Showing posts with label Nifty 50 Equal weight index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nifty 50 Equal weight index. Show all posts

Tuesday, 9 December 2025

NSE's Backtesting Claims Child Indices Beat Parent Indices – But Does It Hold in the Real World?

NSE's Backtesting Claims Child Indices Beat Parent Indices – But Does It Hold in the Real World? 09Dec2025



 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)


 

1 Investor Interest in Smart Beta Indices and Passive Funds

In recent years, there has been a growing interest among investors in India in smart beta indices and the passive funds that track them. 

With the rise of smart beta strategies, there is now an increasing focus on alternative index strategies that aim to outperform traditional benchmarks by using factors such as value, size, momentum, quality and volatility.

Smart beta indices are designed to provide a systematic way to capture specific factors that have historically delivered higher returns than traditional market-capitalisation-weighted indices. As a result, both index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking these smart beta indices have seen a surge in popularity. 

These funds allow investors to gain exposure to these factor-based strategies without having to pick individual stocks, making it an attractive option for both retail and institutional investors. 

 

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Related articles:

Factor Investing in India: Do "Smart Beta" Indices Outperform Nifty 50 and Midcap 150? 24Nov2025

Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 Index: Has Quality Lost Its Edge? 10Aug2025

Decoding the Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50: A Midcap Strategy Built on Fundamentals 07Aug2025 

Passive Titans of India: The Top 10 Equity Indices by Fund Size 17Jul2025

India Flagship ETFs with Low Fees and Fair Trading Volumes 12Jun2025 
 
Low Expense Ratios, High Returns: Why Passive Equity Funds Matter 06Jun2025 
 
How to Buy Nifty Midcap 150 Index (passive funds) 03May2024

Analysis of Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index 12Sep2023

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2 What Are Parent and Child Indices?

In the context of smart beta and traditional market indices, "parent indices" refer to the broad-based market indices, such as the Nifty 50, BSE 500 or Nifty Midcap 150, which represent the entire market or a large portion of it. The parent indices are typically weighted by market capitalisation, meaning that the larger companies have a bigger influence on the index’s performance. 

The "child indices," on the other hand, are subsets or variations of these parent indices. Child indices are often constructed by applying specific filters or rules, such as selecting stocks based on a particular factor like low volatility or high dividend yield. Essentially, child indices are a way to segment the broader market to target specific investment characteristics and / or risk exposures.

For instance, the Nifty Midcap 150 might be considered a parent index, and a child index could be something like the Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index, which includes the 50 most momentum stocks from the Nifty Midcap 150 universe. In this case, the parent index represents the entire midcap stock market, while the child index focuses on a specific subset based on momentum.

Chart showing select Nifty indices of Parent versus Child Indices >

 


3 Do Child Indices Outperform Parent Indices in Practice?

The NSE Indices Ltd claims that, based on their backtesting of historical data, child indices most of the time outperform parent indices. NSE Indices Ltd is the index provider of Nifty indices. 

The premise behind this assertion is that child indices, by focusing on specific factors like low volatility, momentum, high dividends or value can outperform the broader market index over time.

In theory, this makes sense. If the underlying factors in a child index are systematically designed to exploit inefficiencies in the market, then they may provide higher returns than the broader market. 

For example, low-volatility stocks tend to experience less dramatic price swings, which might help mitigate losses during market downturns, potentially leading to better risk-adjusted returns.

However, while this theory may hold in some cases, the real-world performance of these child indices can be more complex. In practice, the performance of child indices often depends on the specific factors they target and how those factors perform in various market cycles.



4 Examining Funds Tracking Smart Beta Indices

(Note: In a previous blog on factor investing / smart beta investing last month, I thoroughly examined whether select "smart beta" indices outperform broad based indices, like, Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap. In the current blog, the attempt is to find out whether funds tracking smart beta child indices outperform their respective funds tracking parent indices)

To get a clearer picture of whether child indices really do outperform parent indices, it’s useful to look at some of the funds that track these smart beta strategies.

For example, consider a fund that tracks a low-volatility index (a child index) and compare it to a fund that tracks a broader market index like the Nifty 50. Over short periods, it’s possible that the low-volatility strategy could outperform the broader market, especially during periods of high market volatility. 

Conversely, during strong bull markets, the low-volatility strategy might underperform as it tends to underweight higher-growth, more volatile stocks.

Similarly, funds tracking momentum indices—child indices that emphasize stocks with strong medium term performance—could outperform in a trending market, where momentum plays a significant role. 

