Loss of First-mover Advantage 16Mar2025
(This
is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a
recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial
adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested
interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)
There are no guarantees in markets and the corporate world. Only a handful of companies can withstand the onslaught of technology disruption. There are several instances where companies have lost their first-mover advantage:
Adam Osborne invented the first laptop computer, but failed ultimately to exploit it.
AltaVista search engine (launched by DEC in 1995) and Yahoo had lost ground to Google search engine in the end.
MySpace lost to Facebook in social media.
Adam Osborne invented the first laptop computer, but failed ultimately to exploit it.
AltaVista search engine (launched by DEC in 1995) and Yahoo had lost ground to Google search engine in the end.
MySpace lost to Facebook in social media.
Most of you are familiar with how eBay lost to Amazon Inc in the e-commerce space. eBay could not withstand the Amazon's aggressive expansion. While eBay focused on sellers, Amazon did a paradigm shift with focus on ultimate buyers.
Last-mover advantage
In his 2014 book 'Zero to One: Notes on startups, or how to build the future,' Peter Thiel wrote: "Microsoft in 2002 and Nokia in 2006 released their tablets -- but they failed to click in the market because they were hard to use. But Apple released its iPad in 2010, with huge improvements in design and ease, and it became a big success. Apple enjoyed benefits as a lost mover."
Though started with a first-mover advantage in web browsers, Netscape Navigator (started in 1994) lost its dominance to Microsoft's Internet Explorer or IE. IE was bundled with Windows software resulting in the demise of Netscape Navigator (Microsoft's Internet Explorer, now Edge, itself losing later to Google Chrome, Apple Safari and Mozilla Firefox browsers is a different issue).
In the 1970s, Xerox PARC pioneered groundbreaking technologies, like, graphical user interface (GUI) but failed to commercialise them. Ultimately, Apple's Macintosh computers and Microsoft's Windows reaped the benefits of Xerox's GUI technology.
Though started with a first-mover advantage in web browsers, Netscape Navigator (started in 1994) lost its dominance to Microsoft's Internet Explorer or IE. IE was bundled with Windows software resulting in the demise of Netscape Navigator (Microsoft's Internet Explorer, now Edge, itself losing later to Google Chrome, Apple Safari and Mozilla Firefox browsers is a different issue).
In the 1970s, Xerox PARC pioneered groundbreaking technologies, like, graphical user interface (GUI) but failed to commercialise them. Ultimately, Apple's Macintosh computers and Microsoft's Windows reaped the benefits of Xerox's GUI technology.
If you want to know more about Xerox PARC's GUI technology, you need to read a book titled 'Steve Jobs,' in which Walter Isaacson vividly describes Jobs' efforts to use GUI, while Xerox looked the other way.
Japan's Nintendo was an undisputed leader in the video game console market in the 1980s and early 1990s. But with the entry of Sony's PlayStation in 1994, it lost its dominance. PlayStation and Microsoft's Xbox are now the leaders.
Even though Kodak introduced the first digital camera in 1975, it failed to capitalise on its first-mover advantage by ceding ground to rivals Nikon and Canon first and to smartphones later. Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012.
Though a first-mover, Dunzo lost to Blinkit and Zepto in India's fast-chaing 10-minute grocery delivery.
Nissan Leaf, launched in 2010, was a pioneer in mass-market electric cars. But in the next five to 10 years, it had lost its first-mover advantage due to competition from Tesla and Chinese carmakers like BYD and others.
Nokia was a leader in mobile phones in the 1990s and early 2000s. It failed to adapt itself to smartphone revolution, resulting in loss of its first-mover advantage to Apple's iPhones and Samsung Android phones. Nokia's Symbian OS failed to upgrade to smartphone technology.
Launched in 1999, BlackBerry was a gamechanger -- it combined emails and wireless communication. BlackBerry was earlier known as Research in Motion or RIM. By late 2000s, it lost its first-mover advantage to Apple's iPhone and other smartphones.
Will DeepSeek dethrone the first-mover OpenAI's ChatGPT? Though China's DeepSeek has its cost advantages right now, any serious challenge to ChatGPT's current dominance in artificial intelligence / artificial general intelligence is some time away in my humble opinion.
Though a first-mover, Dunzo lost to Blinkit and Zepto in India's fast-chaing 10-minute grocery delivery.
Nissan Leaf, launched in 2010, was a pioneer in mass-market electric cars. But in the next five to 10 years, it had lost its first-mover advantage due to competition from Tesla and Chinese carmakers like BYD and others.
Nokia was a leader in mobile phones in the 1990s and early 2000s. It failed to adapt itself to smartphone revolution, resulting in loss of its first-mover advantage to Apple's iPhones and Samsung Android phones. Nokia's Symbian OS failed to upgrade to smartphone technology.
Launched in 1999, BlackBerry was a gamechanger -- it combined emails and wireless communication. BlackBerry was earlier known as Research in Motion or RIM. By late 2000s, it lost its first-mover advantage to Apple's iPhone and other smartphones.
Will DeepSeek dethrone the first-mover OpenAI's ChatGPT? Though China's DeepSeek has its cost advantages right now, any serious challenge to ChatGPT's current dominance in artificial intelligence / artificial general intelligence is some time away in my humble opinion.
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References:
Peter Thiel: "Zero to One: Notes on startups, or how to build the future
Walter Isaacson: "Steve Jobs: The Exclusive Biography"
Notes:
Netscape Navigator was earlier known as Mosaic Netscape.
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Afterthought on 17Mar2025:
Iridium / Google Loon / Facebook Aquila / Starlink
Iridium was conceived as a revolutionary idea in global mobile communication. Due to several reasons, the technology failed to catch up, though Iridium still operates satellite phones in remote areas. But ultimately, other technologies like GSM and CDMA have dominated the mobile communication.
Now, SpaceX’s Starlink is dominating the world in satellite internet. It has more than 7,000 satellites (in low earth orbit) around the globe. (There are other competitors to Starlink, like, OneWeb and Kuiper Systems).
On the other hand, Iridium has 66 working satellites now.
The use cases of Iridium satellite communication and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communication are slightly different. Iridium satellite phones are more rugged and easy to call any phone in the world. Iridium is primarily used for voice calls and low-data services. Starlink provides high-speed internet.
In the early 2010s, Google started Project Loon to provide internet in remote and rural areas, by using high-altitude balloons. But the project failed, with Google shutting it down in 2021.
Facebook too started its own internet service called Aquila, using solar-powered drones. It ultimately disbanded the project in 2018, due mainly to technological failures.
Iridium was conceived as a revolutionary idea in global mobile communication. Due to several reasons, the technology failed to catch up, though Iridium still operates satellite phones in remote areas. But ultimately, other technologies like GSM and CDMA have dominated the mobile communication.
Now, SpaceX’s Starlink is dominating the world in satellite internet. It has more than 7,000 satellites (in low earth orbit) around the globe. (There are other competitors to Starlink, like, OneWeb and Kuiper Systems).
On the other hand, Iridium has 66 working satellites now.
The use cases of Iridium satellite communication and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communication are slightly different. Iridium satellite phones are more rugged and easy to call any phone in the world. Iridium is primarily used for voice calls and low-data services. Starlink provides high-speed internet.
In the early 2010s, Google started Project Loon to provide internet in remote and rural areas, by using high-altitude balloons. But the project failed, with Google shutting it down in 2021.
Facebook too started its own internet service called Aquila, using solar-powered drones. It ultimately disbanded the project in 2018, due mainly to technological failures.
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Disclosure: I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and
opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed
as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers
before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested
interest in financial markets.
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