Best Value For Your Money from RamaKrishnaVadlamudi

Thursday, 18 June 2026

Beyond Entitlement: How Tender Offer Buyback Acceptance Really Works 18Jun2026

Beyond Entitlement: How Tender Offer Buyback Acceptance Really Works 18Jun2026

(This is my 519th blog since 2010. Over the years, I have covered global financial markets, with a focus on India, and continue to share insights to help readers understand complex topics in simple language.

The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance.

Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

This article explores how acceptance is determined in Indian tender offer buybacks, with a particular focus on the "small shareholder" category.

Many investors focus on the entitlement ratio announced by the company. They calculate how many shares they are entitled to tender and assume that actual acceptance will be closely linked to that number.

In practice, that is not always the case.

Over the years, I have participated in several tender offer buybacks as a long-term shareholder. Actual acceptance can be very different from entitlement. In some cases, the number of shares accepted by the company was many times higher than my entitlement.

This raised a few questions. How is acceptance determined? Why can acceptance exceed entitlement? What role do other shareholders play in the final outcome?

This article is an attempt to understand these questions using a real example. It is not about short-term arbitrage or trading strategies. It is about understanding how tender offer buybacks work in practice from the perspective of a long-term shareholder.

(article continues below)

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Related blogs:

India’s New Buyback Tax Rules from Apr2026: What It Means for You 22Mar2026

A Layperson's Look at India's Complicated Tax Rules on Share Buybacks 16Sep2025

Negative Impact of Debt Mutual Fund Tax Changes (including taxation of equity mutual funds also) 25Mar2023

Buyback Offers and Weblinks

Check blog Kaveri Seed Company Buyback Offer 2023 for typical list of activities / timeline of events relating to buyback offers

When is the Next Buyback Offer Likely?

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2 The Example: Tender Offer Outcome for PQR Ltd

To understand how acceptance differs from entitlement, consider a simplified example of a recent tender offer buyback in PQR Ltd.

The figures below are for illustration. The company name has been changed for anonymity, but the structure reflects a typical "small shareholder" category outcome in an Indian tender offer buyback of equity shares.

Shares held on record date: 300
Entitlement (small shareholder category): 17 shares
Shares tendered: 250 shares
Shares accepted: 162 shares

Acceptance ratio vs tendered shares: 65 per cent (162/250)
Acceptance ratio vs entitlement: 9.5x (162/17)

At first glance, the outcome appears unusual. An investor with an entitlement of 17 shares ends up with 162 shares accepted under the buyback.

Incremental benefit for the shareholder from higher acceptance: 145 shares (162 − 17)

This practical example (check the template given at the end of the blog for your own analysis) shows that entitlement and final acceptance can differ significantly in practice, depending on participation in the buyback process.

3 What Is Entitlement in a Tender Offer Buyback

In a tender offer buyback, entitlement is the indicative number of shares that a shareholder can offer under the small shareholder category.

It is calculated based on the total number of shares held on the record date and the portion of the buyback reserved for this category.

Entitlement is not a limit on how many shares you can tender. A shareholder can tender all their shares if they choose to do so.

Entitlement is not the same as final acceptance. It is only a reference point used for allocation.

Entitlement is generally accepted in full by the company. Only the shares tendered above entitlement depend on overall participation in the category.

If many shareholders tender little or nothing, the unused portion is distributed among those who have tendered more shares than their entitlement.

This is how final acceptance can be above entitlement. If total tendered shares exceed the reserved portion, the additional shares tendered above entitlement are reduced proportionally, depending on the level of oversubscription.

If tendered shares are lower than the reserved portion, acceptance may be higher than entitlement.

This distinction is central to understanding buyback outcomes.

If you want more shares to be accepted by company than your entitlement in a buyback, you must tender more than your entitlement, depending on your personal preference.

4 Why Acceptance Can Exceed From Entitlement

Acceptance in a tender offer buyback depends on how shareholders actually participate in the process.

Not all eligible small shareholders tender their shares. Some do not participate at all. Some tender only part of their eligible shares.

Participation is always voluntary and may depend on individual factors such as tax considerations, expectations of future price movement or personal preference.

