Wednesday 19 October 2022

Kaveri Seed Company - Buyback Offer 2022 - vrk100 - 19Oct2022

Kaveri Seed Company - Buyback Offer 2022


 

 

(Updates 27Dec2022, 31Oct2022 and 27Oct2022 are available below. Even though this blog was posted originally on 19Oct2022, I'll be updating this blog whenever new information is made available on the buyback offer.) 

 

(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any plunge. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.) 

 

 

Kaveri Seed Company Limited on 19Oct2022 (after closure of market hours) announced, through a BSE stock exchange filing, that its board of directors would meet on 27Oct2022 to consider a proposal to buy back the company's shares. 

 

2. At day's end on 19Oct2022, Kaveri Seed's market price is Rs 445.65 per share with a market cap of Rs 2,690 crore. The trailing 12-month or TTM P/E ratio of the stock is 10.50, its price-to-book or P/B ratio is 2.00 and its price-sales or P/S ratio is 2.70.

 

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Related:

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

Zydus Lifesciences Buyback Offer 2022

FDC Limited Buyback Offer 2022

GE Shipping Company Buyback Offer 2021  

Kaveri Seed Company buyback offer 2021

Crompton Greaves Buyback Offer 2013

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3.  This will be the fifth buyback proposal by the company in the past five years. Instead of dividend route, the company has of late chosen the buyback route, mainly due to tax reasons, to distribute its cash surplus to shareholders. I had analysed the 2021 buyback offer in real time. 


4. The following table provides details of previous buyback offers by Kaveri Seeds. (details of the current buyback proposal are yet be announced; it's not clear whether the company will choose the 'tender offer' route or 'buyback through stock exchanges' route.)


Table 1: Past Buyback Offers  



5. As shown in Table 1 above, the company had chosen the route of tender offer three times and in 2021 it had opted for buyback from open market via stock exchanges directly.

 

6. Even though the company had spent a total of  Rs 716 crore in the past four buyback offers, the market seems to be not enthused about the stock of Kaveri Seeds. The stock price has moved in a range of Rs 400- 800 per share in the past five years. 


7. Obviously, the market has not rewarded the shareholders in the past five years (via price appreciation) due to tepid growth in sales and earnings growth and heavy competition; and as such the current valuation ratios are below the long term averages.

 

8. Let us see what percentage of paid-up equity shares were cancelled / extinguished through the four buyback offers in the past five years.

Table 2: Percentage of shares cancelled via buybacks > 



9. As shown in Table 2 above, a total of 15.5 percent of the shares were extinguished so far in four buybacks, which has helped in boosting the earnings per share (EPS) of the company. One advantage of buybacks is the remaining shareholders will be able to enjoy a higher share of the profits, due to reduction in number of shares, provided the company in future would be able to boost overall earnings also. 


10. In an unrelated development, the company on 01Oct2022 informed that it had received an Income Tax demand of Rs 73.25 crore disallowing certain tax exemptions claimed by the company previously. The implications of the tax demand on the company are not yet clear though the company claims it is entitled to the tax exemptions.

 

Update 27Oct2022

 

10. As scheduled, Infosys' Board of Directors met on 27Oct2022 and announced quarterly results and brief details of buyback (the announcement was made during the market hours). As at the time of updating this blog 27Oct22, the market price of its stock is Rs 484 per share (up 6 per cent intra-day) with a market cap of Rs 2,820 crore.

11. Limited details of buyback as announced on 27Oct2022 >



12. Brief details of the buybacks, including the current one > 


 13. It's funny the company's Board should set the maximum buyback price (through open market via stock exchanges) at Rs 700 per share, which is nearly 18 percent below its previous offer (2021) price of Rs 850.

 

Update 31Oct2022

 

14. The company today made a public announcement giving full details of the buyback proposal.


15. The maximum buyback size (which is Rs 125.65 crore) represents 9.85% and 9.68% of the company's aggregate of the total paid-up capital and free reserves on a standalone and consolidated basis respectively as of 31Mar2022. 


16. As the maximum buyback size is less than 10% of the total paid-up capital and free reserves based on both standalone and consolidated financial statements, shareholder approval is not required for the buyback proposal. 


17. The buyback will start on 07Nov2022 and the last date will be earlier of 06May2023 (that is, six months from the date of start) or when the company fully deploys the maximum buyback size. 

 

18. As per buyback norms, the company has already deposited Rs 31.4125 crore (being 25% of the maximum buyback size) into an Escrow Account opened for this purpose.  


19. Details of daily Buyback are available at this BSE weblink


Update 27Dec2022 - Closure of Buyback

 

20. After closure of market hours on 27Dec2022, Kaveri Seed Company announced the closure of the buyback offer. Between 07Nov2022 and 27Dec2022, the company bought back 23,99,831 equity shares at an average price of Rs 522.40 per share -- using Rs 125.37 crore (99.78 percent of the maximum buyback size).

21. As at close of 27Dec2022, the share price of the company is Rs 513 with a market cap of Rs 3,095 crore. As the promoters did not (rather could not) participate in the buyback, their stake in the company increased from 57.44 percent pre-buyback to 59.90 percent post-buyback. 

