Best Value For Your Money from RamaKrishnaVadlamudi

Wednesday, 27 April 2022

A Quick Glance at UPL Limited - vrk100 - 27Apr2022

A Quick Glance at UPL Limited

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(Disclaimer: This is just for information purposes only; this is not an investment recommendation. Prospective investors should consult their investment advisors before making any trades.)

My opinion on UPL Limited:

-- business-wise, UPL Limited has been doing well, with a compounded annualised growth rate (CAGR) of 18 to 20 per cent in both sales as well as net profit over the past ten years

-- this high growth is reflected in the current share price--which has a CAGR of 26 per cent in the past 10 years

-- UPL Limited is one of the big agro-chem players in the world, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Bayer Crop Science AG, Syngenta, BASF SE and others

-- the company's buyback programme is now going on; it's buying back equity shares with a maximum price of Rs 875 per share through stock market mechanism--the buyback will last till 06Oct2022--the company proposes to buy shares worth Rs 1,100 crore

-- in general, the buyback programmes give support to stock prices, that is, at least till the closure of the buyback (06Oct2022), subject to business prospects

-- the main business activity of UPL is manufacture and marketing of agro-chemical products, seeds and other agriculture-related products

-- Some years ago, the company amalgamated Advanta Ltd with itself

-- the company's total long-term borrowings are Rs 22,200 crore (30Sep2021)

-- Its debt-equity ratio is high at 1.02

-- its liquidity position is decent; its ability to repay short term debt is good--its cash & cash equivalents are Rs 2,867 crore (30Sep2021)

-- as per CRISIL Ratings Ltd's report (dated 21Dec2021 for total bank facilities of Rs 6,400 crore), its long-term credit rating is AA+/Stable and short-term is A1+

-- the company's stock is a market favourite

-- operating profit margins are decent; but return on capital employed (ROCE) has been less than satisfactory for the past three years

-- total promoter holding is low at 28 per cent; foreign investors hold 35 per cent; domestic institutions 18 per cent and the remaining is with the public

-- the company raised equity capital in financial year 2019-20

-- it's apparent the company in recent years is focusing on sales growth while compromising on return on equity and return on capital employed

-- with a debt of Rs 22,000 crore, why the company is doing a buyback of Rs 1,100 crore isn't clear to me (may be, to prop up company's share price?)

-- moreover, it has paid dividends worth Rs 1,940 crore in the past five years

-- why is the company doing a buyback and paying such dividends when the company's debt-equity ratio is more than one?

-- other red flags are it had done an equity issue in FY 2019-20 and now it's doing a buyback of Rs 1,100 crore--I'm unable to fathom the reason behind such contradictory moves in a short span of time

-- markets for some of the time don't care about management integrity until they do

-- the company has made intriguing changes to its name several times in the past (tweet dated 10Nov2018)--changing many avataars

-- I'm sceptical of the promoter's intentions and wonder whether their interests align with those of minority shareholders

-- there were certain allegations on the company in Dec2020

-- the current market price is Rs 797 per share (intra-day 27Apr2022), with a market cap of Rs 60,900 crore

-- its price-to-earnings ratio is 17.6, price-to-book-value is 3.0 and price-to-sales ratio is 1.4

-- Finally, given the above concerns, I'm not in favour of buying the stock (this is just my opinion, this should not be construed as investment advice)

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What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Primer on Credit Rating Scales

Speed Read on FDC Buyback Offer 2022

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Returns

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Market Cap

When Will Foreign Investors Stop Selling Indian Stocks?

Rise of Retail Investors and Demat a/cs in India

Indian Mutual Funds and The Art of Ripping Off Investors

Do Paint Stocks and Crude Oil Tango?

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

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Sunday, 24 April 2022

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise? - vrk100 - 24Apr2022

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

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(Disclaimer: This is just for information purposes only; this is not an investment recommendation. Prospective investors should consult their investment advisors before making any trades.)

The stock price of LT Foods Limited reached an all-time-high (ATH) of Rs 109 per share on 08Jan2018 before losing 82 per cent of its value by Christmas 2019 to plunge to Rs 20.

