failures of PM Modi gov't is the precipitous fall in FDI in the past three years consecutively.

In fact, net foreign direct investment (FDI) to India in FY 2023-24 is just USD 10.6 billion, which is the lowest in 17 years.

Table 2: New chart with data of Gross FDI Inflows and FDI Repatriated from FY 2006-07 to 2023-24 >

Data from 2006-07 to 2023-24: Gross FDI inflows, FDI repatriated, FDI to india, FDI by India and net FDI; and their annual growth rates are given here:

While gross FDI to India in FY 2023-24 remains stagnant at USD 71 billion, FDI repatriated surged by 51% to USD 44.4 billion.

Net FDI to India (after deducting FDI by India) is just USD 10.6 billion in FY 2023-24, down a staggering 62.2% compapred to previous year.

While gross FDI inflows to India are up 97% (CAGR 7%) in the past 10 years, FDI repatriated out of India is up by a staggering 740% ( CAGR 23.7%).

Table 3: FDI inflows are down 13.7% (CAGR -1.5%) in the past 10 years from USD 30.8 billion in 2013-14 to USD 26.6 billion in 2023-24, as per latest data from RBI.

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Related blogs on Forex:

Why RBI Won't Favour A Strong Rupee 03Jun2024

Currency Pairs: How to Calculate Depreciation or Appreciation 01Jun2024

RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Government of India 23May2024

India Foreign Exchange Reserves Comfortable 10Nov2023

When Will Federal Reserve Stop Hiking Interest Rates 25Feb2023

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors 10Jul2022

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India 25May2022

India Foreign Exchange Reserves Data 18May2022

India forex reserves in four charts 08Mar2022

Foreign investors' waning interest in Indian stocks 21Jan2022

(includes write-up on FPI investment limits in G-Secs, SDLs and corporate bonds)

RBI Gold holdings 07Mar2022

RBI announces USD INR Buy Sell Swaps 22Feb2022

US Dollar Sales and Purchases by Reserve Bank of India (forex intervention) 05Aug2021

India's forex reserves - abysmal returns 13Mar2014

My Tweets (X Posts):

Tweet (Post X) thread 09Jun2024 - Forex Data Bank

Tweet 17Jun2024 - FPIs / FIIs were allowed to invest in India effective 14Sep1992

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References and additional data:

Top image: AI-generated image from Google Gemini

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Sources of information for this Forex Data Bank:

RBI data releases - details of weekly monthly, quarterly and annual data points released by RBI - for example, forex reserves including gold, currency in circulation (CIC), ECBs, RBI monthly bulletin, weekly supplement, balance of trade, household financial savings, International Investment Position (IIP), half-yearly report on forex reserves, RBI annual report, HBIE and others

RBI Annual Reports

NSDL FPI monitor - FPI flows CY

NSDL FPI monitor - FPI flows FY

NSDL FPI monitor - FPI AUC data / category-wise

NSDL FPI monitor - FPI AUC / top 10 countries data

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Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise

Big Surge in Number of Shareholders in PSUs

Why RBI Won't Favour A Strong Rupee

Currency Pairs: How to Calculate Depreciation or Appreciation

Sensex versus Gold Price

RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Govt of India

The Little Secret Behind Nifty Next 50 Index's Recent Success

Rapid Rise of India's PMS Industry

NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns: 2006 to 2024

How to Buy Nifty Midcap Index 03May2024

NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 31Mar2024

India Passive Funds and Their Asset Size 29Apr2024

Global Market Data 31Mar2024

Understanding Real Sensex and Currency Debasement

Select Gilt Funds Performance

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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