"By the time today’s babies graduate from college, the treatments for most diseases will have been revolutionized by this project.”
~ Francis Collins, director of Human Genome Project or HGP (1999)
~ Francis Collins, director of Human Genome Project or HGP (1999)
In 2000, President Bill Clinton, alongside UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, announced the completion of the Human Genome Project with lot of pomp and celebration.
Clinton described it as a historic milestone, calling it a moment where “we are learning the language in which God created life.” He emphasised the profound potential of genetic science to revolutionise how we prevent, diagnose and treat disease.
Clinton described it as a historic milestone, calling it a moment where “we are learning the language in which God created life.” He emphasised the profound potential of genetic science to revolutionise how we prevent, diagnose and treat disease.
The Human Genome Project was hailed as the dawn of a new era in medicine. Yet, two decades later, its promises have been only partially realised.
People tend to remember and celebrate the success stories, while forgetting or ignoring the many failed attempts that once had just as much (or more) hype.
We celebrate the internet in the 1990s, but forget the hundreds of ventures that failed spectacularly in the 1990s and early 2000s. We glorify the success of AWS (launched in 2006) in cloud computing but can't recall the early failures, like Cisco Intercloud and Sun Microsystems' "The Internet is the Computer."
Survivorship Bias
This is survivorship bias at work: we focus on the winners, ignoring the many failures that were once just as hyped, visionary and well-funded. In technology, we tend to assume progress is inevitable.
Survivorship bias is the tendency to concentrate on people, ideas, stocks or things that made it past a selection process — while ignoring those that didn’t.
For every Nvidia or Amazon that made investors rich, there are dozens of hyped-up companies that burned out, faded away or never delivered.
For every breakout success in technology, there are dozens of ambitious ideas that never made it.
In tech, it means we focus on success stories like Google, iPhone or Tesla, and forget all the Theranoses, Zunes and Segways that never made it.
Story continues below
----------------------
Disappointing breakthroughs
History is full of examples of technologies that were announced with great fanfare and predicted to revolutionise the world, but ultimately fell short of expectations or failed to achieve widespread adoption.
The reasons for these failures are varied, often a combination of technological limitations, market miscalculations, high costs or a lack of public acceptance.
The reasons for these failures are varied, often a combination of technological limitations, market miscalculations, high costs or a lack of public acceptance.
Here are some technologies that once carried massive hype — some even labeled as world-changing — but ultimately failed, stalled, or quietly disappeared. Not because they weren’t clever, but because hype isn’t the same as lasting impact.
Each of these failures reminds us that success in tech isn’t just about innovation — it’s about timing, usability, execution, trust and sometimes, plain luck. When we only study the successes, we risk learning the wrong lessons.
For entrepreneurs: “Study failures just as hard as successes — the graveyard of tech is full of good ideas poorly timed.”
For investors: “Don’t confuse a strong demo with a sustainable business model.”
For general readers: “Just because something is trending doesn’t mean it will last.”
For entrepreneurs: “Study failures just as hard as successes — the graveyard of tech is full of good ideas poorly timed.”
For investors: “Don’t confuse a strong demo with a sustainable business model.”
For general readers: “Just because something is trending doesn’t mean it will last.”
The next time you hear that a new technology is going to change the world, pause and ask: Is this another iPhone — or another Google Glass? The difference is easy to see in hindsight. But survivorship bias means we rarely see the failures when we're caught up in the mania.
Iridium is a classic and fascinating case of a technological marvel that failed commercially at first, despite being hyped as revolutionary.
Google Loon is another example of a heavily hyped technology that ultimately failed to deliver on its promises. Project Loon aimed to provide global internet access using high-altitude balloons floating in the stratosphere.
Due to technical complications, high costs and commercial non-viability, Loon was shut down by Alphabet Inc (parent of Google) in 2021. Elon Musk's Starlink emerged as a viable alternative with the concept of low-earth orbit satellites.
Google Loon is another example of a heavily hyped technology that ultimately failed to deliver on its promises. Project Loon aimed to provide global internet access using high-altitude balloons floating in the stratosphere.
Due to technical complications, high costs and commercial non-viability, Loon was shut down by Alphabet Inc (parent of Google) in 2021. Elon Musk's Starlink emerged as a viable alternative with the concept of low-earth orbit satellites.
There are many more such instances of technologies that have failed to live up to expectations.
List of Overhyped or Failed Technologies: Iridium, Hyperloop, Google Loon, Facebook Aquila, Human Genome Project, Theranos, Segway, Microsoft Zune, Flying cars, Google Glass, 23andMe and Blockchain.
Work in Progress
Unlike failed tech, some ideas - like 3D printing and the Metaverse - survive in a grey area: overhyped at first, but still evolving quietly in the background, away from the headlines.
Failure isn’t the end — in fact, it’s often part of the innovation cycle. Many of the technologies we label as failures today planted seeds that helped future breakthroughs succeed.
A failed technology isn't always a waste — it can be a prototype for the next wave, a cautionary tale or even the launchpad for something better.
Iridium (Satellite Phones): Failed commercially at launch, went bankrupt in 1999.
But the satellite network was later revived by the US Department of Defense and other industries needing remote communications.
Today, Iridium operates a global satellite network with real users — including emergency services, aviation and military.
Legacy: Proved viability of LEO (low Earth orbit) satellite constellations — a concept now driving Starlink.
Innovation isn’t just about celebrating the survivors — it’s about learning from the fallen. Some failures fade quietly. Others become the launching pads for the future.
The Future of ChatGPT?
The future of ChatGPT remains uncertain, even though it has triggered an AI boom in under three years. The AI boom is a rapid surge in development, investment and adoption of artificial intelligence technologies across industries, changing how we work, live and interact.
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of Business professor wrote a year ago: "AI's net positive effect on markets overall will be surprisingly small. The reason is that there will be only a few big winners, but many wannabes, losers, and market chasers who are forced to invest in the new technology merely to keep up."
As Damodaran notes, the hype around revolutionary technologies tends to produce a handful of big winners, while the rest are followers, chasers or failures. From internet, online commerce to smartphones to AI today, we've seen the survivorship bias movie play out consistently.
It’s easy to see why experts like Damodaran remain sceptical — history shows that most technological revolutions benefit a few dominant players, while the rest struggle to survive.
It’s easy to see why experts like Damodaran remain sceptical — history shows that most technological revolutions benefit a few dominant players, while the rest struggle to survive.
- - -
------------------------
References:
Above image: Google Gemini
Human Genome Project completion by Bill Clinton and Tony Blair
The Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christensen
Other examples of failed or overhyped technologies : 3D television, hoverboards, Facebook Libra cryptocurrency, AOL, New Coke, BlackBerry, Microsoft Bing, Napster, Apple Newton MessagePad, Tata Nano, Amazon Fire Phone, Netscape Navigator, Palm Pilot, Apple iTunes and others.