This is not the first time that the stock suffered such a heavy loss in stock market. During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the stock lost 75 per cent of its value between January 2008 and March 2009.

However, the same stock has given a phenomenal return of nearly 550 per cent between the COVID-19 low of March 2020 and now--moving from Rs 15 to Rs 97 during the past two years or so.

So, what is the story here? Such explosive moves in the stock price tell you something about the nature of the company's business and the company itself.

What is LT Foods?

LT Foods has been traditionally a Basmati rice exporter under its well-known brand 'Daawat.' It has got a wide distribution network and operates through modern trade and e-commerce also. Its broad portfolio includes, brown rice, organic food and convenience foods.

It has a subsidiary in the US owing 'Royal' brand Basmati rice, which is a leading brand in the US. LT Foods' other brands include, Devaaya, Rozana, Ecolife, Heritage and Chef's Secretz.

More than four-fifths of its revenue comes from Basmati rice. The nature of the business is such the company has to maintain high inventories, by buying rice from more than 100,000 farmers mainly in Punjab and Haryana; and stocking it--entailing the company to have higher working capital needs.

The company is susceptible to changes in rice / paddy prices. A large part of its sales revenue emanates from exports and any adverse movements in dollar-rupee exchange rate may impact the company substantially.

It could be vulnerable to truant Indian monsoons. Higher commodity prices are likely to impact businesses of food companies adversely due to demand contraction by consumers in times of high prices.

It's depending on ready-to-eat (RTE) and ready-to-heat (RTH) foods to grow its business. The Middle East is a big market for LT Foods in Basmati rice.

The company is also present in HoReCa segment, supplying its products to hotels, restaurants and caterers.

Basmati rice industry is highly competitive. LT Foods' main competitors are KRBL Ltd, GRM Overseas Ltd and Chamanlal Setia Exports Ltd--all the three are listed on Indian stock exchanges.

It has reduced its debt in the past three years. Its long term credit is A/positive (pronounced singe A positive), according to CRISIL Ratings Ltd's report of 16Mar2022. The rating reflects improvement in its credit profile and profitability in the past three years.

It has got various overseas subsidiaries.

Why is the company paying very low dividends?

The dividend payout ratio has been an average of five per cent in the past five years, which is low. The company justifies the low dividends with the following: 1) using the profits as capital expenditure for growing its businesses, brand values and supply chains and 2) for debt reduction.

How are the sales and profit growing?

A substantial part of LT Foods' sales growth in the past two years has come from subsidiaries it acquired recently (one could check the difference between company's Standalone and Consolidated results to see the growth of overseas subsidiaries).

Who owns the company?

About 57 per cent of the equity share are owned by Ashok Kumar Arora, Vijay Kumar Arora and other family members. No shares of promoters have been pledged.

Institutional ownership is meagre at 4.8 per cent of the total shareholding (11 per cent of the free float). Retail investors own 89 per cent of the free float.

How are the valuations ratios?

Its price-earnings ratio is 11.2, price-to-book-value is 1.6 and price-to-sales is 0.6.

How are the company's debt metrics?

Its debt-equity ratio is 0.60. Even though it's slightly higher, this appears to be okay given the growth path and profitability prospects of the company. Based on the current available information, one could say the company's ability to service its debt is comfortable.

The Story

To come back to my original question, what is the story here?

COVID-19 Pandemic changed the outlook on food companies in India. Basmati rice industry got re-rated after March 2020. Earlier, such companies used to command a price-earnings ratio of less than five or six. Now, investors are willing to give P/E ratios north of 10 for them.

Specific to LT Foods, value migration seems to have benefited the company. Its acquisition of 'Royal' Basmati rice brand in the US has helped the company in pushing up its sales and profit margins. 'Royal' brand has more than 35 per cent market share in the US.

Operating profit margins for Basmati rice exporters have been traditionally in lower range.

