Best Value For Your Money from RamaKrishnaVadlamudi: stocks

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Saturday, 29 June 2024

Global Market Data 30Jun2024 - vrk100 - 29Jun2024

Global Market Data 30Jun2024

(This is for information and educational purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 30 June 2024, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows:

Table 1: (please click on the image to view better)

The global stocks are a mixed bag during the Apr-Jun2024 quarter. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down 1.7 per cent for the quarter, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are up 8.3 and 3.9 per cent respectively.

Of the major indices, Nasdaq Composite index has delivered the best performance as artificial intelligence-powered stocks, like NVIDIA, have done well.

Hang Seng, FTSE 100 and Sensex have delivered positive results, but Nikkei 225, Shanghai Composite and Dax 30 indices delivered negative returns for the Apr-Jun2024 quarter.

India 10-year Government Bond yield is down 5 basis points (one percentage point equals 100 basis points), while the US 10-year Treasury yield is 18 up basis points for the quarter.

Crude oil is down slightly for the quarter. But silver has outperformed most commodities with a quarterly return of more than 17 per cent. Gold delivered 3.6 per cent with its price reaching all-time highs during the quarter.

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Related blogs:

Global Market Data 31Mar2024

Global Market Data 2013 to 2023 (11-year data)

Global Market Data 2012 to 2022 (11-year data)

Global Market Data 31Dec2023

Global Market Data 30Sep2023

Global Market Data 31Mar2023

Global Market Data 31Dec2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

Global Market Data 30Jun2022

Global Market Data 31Mar2022

Global Market Data 31Dec2021

Global Market Data 30Sep2021

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After a stellar 66-per cent return in the first quarter, Bitcoin disappointed with a negative return of 13 per cent during the second quarter.

There is not much movement on the currency front, with the US dollar index gaining 1.3 per cent for the quarter -- all of the gain is due to severe weakness in Japanese Yen. The USD gained 6.3 per cent versus the JPY, while British Pound, Euro and Indian rupee remained stable during the second quarter.

Year-to-date (past 6-month returns) global market data as on 30Jun2024 are presented below:

Table 2: (please click on the image to view better)

Global stocks during the calendar year 2024 are generally positive, except for Shanghai Composite which declined by 0.3 per cent during the period.

Of the major indices, Nikkei 225 delivered the best returns of 18.3 per cent during the first half of 2024. Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 and Nifty 50 indices are positive with 18.1, 14.5 and 10.5 per cent returns respectively.

Mid- and small-cap stocks continue to do well in India, with the BSE Mid cap index delivered a powerful 25 per cent return during the period.

Major commodities are on the upswing with crude oil rising by 12 to 14 per cent; gold by 12.8 percent and silver by 22.6 per cent. Bloomberg commodity index is up 2.4 per cent for the quarter.

One could say silver is the best asset class in 2024, other than crypto currencies.

After giving one of the best performance in 2024 due to rising inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds), Bitcoin has cooled down a bit in the past one or two weeks.

The US dollar index (DXY) gained 4.4 per cent during the first two quarters of 2024; most of the gain is due to sharp fall in JPY. Indian rupee is remarkably stable -- due to obvious foreign exchange intervention by Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank.

At the start of 2024, it was expected the US Federal Reserve would resort to three or four federal funds rate cuts in 2024. But there has been no rate cut so far; and now market seems to be expecting only one rate cut for the rest of the year.

This has resulted in a bit of disappointment for the market with investors selling of US Treasury notes / bonds. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 52 basis points in 2024 (bond yields move in opposite direction to bond prices, meaning rising prices result in falling yields and vice versa).

Wrap up

Most of the global stock indices, like in the US and India, are at all time highs or close to them. The outlook for the next quarter will depend on how the Federal Reserve will react to future data flow.

In second quarter, the European Central Bank, for the first time in five years, cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent; and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent.

SNB's rate cut in Jun2024 followed a rate cut in Mar2024.

It remains to be seen whether the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England (BoE) will cut their interest rates too, following the example of SNB and ECB, in the third quarter. But market seems to be expecting rate cuts from the Fed and BoE.

The way currencies are debased across the globe; crypto currencies, like, Bitcoin and Ethereum, might do well in the next few years -- though their stomach-churning volatility is too big a pain to bear for most of the common investors.