In a few cases, promoters prefer not to tender their shares, even though they are eligible to participate, in buyback offers. As an aside, promoter non-participation is often seen as a sign of confidence in the company's future.

Some shareholders tender exactly their entitlement, while others tender less or more than their entitlement.

Because of these differences, the total shares tendered can be lower or higher than the reserved portion for the category. This leads to final acceptance being adjusted based on overall participation levels.

As a result, acceptance can be higher than entitlement. Investors with similar holdings can therefore experience different outcomes in the same buyback.

In simple terms, entitlement shows what you can offer. Acceptance shows what you finally get.

5 Summary

Entitlement is often the starting point for investors in a tender offer buyback, but it does not determine the final outcome.

Acceptance depends on how shareholders actually behave during the offer. Participation is voluntary. Some shareholders fully participate, some partially participate and some do not participate at all.

Because of this variation in participation, final acceptance can differ significantly from entitlement, even within the same category.

In simple terms, to receive more than your entitlement in a buyback, you must tender more than your entitlement.

For a long-term investor, the key takeaway is simple. Entitlement is only a reference point. The real outcome is defined by overall participation and the final allocation process.

Understanding this difference helps in interpreting buyback results more accurately.

Check below for references and additional notes.

- - -

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References:

Tweet on recent buyback offer

Tweet thread on buyback offers - Share buybacks thread 🧵 >

Additional Notes:

1) India has a peculiar rule. A minimum of 15% of the total number of shares a company proposes to buy back is strictly reserved for small shareholder category, as per SEBI norms. A small shareholder is defined as a retail investor who holds shares whose total market value does not exceed Rs 2 lakh, based on the closing price as on the buyback record date.

2) Remember that tendering is itself a taxable event, and India's buyback tax rules have changed twice in the last two years, so check the current position before you tender.

3) Template that can be used by investors for analysing outcomes of Tender Offer Share Buybacks >

4) Screenshot from a recent post buyback announcement from a listed company > Readers can check how acceptance is derived for 'small shareholders' quota (15% of total) and general category >

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Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise

Weblinks and Investing

India Fixed Income Data Bank

Indian Economy Data Bank

India Forex Data Bank

Collected Notes 2026

Who is Eating my Gold ETF Return? (gold data / gold ETF data)

JP Morgan Guide to Markets 28Feb2025

Corporate Groups and Listed Companies 29Dec2024

Corporate Governance Concerns - Indian Companies 13Dec2024

Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry 16Feb2024

various uploads on Scribd by VRK100

Ferns, Coastlines and the Nifty 50: Why Choppy Markets Keep Repeating 15Jun2026

Fire money, Regret minimisation and SpaceX 08Jun2026

Nifty Valuation Tracker Series: May 2026 Update – Broad Market and Smart Beta Indices 31May2026

Why Nifty 100 Is Mostly a Nifty 50 Portfolio: Lessons from a Simple Thought Experiment 24May2026

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Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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Monday, 15 June 2026

Ferns, Coastlines and the Nifty 50: Why Choppy Markets Keep Repeating 15Jun2026

Ferns, Coastlines and the Nifty 50: Why Choppy Markets Keep Repeating 15Jun2026

Follow @vrk100

(This is my 518th blog since 2010. Over the years, I have covered global financial markets, with a focus on India, and continue to share insights to help readers understand complex topics in simple language.

Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

Nifty 50 Chart showing similar patterns in Oct2021-Mar2023 and Sep2024-Mar2026 period

1 Introduction

Ferns, coastlines and the Nifty: Look closely at a fern. Each little frond has the same shape as the whole leaf. Photograph a coastline from a plane, then from the sand and the jagged outline looks much the same at both heights.

A mathematician named Benoit Mandelbrot gave these repeating self-similar shapes a name: fractals. The whole looks like its parts and the parts look like the whole. You see it in ferns, snowflakes, rivers and clouds.

Mandelbrot argued that financial markets behave in a similar way. Look at the two red boxes on the above chart (Nifty 50 index). The first runs from Oct2021 to Mar2023. The second runs from Sep2024 to Mar2026.

They are not identical, but they are strikingly alike.

Each is a stretch of choppy, big swings: a jagged climb, a sharp fall, a fresh push to new highs, then another drop. The same shape, drawn twice.

