Global Market Data 30Sep2023
(This
is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a
recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial
adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested
interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)
(please look at the blog dated 16Jan2023 for data from 2012 to 2022)
(Please check update 19Nov2023 at the end of the blog)
Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 30 September 2023, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows:
Table 1: (please click on the image to view better)
For the quarter ending 30Sep2023, global stocks are mild with Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices losing 4.1 and 3.6 percent respectively. European and Asian indices too witnessed falls of between 2.9 and 5.8 percent during the quarter.
But the outlier markets are the UK and Indian indices. The benchmark FTSE index is up 1 percent and Nifty 50 and BSE Midcap indices are up by 2.3 and 12.4 percent respectively. The mid- and small-cap stocks have been doing well in India in the past two quarters.
(story continues below)
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Related Blogs:
Global Market Data 2012 to 2022
Global Market Data 31Mar2023
Global Market Data 31Dec2022
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The steep rise in US bond yields have rattled stock markets globally. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 74 basis points during the Jul-Sep2023 quarter, while Indian 10-year yield showed an increase of just 10 basis points in the same period. (100 basis points equal one percentage point)
Crude oil prices have shown massive increase with Nymex rising by 28.8 percent and Brent rising by 26.4 percent -- driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia announcing further output cuts, lower inventories and resilient demand.
Gold and silver are weak during the quarter, while Bitcoin fell by 11.6 percent.
On the currency front, the US dollar has strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index (DXY) gaining 3.2 percent during the quarter.
Year-to-date (past 9-month returns) global market data as on 30Sep2023 are presented below:
Table 2: (please click on the image to view better)
Year-to-date, Nasdaq Composite and Nikkei 225 have done well with gains of 26.3 and 22.1 percent respectively between 31Dec2022 and 30Sep2023.
Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite barely budged and Hang Seng lost 10 percent of its value. In India, Nifty 50 gained 8.5 percent -- but the biggest gain is for BSE Midcap with a gain of 27.8 percent.
The US 10-year Treasury yield gained 70 basis points, with US bonds losing their value for second year running after the 2022 bond rout.
YTD, Nymex (WTI) crude gained 12.7 percent, while gold is muted with a gain of 1.9 percent. Silver lost 7.4 percent, while Bitcoin gained 62.5 percent after its 2022 debacle.
The US dollar index gained 2.6 percent -- the biggest gain for the USD is against the Japanese Yen with USD gaining 13.9 percent versus the JPY.
The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has suffered currency depreciation versus the US dollar during 2023. China is often accused of currency manipulation.
To Sum Up
One surprising item is the resilience of crypto currencies, like, Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2023. It may be recalled they faced a rout in 2022. Their recovery in 2023 indicates that these crypto assets and currencies still have more room for upside amidst global turmoil with higher and unsustainable government debt in major economies.
The crypto traders and investors believe that crypto assets are likely to work as a hedge against currency debasement by central banks with fiat currencies. But the insane volatility of crypto currencies is still a worry for such investors.
The rise of crude oil prices is a setback for oil-importing countries like India, which is highly dependent on oil imports. There are still fears of a US recession with the US Federal Reserve hinting further interest rate hikes in the US.
In the past one month, global bond yields have surged. Rising bond yields may again slow down the stock markets, which have recovered this year after massive fall in 2022.
With the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.58 percent, bond investors, who want to hold them for at least 12 to 18 months, might lock in at these higher yields despite fears of the US keeping interest rates 'higher for longer.'
However, investors need to watch the developments surrounding the high and unsustainable US government debt and fiscal deficit. On top of that, there is a looming government shutdown once again in the US.
Maybe, global asset markets need to brace for higher volatility in the next three months, with crude oil threatening to reach USD 100 per barrel in the next two or three weeks.
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P.S.: After the writing the blog on 30Sep2023, the following images / info are added for information:
update 19Nov2023: #YTD Year-to-date, the best performing asset is Bitcoin with a growth of 120 percent!
Commodities are weak so far in 2023, but gold is up 8.4% YTD.
India's Sensex is up only 8.1%; while S&P 500 is up 17.6%; Nasdaq is up 35%.
The narrative that India is going to be the best stock market does not stand when you look at the year-to-date data.
Even Nikkei 225 and DAX 30 have done far better than Indian stock market so far in 2023.
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Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.
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He blogs at:
https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/
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