The US presidential elections are due in less than five months and the presidential aspirants have shown no inclination to reduce the humoungous and ever-rising US government debt. Such unsustainable debts and fiscal profligacy in the US and Europe are likely to be positive, ceteris paribus, for crypt currencies.

(This should not be considered as a recommendation or investment advice -- investors should consult their own financial advisors before taking any investment decisions)

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The Reference Shelf:

Top image: AI-image from Google Gemini (ISS)

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Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise

Indian Economy Data Bank

India Forex Data Bank

Brief History of India's 1991 Forex Crisis and Gold Pledge

You Can Boast About It!

Big Surge in Number of Shareholders in PSUs

Why RBI Won't Favour A Strong Rupee

Currency Pairs: How to Calculate Depreciation or Appreciation

Sensex versus Gold Price

RBI's Record Surplus Transfer to Govt of India

The Little Secret Behind Nifty Next 50 Index's Recent Success

Rapid Rise of India's PMS Industry

NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns: 2006 to 2024

How to Buy Nifty Midcap Index 03May2024

Understanding Real Sensex and Currency Debasement

Select Gilt Funds Performance

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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Saturday, 30 March 2024

Global Market Data 31Mar2024 - vrk100 - 30Mar2024

Global Market Data 31Mar2024

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(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

(please look at the blog dated 12Jan2024 for data from 2013 to 2023)

Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 31 March 2024 (29th March is last trading of Mar2024), of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows:

Table 1: (please click on the image to view better)

As shown in the table above, the biggest surprise in global stocks, during the first quarter of 2024, is the spectacular rise of 20.6 percent in Japanese benchmark index Nikkei 225. German stock index Dax 30 and the US' S&P 500 index too have done well with more than 10 percent each in the same period.

Soaring Nikkei 225 index is driven mainly by strong corporate profit growth in Japanese companies (including those of semiconductor stocks) and weaker currency Yen.

After decades of slump, foreign investors are increasingly drawn to Japanese stocks, reposing their confidence in Japan. Legendary investor Warren Buffett too has been investing in Japanese conglomerates for quite some time.

Indian, Chinese and the UK stocks have given muted returns, with the Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing 3 percent of its value in the Jan-Mar2024 quarter.

(story continues below)

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Related blogs:

Global Market data 2013 to 2023 (11-year data)

Global Market Data 2012 to 2022 (11-year data)

Global Market Data 31Dec2023

Global Market Data 30Sep2023

Global Market Data 31Mar2023

Global Market Data 31Dec2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

Global Market Data 30Jun2022

Global Market Data 31Mar2022

Global Market Data 31Dec2021

Global Market Data 30Sep2021

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The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 34 basis points (100 basis points equal one percentage point) to 4.21 percent -- due to concerns about the US Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates soon enough.

India 10-year G-Sec bond yield is down 12 basis points.

Crude oil is the biggest gainer among major commodities, with WTI crude and Brent gaining 16.5 and 12.9 percent respectively during the first quarter of 2024. Gold has been reaching all-time-highs recently, with gains of 8.8 percent for the quarter.

Bitcoin too has been hitting all-time-highs with the US Sec granting permission to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs or exchange traded funds. However, Bitcoin is extremely volatile and excessively speculative.

Investing in crypto currencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, is not for novice investors and the faint-hearted. It may be a promising asset class for a select few who can bear the vicissitudes of their prices, but for most investors it is a no-go area.

The US dollar index (DXY) gained 3.1 percent during the quarter due mainly to weakness in Japanese Yen (JPY). JPY depreciated versus the US dollar even though Bank of Japan (BoJ is Japan's central bank) made two policy pivots in its management of currency and monetary policy -- one is BoJ ending 17 years of negative interest rates and the other ending its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

Among agricultural commodities, Cocoa futures soared to a fresh all-time-high level of USD 9,900 per ton, due to poor harvest in Western African nations of Ivory Coast and Ghana.

On the contrary, Steel futures slumped to a four-year-low of CNY 3,664 per ton on 28Mar2024 due to increasingly pessimistic outlook on Chinese demand.

Global stocks and bonds will, in future, be driven by how central banks respond to incoming data in the next two quarters. It is expected the US Federal Reserve (US' central bank) will be cutting interest rates at least three times in the remaining part of 2024.

Global bond yields, generally, have risen in the past quarter -- due to concerns about major central banks keeping their interest rates higher for longer.