Now think of the Nifty 50 as a coastline on a map you can zoom. Zoom into the first box and you find rough bays and inlets, the big moves up and down. Slide across and zoom into the second box, and the same bays and inlets appear.

The prices differ. The character is the same. Even the sizes rhyme. In both spells the index fell by about 15 per cent, bounced back by close to 20 per cent, then fell again (for data, see tables given under 'Additional data' at the end of the blog).

2 Backdrop

This is an update of an article titled: "The Pitfalls of Market Timing – And Why FOMO is Your Worst Financial Adviser 12Jul2025."

The earlier article comprehensively analysed the market behaviour of Oct2021-Mar2023 period and the current piece builds on that, focusing on the latest Sep2024-Mar2026 period.

Ups and downs are part of markets.

(article continues below)

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Related blogs:

The Pitfalls of Market Timing – And Why FOMO is Your Worst Financial Adviser 12Jul2025

Tweet thread 15Sep2020 Portfolio Rebalancing and Market Timing

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You are better off focusing on the business nature of a company, rather than a price chart.

There is a strange irony in how investors behave. During the Oct2021-Mar2023 choppy period, many investors assumed the choppiness would continue and resorted to heavy trading.

But they were completely caught off guard when Indian markets (represented by Nifty 50 index) experienced a spectacular one-way upmove from 17,000 levels in Mar2023 to 26,000 levels in Sep2024.

In Sep2020, I argued that rebalancing and market timing are different animals. Rebalancing is a calm rule you follow. Timing is a guess about the future that rarely pays.

The Jul2025 piece delved deeper into the choppy stretch of 18 months from Oct2021 to Mar2023, and the price investors paid for assuming the volatility would continue for long.

The pattern has returned during the Sep2024-Mar2026 period and the same two lessons hold. Do not try to time the volatile markets. Meet it with your own rules and with patience.

3 The Latest 18 months: Sep2024-Mar2026

The numbers tell a plain story of motion without progress. In Sep2024, the Nifty 50 stood near 26,200. By Mar2025, it reached a level of 22,100, losing almost 16 per cent in nearly six months.

From Mar2025 lows, it bounced back to 26,300, in a matter of 10 months, by the first week of Jan2026, But it lost over 15 per cent in under three months to reach a 2026-low of 22,300 by end-Mar2026. So, between Mar2025 and Mar2026, the index went nowhere.

Overall, during our observation period of Sep2024 to Mar2026, Nifty 50 returned nearly minus 15 per cent.

One detail is worth a pause. The falls were quick; the recovery was slow. The climb from Mar2025 to Jan2026 took about ten months. The two drops took roughly five months and three months.

Fear, it seems, moves faster than patience and the sharpest fall was the most recent one. An investor who glanced only at the start and the end would shrug at the overall decline (see Additional data at the end of the blog for the data).

These kind of repeated, zigzag patterns keep coming back in leaves, snowflakes and price charts. The secret to survival is learning to spot this repeating behavior early.

When the eventual market fall arrives, disciplined and calm investors have better chance of earning superior returns.

4 What the behavioural scientists tell us

Why are these violent movements so hard to sit through? The behavioural scientists have an answer, and it is not flattering to us.

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed that losses hurt far more than equal gains please us.

Losing a thousand dollars, say, on a gold trade hurts twice as much as the pleasure of gaining a thousand dollars in a chip stock—even though the net financial result is zero.

After a long rise we expect more rises. Our feelings run ahead of the facts.

That is why a long, jagged stretch is so dangerous, not to your wealth, but to your judgement. The market does not need to ruin you.

It only needs to frighten you into ruining yourself. Benjamin Graham warned, long ago, that an investor's worst enemy is usually himself.

The way-out of such a ruinous path is not cleverness but discipline. Make fewer decisions, and make them in calm moments, not panicked ones.

Follow a rule, such as rebalancing, so you act by plan rather than by mood. And judge yourself over years, not days.

We do not yet know how this second box ends. The leg after Mar2026 is still being written, and I will leave it for another day. From the lows of 22,300 in Mar2026, Nifty 50 has recovered, though in a choppy way, to nearly 24,000 levels now.