22. As shown in below table, the promoters were able to increase their stake from 54.43 percent to 59.90 in the past five buyback offers between 2017 and now. 


23. In the past five buybacks, the company was able to cancel 19 percent of the total equity shares. 


24. Brief details of the all the past buyback offers are given in the table below: 



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Read more:  

Indian Energy Exchange Limited - Brief Analysis

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets 

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving 

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

 

Monday 17 October 2022

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd: Brief Analysis - vrk100 - 17Oct2022

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd: Brief Analysis 


  

(An update 19Nov2022 on buyback proposal is available here.)

 

(Disclaimer: This is just for information purposes only; this is not an investment recommendation. Prospective investors should consult their investment advisors before making any trades. It's safe to assume the author has a vested interest in all stocks / financial products discussed here.)

 

Indian Energy Exchange  Limited or IEX - Brief Analysis: 

CMP Rs 139; market cap Rs 12,500 crore (close of 17Oct2022)

 

Business model

 

- IEX, India's first power exchange,  has been operating since 27 June 2008


- IEX offers various compelling choices to trade in – Electricity Market, Green Market and Certificates

 

-  IEX is an automated trading platform for physical delivery of electricity and renewable energy

 

- its market share in power trading is between 85% and 90% currently 

 

- As per Accounting Standard AS 108, the company has only one operating segment, that is, power segment


- India’s total generation was 1483 billion units of electricity in financial year 2022 as per CEA data, out of which 75% was generated from thermal, 10% from hydro, 11% from renewables, and 3% from nuclear (IEX annual report FY 2021-22) 

 

-  India's installed capacity in power sector (FY 2021-22):

 

   Total 399 GW

   Thermal 236 GW (59.1%)

   Renewables 110 (27.5%)

   Hydro 47 GW (11.8%)

   Nuclear 7 GW (1.7%)


- The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power plants monitored by the Central Electricity Authority stood at 58.9% in financial year 2021-22, compared to 54.6% in financial year 2020.


- IEX established a gas exchange also, named Indian Gas Exchange (IGX)

 

- IGX is India's first automated gas exchange for gas trading


- IGX started operations on 10Dec2020 after taking Gas Trading Platform license from Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB)


-- IGX is promoted by IEX and NSE Ltd; IGX's strategic investors include Gail (India) Ltd, ONGC Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation, Adani Gas and Torrent Gas



Listing

 

- IEX share was listed on BSE and NSE on 23Oct2017

 

Risks

 

- "Market coupling" mechanism by CERC whereby 'order matching' and 'price discovery' will be done via an independent Market Coupling Authority



Competition

 

- competition is growing for IEX, with another two players starting operations

 

- IEX is practically a monopoly, but this could change in the next few years


- As on 17Oct2022, there are three power exchanges (PE) in India

 

- Power Exchange India Ltd (PXIL) is India's second PE

 

- PXIL is promoterd by NSE Ltd and NCDEX Ltd


- Hindustan Power Exchange (HPX) (erstwhile Pranurja Solutions Limited) is India's third PE 

 

- HPX is promoted by PTC India Ltd, BSE Ltd and ICICI Bank


- HPX started commercial operations on 06Jul2022

 

Shareholding 


- As per the latest shareholding (30Jun2022), IEX doesn't have any promoters; it's professionally managed

 

- FPIs hold 21% stake; DIIs 22% and public 57%

 

- Aquamarine Master Fund (Guy Spier's Aquamrine Capital Mgmt) holds 1.47% stake (consistently since Sep2019, as per available records)

 

Solvency

 

- its debt-equity ratio is zero (a cash-rich company)


Valuation as on 17Oct2022

 

- At CMP of Rs 139 (market cap Rs 12,500 crore), its TTM P/E ratio is 40.2, P/B is 18.1 and P/S ratio is 28.5


- the share's all-time high (ATH) is Rs 318 on 19Oct2021; and it's down 57% from its ATH

 

Profitability

 

- Its OPM (operating profit margin) is between 80% and 85% in the past 3 years

 

-  its gross profit margin (GPM) is 100%; operating profit margin (OPM) is 82.4% and net profit margin (NPM) is 69.7% (as on 30Jun2022) -- OPM declined for the past two quarters

 

-  its NPM (net profit margin) is between 65% and 71% in the past three years

 

- its sales growth has decelerated in the past two quarters (FY 2020-21 and 21-22 were high sales growth years for the company)


- its tax rate is between 22% and 24% in the past three years


- its ROCE is between 57% and 63% in the past three years


-- its annualised sales growth is 19% in the past 3 years


- its annualised net profit growth is 24% in the past 3 years


- its dividend payout ratio is b/w 42% and 59% in the past 3 years 


- free cash available is Rs 650 crore (out of which Rs 90 crore will be paid as dividend after AGM) as on 30Jun2022

 

 

Regulatory Overhang

 

- CERC (Central Electricity Regulatory Commission) vide its order dt 29Sep22 directed further extension of price cap from 01Oct22 to 31Dec22

 

- CERC originally put price cap (range of Re 0 / kwh to Rs 12 / kwh) effective from 06May22 to 30Jun22 and later extended the price cap further from 01Jul22 to 30Sep22

 

- PXIL Circulars - for CERC orders and others


- PIB press release 07Oct2021 - 10-year-long CERC - SEBI turf war on power market resolved by India's Supreme Court: "Both SEBI and CERC have come to an agreement that CERC will regulate all the physical delivery based forward contracts whereas the financial derivatives will be regulated by SEBI. Ministry of power issued suitable order on 10.07.2020.

