Best Value For Your Money from RamaKrishnaVadlamudi

Friday 1 November 2024

JP Morgan Guide to Markets 30Sep2024

JP Morgan Guide to Markets 30Sep2024

(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

JP Morgan Asset Management publishes a comprehensive presentation every month end, containing various slides on global markets, especially those relating to the US markets.

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This is a very useful and informative guide for financial market professionals or FMPs. This "JP Morgan Guide to the Markets" can be accessed here. The following are some of the highlights / images presented in this guide: all the data are at the end of 30Sep2024:

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Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise

Weblinks and Investing

India Fixed Income Data Bank

Indian Economy Data Bank

India Forex Data Bank

Wars and Wealth Protection

NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 30Sep2024

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 30Sep2024

Primer on Global Capability Centres - India is World's GCC Capital

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jul2024

Cera Sanitaryware Buyback Offer 2024

Arbitrage Funds and Avenues

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jun2024

Rapid Growth is Assets of India's MF Industry

Mutual Fund Categories with Similar Returns

Side Pocketing Episode of Aditya Birla SL Dynamic Bond Fund

Crux of Kotak Debt Hybrid Fund

Global Market Data 30Jun2024

Brief History of India's 1991 Forex Crisis and Gold Pledge

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Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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Thursday 24 October 2024

Wars and Wealth Protection

Wars and Wealth Protection

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A friend in India recently asked me: “If a world war were to occur, how should one prepare to reshape one’s assets in order to protect oneself and their family?”

This is my response to the above question:

24Oct2024:

This is an extraordinary question: “If a world war were to occur, how should one prepare to reshape one’s assets in order to protect oneself and their family?”

Nobody can remain immune from wars and its effects. Wars affect each and everyone. Of course, in different ways.

The closest example we’ve got is how Germany was destroyed during the First and Second World Wars. It’ll be worthwhile to study how the wars impacted vast populations between 1914 and 1945.

Some Germans / Europeans were smart enough to leave Germany / Europe before and during the World War II. But they are only a tiny part of the total German / European population. Some anticipated the horrors of Hitler and the Holocaust and left Europe.

During wars, everything will be controlled – price controls, export controls, import controls, controls on foreign money transfers and others.

You could study how the families of Europeans, like, those of George Soros and Sam Zell, who escaped from their countries to the US and became immigrant success stories in the US. Even many German scientists escaped, prior to and during World War II, from Germany and helped the US build its atomic bomb (Manhattan Project) beating Hitler to it.

A few sectors of the economy will be booming – for example, defence production, war machinery, automobiles and war supplies. But many sectors of the economy are likely to be impacted negatively.

Governments will confiscate the wealth of the wealthy families. Wars may lead to hyperinflation. Hyperinflation will destroy the middle classes too. Their savings and insurance policies will become worthless due to inflation.

Prior to 2022, Russian oligarchs thought their money would be safe in the US and Europe. But the US and European governments illegally confiscated the assets (remember yachts?) of Russian oligarchs. And they illegally froze foreign exchange reserves of Russia. SWIFT transactions were banned in Russia.

That’s why Chinese and Russian central banks have been moving their forex reserves away from the arms of the West (de-dollarisation).

Inflation destroys the purchasing power of one’s money.

In a 2009 blog, I wrote:

“If inflation goes up to 100 or 3000 per cent, the best bet would be to own a field of ten acres of arable land by a family of ten people or even more near a perennial river. So that all family members can toil and till the fields with their own labour and grow crops organically without depending on outside world for any fertilisers, insecticides, etc. I think that's the BEST CASE SCENARIO if you want to be immune from inflation!”

Who did well in Germany during World War II? It’s the farmers. They had been producing agricultural commodities, relatively unimpacted by the ravages of war. Their land prices remained high. German farmers hoarded their produce which was only going up in value.

In contrast, the wage earners had been losing the purchasing power of their wage earnings very fast. Inflation has gone up to gigantic proportions in Germany. One practical example: You go to a restaurant with your family, you order your dinner and by the time your order is served, the cost of your dinner has already gone up by 20 per cent!