On the other hand, during periods of market stagnation or reversal, momentum-based strategies might underperform as the stocks driving the index may see sharp declines.

Let us see whether some of the smart beta funds have outperformed their parent indices in practice:

Example 1: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, Bandhan Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30, UTI Nifty 200 Momentum 30 and UTI Nifty 200 Quality 30 with Axis Nifty 100 Index fund tracking parent index Nifty 100.

(Note: In the absence of any passive funds based on Nifty 200, Nifty 100 is used as a proxy for Nifty 200 -- it may be noted the differences in actual returns between these two indices are small)

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >


This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year basis, while the Bandhan Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 index fund outperformed its parent index fund, Axis Nifty 100 index fund; passive child funds based on Nifty 200 Momentum 30 and Nifty 200 Quality 30 failed to beat the parent index 

>  On a 2-year basis, Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 (child) scored higher returns compared to the parent Nifty 100; while the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 (child) failed to beat the parent Nifty 100

> On a 3-year basis, both Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 (child) Nifty 200 Momentum 30 (child) have beaten the parent index Axis Nifty 100's performance

> as stated above, volatility factor tends to outperform when markets face rough weather (Indian markets have been highly volatile in the past 15 months); while momentum factor is underperforming in the past 15 months due to loss of momentum in the market 

 

The following image from Rupee Vest shows the performance of  SBI Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF (child) versus Nippon India ETF Nifty 100 (parent)

> On a 1-year, 2-year and 5-year basis, child index fund, SBI Nifty 200 Quality 30 fails to beat parent index fund, Nippon India ETF Nifty 100

> However, on a 3-year basis, child index outperformed parent index

 

Example 2: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, Tata Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum Index fund and DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 index fund with parent index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 index fund >

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >



This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year, 2-year and 3-year basis, both the child index funds, Tata Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 Index fund and DSP Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 index fund underperformed the parent index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 index fund

 

Example 3: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, Nippon India Nifty 500 Momentum 50 index fund and UTI Nifty 500 Value 50 index fund; with parent index fund, Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 index fund >

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >


This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year basis, both the child indices, Nifty 500 Momentum 50 and Nifty 500 Value 50 underperformed the parent index, Nifty 500 (as stated above, Momentum factor is faring badly in the past 15 months) -- however, value factor seems to be recovering in the past six months

> on a 2-year basis, child index Nifty 500 Value 50 outperformed parent index Nifty 500 (it may recalled Value factor has done well in 2023 and 2024, though it did poorly in 2025 and 2022)

> track record for three year returns is not available for the above child index funds 

 

Example 4: Comparing the performance of index funds (tracking child indices), namely, DSP Nifty 50 Equal Weight index fund and Nippon India Nifty 50 Value 20 index fund; with parent index fund, Nippon India Nifty 50 index fund >

Image showing their performance >

Click on the image to view better >


This Value Research weblink can be used to track these funds in real time.

The above image shows:

> on a 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 7-year basis, child index Nifty 50 Equal Weight index has consistently outperformed its parent index Nifty 50

> but child index Nifty 50 Value 20 has a mixed record; on a 3-year basis, it has delivered better returns compared to its parent Nifty 50 -- however, on a 1-year and 2-year basis, Nifty 50 Value 20 underperformed its parent Nifty 50 

 

Summary of the above four examples

One standout performance is the consistent outperformance of Nifty 50 Equal Weight over its parent Nifty 50; whereas factors, like, Low volatility, momentum and quality have shown varied performance depending on market conditions.

Nifty 50 Equal Weight has been doing well since 2020 outperforming Nifty 50 in every calendar year (2020-2025); though it underperformed Nifty 50 prior to 2020 (see chart below for data). 

As you know, Nifty 50 is market-cap weighted, meaning the largest companies by market cap (like HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and Infosys) dominate the index. The top five or 10 stocks can often make up a significant portion of the index’s overall performance.

Nifty 50 Equal Weight, on the other hand, gives the same weight to all 50 stocks, meaning no single stock has an oversized influence on the performance. This creates more balanced exposure across the index, mitigating the risk of heavy concentration in a few large-cap stocks. 

During the half-yearly rebalancing time (March and September), each stock will be adjusted to a weight of nearly 2 per cent each in the Nifty 50 Equal Weight index.  

There is no guarantee Nifty 50 Equal weight will continue to deliver superior performance versus Nifty 50. 

The Nifty 50 Equal Weight index outperformed Nifty 50 during periods when mid-cap and small-cap stocks experienced strong growth, particularly in 2024, 2023 and 2021, which were recovery years post-pandemic.