LT Foods has forayed into other food businesses, diversifying into wheat flour, convenience foods and others. Last year, it picked up 30-per-cent stake in a Dutch food company, named Leev, which specialises in organic food.

It has lately acquired 51-per-cent stake in Golden Star Trading Inc.

This value migration has changed the complexion, in the minds of investors, from a mere trading company to a consumer food company. Hence, the stock price has moved spectacularly from Rs 15 to Rs 97 now (its current market cap is Rs 3,100 crore).

So What of the Future?

This is the trickiest part. If the value migration continues and the company continues to focus its energies on brand building and diversifying into other related businesses, the company is likely to show good growth in sales and profits--giving decent rewards to shareholders going forward.

It's trying to transition from a rice exporter to a consumer food company--claiming to move to a farm-to-fork model.

Eternal vigilance is the name of the game in stock markets. If LT Foods is able to grow in future without over-stretching its balance sheet (that is, using internal resources wisely and not depending too much on raising new equity or debt), investors may be able to reap rewards.

Investors should watch how the company will move from a commodity play to a brand play.

LT Foods could command price multiples closer to the marquee food companies in India only if it will be able to focus on the future path of the value migration chain.

Finally

An African cheetah's technique is extraordinary speed in hunting its prey in the savanna--but it has little endurance. Speed is the name of game for cheetahs. In contrast, a pack of wolves needs fortitude to hunt its prey, like, wild buffaloes in America. The pack tracks the prey for extraordinary lengths--relying on endurance--ultimately wearing down the prey.

In stock investing, investors with endurance have an edge over lightning-speed cheetahs.

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Note: market prices mentioned above are adjusted for corporate actions, like, stock split and bonus if any.

-------------------

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Primer on Credit Rating Scales

Speed Read on FDC Buyback Offer 2022

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Returns

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Market Cap

When Will Foreign Investors Stop Selling Indian Stocks?

Rise of Retail Investors and Demat a/cs in India

Indian Mutual Funds and The Art of Ripping Off Investors

Do Paint Stocks and Crude Oil Tango?

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

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Five-Minute Analysis of HUDCO Shares - vrk100 - 24Apr2022

Five-Minute Analysis of HUDCO Shares

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(Disclaimer: This is just for information purposes only; this is not an investment recommendation. Prospective investors should consult their investment advisors before making any trades.)

Equity shares of Housing & Urban Development Corporation Limited (HUDCO) are listed on BSE Limited and NSE (National Stock Exchange of India) Limited. Here is a brief analysis of HUDCO shares:

- Government of India owns 81.8% equity and LIC of India 5.8%; totaling 87.6% virtual ownership by the government

- free float is only 12.4%; price charts used by technical analysts are useless with such low free float

- low free float also means high possible manipulation by unscrupulous operators--but as this is 87.6% government-owned, there is little scope for manipulation

- it's a AAA-rated company; not because its profitability and business operations are excellent; but only because of implicit sovereign backstop emanating from GOI ownership of HUDCO

- it's a nodal agency for government projects for social housing and urban infrastructure; as such, the projects are on relatively safer ground (low credit risk) which is reflected in low gross and net NPA ratios of HUDCO

- gross and net NPA ratios are 4.9% and 1.1% respectively as on 31Dec2021

- it's a preferred lender for state government projects and public sector agencies

- of the total loan book, a whopping 97% is to the public sector

- government projects mean low profit margin and late realisations; creating cash flow problem for HUDCO; this is creating pressure on interest coverage ratio

- its capital adequacy ratio is high at 65%; with comfortable capital to grow its advances portfolio in future

- as it's a GOI company, there is a scope for government to arm twist the company to meet government's political needs; which may not be in alignment with the needs of shareholders

- HUDCO undertakes some projects for state governments; like, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana; the company could face problems with regard to timely realisations of monies from state governments; financial profile of several state governments is weak now

- there is a regulatory overhang on the company; as of now, the company does not meet Reserve Bank of India's norms to become a housing finance company (HFC, part of NBFC); HUDCO is seeking extension for meeting regulatory norms; future re-financing window from National Housing Bank (NHB) is also doubtful

- profitability is low; return on capital employed (ROCE) is just 11%, which is below cost of capital

- its price to book value is deceptively low at 0.53; because market seems to be finding the company's shares less attractive

- gross advances have remained stagnant in the past three years; which means its new loan disbursements have fallen in recent years as it's unable to fund new projects

- its current market price is Rs 36.50 per share; with a market cap of Rs 7,300 crore

- overall, my opinion is negative on HUDCO's equity shares even though valuation ratios appear to be attractive; I may change my opinion in future.

