Global Market Data 31Mar2023
(please look at the blog dated 16Jan2023 for data from 2012 to 2022)
Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 31 March 2023, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows:
Table 1: (please click on the image to view better)
Between
31Dec2022 and 31Mar2023, global stock markets recovered. Nasdaq Composite led the way with a return of 16.8 percent for the first quarter of 2023. S&P 500 index rose by 7 percent, Dax 30 increased by 12.2 percent and Nikkei 225 delivered 7.5 percent.
Indian stocks disappointed with Sensex giving a negative return of 3 percent. It may be mentioned Sensex showed resilience in 2022 while most of the leading stock indices declined sharply. This calendar year, Sensex has been underperforming the global peers.
WTI crude declined by 6 percent, gold is up 8.6 percent and Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 6.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023.
The outlier is Bitcoin, which delivered a spectacular return of 72 percent in the quarter. (Bitcoin fell by 65 percent in 2022)
In recent months, inflationary expectations have been abating in major countries, including the US and the Euro area. In fact, inflation rates have declined in major developed markets. This has prompted markets to speculate about the US Federal Reserve reducing its federal funds rate in the second half of 2023.
The speculation about the Fed cutting rates has led to a rally in the US technology stocks and other markets too followed suit.
The US 10-year Treasury yield declined by 41 basis points in the quarter. The 2-year Treasury yield too fell sharply.
Year-on-year (past 12-month returns) global market data as on 31Mar2023 are presented below:
Table 2: (please click on the image to view better)
One-year returns (between 31Mar2022 and 31Mar2023) are as follows: Nasdaq declined by 14 percent, Dax 30 rose by 8.4 percent and Sensex was almost flat.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply by 237 basis points (100 basis points equal one percentage point) to 3.47 percent as on 31Mar2023. The 10-year India G-Sec yield increased by 88 basis points.
Crude oil, Bloomberg Commodity Index and Bitcoin have shown considerable decline in the past one year.
The US dollar index (USDX) increased by 4.3 percent.
The market speculation about the Fed easing its tight monetary policy has resulted in the recent rally for stocks. China lifting its COVID-19 restrictions too has sent positive signals to world growth prospects.
But as uncertainties around Russia's invasion of Ukraine, liquidity problems in the US and European banks, fears about de-globalisation and the US-China trade tensions continue to weigh on markets. Maybe, caution is the buzzword.
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Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.
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He blogs at:
https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/
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