This reinforces the importance of market conditions when deciding between market-cap weighted indices and Equal Weight strategies. 

What would cause Nifty 50 Equal Weight to underperform Nifty 50? 

The Nifty 50 Equal Weight index underperforms when the market rally becomes narrow and heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap stocks. This is because the traditional Nifty 50 is dominated by its top 5-10 stocks (like Financials and certain IT/Oil & Gas heavyweights), which disproportionately drive returns during periods of market polarisation. 

Furthermore, the Nifty 50 Equal Weight's inherent value / contrarian tilt—by selling winners to rebalance—works against it when market momentum is firmly with the mega-cap stocks. Lastly, its higher exposure to relatively smaller, often more volatile, Nifty 50 constituents can also lead to deeper cuts during market corrections. 

Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

 

Calendar year returns of select "smart beta" indices versus Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150 (see previous blog for more) >




5 Conclusion 

The idea that child indices can outperform parent indices is intriguing, and there is evidence to suggest that, in some market conditions, these factor-based indices can deliver superior returns. However, it’s important for investors to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future results.

In practice, child indices do not always outperform parent indices, and it’s crucial to take a holistic view of the market, including risk considerations and long-term investment objectives, when evaluating such strategies.

In India, the track record for smart beta funds and passive funds based on smart beta indices is still relatively short, with several funds having only three to five years of performance data.

While backtesting shows that child indices often outperform their parent indices, real-world performance hasn’t always lived up to these expectations.

Even the asset size of smart beta passive funds is smaller compared to passive funds based on Nifty 50 or Nifty Midcap 150 (for more, see blog on passive titans of India discussing asset size)

In practice, many smart beta funds struggle to deliver superior returns compared to traditional passive funds that track broad market indices. This discrepancy highlights the challenges of translating historical data-driven strategies into consistent real-world success.

Ultimately, the performance of child indices relative to parent indices varies depending on the market environment, time horizon and the specific factors the child indices focus on. While there are instances where child indices outperform, there are also periods when the broader market (parent indices) may perform better.

  

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References:
 

Tweet 02Mar2025 The Baloney of Smart Beta Indices

Nifty Return Profile (strategy indices) 

NSE Index dashboard monthly 

NSE Index dashboard archives 

NSE Indices Research Papers / working papers 

Nifty Indices factsheets  

Methodology document for Nifty indices, including smart beta indices 

Screenshot of returns of Nifty 50 versus Nifty 50 Equal Weight from 2000 to 2020 > source Nifty 50 Equal Weight whitepaper 24Feb2021 >


 

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Monday, 24 November 2025

Factor Investing in India: Do "Smart Beta" Indices Outsmart Nifty 50 and Midcap 150?

Factor Investing in India: Do "Smart Beta" Indices Outsmart Nifty 50 and Midcap 150? 24Nov2025



 
 

(The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)


(Check P.S. dated 24Mar2026 with trailing and calendar year returns of smart beta indices; and Check P.S. dated 26Nov2025, at the end of the blog, for trailing returns of passive funds linked to "smart beta" indices)

 

  

Explore how the so-called smart beta indices have performed over the years in comparison to broader indices, like, Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150 indices. 

 

Smart beta indices sit between passive and active investing. Unlike traditional market-cap-weighted indices such as the Nifty 50 or Nifty Midcap 150, the so-called smart beta indices use rule-based, transparent methodologies focused on specific factors—characteristics historically linked to better risk-adjusted returns.

In India, NSE has developed a wide range of Nifty Smart Beta / Factor Indices. This is a brief analysis of some of the smart beta indices.

1. Key Factors Used in Indian Smart Beta Indices:

1 Quality: Measures financial strength—high return on equity, low debt and stable earnings.

Nifty indices: Nifty 200 Quality 30 and Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50.

 

2 Value: Focuses on undervalued stocks using metrics like P/E ratio, P/B ratio and dividend yield.

Nifty indices: Nifty 500 Value 50 and Nifty 200 Value 30.

3 Low Volatility: Selects stocks with lower price fluctuations, aiming for smoother returns and downside protection.
 
Nifty indices: Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 and Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30.
 
4 Momentum: Tracks stocks showing strong recent performance on the assumption that trends persist.
 
Nifty indices: Nifty 200 Momentum 30 and Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50.

5 Alpha: Captures stocks with strong market-adjusted performance, relying on alpha scores.
 
Nifty indices: Nifty Alpha 50 and Nifty 200 Alpha 30. 
 