Nobody knows whether the market breaks higher or lower from here; but your own behaviour should serve you well. Keep your nerve, keep your rules and avoid keeping constant watch on the screen.

5 Why Markets Keep Repeating

Human nature tends not to change. People get greedy when things go well and panic when things go bad. New investors enter the market every day, but they still feel the exact same emotions.

Because human memory is short, every big rise and fall feels completely new to the crowd.

Fear travels much faster than patience. When prices drop, people rush to sell, which forces prices to drop even lower. On the flip side, long periods of calm make people overconfident, which quietly sets up the next big crash.

Markets are constantly hit by unexpected events like wars, oil crises, tariff wars, promise of new technology, changes in interest rates and political shockwaves.

The specific trigger changes every time, but the surprises never stop, forcing you to constantly guess a changing future.

Prices move faster than human judgment. News travels in a matter of seconds, but figuring out the true value of a company takes a long time.

If you look at a market chart for a single day, a full year, or an entire decade, you will see the same zigzag outline. This is the main point about fractals: the time frame changes, but the chaotic character of the market stays exactly the same.

Check below for references and additional data.

- - -

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References:

Tweet thread 15Jun2026 Ferns, Coastlines and Nifty 50: Why Choppy Markets Keep Repeating

NSE Historical index data

Tweet 03Sep2025 Nifty 50 fractal pattern

Tweet thread 12Jul2025 - The Pitfalls of Market Timing – And Why FOMO is Your Worst Financial Adviser

Trendlyne Nifty 50 chart

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Additional data:

Table 1 showing high volatility period of 18 months between Sep2024 and Mar2026 >

Table 2 showing high volatility period of 18 months between Oct2021 and Mar2023 >

Tuesday, 9 June 2026

Collected Notes 2026

Collected Notes 08Jun2026

Follow @vrk100

This is a running collection of news items, articles, images, ideas, observations, statistics, predictions, and other things I found interesting during 2026. Entries are brief and primarily intended as a personal reference archive.

Newest entries will be at the top.

Jun2026

19Jun2026 Dubai-based Emirates NBD Bank PJSC completes acquisition of majority stake in India's RBL Bank. It now owns 60% equity stake in the latter.

In Apr2026, Japan's MUFG Bank completed purchase of 20% equity stake in Shriram Finance - Tweet thread

Blog on "RBI’s New Comfort with Foreign Capital Spurs FDI Turnaround in India’s Financial Sector" 17Jan2026 -- Tweet thread 27Oct2025

FDI flows to India
FDI inflows
foreign ownership of banks in India - Tweet thread 20Oct2025
foreign ownership of NBFCs in India

19Jun2026 Prediction market traders speculate Anthropic will restore access quickly to AI model after Trump admin directed it to limit reach - Polymarket

19Jun2026 IGV vs SOXX - Google Finance comparison weblink

Tweet thread 30May2026 IGV vs SOXX -

Software vs hardware sector rotation in the US Software vs hardware sector rotation in the US -
iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) is often compared with iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) -
Software / SaaS sector in the US -
Software and Saas are used interchangeably -
Agent TAM - AI disruption

18Jun2026 Cofounders of Cursor (Anysphere Inc), Michael Truell, 25, Aman Sanger, 25, Sualeh Asif, 25 and Arvid Lunnemark, 26 have become billionaires and they will be worth $2.7 billion each as per Forbes estimates -- after Cursor was bought by SpaceX for USD 60 billion.

Young billionaires

18Jun2026 India AI Voice

Top conersational voice AI platforms in funding >

Sarvam AI, India

AISpeech, China

Cartesia, USA

Rasa, USA

Hume, USA

18Jun2026 Tweet Share Buybacks thread (share repurchases)

17Jun2026 Central banks look to increase gold reserves in coming year: WGC survey - gold outlook

16Jun2026 US emergency crude oil stockpile tumbles to lowest since the Reagan administration (1983) - US SPR or strategic petroleum reserves -

Iran deal and lowest SPR since 1983 - The SPR stood at 340 million barrels as of 12Jun2026, the lowest level since the summer of 1983

Tweet thread 27Jun2025 US SPR is half full now > SPR Drawdown was high not only during Biden admin but also in Trump admin

Tweet thread 09Mar2026 - G7, in coordination with IEA, to discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves

16Jun2026 Bank of Japan (BoJ) raises rates to 31-year high, flags more to come

As of 16Jun2026, Nikkei 225 touched its all time high (ATH) of 69,400.

It's remarkable Nikkei 225 rose by 110% from 33,000 level in Jun2023 to 69,400 on 16Jun2026. What is more remarkable is this unprecented rise of 110% in three years happened when Bamk of Japan's policy rate has been increased gradually from minus 0.1% in Jun2023 to 1% in Jun2026. The USD-JPY exchange rate moved form 140 in Jun2023 to 160 in Jun2026, meaning Japanese Yen has weakened against the

What are the top 5 reasons (plain text) for Nikkei 225's strong performance even as BoJ raised interest rates in the past three years?

> > The global AI and semiconductor boom has driven massive foreign investment into Japan’s chip supply chain giants like Tokyo Electron.

> Simultaneously, a prolonged weak yen boosted profits for major exporters like Toyota by making Japanese goods cheaper abroad.

> Even as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, borrowing remained cheap, signaling a healthy transition out of a two-decade deflationary era into steady growth.

> Corporate governance reforms, increased dividends and backing from high-profile investors like Warren Buffett further amplified global market confidence.

> However, with the Nikkei 225 now trading above its long-run average, the rally faces risks if AI spending slows or the yen strengthens rapidly.

BOJ raises policy rate to 1% from 0.75% in widely expected move

Charts showing BoJ rate hikes since minus 0.1% in Jun2023 to 1.0% in Jun2026 >

16Jun2026 US Supreme Court rejects TCS Ltd appeal in the USD 168 million trade secret case

The case in question was a trade-secret lawsuit TCS and US-based Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), now part of DXC Technology. In 2024, DXC accused TCS of misappropriating its trade secrets to win a $2.6 billion contract with Transamerica and develop its own software platform BaNCS.

16Jun2026 Mac shortcut for Safari browser >

New window: Cmd + N

New private window: Shift + Cmd + N

16Jun2026 Vedanta Ltd demerger - Post-demerger, most of market value (55%+) has been accrued to Vedanta Aluminium Metal Ltd post-demerger of Vedanta Ltd.

The demerged company, Vedanta Ltd, carries one-third of the total market cap of all five listed firms.

BALCO clarification

The big deal for shareholders is: has Vedanta Ltd demerger created value for shareholders?

Short answer: Resounding yes.😀

15Jun2026 HCL Tech is investing USD 150 million or Rs 1,400 crore for a 10.5% stake, in Sarvam AI (Axonwise Pvt Ltd), as the lead strategic investor

Sarvam AI is an LLM startup based out of Bangalore. With this investment round, Sarvam AI is valued at USD 1.5 billion. It's India's first unicorn in AI space.

This is the kind of OPTIONALITY, fundametally strong companies like HCL Tech possess. Most investors ignore this optionality at their own cost.

This investment positions HCL Tech as a frontrunner in cutting-edge fields like "Agentic AI."

Sarvam AI is India's full-stack sovereign AI company.

Sovereign AI is just AI built and controlled within a country's own borders. The core technology is the same.

The difference is about ownership, control and location.

Though Sarvam AI is mostly private-funded, Govt of India is providing some kind of support to it.

Sarvam AI was co-founded in Aug2023 by Dr Vivek Raghavan and Dr Pratyush Kumar.

(Good to know Chandra R Srikanth and Tushar Goenka of Moneycontrol.com got the story right; they reported on 14May2026, HCL Tech was likely to invest USD 150 million in Sarvam AI.)

15Jun2026 Nifty Indices and NSE India launch 11 new sectoral indices > and they are >

Nifty Power - 21 stocks
Nifty Capital Goods - 50 stocks
Nifty Telecommunications - 13 stocks
Nifty Construction - 23 stocks
Nifty Consumer Services - 46 stocks
Nifty Commercial & Transport Services - 26 stocks
Nifty Retail - 26 stocks
Nifty Hospitals - 13 stocks
Nifty NBFC - 19 stocks
Nifty Housing Finance - 10 stocks
Nifty Insurance - 12 stocks

NSE Indices methodology document for equity indices Jun2026

15Jun2026 Tweet How exciting is this! Now, foreigners like, Elon Musk and Richard Branson can now open trading accounts in India and start buying Indian stocks directly.

15Jun2026 Tweet CEA Dr V Anant Nageswaran is parroting what economist Dr Ajay Shah has been advocating for long for allowing rupee as a shock absorber for Indian economy during hard times

15Jun2026 Tweet Checks and balances in the US > Trump tariff refunds > Wheels turn for over USD 10-billion US tariff repatriation to India

14Jun2026 Business Line - High concentration risk of global stock indices, like, Taiwan, the Netherlands, Denmark and South Korea; and more diversified markets, like, China, India, the USA and South Korea.

Problem with single-stock countries, like, Taiwan, Netherlands and Denmark -- they may do well in the short to medium term; but in the long term, can they depend alone on a single stock?

14Jun2026 Condensed PDF of Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" -- the condensed version was written by Eamonn Butler

13Jun2026 Under orders from Trump administration (export control order based on national security bogey), Anthropic suspended access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models - so, foreign countries will not be able to access them -

earlier Tweet thread 09May2025 - AI diffusion rules - trade protectionism - Sovereign cloud - Digital sovereignty > tech sovereignty - sovereign AI

Tweet thread 28Jul2025 Microsoft suspends services to Rosneft-Backed India Refiner Nayara Energy - weaponisation of digital services? - EU sanctions

13Jun2026 Tweet - Elon Musk is both a builder and seller. Other comparisons include Apple, Microsoft and Google >

13Jun2026 Corporate demerger thread 🧵> (with image containing recently demerger schemes or schemes of arrangement) > Vedanta Ltd, Maharashtra Seamless and others

13Jun2026 India crude basket (USD / barrel) is 93.2 as on 11Jun2026.Monthly average prices > PPAC data

13Jun2026 Tweet Crude oil prices USD / barrel > Prices (Brent, WTI and Murban) are down sharply in anticipation of US Iran war settlement

13Jun2026 Tweet Heavy colour & graphics in annual reports often serve as "impression management". They distract readers from weak financial results.

13Jun2026 On its IPO debut (public listing) on Nasdaq on 12Jun2026, SpaceX has become world's seventh largest listed company by market cap, ahead of Broadcom, Saudi Aramco, Tesla, Meta and Samsung. SpaceX stock is part of Nasdaq Composite index, but it is not yet a part of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500.

World's top 10 companies by market cap as of 12Jun2026 (as per companiesmarketcap.com, the world's total stock market cap for 10,632 listed companies tracked by companiesmarketcap.com is USD 150 trillion as of 12Ju2026) >

13Jun2026 On its historic debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, 12Jun2026 (under the ticker symbol SPCX), SpaceX’s stock performance registered the following key figures (at the IPO price of USD 135 a share, SpaceX's market cap was USD 1.77 trillion; but at the close price of USD 160.95, its market cap is USD 2.1 trillion:

IPO Price: USD 135.00 (The fixed price set the night before trading)

Open Price: USD 150.00

High Price: USD 176.52

Low Price: USD 149.34

Close Price: USD 160.95 (nearly 19% gain from its initial IPO price)

13Jun2026 According to Forbes, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, became world's first trillionaire with a net worth of USD 1.1 trillion on 12Jun2026, when SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) went public (IPO listing on Nasdaq)

12Jun2026 CFA Institute Research Foundation:

Jun2026: A Comprehensive Guide to ETFs (2nd edition) Module 2: Evaluating ETFs

Three-leg approach for evaluating ETFs:

1) Efficiency -- expense ratios, tracking difference (it differs from tracking error), tax consequences, transparency (disclosures)

Efficiency metrics:
AUM
expense ratio
median tracking difference
portfolio disclosure, monthly or daily

2) Tradability - order types, volumes, spreads, premium and discounts (difference between NAV and ETF market price)

In case of volumes, median volumes can be tracked.

3) Fit - whether ETF's investment strategy aligns with investors' objectives; in some cases, the return difference between the best and worst ETF can be quite large

ETF count (number of ETFs)

Concentration (Herfindahl Ratio)

Six prototype investor personas (like mid career retirement savers, Next Gen retail investors, foundations, family offices, etc.)

Apr2025: A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO ETFs (2ND EDITION) MODULE 1: ETF FEATURES AND EVOLVING LANDSCAPE

12Jun2026 ETV video SP Balasubrahmanyam Emotional Speech About Director Bharathiraja In Swarabhishekam programme on 26Jan2014 - ETV - Ramoji Rao

11Jun2026 Bharathiraja's film, Mudhal Mariyathai (Telugu version ఆత్మ బంధువు, 1986) is based on the love story of Russian writer Fyodor Dostoevsky and Anna Snitkina, who was 25 years younger to him.

11Jun2026 Tweet CMS Info Systems buyback proceeds credited today. entitlement vs acceptance

In one individual ("small shareholder") case, the company accepted 9.5 times the original entitlement!

This high acceptance ratio happened because many eligible investors either skipped it or simply forgot to participate.

11Jun2026 MSCI EM Index 31May2026 - for the first time in 26 years, no Indian stock is in top 10 of the index - Taiwan, South Korea, China, India and Brazil are top five countries in the index, with China and India dropping their top ranks. TSMC weight at 14.5% is much higher than that of entire India weight of 10.9%.

EMs have, both in 2025 and 2026 (so far), outpeformed the World index.

11Jun2026 Javier Blas - The drop in nitrogen fertilirer (urea) prices has now extended into Asia. India has received offers for its latest urea tender at an average price of USD 530 per tonne, down ~44% from $947 per tonne in April. (The massive drop in Asian urea prices is primarily driven by China. After implementing stringent export bans on urea in March to protect its domestic supply, Beijing recently decided to open up its export quotas again.)

11Jun2026 Ten Reasons Oil Is Still Below USD 100 a Barrel - by Javier Blas - weblink for free read

After more than 100 days of Iran war, crude oil prices are still below USD 100

Before the war, an average of 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products transited the Strait of Hormuz — about a fifth of global demand

1 China has reduced its imports (they imported much more oil in 2025)
China may have tapped its SPR
China essentially bailed out the global economy
2 demand destruction
China oved to EVs, may have further reduced oil demand
India consumption of LPG and natural gas has come down after Iran war
Asia switched to coal and firewood
3 Crude oil is still leaving Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia and UAE are using oil pipelines
Some tankers too are moving out of SoH
4 there was oversupply of oil at the start of war (around 27-28Feb2026)
5 The US and other IEA members released their SPR
6 Refineries are now more flexible in terms of what they produce--diesel, petrol, jet fuel, fuel oil, petrochemicals
7 the art of jawboning the oil market
8 oil price insurance (call options) is more available
9 satellite tracking of oil tankers has improved allowing trades to take a better view
10 higher prices, higher production (the US, Canada, Brazil, China and Guyana are producing more)

But the future is uncertain

11Jun2026 Tweet thread - India market cap >

India market cap to GDP ratio based on nominal GDP (new series with base year 2022-23) >

BSE market cap of all listed companies is Rs 461.60 lakh crore (or USD 4.84 trillion), as of 07Jun2026.

India nominal GDP Rs 346.36 lakh crore (or USD 3.64 trillion) for FY 2025-26 (New Series), so market cap to GDP ratio is 133 per cent.

11Jun2026 KKR bullish on India’s long-term investment prospects - higher-quality services - India growth story -

11Jun2026 India has potential for over 102 GW of floating solar capacity: Govt of India - reservoirs - water bodies - Omkareshwar Floating Solar Park, Madhya Pradesh - solar power - renewable energy

11Jun2026 Tweet thread Evidence-based investing requires us to test market narratives against actual data.

One narrative making the rounds today is that a weakening rupee is driving foreign investors (FPIs) out of Indian equities.

But does the evidence support that claim?

