Tuesday, 9 December 2025

NSE's Backtesting Claims Child Indices Beat Parent Indices – But Does It Hold in the Real World?

NSE's Backtesting Claims Child Indices Beat Parent Indices – But Does It Hold in the Real World? 09Dec2025



 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)


 

1 Investor Interest in Smart Beta Indices and Passive Funds

In recent years, there has been a growing interest among investors in India in smart beta indices and the passive funds that track them. 

With the rise of smart beta strategies, there is now an increasing focus on alternative index strategies that aim to outperform traditional benchmarks by using factors such as value, size, momentum, quality and volatility.

Smart beta indices are designed to provide a systematic way to capture specific factors that have historically delivered higher returns than traditional market-capitalisation-weighted indices. As a result, both index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking these smart beta indices have seen a surge in popularity. 

These funds allow investors to gain exposure to these factor-based strategies without having to pick individual stocks, making it an attractive option for both retail and institutional investors. 

 

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Related articles:

Factor Investing in India: Do "Smart Beta" Indices Outperform Nifty 50 and Midcap 150? 24Nov2025

Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 Index: Has Quality Lost Its Edge? 10Aug2025

Decoding the Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50: A Midcap Strategy Built on Fundamentals 07Aug2025 

Passive Titans of India: The Top 10 Equity Indices by Fund Size 17Jul2025

India Flagship ETFs with Low Fees and Fair Trading Volumes 12Jun2025 
 
Low Expense Ratios, High Returns: Why Passive Equity Funds Matter 06Jun2025 
 
How to Buy Nifty Midcap 150 Index (passive funds) 03May2024

Analysis of Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index 12Sep2023

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2 What Are Parent and Child Indices?

In the context of smart beta and traditional market indices, "parent indices" refer to the broad-based market indices, such as the Nifty 50, BSE 500 or Nifty Midcap 150, which represent the entire market or a large portion of it. The parent indices are typically weighted by market capitalisation, meaning that the larger companies have a bigger influence on the index’s performance. 

The "child indices," on the other hand, are subsets or variations of these parent indices. Child indices are often constructed by applying specific filters or rules, such as selecting stocks based on a particular factor like low volatility or high dividend yield. Essentially, child indices are a way to segment the broader market to target specific investment characteristics and / or risk exposures.

For instance, the Nifty Midcap 150 might be considered a parent index, and a child index could be something like the Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index, which includes the 50 most momentum stocks from the Nifty Midcap 150 universe. In this case, the parent index represents the entire midcap stock market, while the child index focuses on a specific subset based on momentum.

Chart showing select Nifty indices of Parent versus Child Indices >

 


3 Do Child Indices Outperform Parent Indices in Practice?

The NSE Indices Ltd claims that, based on their backtesting of historical data, child indices most of the time outperform parent indices. NSE Indices Ltd is the index provider of Nifty indices. 

The premise behind this assertion is that child indices, by focusing on specific factors like low volatility, momentum, high dividends or value can outperform the broader market index over time.

In theory, this makes sense. If the underlying factors in a child index are systematically designed to exploit inefficiencies in the market, then they may provide higher returns than the broader market. 

For example, low-volatility stocks tend to experience less dramatic price swings, which might help mitigate losses during market downturns, potentially leading to better risk-adjusted returns.

However, while this theory may hold in some cases, the real-world performance of these child indices can be more complex. In practice, the performance of child indices often depends on the specific factors they target and how those factors perform in various market cycles.



4 Examining Funds Tracking Smart Beta Indices

(Note: In a previous blog on factor investing / smart beta investing last month, I thoroughly examined whether select "smart beta" indices outperform broad based indices, like, Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap. In the current blog, the attempt is to find out whether funds tracking smart beta child indices outperform their respective funds tracking parent indices)

To get a clearer picture of whether child indices really do outperform parent indices, it’s useful to look at some of the funds that track these smart beta strategies.

For example, consider a fund that tracks a low-volatility index (a child index) and compare it to a fund that tracks a broader market index like the Nifty 50. Over short periods, it’s possible that the low-volatility strategy could outperform the broader market, especially during periods of high market volatility. 

Conversely, during strong bull markets, the low-volatility strategy might underperform as it tends to underweight higher-growth, more volatile stocks.

Similarly, funds tracking momentum indices—child indices that emphasize stocks with strong medium term performance—could outperform in a trending market, where momentum plays a significant role. 

On the other hand, during periods of market stagnation or reversal, momentum-based strategies might underperform as the stocks driving the index may see sharp declines.