From my blog of 2024:

“In late 1923, a loaf of bread in Germany was costing around 200 billion marks -- yes, you read it right, it was 200,000,000,000 marks.

“People literally had to carry a cartload of money to buy a loaf of bread in Germany in 1923.”

In wars, the poor have nothing to lose because they are already poor. Of course, they too will be impacted because food supply will become scarce. Remember how Venezuelans, a few years ago, escaped Maduro’s dictatorship and walked thousands of miles to the Mexico-US border?

Young workers will be forced to join the military (conscription). This means production of non-defence sectors will be impacted negatively.

Governments ration everything and commodities and goods will become scarce.

Jobs will be lost in entire sectors of the economy.

During wars, people tend to ration and save more – leading to lower economic growth. This is a cascading effect on entire sectors of the economy. Imagine employees in India’s information technology sector resorting to saving more and not spending their money!

Governments will be forced to issue more government bonds and print more money – leading to episodes of high inflation. With high inflation, bonds lose their value rapidly.

Global supply chains will be affected adversely during wars, as has happened during the initial phase of Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Which means prices of all commodities and goods will shoot up during wars.

Several rich Indians liberally use RBI’s liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) and stash their assets abroad, especially in the US and select European countries – of course, legally. Some do it via illegal Hawala transactions. Some Indian companies illegally transfer money abroad via manipulation of export and import invoices.

As you know, the biggest threat for India is China. China in 2020 already occupied a thousand square kilometres of Indian land at Galwan Valley, Ladakh (very strategic and vantage point). The shepherds in the region know this, but PM Modi government is silent on this Chinese occupation.

China has been belligerent in the South China Sea and they are already creating problems for the Philippines, Taiwan and others. They may threaten India also at some point of time in future. At this point of time, the probability of China and India going to war is about 10 to 15 per cent, in my opinion.

There are some bunkers in the Swiss alps where the uber rich keep their physical gold bullion. These bunkers are so strong, they are immune from earthquakes and nuclear wars. Only people with billions of dollars can use such facilities. Obviously.

In wars, people become extraordinarily cooperative. They create networks to help one another. This happened during the Second World War. They used creative ways to move people and money abroad.

Gazans have built a network of tunnels to escape from Israeli assault and curbs on people’s movements.

There are a lot of books on Germany’s hyperinflation and how wars impacted ordinary lives in other parts of the world. You could also try YouTube, streaming apps and ChatGPT for more on this.

In summary:

It’s hard to protect oneself from wealth destruction during wars. However, it’s better to brace oneself for wars.

If you’re a wealthy Indian with at least Rs 100 crore of net worth (assets minus liabilities), you should diversify your assets abroad. You should keep some of your assets in safe currencies, like, the US dollar and Swiss franc.

Stocks of quality companies will do well once the war is over. Quality companies, I mean, with zero debt, high corporate governance, low volatility, good tangible assets and intangible assets (proprietary technology, big patents, solid brands and others) are likely to bounce back after the war, though they too will be impacted during wars.

Bonds will become worthless – for example, as has happened during WW II and during the American Civil War.

Gold, crude oil and crypto currencies, like, Bitcoin might do well in wars. Certain agricultural commodities too may do well. Real estate in safer countries and regions is likely to do well.

The US dollar and Swiss franc generally do well in wars, because investors want to escape to safety.

You can practice hunger strike and increase your body’s resilience to hunger as they do in Ramzan. In a practical sense too, we are better off if we embrace minimalism and live on with fewer things, like monks. Reading Seneca and stoicism may help.

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References:

Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations by Jens O. Parsson

Am I Being Too Subtle by Sam Zell

Soros: The Life and Times of a Messianic Billionaire by Michael Kaufman

Tuesday 22 October 2024

NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 30Sep2024

NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 30Sep2024

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This is an update of earlier blog named 'NSE Emerging Indices Comparison 31Mar2024' dated 30Apr2024. Please see this blog to know more about how these indices are constructed.