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Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise

Understanding Real Sensex and Currency Debasement

Select Gilt Funds Performance

R K Swamy Ltd IPO - Highlights from Prospectus

SEBI Categorization and Rationalization of Mutual Funds

AMFI List of Market Cap: Categorization of Large-, Mid- and Small-Cap Stocks

Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry

Zydus Lifesciences Buyback Offer 2024

Equity ETFs and Equity Index Funds Compared

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Dec2023

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Indices Compare 31Dec2023

NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2023

Nifty 50 Index Yearly Movement 31Dec2023

Global Market Data: 2013 to 2023

Global Bond Yields Fall Sharply

India: Prospects and Challenges

Buyback Offers and Weblinks

Negative Impact of Debt Mutual Fund Tax Changes

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

CFA Charter credentials - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

Viewing Options for this blog in different formats:

Classic

Flipcard

Magazine

Mosaic

Sidebar

Snapshot

Timeslide

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

X (Twitter) @vrk100

Friday, 12 January 2024

Global Market Data: 2013 to 2023 - vrk100 - 12Jan2024

Global Market Data: 2013 to 2023

Follow @vrk100

(Images, with past calendar-year data from 2012 to 2024 are included at the end of the blog)

Global market data pertaining to stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies are presented here. The data points are yearly changes and compounded returns from 2013 to 2023, indicating how the values have moved over the years. This is an update of an earlier blog published on 16Jan2023.

(write-up continues below)

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Related blogs:

Global Market Data 2012 to 2022 (11-year data)

Global Market Data 31Dec2023

Global Market Data 30Sep2023

Global Market Data 31Mar2023

Global Market Data 31Dec2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

Global Market Data 30Jun2022

Global Market Data 31Mar2022

Global Market Data 31Dec2021

Global Market Data 30Sep2021

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This is just raw data. You can draw your insights from the data.

Table 1: Yearly Changes from 2013 to 2023:

(please click on the image to view better) >

The stock market data presented in the table are price returns (not including dividends) and they are in local currency terms. For example, Sensex returns are price returns (not including dividends) shown in local currency (Indian rupee) terms.

You can find out how the assets classes and currencies have moved over the years. The above table reveals the cyclical nature of the returns in global financial markets.

As revealed in table 1, equity investors have been enjoying a decade of good returns; with the US, European and some emerging market stocks doing well overall. Only the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets, of the major economies, have been very disappointing for investors.

Of course, equities did not perform well during the calendar years of 2015, 2018 and 2022. Despite the setbacks in those years, equities have done relatively well overall in the past decade.

The performance of gold in US dollar terms has been patchy in the past decade -- though it had a few good years.

You can observe from the data how currencies, commodities and bond yields have moved over the past decade.

Table 2: Compounded Annual Returns:

The table 2 reveals compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) returns for 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year as at the end of 31Dec2023 >

You can also compare the CAGR returns in table 2 with yearly returns presented in table 1 above.

For example, Bitcoin generated a 3-year CAGR of just 13.4 percent even though it had generated spectacular returns of 154 and 62 percent respectively in 2023 and 2021. The reason for the poor return is it had lost almost two-thirds of its value in calendar year 2022.

However, its 5-year CAGR is an amazing 62 percent, because it has four years of spectacular returns in the past five years. The crypto currency's volatility is too high for many investors / speculators to stomach.

One year of large fall will wipe out four to five years of spectacular returns -- this has happened often in the past with extremely smart investors and it's going to happen in future also.

Nikkei 225, the Japanese equity benchmark index, has delivered a 5-year CAGR of 10.8 percent as at the end of 31Dec2023. Two or three years ago, nobody would have predicted Japanese stocks would provide such decent returns.

To get a better sense of this: consider the 5-year CAGR of just 2.8 percent for the Nikkei at the end of 31Dec2022.

The US dollar has appreciated, versus the Indian rupee, by at a yearly compounded average rate of 3 percent in the past decade ending 31Dec2023.

As mentioned previously, market players need to ask questions about the constant chatter in the electronic and print media about the movement of asset class returns.

We should not be over-interpreting the data and spoil our medium and long term outlook for the asset class returns. If we react to every move or news item, we tend to lose our focus and may earn only sub-optimal returns on our investments.

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P.S.: 22Apr2025

Past data: Calendar year data for 2024 are included here:

Calendar-year wise returns >

Forex Data Bank: Chart 46 / update 01Jan2025