- - -

-------------------

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Primer on Credit Rating Scales

Speed Read on FDC Buyback Offer 2022

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Returns

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Market Cap

When Will Foreign Investors Stop Selling Indian Stocks?

Rise of Retail Investors and Demat a/cs in India

Indian Mutual Funds and The Art of Ripping Off Investors

Do Paint Stocks and Crude Oil Tango?

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

CFA Charter credentials - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

He blogs at:

Are Gilt Funds Attractive Now? - vrk100 - 24Apr2022

Are Gilt Funds Attractive Now?

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(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice even though the author is a CFA Charterholder. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)

(A follow up blog dated 05Mar2024 on how gilt funds performed in the past two years is available here)

Global bond yields have been surging since the start of 2021, driven mainly by higher inflationary expectations across the globe and in anticipation of inevitable increase of interest rates by central banks.

For example, the 10-year US Treasury note yield has risen by almost 200 basis points since January 2021; from about 0.93 per cent at the end of December 2019 to 2.90 per cent now (close 22Apr2022). More alarmingly, the 10-year Treasury yield has spurted by 140 basis points (or, 1.40 percentage points) year-to-date.

Indian Bond Yields

In India too, the 10-year government bond yields have been rising since July 2021. Since the start of 2022, the 10-year benchmark G-Sec yield has spiked by 72 basis points to 7.17 per cent now. In the past one year, the increase in yield is about 115 basis points (or, 1.15 percentage points).

Table 1: 10-year G-Sec yield graph for 25-year period >

(story continues below)

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I've written, over the years, comprehensively about Indian bond markets. If you're interested to know more about them, here are the links:

How to Invest in Gilt Funds?

Jittery bond markets - Is It Time to Invest?

Government Securities Market in India and Duration Management

Bond Basics - Know Everything About Bonds

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 31Mar2022

Saver's curse: Low Savings Rates and Liquid Mutual Fund Returns

India Macro Data 21Sep2021

Indian Savers and Negative Real Interest Rates

Global Bond Yields Surge

RBI Issues New 10-year G-Sec Paper

Stocks, Bonds, Rupee and Inflation - How Are They Interconnected?

RBI Announces USD-INR Sell / Buy Swap Auction

LAF Repo Rate: The Single Policy Rate

Update on Marginal Standing Facility

Bank Rate: Is It Relevant Now?

Primer on Market Stabilisation Scheme and Liquidity Management

Cash Management Bills

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Let us now turn to our main discussion today: Are Gilt Funds Worth Investing Now? Before we answer the question, let us understand a little about gilt funds.

What are Gilt Funds?

They are mutual funds that invest in government securities. As per SEBI, India's capital market regulator, gilt funds should invest at least 80 per cent of the total assets in G-Secs (across maturity). G-Secs are short for government securities.

A certain portion of your money, depending on your risk-taking ability and asset allocation, you can allocate for gilt funds.

What are Gilt-edged Securities?

In the old days, the Bank of England (BoE) on behalf of the British Government used to print the certificates on paper containing gilded (golden) edges--hence the name gilt-edged securities. Obviously, this is no longer the practice. In fact, most of the government securities now-a-days are in electronic / demat form.

In India, the term ‘government securities’ includes all bonds and treasury bills issued by the Central Government and state governments. These securities are normally referred to as "gilt-edged," as repayments of principal as well as interest are totally secured by sovereign guarantee.

In the US, government securities are known as Treasury securities or simply Treasurys.

What is a Government Security?