Today's blog explores how NSE's emerging indices, namely, Nifty Next 50, Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 are doing in comparison to Nifty 500. The latest data are as of 30th of September, 2024.

NSE or National Stock Exchange of India Limited is a premier stock exchange in India, closely followed by BSE Limited.

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Related blogs on Indian Stock Indices:

Sensex versus Gold Price 29May2024

The Little Secret Behind Nifty Next 50 Index's Recent Success 13May2024

NSE Indices Calendar Year Returns 2006 to 2004 05May2024

How to Buy Nifty Midcap 150 Index 03May2024

India Passive Funds and Their Asset Size 29Apr2024

Understanding Real Sensex and Currency Debasement 14Mar2024

Equity ETFs and Equity Index Funds Compared 05Feb2024

Nifty 50 Index Yearly Movement 31Dec2023

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Indices Compare 31Dec2023

NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2023

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement 31Mar2023

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Compare 31Mar2023

Nifty 50 Index Yearly Movement 31Dec2022

NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2022

BSE 500 versus S&P 500 Comparison 31Dec2022

Nifty 50 Index quarterly movement Jun2022

Nifty 50 Index quarterly movement Apr2022

Nifty 50 Index Evolution 2011 to 2021

NSE Indices Comparison 31Dec2021

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2. NSE Emerging Indices Comparison

Nifty Indices Limited is the index provider for NSE.

3. Fundamentals

Table 1 presents the returns, risks and valuation measures of four indices, namely, Nifty 500, Nifty Next 50, Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 (all data as of 30Sep2024) >

Please click on the image to view better >

On a year-to-date and one-year basis, Nifty Next 50 has provided the best return of 45 and 72 per cent respectively, though on a 5-year basis, Nifty Smallcap 250 has delivered the best of the four indices analysed.

Based on the risk measures of standard deviation and beta, Nifty Next 50 and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices are the most volatile indices.

On a trailing 12-month data of valuation measures, Nifty Midcap 150 is the most expensive -- with the highest price-earnings and price-to-book value and the lowest dividend yield.

4. Top 15 Stocks

Tables 2 and 3 show the share of top five and top 10 stocks in the indices and list out top 15 stocks in the indices as on 30Sep2024.

Please click on the image to view better >

Of the four indices, Nifty 500 and Nifty Next 50 are having higher concentration risk compared to Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250. The share of top 5 and 10 stocks in Nifty 500 is 22 and 32 per cent respectively; whereas for Nifty Next 50, they are at 20 and 36 per cent respectively.

5. Top 10 Sectors

Tables 4 and 5 show the weights of top three and five sectors in these NSE indices as on 30Sep2024.

Please click on the image to view better >

In terms of exposure of the indices to top three and five sectors, Nifty Next 50 index is having the least concentration risk -- with share of top three and five sectors at 41 and 56 per cent respectively.

Summary

If you compare the data as of 31Mar2024 and 30Sep2024, these four indices have become more expensive when you compare them on the metrics of P/E ratio, P/B ratio and dividend yield.

Concentration of top five and 10 stocks has fallen slightly for Nifty 500 in the last six months. In terms of the share of top three and five sectors too, concentration risk for Nifty 500 index has decreased.

But concentration of top five and 10 stocks has increased, between end of Mar2024 and Sep2024, for Nifty Next 50, Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices.

Sector concentration risk for Nifty Next 50 has fallen dramatically in the last six months -- this could be partly due to the index revision effected on 30Sep2024, when Trent and Bharat Electronics moved from Nifty Next 50 to Nifty 50 index.

In the last six months, sector concentration risk for Nifty Midcap 150 has fallen slightly, whereas for Nifty Smallcap 250, it has slightly increased.

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References and additional data:

Nifty Passive Insights Jun2024 PDF

NSE Index Methodology Document Sep2024 PDF

Check Rupee Vest MF portfolio for all stock weights

Nifty Indices - Index factsheets

Raw data >