This has opened the gate for introduction of longer duration delivery-based contracts in the power exchanges which has been currently restricted to only 11 days due to the pendency of the case. This will enable the Discoms and other large consumers to plan their short term power procurement more efficiently. Similarly, the commodity exchanges viz. MCX etc. can now introduce financial products viz. Electricity futures etc. which will enable the Discoms and other large consumers to effectively hedge their risks of power procurement. This is a significant development and has the potential to change the landscape of the power market in the country. This will bring newer products in the power/commodity exchanges and attract increased participation from Genco, Discoms, large consumers etc. which will eventually deepen the power market.

This will further deepen the power market from the present level of approx. 5.5% of the volume to the targeted volume of 25% by 2024-25."

 

- IEX is regulated by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)

 

- CERC had been set up by Govt of India under the provisions of the Electricity Regulatory Commission Act, 1998 and is deemed to be constituted as per Electricity Act, 2003, which has repealed  the Electricity Regulatory Commission Act, 1998

 

- CERC is under the ambit of Ministry of Power, Coal and New & Renewable Energy, Govt of India 

 

- power exchanges in India are also guided by the provisions of Govt of India' s Central Electricity Authority (CEA) 

 

To Sum Up

 

Though the key risks are regulatory overhang (especially the recent price cap of Rs 12/ kwh on power exchanges) and growing competition threatening the monopoly of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX), at the current market price or CMP of Rs 139, the stock appears to be attractive for long term investment of three to five years given its high profitability, big opportunity in power trading in the next five years, zero debt, clean balance sheet, high cash levels, possibility of a share buyback by the company, stock's market neglect and others.


This is just my personal opinion and for information purposes only; this should not be construed as investment advice and investors should consult their own advisors before taking any plunge.

 

- - -

Abbreviations

 

DAM - day-ahead market (physical power trading market)

RTM - real time market

DAM and RTM are the same

GDAM - green DAM

TAM - term-ahead market (11 days ahead market)

REC - renewable electricity certificate

ESC - energy saving certificate

GTAM - green term ahead market


References: 

Article dated 22Dec2021 - Power Exchanges in India – Overview and Way Forward

by Raveena K Sethia, Shreeyash U Lalit & Aribba Siddique

 

ICICI Direct 26Jul22

ICICI Direct 29Apr22

ICICI Direct 25Jan22

ICICI Direct 22Oct21

ICICI Direct 16Mar21

 

17Oct2022: - stock investing - #Corporate #Investing - Know Your Company -

 

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Read more:  

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets 

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving 

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

 

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

Friday 14 October 2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Sep2022 - vrk100 - 14Oct2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Sep2022

 

JP Morgan Asset Management publishes a comprehensive presentation every month end, containing various slides on global markets, especially those relating to the US markets.
  
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Related Blogs: 

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jul2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Apr2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jan2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Dec2021

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Nov2021

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Aug2021

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This is a very useful and informative guide for financial market professionals or FMPs.  This "JP Morgan Guide to the Markets" can be accessed here. The following are some of the highlights / images presented in this guide: all the data are at the end of 30Sep2022: 

 1. S&P 500 index forward P/E now is 15.1, versus 21.4 on 31Dec2021 -- forward P/E as on 24Mar2000 (before dot.com bubble) was 25.2


2. 25-year average forward P/E for S&P 500 is 16.8


3. S&P 500: YTD price return (2022) is minus 24.8%; consisting of earnings growth of 5.1% and multiple growth of minus 29.9%


4. peak WTI crude oil price was USD 145.29 per barrel on 03Jul2008


5. as on 30Sep2022: US real yield is minus 2.52%; core CPI inflation is 6.32% and 10-year US treasury yield (nominal) is 3.83%


6. YTD return (from 31Dec21 to 30Sep22): 30-year US Treasury bond return is minus 31.5%; 10-year US Treasury note return is minus 16.9% and TIPS return is minus 13.6%


7. Fixed income YTD returns for the US, Japan, Germany, Italy and the UK range between minus 14.6% and minus 35.4%


8. Equity YTD return: Brazil has done better than India


9. 60% of sales for US companies come from home (means 40% comes from outside the US); for EM 67% comes from home; for Europe 44% comes from home and for Japan 50% comes from home


10. among the commodities basket, the biggest price hike in YTD is natural gas, with 85% increase


11. YTD, all asset classes have given negative returns, except commodities basket


12. 20-year annualised return (2002 to 2021) earned by the average investor is just 3.6 percent versus the 60/40 return of 7.4 percent.

 




  




 


 




 



 



 




 




 



 






 




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-------------------

Read more:  

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

 

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100