10Jun2026 Vivek Mashrani - Claude AI tips - Claude tips for investing prompts -

20May2026 X Article by Shruti Codes - how to use Claude - Claude tips to unlock its full potential

10Jun2026 Tweet thread gold and silver prices - world prices - India gold / silver prices

09Jun2026 Ground report from Akash Prakash - huge AI capex - zero interest about India

09Jun2026 (via msn / Bloomberg) Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu of aiding China’s military

09Jun2026 (via msn / Bloomberg) China's pharma compnay, WuXi AppTec Co, is named by Pentagon to have links with the Chinese military - Biosecure Act - India CDMO sector

09Jun2026 Tweet thread FCNR (B) and NRI deposits create a FUTURE LIABILITY for India - FPI flows - FDI flows -

09Jun2026 China’s exports surged 19.4% year-on-year to a record high of USD 376.78 billion in May2026

08Jun2026 A US Federal Judge blocks Trump’s USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee - checks and balances in the US

Checks and balances in the US - Tweet thread 08May2026: Some decisions of Trump administration reversed by courts in the US and the Congress:

US federal judge blocks Trump's USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee

US Supreme Court reverses Trump's universal reciprocal tariffs

Trump's executive ban on new offshore wind power projects struck down by a federal court

Trump admin's restrictions on tax credits to clean energy projects vacated by a federal judge

The US Senate bipartisan passage of a War Powers Resolution to halt unauthorized military hostilities in Venezuela

A sweeping hold on immigration applications from dozens of nations struck down by a federal judge

The addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 census blocked by the Supreme Court

The executive-backed push to completely "repeal and replace" Obamacare defeated by the US Senate

08Jun2026 Tweet thread Installed solar capacity (the actual utilisation is less than 13%, nobody tells you this 🤣)

Why India is not able to fully use the solar power it generates
India renewable energy sector
lack of transmission capacity
gaps in transmission infra

India energy transition

Curtailment
lack of BESS

04Jun2026 Aswath Damodaran SpaceX valuation is USD 97.83 per share - his video

20May2026 Tweet thread - resource nationalism -Resource sovereignty - Indonesia - inward looking world - deglobalisation? - weaponising global trade - supply chain security - Strategic resource stockpiling - Resource weaponisation - resource rich countries - resource poor countries - China curbs

16Jun2026 Tweet Rant against Screener.in for not allowing companies to add to a watchlist

16Jun2026 Tweet Rant against NSE India for providing incorrect market cap for Vedanta Power

09Jun2026 Tweet Rant against Business Line for conflating FDI with current account of a country - media mistakes -

03Jun2026 Tweet Rant against RBI for data discrepancy in CIC or currency in circulation data - divergence between annual report and RBI bulletin

25Apr2026 Tweet Rant against NSE India: wrong data by NSE India in Market Pulse (later corrected by them) - NSE mistakes -

07May2026 Tweet India FDI flows > FDI outflows >

Indian firms commit USD 20.5 billion investment in US; Pharma dominates with USD 19.1 billion https://thehindubusinessline.com/companies/indi
an-firms-commit-205-billion-investment-in-us-pharma-dominates-with-191-billion/article70946479.ece

India's MAGA?

Sun Pharma to buy Oragnon
Aurobindo pharma
Biocon
Zydus Lifesciences
Cipla
Dr Reddy's

12Apr2026 Tweet - Sovereign cloud - Digital sovereignty > EU tech sovereignty - data security concerns

14Oct2025 Tweet Most Investments are Actually Bad. Here’s Why. By Lyn Alden.

Leverage

Moats (network effects, brands, patents, intangible assets, economies of scale and others)

Tweet 25Mar2021 Imagine yourself running into Vincent vag Gogh and walking into his paintings!

Tweet 08Apr2018 'Other painters paint a bridge, a house, a boat,' Claude Monet explained. 'I want to paint the air that surrounds the bridge, the house, the boat.' #Painting

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Read more:

Blog of Blogs Theme-wise

Weblinks and Investing

Buyback Offers and Weblinks 15May2023 (Updated 18Jun2026)

India Fixed Income Data Bank - Tweet thread 08May2026

Indian Economy Data Bank - Tweet thread 07Jun2026

India Forex Data Bank - Tweet thread 26Apr2026

Collected Notes 2026

Who is Eating my Gold ETF Return? (gold data / gold ETF data)

JP Morgan Guide to Markets 28Feb2025

Corporate Groups and Listed Companies 29Dec2024

Corporate Governance Concerns - Indian Companies 13Dec2024 (including family feuds / family disputes)

Stocks and Peer Comparison by Industry 16Feb2024

various uploads on Scribd by VRK100