(article continues below)

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Related articles:

Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 Index: Has Quality Lost Its Edge? 10Aug2025

Decoding the Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50: A Midcap Strategy Built on Fundamentals 07Aug2025 

Passive Titans of India: The Top 10 Equity Indices by Fund Size 17Jul2025

India Flagship ETFs with Low Fees and Fair Trading Volumes 12Jun2025 
 
Low Expense Ratios, High Returns: Why Passive Equity Funds Matter 06Jun2025 
 
How to Buy Nifty Midcap 150 Index (passive funds) 03May2024

Analysis of Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index 12Sep2023

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2. Return Performance:
 
National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), over the years, has developed several smart beta indices. Of them, only eight indices have been taken for this analysis. The long term and annual return data of these indices are compared with broader indices, namely, Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150. 

The returns of these indices are total returns, including dividends. Smart beta indices are selected based on the total assets (AUM or assets under management) of passive funds (both exchange traded funds or ETFs and index funds) tracking the indices. 

Smart beta indices with the highest AUM are given at the top of the table, starting from, Nifty 200 Momentum 30 (highest AUM) to Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 (lowest AUM among the eight selected). You could check a previous blog for top equity indices and their AUM. 
 
Table 1: Annual returns of select "smart beta" indices >
 
(click on the image to view better) 
 

Table 2: Trailing returns of select "smart beta" indices >

(click on the image to view better)

 


Observations from the above two tables >

A. Calendar Year performance trends:

> Momentum indices, like, Nifty 200 Momentum 30 and Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50, have done well in several years, like, 2017, 2021, 2023 and 2024

> but in 2025 so far, momentum factor has performed poorly as Indian stock markets lost momentum in Sep2024 and struggled for better part of 2025 versus global peers

> Low volatility factor (Nifty 100 Low Vol 30) does not have a negative return year in the past 11 years, showing resilience

> Low volatility indices deliver smoother returns but lag in strong rallies. In 2024, it underperformed sharply. 

> Quality factors show consistent performance in general; but they suffered from under performance in 2025 and 2024 as the factor is out of fear with investors in recent years

> Quality factor fails to give spectacular returns delivered by momentum factors; it's likely quality factors will do well in prolonged bear markets 

> Nifty 50 Equal Weight has been doing well since 2020 outperforming Nifty 50 in every calendar year (2020-2025); though it underperformed Nifty 50 prior to 2020

 

B. Trailing performance trends: 

>  On a 3-year, 5-year and 10-year basis, momentum factors have done exceedingly well compared to lacklustre performance from quality and low volatility factors

> According to the above data, momentum is the long-term winner among the select smart beta indices

> Low volatility factor tends to provide downside protection

> Equal Weight is a bet on broad-based markets, outperforming during periods when mid-weight stocks participate in rallies 

> High AUM smart beta strategies reflect actual investor preference and capital flows

> It is not surprising that Momentum leads the list 

 

3. Factor Performance Cycles: Momentum vs Low Volatility vs Quality:
 
A clear pattern that emerges from the data is that no single smart beta factor consistently outperforms every year. Instead, factor returns in India tend to be cyclical.

Momentum shines in strong, trending markets (for example, 2017, 2020–2021), but it can struggle sharply when market leadership rotates or when sharp corrections occur (for example, 2018, 2022, 2025 YTD).

Low Volatility performs best during risk-off environments or when broader indices experience drawdowns, such as in 2018 and 2025. It acts like a defensive shield.

Quality tends to do well in uncertain or fundamentally driven markets, offering steady performance with fewer drawdowns. It seldom tops the charts but rarely collapses.
 

4. Concluding remarks

Smart beta indices in India show clear performance cycles, with no single factor leading in all market conditions. Momenttum has delivered the strongest long-term returns but is also the most volatile, excelling mainly in trending or bullish phases. 


Low volatility and quality factors tend to outperform during uncertain or corrective periods, providing steadier and more defensive returns. Benchmarks like Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150 often fall between these extremes, with midcaps offering higher but riskier long-term returns. 

Overall, the data show that factor leadership rotates over time, making diversification across factors a sensible approach for most investors. 

  

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References:
 

Tweet thread 24No2025 - Factor Investing in India; do smart beta indices outperform parent indices?