"Government security" means a security created and issued by the Government for the purpose of raising a public loan or for any other purpose as may be notified by Government of India. They are simply called as government bonds in popular parlance.

Practically, the governments are coming to you with a begging bowl to raise money!

Where do Gilt Funds Invest?

Gilt funds typically invest most of the monies they collect from unitholders in government securities, with maturities ranging from 91 days to 40 years. They invest a large part in bonds issued by Government of India and a small part in bonds issued by State Governments.

However, depending on the liquidity of the instruments, gilt funds invest most of the money in G-Secs with maturity ranging from three to 15 years. If they expect interest rates to rise, they invest more money in shorter-term papers. And in a falling interest rate environment, they invest more money in long-dated bonds.

A small portion of the assets they may invest in Treps or Tri party Repos for short term purposes depending on the view of the fund manager. “Tri-party Repo” means a repo contract where a third entity (apart from the borrower and lender), called a Tri-Party Agent, acts as an intermediary between the two parties to the repo to facilitate certain services.

How Much Return Can I Expect?

As with any market-based financial products, there are no guaranteed returns, even though gilt funds carry little default or credit risk. However, if you go by the past record, investors that could hold gilt funds for periods longer than three to five years could expect to generate annualised return ranging from six to 10 per cent.

Of course, there is no guarantee that you will get this return. It's hard to predict the interest rate movements. Moreover, we don't know how commodity prices behave in future; as of now, they are highly volatile. India, as a net importer of important commodities, is at the receiving end of the commodity cycle now.

You may check the past returns of gilt funds using websites like, Value Research, Rupee Vest, MoneyWorks4Me and others.

In an earlier blog, I evaluated mutual funds returns in India, along with those of gilt funds. Here, you can also find annual returns of gilt funds between 2014 and 2021.

As per Value Research Online, the average returns delivered by regular plans of gilt funds are 2.1 per cent, 7.2 per cent, 6.3 per cent and 8 per cent for one-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year periods respectively (3-, 5- and 10-year returns are annualised--data as of 22Apr2022). Returns for direct plans will be higher. More on the difference between direct and regular plans here.

What are the Risks?

We generally don't expect Government of India or State Governments to default on the government loans. As such, gilt funds don't carry any credit or default risk, as the chances of government default are practically nil.

However, government bonds may lose their value if interest rates start inching up in the economy (interest rate risk). Bond yields move inversely to bond prices--meaning bond prices fall if interest rates rise and vice versa.

For a short term period of time, say, one month to 18months, gilt fund investors are likely to lose money. However, if they hold the funds for longer periods of time, say two to three years, the chances of losing money with gilt funds are practically zero. Of course, much depends on how long the rising interest rate cycle lasts.

According to media reports, the finances of the State Governments in India are not up to the standard right now. If you have a strong view on State Governments, you may avoid gilt funds that have invested in bonds issued by State Governments.

Are Gilt Funds Suitable for Me?

It depends. If you're risk-averse, conservative and if your time horizon is minimum two to three years for the spare money you have, you can invest in gilt funds.

Are Gilt Funds Attractive Now?

As we've seen in Table 1 above, the benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield movements are volatile. Between March 2020 and July 2021, Reserve Bank of India was able to keep interest rates and G-Sec yields artificially low even though CPI (consumer price index) inflation has been running high persistently above the RBI's upper-bound level of six per cent since September of 2019.

India's CPI inflation for March 2022 is 6.95 per cent--driven by high prices of food, vegetables, fuel and clothing. Ahead of 2024 General Elections, persistently high inflation is going to affect the dynamics of India's political economy. The future inflationary trajectory will depend on how PM Modi government will react to rising inflationary expectations ahead of the 2024 elections.

Will political expediency trump sound economic management? The probability of the former is greater than the latter. As it is, the Central Government has got a large borrowing programme ahead of it. Much hope was kept on raising money from the IPO (initial public offer) of LIC of India. But media reports suggest that the government may pare the issue size of LIC IPO due to the current market upheaval.