Let us see whether some of the smart beta funds have outperformed their parent indices in practice:

Example 1: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, Bandhan Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30, UTI Nifty 200 Momentum 30 and UTI Nifty 200 Quality 30 with Axis Nifty 100 Index fund tracking parent index Nifty 100.

(Note: In the absence of any passive funds based on Nifty 200, Nifty 100 is used as a proxy for Nifty 200 -- it may be noted the differences in actual returns between these two indices are small)

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >


This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year basis, while the Bandhan Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 index fund outperformed its parent index fund, Axis Nifty 100 index fund; passive child funds based on Nifty 200 Momentum 30 and Nifty 200 Quality 30 failed to beat the parent index 

>  On a 2-year basis, Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 (child) scored higher returns compared to the parent Nifty 100; while the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 (child) failed to beat the parent Nifty 100

> On a 3-year basis, both Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 (child) Nifty 200 Momentum 30 (child) have beaten the parent index Axis Nifty 100's performance

> as stated above, volatility factor tends to outperform when markets face rough weather (Indian markets have been highly volatile in the past 15 months); while momentum factor is underperforming in the past 15 months due to loss of momentum in the market 

 

The following image from Rupee Vest shows the performance of  SBI Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF (child) versus Nippon India ETF Nifty 100 (parent)

> On a 1-year, 2-year and 5-year basis, child index fund, SBI Nifty 200 Quality 30 fails to beat parent index fund, Nippon India ETF Nifty 100

> However, on a 3-year basis, child index outperformed parent index

 

Example 2: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, Tata Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum Index fund and DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 index fund with parent index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 index fund >

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >



This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year, 2-year and 3-year basis, both the child index funds, Tata Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index fund and DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 index fund underperformed the parent index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 index fund

 

Example 3: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, Nippon India Nifty 500 Momentum 50 index fund and UTI Nifty 500 Value 50 index fund; with parent index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 index fund >

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >


This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year basis, both the child indices, Nifty 500 Momentum 50 and Nifty 500 Value 50 underperformed the parent index, Nifty 500 (as stated above, Momentum factor is faring badly in the past 15 months) -- however, value factor seems to be recovering in the past six months

> on a 2-year basis, child index Nifty 500 Value 50 outperformed parent index Nifty 500 (it may recalled Value factor has done well in 2023 and 2024, though it did poorly in 2025 and 2022)

> track record for three year returns is not available for the above child index funds 

 

Example 4: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight index fund and Nippon India Nifty 50 Value 20 index fund; with parent index fund, Nippon India Nifty 50 index fund >

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >


This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 7-year basis, child index Nifty 50 Equal Weight index has consistently outperformed its parent index Nifty 50

> but child index Nifty 50 Value 20 has a mixed record; on a 3-year basis, it has delivered better returns compared to its parent Nifty 50 -- however, on a 1-year and 2-year basis, Nifty 50 Value 20 underperformed its parent Nifty 50 

 

Summary of the above four examples

One standout performance is the consistent outperformance of Nifty 50 Equal Weight over its parent Nifty 50; whereas factors, like, Low volatility, momentum and quality have shown varied performance depending on market conditions.

Nifty 50 Equal Weight has been doing well since 2020 outperforming Nifty 50 in every calendar year (2020-2025); though it underperformed Nifty 50 prior to 2020 (see chart below for data). 

As you know, Nifty 50 is market-cap weighted, meaning the largest companies by market cap (like HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and Infosys) dominate the index. The top five or 10 stocks can often make up a significant portion of the index’s overall performance.

Nifty 50 Equal Weight, on the other hand, gives the same weight to all 50 stocks, meaning no single stock has an oversized influence on the performance. This creates more balanced exposure across the index, mitigating the risk of heavy concentration in a few large-cap stocks. 

During the half-yearly rebalancing time (March and September), each stock will be adjusted to a weight of nearly 2 per cent each in the Nifty 50 Equal Weight index.  

There is no guarantee Nifty 50 Equal weight will continue to deliver superior performance versus Nifty 50. 

The Nifty 50 Equal Weight index outperformed Nifty 50 during periods when mid-cap and small-cap stocks experienced strong growth, particularly in 2024, 2023 and 2021, which were recovery years post-pandemic.

This reinforces the importance of market conditions when deciding between market-cap weighted indices and Equal Weight strategies. 

What would cause Nifty 50 Equal Weight to underperform Nifty 50? 

The Nifty 50 Equal Weight index underperforms when the market rally becomes narrow and heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap stocks. This is because the traditional Nifty 50 is dominated by its top 5-10 stocks (like Financials and certain IT/Oil & Gas heavyweights), which disproportionately drive returns during periods of market polarisation. 

Furthermore, the Nifty 50 Equal Weight's inherent value / contrarian tilt—by selling winners to rebalance—works against it when market momentum is firmly with the mega-cap stocks. Lastly, its higher exposure to relatively smaller, often more volatile, Nifty 50 constituents can also lead to deeper cuts during market corrections. 

Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Calendar year returns of select "smart beta" indices versus Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150 (see previous blog for more) >




5 Conclusion 

The idea that child indices can outperform parent indices is intriguing, and there is evidence to suggest that, in some market conditions, these factor-based indices can deliver superior returns. However, it’s important for investors to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future results.

In practice, child indices do not always outperform parent indices, and it’s crucial to take a holistic view of the market, including risk considerations and long-term investment objectives, when evaluating such strategies.

In India, the track record for smart beta funds and passive funds based on smart beta indices is still relatively short, with several funds having only three to five years of performance data.

While backtesting shows that child indices often outperform their parent indices, real-world performance hasn’t always lived up to these expectations.

Even the asset size of smart beta passive funds is smaller compared to passive funds based on Nifty 50 or Nifty Midcap 150 (for more, see blog on passive titans of India discussing asset size)

In practice, many smart beta funds struggle to deliver superior returns compared to traditional passive funds that track broad market indices. This discrepancy highlights the challenges of translating historical data-driven strategies into consistent real-world success.

Ultimately, the performance of child indices relative to parent indices varies depending on the market environment, time horizon and the specific factors the child indices focus on. While there are instances where child indices outperform, there are also periods when the broader market (parent indices) may perform better.

  

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References:
 

Tweet 02Mar2025 The Baloney of Smart Beta Indices

Nifty Return Profile (strategy indices) 

NSE Index dashboard monthly 

NSE Index dashboard archives 

NSE Indices Research Papers / working papers 

Nifty Indices factsheets  

Methodology document for Nifty indices, including smart beta indices 

Screenshot of returns of Nifty 50 versus Nifty 50 Equal Weight from 2000 to 2020 > source Nifty 50 Equal Weight whitepaper 24Feb2021 >


 

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Sunday, 7 December 2025

India’s Dangerous Drift Toward Market Concentration and Corporate Power

India’s Dangerous Drift Toward Market Concentration and Corporate Power 07Dec025



 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)


 



In the first week of Dec2025, 
IndiGo Airlines (InterGlobe Aviation) cancelled hundreds of flights across India — at one point over a thousand in a few days — after failing to staff enough pilots under stricter duty‑time rules, leaving thousands of passengers stranded. Because IndiGo controls roughly 60–65 per cent of domestic air traffic, the disruption effectively crippled much of India’s civil‑aviation network. 

Under pressure, the government and the regulator DGCA granted IndiGo a temporary exemption from the tighter pilot rest and night‑duty norms — postponing enforcement till Feb2026. 

That episode illustrates how a virtual duoopoly (or a near‑monopoly) in a critical sector can force regulatory roll‑backs, showing how concentrated market power undermines both reliability and regulatory discipline.

That disruption is not just an isolated operational hiccup; it is a vivid example of how India’s concentrated corporate landscape — dominated by a few giant players in critical sectors — shapes policy, limits competition and ultimately affects everyday consumers.

 

Corporate power 

It has now become impossible to ignore: India’s economy is increasingly dominated by a handful of giant conglomerates and corporate groups; and a small set of large digital platforms. Market after market inevitably ends up with a monopoly, a duopoly or at best a tight oligopoly. Sometimes this happens because of natural economics like high fixed costs or network effects. 

But often it happens because of policy choices, regulatory capture or weak competition enforcement.

Economists like Viral Acharya saw this coming years ago. He warned that India’s “big five” business groups were gaining too much market power and that this concentration would ultimately suppress competition and hurt long-term growth. 

His main point was simple: profits grow for the big firms, but overall private investment and innovation slow down. The economy becomes top-heavy, not broad-based.

The Big-5 conglomerates in India identified by Acharya are  Reliance (Mukesh Ambani) Group, Tata Group, Aditya Birla Group, Adani Group and Bharti Airtel Group. The share of these "big five" conglomerates in India in total assets of non-financial sectors rose from 10 per cent in 1991 to nearly 18 per cent in 2021, wrote Acharya in his paper. 

They "grew not just at the expense of the smallest firms, but also of the next largest firms", said Mr Acharya, because the share in total assets of the next five business groups halved from 18 per cent to 9 per cent during this period. 

You don’t need an economics degree to see what he meant. Just look around at everyday sectors.

Due mainly to deleterious effects of Demonetisation, GST and COVID-19, informal sector has been shrinking in India; while the the formal corporate sector / India Inc has been growing. Pronab Sen, former chief statistician has been harping on this point for several years.  

 

High Cost of Capital and Inflation

India’s cost of capital has remained high for years and cumulative inflation has been elevated. This combination quietly kills smaller firms. They either die out or get acquired, leaving only a few big players with the financial muscle to survive bad cycles. 

India's low inflation prints in recent months and 125 basis point Repo rate cut by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this year should have brought down India's cost of capital, but cost of capital is not coming down, especially for small- and medium-sized firms. 

High interest rates and a risk-averse banking system make it almost impossible for new entrants to scale in capital-intensive sectors.

India's banking regulator RBI and Govt of India have aided oligopoly behaviour in the banking sector by not giving new banking licenses for a long period of time.



Regulatory Capture and Policy Tilt

The other part of the story is how government rules, spectrum licenses, auctions and approvals often tilt the playing field toward the largest conglomerates. Whether intentionally or accidentally, policies in key areas like telecom, airports, power distribution, mining and digital markets often end up favoring incumbents or politically close corporate houses. Over time, this reinforces dominance.

Crony capitalism: The doubling of quality control orders (QCOs) by Govt of India in the past three years also resulted in increasing market power of Reliance Industries in polyester fibre and dominance of Aditya Birla group (Grasim Industries) in viscose stable fibre.  After the pressure from 50% US tariffs on Indian goods, the government is quietly rolling down many of these QCOs. 



Sector by Sector: A Country of Duopolies and Monopolies 



Telecom (mobile telephony) is now basically Airtel and Reliance Jio. Vodafone Idea is a shadow, surviving* but irrelevant. This didn’t happen naturally. Jio’s predatory pricing and the government’s tolerance of it during the first few years effectively wiped out a dozen competitors. Once the competition died, tariffs began rising again. This is a classic textbook case of how market power forms.

(* Airtel's Sunil Mittal derisively described Vodafone Idea as a half player saying Indian telecom market is a two and a half player market)

Power distribution is dominated by Tata Power and Adani Electricity wherever privatisation has happened. These are sectors where new entry is nearly impossible because of regulatory hurdles and capital intensity.

Online food delivery is an airtight duopoly: Zomato and Swiggy. A decade-long cash-burn war ensured that no one else could stand. 
 

In India's civil aviation sector, IndiGo dominates domestic skies, with Air India the only meaningful alternative. SpiceJet is stuggling. Everyone else has died or merged.

Airports? After the last major privatisation round, most large airports are now run by either Adani group or GMR group. That’s it.

Cement and steel behave like old-fashioned cartels. Prices move in parallel. Capacity is coordinated. Consumers pay more — it’s that simple. In addition, the steel sector in India is protected by the government (trade protectionism), to an extent, by import tariffs and safeguard duties.

Cinemas have PVR Inox Ltd, basically one company after the merger. Soft drinks are Pepsi and Coca-Cola (Camap Cola with help from Reliance Industries is trying to make a comeback). Taxi rides are Ola and Uber. Digital ads are Google and Meta. E-commerce is Amazon and Flipkart. 

Stock exchanges are NSE and BSE, with NSE being a near monopoly in volumes. DTH is effectively just Tata Play and Airtel Digital. Even in UPI payments, where India loves to claim “world-leading competition,” the reality is that PhonePe and Google Pay control the lion’s share.

And power trading? IEX or Indian Energy Exchange is practically a monopoly. PXIL and HPEX are mere footnotes. The IEX controls almost the entire short-term power market.

Quick Commerce: Blinkit, Instamart and Zepto

The newest addition to India’s oligopoly story is quick commerce. Blinkit (backed by Eternal Ltd, formerly Zomato Ltd) is the runaway leader. Instamart (Swiggy) is second. Zepto is a distant third. First mover Dunzo collapsed. As always, the sector started with a frenzy of new players, but within a couple of years became a three-player market already drifting toward a duopoly.

This is because quick commerce is insanely capital-intensive, heavily reliant on dense networks of dark stores, low margins and fast delivery fleets. Only companies with huge balance sheets can survive. Blinkit leverages Eternal Ltd’s cash and public markets. Instamart leans on Swiggy’s capital. Zepto burns venture capital funding. Everyone else disappeared.

Media Capture and Conglomerate Power

The media landscape mirrors the economy. The Times Group (Sahu Jain family), Network18 (Reliance Industries), Zee (Subhash Chandra's Essel group), India Today (Aditya Birla group), NDTV group (controlled by Adanis) and Hindustan Times (controlled by Shobhana Bhartia, daughter of 
late KK Birla) are almost entirely owned by big business families and conglomerates. This reinforces the cycle of concentration: economic power feeds into media power, which feeds into political power, which feeds back into economic advantage.


The Curious Case of Public Sector Monopolies

But here’s a twist. Some of India’s remaining monopolies — Indian Railways, India Post, IRCTC, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) — do not behave exploitatively. They have political and social mandates that force them to keep prices stable or even subsidised. Railways does not gouge passengers (but Tatkal and Premium Tatkal services are a scam). India Post does not overcharge. 

These public monopolies show that monopolies per se are not always harmful. What matters is the incentive structure and public accountability. But some of these public sector monopolies are inefficient is a different matter.

In Nov2024, opposition leader Rahul Gandhi wrote an op‑ed in The Indian Express accusing a new breed of monopolists of using government influence to crush competition and enrich themselves, while clarifying he is “not anti‑business, but anti‑monopoly/oligopoly,” and advocating fair space for all businesses. 

 



Oligopolies (a handful of dominant sellers)

An oligopoly is a market structure in which a small number of large firms have the majority of the market share. Firms are mutually interdependent and competition is often non-price based (for example, quality, advertising, services).

Automobiles: Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra are dominant. While many brands exist, these few players dominate sales volumes in the passenger vehicle segment.

Cement: UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements / ACC (Adani Cement) and Shree Cement rule the roost. The market is controlled by a few companies that collectively dictate output and pricing. Moreover, the sector is undergoing consolidation.

Media & Entertainment: Reliance Industries' JioHotstar is leading here. It wants to dominate the OTT (over the top) and VOD (video on demand) segments with its aggressive growth / acquisition strategy. Other rivals in this sector are Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and SonyLIV. This sector is fast turning into an oligopoly.   

Even ports sector looks like an oligopoly. Several major ports in India are controlled by Govt of India. But in the private sector, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd is trying to dominate with more than 25 per cent market share. Multi-national corporations, like,  DP World, PSA International (Singapore) and APM Terminals (Maersk) have market concentration in Indian ports sector. 


Why the Concentration Problem Matters

What Acharya argued — and what India is now experiencing — is that concentration undermines the competitive process. When five or six conglomerates dominate most important sectors, smaller firms can’t grow. Innovation slows down. The economy becomes dependent on a few giants. 

The banking system becomes overexposed to them. The stock market becomes over-reliant on a handful of companies. And long-run growth becomes fragile.

India’s policymakers occasionally celebrate “national champions,” but the hidden cost is a weaker competitive ecosystem. True growth comes from broad participation, not from a few giants and their satellites.

The story of monopoly and duopoly capitalism in India isn’t a secret anymore. It’s visible in every bill you pay, every app you use, every product you buy, every service you depend on. And unless policy changes, the next decade will see this concentration deepen even further — until India’s economy resembles a set of private empires instead of an open, competitive marketplace.

 

Implications of Market Power for Indian Equity Investors

India’s market power concentration in monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies creates distinct risks and rewards for equity investors. The risks include concentration risk, as dominant firms like Tatas, Adanis and Reliance heavily influence equity indices, posing outsized risks if disrupted.  

This entails regulatory risk also, since profitability often relies on favorable policies that can change suddenly; and systemic fragility, where shocks to key monopolies could lead to sector-wide cascading effects. 

On the rewards side, dominant firms offer stable earnings with steady cash flow and predictable profits, though growth may be capped. Digital duopolies benefit from strong network effects that help maintain long-term dominance and returns. These firms also often receive higher valuations due to barriers to entry and sustained pricing power.

In summary, Indian stock investors benefit from the stability and growth potential of dominant firms but need to manage risks related to concentration, regulatory dependence and systemic vulnerabilities by maintaining portfolio diversification.

 

Concluding Remarks and Solutions

The IndiGo disruption and the broader pattern of monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies in India show how concentrated market power can affect everyday life, policy and the economy. While large firms offer stability and scale, their dominance often stifles competition, innovation and fair pricing. Equity investors benefit from predictable earnings but face hidden concentration and regulatory risks. 

Indian mobile users today are paying three to four times more for their mobile plans than they did just five years ago.

To restore balance, the government must enforce stricter competition laws and reduce regulatory favoritism toward dominant players. Encouraging smaller firms through easier access to capital, fair licensing and infrastructure support can help diversify markets. Transparency in auctions, public procurement and sectoral policy is essential to prevent implicit “match-fixing” between regulators and conglomerates. 

Consumers, too, must be aware of the limited choices and push for accountability through public discourse and advocacy. Ultimately, India’s long-term growth depends on creating an ecosystem where competition thrives alongside responsible corporate governance, not just where a few giants dictate terms.

If Viral Acharya was early to ring the alarm bell, today the bell is screaming corporate power.

 

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References:

Tweet 23Mar2025 High cost of capital, regulatory capture, monopolies and duopolies

Tweet 09Jul2024 Market power and market concentration;  Herfindahl Hirschman Index

Rahul Gandhi on match-fixing monopoly and fairplay business

Viral Acharya Mar2023 paper on Big 5 Conglomerates with market power

Tweet 20Nov2025 doubling of QCOs or quality control orders helping Reliance Industries and Grasim Industries  

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Read more:
 
Blog of Blogs Theme-wise 
 
Weblinks and Investing
 
India Fixed Income Data Bank
 
Indian Economy Data Bank 

India Forex Data Bank 
 
Corporate Groups and Listed Companies 29Dec2024
 
Corporate Governance Concerns - Indian Companies 13Dec2024
 
Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry 16Feb2024  
 
various uploads on Scribd by VRK100  
 
 
Does a Falling Rupee Hurt Indian Stocks? The Data Say "Not Really" 
 
Investing for Real People: Thumb Rules, Long-Term Thinking and Practical Wisdom 27Nov2025
 
Factor Investing in India: Do "Smart Beta" Indices Outsmart Nifty 50 and Midcap 150? 24Nov2025
 
Redefining Ownership: 12 New Indian Companies Join Zero Promoter Holding List Since 2023 09Nov2025
 
India's External Debt Metrics: Quiet Strength Beneath the Surface 06Oct2025 

Goodbye MIBOR, Hello SORR: Understanding RBI's New Interest Rate Benchmark 04Oct2025

Jane Goodall: What Separates Us From Chimpanzees 02Oct2025 

The Building Blocks of India's Money Market: Key Segments You Should Know 30Sep2025 

The Optimism Bubble of the Indian Mutual Fund Ecosystem 24Sep2025

RBI's LAF Corridor Simplified: SDF, MSF & All That Jazz 23Sep2025

A Layperson's Look at India's Complicated Tax Rules on Share Buybacks 16Sep2025 

Equity Raise After 12 Years: Should Shareholders of Asahi India Glass Be Worried? 16Sep2025 

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Disclosure:  I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
 
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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Tuesday, 2 December 2025

Does a Falling Rupee Hurt Indian Stocks? The Data Say “Not Really”

Does a Falling Rupee Hurt Indian Stocks? The Data Say “Not Really” 02Dec2025



 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)


 

There have been concerns among financial market participants in India about the falling rupee, especially against the US dollar. Year-to-date, he US dollar has gained 4.5 per cent in relation to Indian rupee. Conversely, rupee lost 4.3 per cent of its value versus the dollar. 

Today, the rupee touched 90 against the dollar before closing at 89.97. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been pulling money from Indian equity market this year putting pressure on rupee. Despite heavy RBI forex intervention, rupee has declined this year. 

In the current financial year, RBI net sold US dollars worth USD 21.7 billion to defend the rupee. 

The uncertainty surrounding a favourable trade deal with the US is causing problems for rupee. The 50% US tariffs, imposed by US president Trump, on Indian goods has complicated matters with exports to the US declining sharply in the past five months. Export growth is weak overall.

The uncertainty compounded further by the unfair demand of the Trump administration of the US insisting India end its crude oil purchases from Russia. India has been importing crude oil at cheaper rates from Russia, protecting its national interests and rightly so, since the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war in Mar2022. 

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into India have declined over the past three to four years. In the current financial year, there was some rebound as per latest RBI data released a few days ago. Net FDI inflows increased to USD 7.7 billion in first half of FY 2025-26 from USD 3.4 billion in first half of 2024-25.

Global risk aversion and India's elevated trade deficit / current account deficit too have contributed to rupee weakness.  

However, Indian economy overall is well placed for good economic growth in the next two years. CPI inflation is under control. Economic growth is robust as per official numbers despite International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressing its concerns on data accuracy of India GDP numbers. 

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced interest rates substantially this year. GST tax cuts were effected in Sep2025. Income tax rates too have come down in the Feb2025 Union Budget. These are expected to boost domestic consumption, though high household debt is a concern. 

 

Dollar Rupee Exchange Rate Dynamics and Nifty 50 Drivers  


The relationship between the USD–INR exchange rate and Nifty 50 Total Returns Index (TRI) looks simple on the surface, but the reality is far more nuanced. Many investors assume that if the rupee weakens, Indian equities should fall, or that a stronger rupee must translate into better stock market performance. 

But when you look at the data and the mechanics behind both markets, the link turns out to be surprisingly loose (see chart below for data from 2010 to 2025).

A good starting point is understanding that the USD–INR exchange rate is influenced mostly by global forces. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, global risk appetite, crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, the degree of RBI intervention in foreign exchange market and foreign portfolio investor flows all push and pull the rupee. 

Many of these drivers have very little to do with India’s internal economic performance or corporate earnings. Sometimes the rupee weakens sharply even when India’s growth outlook is perfectly healthy, simply because global investors are rushing into the US dollar as a safe haven.

On the other hand, Nifty 50 TRI is driven primarily by domestic fundamentals. Corporate earnings growth, government reforms, domestic liquidity from Indian mutual funds and pension funds, credit cycles and sector-specific stories play a far larger role than global currency movements.

Any way, a variety of factors influence asset prices and currency movements. It's naive to attribute their movements to one or two factors alone.  

The share of domestic investors in Indian equities (see blog on ownership trends) has risen dramatically in the past decade, which means the stock indices are no longer as dependent on foreign money as it used to be. 

There are also structural differences inside the Nifty 50 index itself. Export-heavy sectors like IT services and pharmaceuticals actually benefit from a weaker rupee because their overseas revenues translate into higher profits in rupee terms. 

But banks, consumer companies and infrastructure players do not share this benefit. When the rupee moves, the impact is uneven across the index; the gainers and losers may often cancel each other out. That dampens any clean-cut correlation at the index level.

This is why, when you look at long-run data, the correlation between Nifty 50 TRI and USD–INR movements is not only weak but also inconsistent. In some years the rupee weakens and the Nifty shoots up, usually because domestic fundamentals are strong or liquidity is abundant. 

In other years the rupee strengthens and equities also rally, usually when foreign investors are returning after a risk-off period. And occasionally, both move in opposite directions. The pattern shifts depending on whether global or domestic forces are in the driver's seat in that particular year.

Another complication is that both Nifty and USD–INR move every minute, but investors often look at annual returns. When you compress 250 trading days of volatility into a single yearly figure, you hide the short-term relationships that might exist during moments of stress or exuberance. 

For instance, during global risk-off episodes, the rupee tends to weaken sharply while the Nifty may correct at the same time—but this may last only a few months or quarters and completely disappear in the final annual numbers. 

Perhaps the most important point is that India’s markets have matured. A decade ago, rupee movements and foreign investor flows had a strong influence on market direction. 

Today, thanks to steady domestic inflows through EPFO investments, large growth in retail investors' demat accounts and retail monthly flows into mutual funds, India is less vulnerable to sudden FPI withdrawals. The rupee may weaken, but that doesn’t automatically trigger a sustained equity selloff the way it once did.

So what does all this mean for an everyday investor trying to make sense of the USD–INR and the stock market? It means that trying to predict Nifty levels based on currency movements is a shaky strategy. 

The two markets touch each other at specific moments—especially during crises or when global rates change—but they do not march together in any predictable long-term rhythm. 

Take for example, the year 2011: The INR underwent a huge depreciation, with the dollar gaining 18.9 per cent for the year. And Nifty 50 lost 23.8 per cent. The year 2011 was plagued by policy paralysis on the part of the UPA government, high inflation rates, slowing economic growth, steep rupee fall and interest rate increases by RBI.  

The rupee is more indicative of global conditions; the Nifty is more likely reflective of Indian corporate health and overall domestic economic conditions. 

Understanding both helps, but treating them as tightly linked can create misleading expectations. A weakening rupee is not the end of the world for the stock market, and a strengthening rupee is not a guarantee of a bull run. 

Investors are better off focusing on corporate earnings, valuations, domestic liquidity and economic policy rather than trying to read too much into day-to-day currency swings. In the long run, markets reward earnings power more than exchange rate volatility.

 

Observations from the below chart  

Looking at the 16-year observations, the relationship between NIFTY 50 TRI and USD-INR movement does not show a strong or stable correlation—neither consistently positive nor negative.

Years when INR weakened mildly (USD gained) and NIFTY 50 rose:

There are many years where INR weakens yet Nifty rises, suggesting no negative correlation. For instance, in 2020, USD gained 2.5% (rupee fell), but Nifty 50 delivered a total return (including dividends) as high as 16.1%. And in 2016, USD gained 2.5%, but Nifty 50 return was just 4.4%.


Year USD % gain vs INR NIFTY 50 TRI % Comment
       
2021 1.7 25.6 Both strong
2020 2.5 16.1 Covid recovery, FPI inflows
2019 2.1 13.5 Both up
2016 2.5 4.4 Mild positive
2012 2.9 29.4 Both strong

 

Years when INR fell sharply (USD gained) and still Nifty 50 delivered decent returns  

Take 2025 for example, even though dollar appreciated 4.5% (sharp 4.3% rupee fall) year to date, Nifty 50 still managed a total return of 12.1% indicating low correlation between USD-INR movement and Nifty.  That Nifty 50 underperformed other emerging markets in 2025 is a different issue. 

In 2022, USD rose by 11.4% vs INR (due mainly to global uncertainty surrounding Russia-Ukraine war, a strong dollar and the US Fed raising interest rates sharply), but still Nifty 50 ended with a positive return of 5.7%. And in 2018 and 2013 too, the same phenomenon repeated (see chart below). 


Years when USD fell (INR strengthened) but NIFTY rose

In 2017, dollar depreciated 5.9% versus rupee, but still Nifty 50 delivered robust returns of 30.3%. And in year 2010 too, Nifty 50 delivered double-digit gains though rupee gained (USD fell). And those two years (2010 and 2017) are perfect examples of why the Nifty–rupee relationship is weak and inconsistent.

A stronger rupee does not automatically drag the Nifty down, because the Nifty’s performance is dominated by domestic fundamentals and sector mix, not just exchange rate movements. 

 

Overall, no reliable correlation exists between NIFTY 50 TRI and USD-INR exchange rate movement.

Neither positive nor negative correlations hold consistently over time. 

Chart showing Nifty 50 calendar year returns versus USD-INR yearly gain / loss (data for India gold price and USD gold price are included as additional information) >

Data from 2010 to 2016 >

USD-INR yearly gain / loss
Exchange rate yearly gain / loss
US dollar - Indian rupee yearly gain / loss 



 

Shortcomings of the above analysis

One important limitation to keep in mind is that the dataset often used for this comparison—roughly 16 years of annual Nifty TRI and USD–INR changes—is simply too small to draw firm statistical conclusions. Sixteen points of annual data can easily be distorted by a few unusual years, like global crises or pandemic recoveries. 

When the sample is this tiny, it’s hard to tell whether a pattern is real or just a product of chance. Markets move every day, currencies move every hour, but an annual snapshot compresses all that activity into just one number per year.

Another issue is that India’s market structure, investor base and economic environment have changed dramatically over those 16 years. Domestic mutual fund flows today are far stronger than they were in the period 2010 to 2016. 

The Nifty’s sector weights have shifted, with banks and other financials playing a much bigger role than export-heavy sectors. The RBI’s approach to currency management has also evolved. 

When you mix together data from such different eras (regime change), any correlation you calculate becomes less meaningful because the underlying ecosystem isn’t consistent. This makes the “sample” not just small, but structurally uneven—another reason to treat long-term annual comparisons with caution.

One could have drawn more powerful conclusions had one used monthly data of Nifty and rupee stretching over 25 years or even longer, but that is outside the scope of this educational / informative article for the general reader. 

 

What could help the rupee gain or stabilise versus the dollar?

Any future announcement of an India-US trade deal, where the tariffs are likely to be cut to 25% or even 20%, is likely a positive for rupee.

The talks between the US and Russia seem to be positive to end the Russia-Ukraine war, according to the media reports. The end of the war could lead to a stable rupee.  

However, the market is expecting a repo rate cut by RBI during the coming MPC (monetary policy committee) meet next Friday. It remains to be seen how the rupee will react to the rate cut, because rate cuts generally put pressure on domestic currency, assuming other things remain the same. 

Any return of FPIs to the Indian stock market may lead to rupee appreciation. It is worth noting year to date FPI outflows from Indian equity market total Rs 1.48 lakh crore.  

If the Indian government were to implement any bold economic reforms (a remote possibility in my humble opinion), Indian rupee may strengthen in the immediate period. 

 

To sum up

A falling or rising rupee may make headlines, but it rarely tells the full story of how Indian stocks will behave. The data show that the Nifty often moves to its own rhythm, driven more by domestic fundamentals than currency swings. 

While extreme currency moves can influence sentiment or certain sectors, they don’t define long-term equity returns. For most investors, focusing on earnings, valuations and economic trends matters far more than tracking daily noise in the exchange rate.

 

- - - 

 

 

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References:

Nifty Indices research papers 

Nifty 50 whitepaper 19Jun2024  

Nifty Indices factsheets

Indian Economy Data Bank 

India Forex Data Bank 

India Fixed Income Data Bank  

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Disclosure:  I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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