Tweet 02Mar2025 The Baloney of Smart Beta Indices

Nifty Return Profile (strategy indices) 

NSE Index dashboard monthly 

NSE Index dashboard archives 

NSE Indices Research Papers / working papers 

Nifty Indices factsheets  

Methodology document for Nifty indices, including smart beta indices 

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P.S. dated 24Mar2026: Calendar and Trailing returns of smart beta indices as at the end of 23Mar2026 >  

This is an update of trailing and calendar year returns of the so-called smart beta indices based on Nifty indices. The trailing returns are as at the end of 23Mar2025 and calendar year returns are from 2015 to 2025 >

Check two data images attached below > 

Overall snapshot:

Smart beta indices in India are going through a broad short-term drawdown as of late March 2026, but medium- to long-term returns remain healthy across most factors.

Short-term momentum (1–3 months):

Across nearly all indices, 1-month returns are around minus 10 to minus 14 per cent and 3-month returns are also deeply negative. Momentum and quality variants have been hit slightly harder than the broad Nifty 50. This indicates a broad-based correction rather than factor-specific weakness.

1-year performance:

Most indices are flat to negative over 1 year. Nifty 50 is around minus 2.5 per cent. Momentum and quality indices are weaker, with some in the minus 3 to minus 4.5 per cent range. Equal weight and midcap indices are slightly better, with low single-digit positive returns. This suggests factor rotation and lack of clear leadership over the past year.

Medium-term (3–5 years):

Returns remain strong. Most smart beta indices deliver roughly 13 to 21 per cent annualised over 3 years and about 10 to 20 per cent over 5 years. Momentum and midcap momentum stand out on the higher end, while quality and low volatility are more moderate. 

Long-term (10 years):

All indices show solid double-digit annualised returns, generally between 12 and 21 per cent. Momentum and midcap momentum are among the top performers. Even defensive factors like low volatility and quality deliver respectable long-term outcomes. 

Calendar year trends:

Returns are highly cyclical. Strong years like 2021 and 2023 show very high gains across most factors, often above 30 to 70 per cent in momentum strategies. Weak years like 2018, 2022, and now 2025 show sharp drawdowns, especially for momentum. Low volatility tends to fall less in bad years but also lags in strong bull markets.

Factor behaviour insights:

Momentum is the most volatile, with extreme highs and lows. It outperforms strongly in trending bull phases but corrects sharply during reversals.

Low volatility is more stable, protecting better in downturns but lagging in rallies.
Quality delivers steadier, mid-range performance with less extreme swings.
Equal weight benefits during broader market participation phases.
Midcap-based strategies amplify both upside and downside.

Current takeaway:

The current phase looks like a cyclical correction after strong prior years, not a structural breakdown. Short-term pain is widespread, but long-term factor performance remains intact. Diversification across factors and patience remain key.
 



 

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P.S. dated 26Nov2025: Review of performance of smart beta funds:

While we had on 24Nov2025 analysed the performance of benchmark returns of several smart beta indices, we had not commented on the performance of smart beta funds (both index funds and ETFs) that are tracking the smart beta indices. The following charts provide information on the trailing returns of the smart beta funds:

 

Chart 1: Trailing returns of smart beta passive funds and benchmark returns tracking Nifty 200 Momentum 30 TRI index >

 


Chart 2: Trailing returns of smart beta passive funds and benchmark returns tracking Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 TRI index >


Charts 3 and 4: Trailing returns of smart beta passive funds and benchmark returns tracking Nifty 200 Quality 30 TRI and Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 TRI indices >

 


Observations from the above charts >

> none of the above passive funds have more than five year track record, except one fund

> most of the passive funds are of recent origin, lacking long term track record

>  the expense ratios of several passive funds are high; raising doubts about the investability of several funds

>  all data are as at the end of 25Nov2025

> all data of index funds are for regular plans

> 2-year to 5-year return data are annualised

> the actual performance of the passive funds is lower than the benchmark returns of the respective indices

> there is no guarantee passive funds will match the benchmark returns, though they may try to do so as per the investment mandate 

> For ETFs or exchange traded funds, you need to check the volume data also 

 

Rebalancing frequency and rebalancing months of select smart beta indices and their parent indices (Data from Nifty Indices Methodology Document as of Nov2025) >


 

 

Expense ratios of Direct Plans of Passive funds discussed above >


Updated chart: Calendar year returns of select smart beta indices >
 


 

Comparative charts of some smart beta funds from Rupee Vest >

1. returns and expense ratios >


 2. standard deviation, Sharpe ratio and valuation ratios >


 3. large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap weights and top 10 stocks >


 

 

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Disclosure:  I've got a vested interest in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets.

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