The LIC IPO was supposed to have taken place in March 2022, but was postponed due to global turmoil brought on by Russia invading Ukraine.

Coming back to gilt funds, the 10-year benchmark G-Sec yield is 7.17 per cent now (close of 22Apr2022). The yield has risen by about 130 basis points in the past six months, putting downward pressure on the returns of gilt funds.

Depending on the actions of RBI, inflationary expectations, global developments and Indian government's needs, the government bond yields may harden (rise) further in the next one or two quarters. Of course, this is just my personal view. It's hard to predict interest rate movements.

One strategy here would be to invest in gilt funds at different levels of 10-year G-Sec yield--for example, one could start investing at 7.40 per cent yield; then at 7.60 per cent and up to 8.00 per cent yield level. Of course, you can change the strategy to suit your typical needs.

Once you invest between 7.40 per cent to 8.00 per cent yield level, you can remain calm for the next 18 to 30 months and take a call then. The investment here hinges on your view of interest rate cycle to a great extent.

In What Gilt Funds Should I Invest?

Let us say you've decided (if you have no expertise, you should consult your investor adviser before making any investments) to invest in gilt funds, the question then is in what funds should one invest.

I've curated a list of 13 gilt funds for the benefit of you. My selection is based on the funds' long-term track record, individual fund house comfort, size of the fund (with gilt funds, the higher the size of the fund, the better could be return prospects), fund manager experience and others. This is just for information purposes only. I'm not recommending them to any of you.

Table 2: Gilt Funds details (please click on the image to view better) >

Table 3: Gilt Funds annual returns (please click on the image to view better) >

Summing up

Gilt funds carry moderate risk for investors with a time horizon of two to three years. Here, the assumption is that the RBI and the Government of India may not allow the 10-year G-Sec yield to reach levels above 7.80 or 7.90 per cent.

As I've argued for several years, the monetary and fiscal authorities in India are the biggest manipulators in bond and foreign exchange markets. Investors should be aware of these matters before investing in gilt funds.

Depending on your asset allocation, risk appetite and your view of the interest rate cycle, you can devise an investment strategy for your personal requirements and start nibbling gilt funds till the benchmark 10-year G-Sec reaches yield levels of 7.60 to 8.00 per cent. Happy investing all of you!

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Note: Even though this blog is dated 24Apr2022, I could finish editing the blog only by the morning of 25Apr2022.

Additional data:

Table 4: Gilt Funds' AUM data and CPI inflation >

As the table 4 below shows, even though inflationary pressures have been high since Sep2019, RBI has kept its LAF repo rate stubbornly low at 4 per cent since May2020.

This AUM table reveals a strange pattern of investors. The AUM of gilt funds doubled between Mar2020 (Rs 9,300 crore) and Dec2020 (Rs 18,600 crore)--during the period, gilt fund investors may pat themselves with earning decent return of 7 to 10 per cent. But the real action was in Indian equity market--for example, BSE 200 index jumped by 64 per cent in the nine-month period through Dec2020 in what is seen as one of the biggest bounce-backs in Indian stock market history.

You could argue this is all hindsight--but the point is playing safe all the time with our money may not help us in earning optimum returns for our assets. I'm not looking to 'maximise,' but just to 'optimise' my returns.

Table 5: Screenshot from Value Research >

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-------------------

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Primer on Credit Rating Scales

Speed Read on FDC Buyback Offer 2022

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Returns

BSE Broad and Sector Indices Market Cap

When Will Foreign Investors Stop Selling Indian Stocks?

Rise of Retail Investors and Demat a/cs in India

Indian Mutual Funds and The Art of Ripping Off Investors

Do Paint Stocks and Crude Oil Tango?

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

References:

Tweet 20Dec2020 on Gilt Funds Compare

Tweet 20Dec2020 Gilt Funds Compare (with other Twitter threads on taxation of gilt funds)

Tweet 19Mar2021 Corporte bond funds vs gilt funds

Abbreviations used:

SEBI - Securities and Exchange Board of India

Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

CFA Charter credentials - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

He blogs at: