Sunday, 25 July 2021

The Swirling Markets - VRK100 - 25Jul2021

The Swirling Markets 

Global stock markets are in uptrend, especially the US stocks with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing at all time highs last Friday at 35,062, 4,412 and 14,837 respectively.

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Read more: Fed Tapering is Postponed

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Several investors are sceptical of the extreme optimism in the markets. This has been the state of affairs for the past one year after markets rose spectacularly from their violent lows in March of 2020, following the outbreak of Corona Virus pandemic.

It's not always a good idea to look for reasons behind market movements. Maybe, we should consider drifting along the markets for some time. That doesn't mean we should throw away our caution to the wind. 

It may be argued that global stock markets are at elevated levels due to a combination of easy money policies of central banks and optimism about global growth in the next two to three years.

Indian stock movement seems to be a blend of global and local. At the global level, markets may be forcing the hands of monetary and fiscal authorities to continue to remain accommodative.

The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 indices are near to their all-time highs, closing at 52,976 and 15,856 respectively last Friday. The USD-INR (dollar-rupee) closed at 74.41 and the 10-year G-Sec yield (6.10% mat 2031) at 6.16 per cent. Year-to-date, mid-cap and small-cap stocks have been doing much better than large-cap stocks in India.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has been moving in extreme range year to date. From a low of 0.92 per cent at the start of 2021, the yield quickly moved to a high of 1.75 per cent by end of March and now the yield has cooled off currently to 1.28 per cent. 

Even the US 30-year bond yield exhibited the same swings, moving from 1.65 per cent in January 2021 to 2.50 per cent by mid-March before climbing down quickly currently to 1.92 per cent.

Even though the markets interpreted the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement of June 16th as hawkish, the US yields have fallen substantially since then. It is significant to note that the narrative of a hawkish Fed has proven to be wrong by bond markets.

As you know, asset prices (be it stocks, bonds or currencies) are not showing their real values because central banks around the world have distorted and destroyed the natural price discovery mechanism of markets. With so much zero-cost money sloshing around, how do we know the correct price of these assets?

It's better to watch the movement of major currencies, rather than looking at stocks and bonds alone. Any big movement in macro economy should reflect first in currencies. The US dollar index, DXY, moved from 103 to 90 in the past past 18 months. And now it's around 93--not a big movement if you consider a slightly longer period.

My theory is recent market movements in stocks indicate that markets may be expecting or may be forcing the hands of central banks (like the Fed and ECB) to remain accommodative and keep the liquidity taps open.

Risks always come from the unknown. The risk may not be from the virulent Delta variant of the Corona Virus or from rising inflationary expectations. 

Let's wait and watch. As discussed earlier, it's no use scratching our heads over market movements very often. There are always some under currents, which we fail to notice very often.

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Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100  

Thursday, 22 July 2021

Questions & Answers on State Bank of India - VRK100 - 22Jul2021

 Questions and Answers on State Bank of India 

 

 
(Prepared by RamaKrishna Vadlamudi, Hyderabad; all these questions are related to India's largest bank State Bank of India and data are India-related)

1) Total number of customers in State Bank of India (SBI) are 45.92 crore (as on 31 March 2021)

2) SBI's market share in deposits is 23.3% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
3) SBI's market share in advances is 19.8% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
4) Total number of bank branches in SBI is 22,219 (as on 31 March 2021)
 
5) Total BC (banking correspondent) outlets in SBI are 71,968 (as on 31 March 2021)
 
6) SBI's market share in number of POS (point of sale) is 13.2% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
7) SBI's market share in debit card spends is 29.2% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
8) Total number of financial inclusion accounts in SBI are 16.2 crore (as on 31 March 2021)
 
9) The shareholding of President of India in SBI paid-up capital is 57.6% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
10) The authorised capital of SBI is Rs 5,000 crore (as on 31 March 2021)
 
11) The paid-up capital of SBI is Rs 892.50 crore (as on 31 March 2021)
 
12) What rank does SBI have in market capitalisation (market cap) among Indian banks? 
 
SBI's rank is third among Indian banks in terms of market cap. Its market cap as on date is Rs 376,000 crore; while HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have Rs 800,000 crore and Rs 454,000 crore respectively.
 
13) What is the dividend paid by SBI to its equity holders in June 2021? 
 
Rs 4 per equity share.
 
14) What is the credit rating given by Crisil Ltd for Rs 5,000-crore SBI Tier 1 bonds (under Basel III)? 
 
It is AA+/Stable (Double A Plus, stable).
 
15) The CASA deposits ratio of SBI is 46.2% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
16) The total capital adequacy ratio (under Basel III) of SBI is 13.74% -- of which Tier 1 ratio is 11.44% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
17) What is the share of SBI in SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd?
 
It is 55.50%. (as on 31 March 2021)
 
18) Who is the chairman of SBI General Insurance Co Ltd?
 
Dinesh Kumar Khara
 
19) Who is the chairman of SBI Capital Markets Ltd? 
 
Dinesh Kumar Khara
 
20) Total numbers of overseas customers on-boarded through the SBI YONO platform are 40,000 (as on 31 March 2021) (YONO is SBI's digital platform providing seamless transactions to its customers through YONO Mobile App and YONO Website -- YONO stands for You Need Only One)
 
21) Countries where SBI YONO has been launched -- the UK, Maldives, Canada, Mauritius, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
 
22) What is the share of SBI in Jio Payments Bank Ltd? 
 
It is 30 per cent.
 
23) SBI's provision coverage ratio (PCR) is 87.75% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
24) SBI's gross NPA ratio is 4.98% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
25) The shareholding of SBI in Yes Bank Ltd is 30% (as on 31 March 2021)
 
26) Is it correct to say Yes Bank is an associate of SBI? 
 
It is correct. (SBI infused capital to the tune of Rs 1,760 crore in  Yes Bank in July 2020 as part of the government restructuring of troubled Yes Bank).
 
27) Number of subsidiaries owned by SBI is 27 (as on 31 March 2021)
 
28) What is the share price of SBI? 
 
Rs 422 per share as on 22nd of July 2021
 
29) Is SBI a domestic systemically important bank (D-SIB) as per Reserve Bank of India (RBI)? 
 
Yes, SBI is a D-SIB along with HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.
 

30) When did SBI issue GDRs or GDR shares (global depository receipts)? 

 

They were issued in 1996 and they are listed on London Stock Exchange (LSE).

- - -

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100  

 

 

Banking Questions & Answers 71 - VRK100 - 22Jul2021

Banking Questions & Answers 71 

(Prepared by RamaKrishna Vadlamudi, Hyderabad):

1) As per Reserve Bank of India (RBI), what rate of interest banks pay on overdue domestic term deposits?

Savings account rate or the contracted interest rate on matured term deposit, whichever is lower.

2) What are India's latest foreign exchange reserves?

USD 612 billion or Rs 46 lakh crore (approximate figure)--exact figure is USD 611.90 billion or Rs 45.67 lakh crore as on 9th of July, 2021.

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Read more: Fed Tapering is Postponed

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3) What is the current Bank Rate?

4.25 per cent (set by Reserve Bank of India)

4) What is the full form of LIBOR?

London Inter-bank offered rate.

5) What is the full form of MCLR?

Marginal cost-of-fund-based lending rate.

6) Banks charge interest rate on loans and advances at monthly rests except in the case of which advances?

Agricultural. Banks charge interest on agricultural loans based on crop / harvesting/ marketing seasons.

7) Name the bank into which Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) was amalgamated in Nov2020 .

DBS Bank India Ltd.

8) Which entities will take over the troubled Punjab & Maharashtra Coop Bank Ltd?

PMC Bank will be taken over by Centrum Financial Services Ltd and Bharat Pe. This as per the 'in-principle' approval given by Reserve Bank of India in June 2021.

9) What currency is abbreviated as CHF?

Swiss Franc

10) As per Reserve Bank of India, what is the maximum balance in savings bank account a customer can have in a payment bank (like Paytm Payments Bank Ltd)?

Rs 2 lakh per individual customer (limit raised in April 2021 from Rs 1 lakh).


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Related articles:  

Questions & Answers on State Bank of India-VRK100-22Jul2021

101 Questions & Answers for Bank Interview-VRK100-05Oct2011

101 Questions & Answers-Interview for Bank Promotions-VRK100-08Nov2010

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11)  What is a Bad Bank?

In the Union Budget for 2021-22, the Government of India announced a proposal for setting up the National Asset Reconstruction Company Limited (NARCL), popularly termed as a “bad bank”, to consolidate and take over non-performing assets (NPA) from banks.

12) What is maximum limit of RBI's Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) under which resident individuals can send money abroad?

Maximum limit is USD 250,000 per financial year (April to March in India)

13) As per RBI, what is a substandard advance?

A substandard advance is one, which remains non-performing for a period less than or equal to 12 months.

14) As per RBI, what are unclaimed deposits?

All accounts in India which have not been operated for 10 years.

15) What are risk weighted assets (RWA)?

Risk weighted assets are calculated as per risk weights given to each asset (funded/ non-funded) as per RBI norms.

16) What is credit risk?

When the credit quality of borrowers or counterparties is decreased, a bank is exposed to possible losses. This is the credit risk for banks.

17) How do you define short-term credit facilities?

Short term facilities are credit facilities (funded and / or non-funded) for less than one year.

18) What is a slippage in relation to NPAs?

Slippage refers to new accretion to non-performing assets (NPAs) during a period.

19) What is pre-shipment credit?

Pre-shipment credit means any bank loan or advance to an exporter for financing the manufacturing or packing of goods prior to shipment (basically, working capital expenses).

20) Is TDS (tax deduction at source) applicable on interest paid by bank on NRO (Non Resident Ordinary) accounts?

Yes, as per Income Tax Act. (TDS is not applicable on interest paid on NRE accounts).

21) What is the minimum term for which a bank customer has to make a fixed deposit which is eligible for Section 80C tax deduction?

Five years. And maximum amount is Rs 1.50 lakh in a financial year per individual.

22) What is a PSLC?

Priority sector lending certificates (PSLCs) are certificates that are issued against priority sector loans for banks. They allow banks to meet any shortfall in targets set by RBI under priority sector lending.

23) What is net interest income?

Net interest income is the difference between the interest income and the interest expenses.

24) What are bulk deposits?

Rupee term deposits of Rs. 1 Crore and above on which banks are permitted to offer differential rates of interest.

25) What is the minimum tenor of a term deposit?

It's seven days as per Reserve Bank of India.

26) What are the timings of RTGS?

RTGS (Real Time Gross Settlement) is available 24x7x365 (throughout all 24 hours, every day of the week and year) with effect from December 14, 2020.

27) Does Reserve Bank of India maintain IMPS (Immediate Payment Service)?

No. IMPS is maintained by NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India).

28) What is the maximum amount a customer can deposit in a PPF (Public Provident Fund) account?

Rs 150,000 in a financial year.

29) Which body recommends high-level public sector bank appointments to Government of India?

Banks Board Bureau, headquartered in Bombay.

30) What is the current rate of interest on India Post Office savings account?

Four per cent per annum.

31) What is the minimum threshold of default for filing CIRP (corporate insolvency resolution process) under IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016)?

Rs one crore (raised from Rs 1 lakh in March 2020)

32) Which company acquired Dewan Housing Finance Corp Ltd (DHFL) under CIRP (corporate insolvency resolution process) of IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016)?

Piramal Enterprises Ltd acquired DHFL in June 2021.

33) When was Reserve Bank of India (RBI) established?

RBI was established in 1935.

34) A bank's revaluation reserves are part of___:

Tier 1 capital. In March 2016, Reserve Bank of India allowed banks to treat revaluation reserves as part of Tier 1 capital, subject to conditions.

35) What is the maximum insured amount for bank deposits under DICGC (Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation)?

Rs 500,000 for each depositor in each bank.

36) A commercial paper can be issued for a minimum maturity of how many days?

Seven.

37) Name of the key financial ratio used by a bank for term loan (e.g., equipment finance).

DSCR. It is debt-service coverage ratio used for term loans.

38) What is the current statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) for banks set by RBI?

18 per cent.

39) What raw material is used for printing banknotes (paper currency) in India?

100% cotton is used for printing of banknotes in India.

40) Who has created Rupee Symbol?

The symbol for Indian Rupee was designed by Dr Dharmalingam Udaya Kumar.

41) How many public sector banks (PSBs) are there in India?

As of July 2021, there are 12 PSBs in India. They are: (please click on the image for better view) >


42) What is ‘paripassu’ charge?

A ‘paripassu’ charge gives lenders a right to the property on which a charge is created in proportion to the amount lent to the debtor.

43) When were interest rates on bank SB account deregulated?

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deregulated savings bank deposit (SB) interest rates effective October 25, 2011.

44) Due to Corona Virus Pandemic,  interest on interest charged by banks and NBFCs was waived by Govt of India in 2020. How much amount did Govt of India propose to spend on this?

Rs 6,500 crore.

45) What is the minimum threshold of default for filing CIRP (corporate insolvency resolution process) under IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016)?

Rs one crore (raised in March 2020 from Rs 1 lakh)

46) Which company acquired Essar Steel Ltd under CIRP (corporate insolvency resolution process) of IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016)?

ArecelorMittal Nippon Steel India Ltd.

47) What is IBBI?

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India. It regulates insolvency professionals and processes under IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016).

48) Who is the chairman of IBBI (The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India)?

Dr M.S.Sahoo

49) What is the current interest rate offered for savings bank accounts by India's premier bank State Bank of India?  

It is 2.70 per cent per annum, paid at quarterly rests.

50) When was MCLR (Marginal-cost of funds based lending rate) system introduced?

MCLR was introduced with effect from  April 1, 2016. Base Rate System (BRS) was effective from July 1, 2010 and was replaced by MCLR. BPLR (Benchmark Prime Lending Rate) was effective from November 2003 and was replaced by BRS.

51) What is PCA framework?

PCA framework is Prompt Corrective Action process whereby Reserve Bank of India (RBI) takes action against troubled banks, when the fundamentals of a bank start deteriorating. PCA is based on certain parameters like, capital adequacy ratio, profitability, asset quality and leverage.

52) In case of fraud accounts, how much provisioning for the amount involved has to be made by banks as per RBI guidelines?

100% provisioning is needed for fraud accounts.

53) As part of Yes Bank Reconstruction Scheme approved by Government of India, bonds worth nearly Rs 8,400 crore issued by Yes Bank were written down in March 2020 causing huge loss to bondholders. Name the bonds.

Additional Tier 1 bonds or AT1 bonds.

54) To attract more deposits, a bank wants to pay interest on savings bank accounts at monthly rests. Can the bank pay interest at monthly rests?

Yes, it can. RBI mandates banks to pay interest on domestic savings bank accounts at quarterly or shorter intervals.

55) What is the maximum insured amount for bank deposits under DICGC?

Rs 500,000 for each depositor.

56) What is a quick ratio?

Quick ratio simply means current assets excluding inventories divided by current liabilities. It denotes the ability of a company or firm to meet short-term liabilities from the available liquid assets.

57) You are a branch manager of Union Bank of India. A valued customer of your branch approaches you for a personal loan against the security of your bank (Union Bank of India) shares. Can you give a loan against that shares?

No. As per Banking Regulation Act, 1949, a bank cannot sanction a loan against the security of its own shares.

58) As per nomination rules, the signature of a depositor in a nomination form is to be attested by how many witness(es)?

No witness is required. Only in case of illiterate depositors, signature of two witnesses is required.

59) Who regulates insolvency professionals and processes under IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016)?

IBBI or The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India.

60) A 'digital signature' is defined under which Act?

Information Technology Act, 2000. A digital signature is authentication of any electronic record through an electronic method.

61) Name the governor of Reserve Bank of India who started Asset Quality Review (AQR) to clean up banks' balance sheets.

Raghuram Rajan in April 2015.

62) Is the following statement correct? Housing loans provided to banks' own employees can be included under priority sector advances.

Incorrect. Reserve Bank of India does not allow considering housing loans given to banks' own staff to be part of priority sector advances.

63) Under the MSMED Act (Micro,Small and Medium Enterprises Development Act, 2006), what is the definition of a small enterprise?

A small enterprise is an entity where the investment in Plant and Machinery or Equipment does not exceed Rs 10 crore and annual turnover does not exceed Rs 50 crore.

64) What is the risk weight for credit risk prescribed by Reserve Bank of India for a bank's investment in central government security?

Nil. Central government security carries sovereign guarantee, hence practically there is no default risk.

65) Which bank in India is the largest by market capitalisation?

HDFC Bank is India’s largest bank by market capitalisation with a market cap of Rs 799,000 crore, followed by ICICI Bank (Rs 452,600 crore) and State Bank of India (Rs 376,000 crore)—figures as at the end of 22nd of July, 2021.

66) What is the name of the QR (quick response) code recently developed by NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India), Visa, MasterCard and Amex?

Bharat QR. It is a common standard enabling merchants to accept payments without a POS (point of sale) machine introduced in India. It's world's first fully interoperable QR code payment system. It's a low-cost method. It was launched in February 2017.

67) What is the maximum amount of banknote that was demonetised in Independent India?

Rs 10,000 banknote was demonetised, along with Rs1,000- and Rs 5,000-notes, in January 1978.

68) What is the maximum amount that can be remitted through NEFT (National Electronic Fund Transfer) system?

No, there is no minimum or maximum limit imposed by the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) for funds transfer through NEFT system. NEFT works 24x7x365.

69) Which entity maintains and controls UPI (Unified Payments Interface) payment system in India?

NPCI or National Payments Corporation of India, which is an initiative of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Indian Banks’ Association (IBA).

70) What is the shareholding of State Bank of India in the paid-up capital of private sector bank Yes Bank Ltd?

It is 30 per cent as of 30th of June, 2021.

71) In the second week of July 2021, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) banned a credit card company from issuing cards to new customers. Name the card company.

MasterCard Inc. RBI banned MasterCard from issuing cards (debit, credit or prepaid) in India owing to non-adherence of RBI norms on data storage.


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Correction: Questions 49 and 53 were repeated elsewhere; hence they were replaced with new ones by me on 23Jul2021.

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100  

Monday, 19 July 2021

How to Select Equity Mutual Funds-VRK100-19Jul2021

How to Select Equity Mutual Funds

Dear novice investor,

Before I delve into an analysis of individual plans, let me say a few words about money.


A. First Principles:

You're the best money manager for your money.

Nobody can take care of your money better than you.

Don't believe anyone when it comes to your money.

The financial world works on incentives for their own gain, client interest comes last for banks and other financial companies that recommend all kinds of financial products, like mutual funds and insurance plans. This is a brutal reality.

One of the best ways for wealth creation is nurturing one's own human capital, which is more beneficial and fulfilling than earning higher returns from one’s investments. This is the opportunity cost of your time.

B. How to invest in direct plans:

There are several ways to invest in direct plans of diversified mutual funds in India. Direct plans means you're investing on your own, without any broker or intermediary. If you invest through brokers, they're called regular plans and brokers get commission from them when you invest in regular plans.

Direct plans have lower expense ratio, as compared to regular plans--the difference works out to 70 to 150 basis points (100 basis points equals one percentage point) per year in general--which means over period of 15 to 20 years, accumulation from direct plans will be greater. Past data prove this point.

You can visit service centre of the individual asset management company (AMC) or Mutual Fund to invest in direct plans. While applying, you better tick the box "direct," and strike out the broker/intermediary box. AMC is the mutual fund company that manages the investment on behalf of customers / clients.

Before you start investing in mutual funds, you need to do KYC (know your client) documentation. This is a one-time task. Once you complete KYC for a mutual fund, the same KYC-MF can be used for investing in other mutual funds.

If your KYC-MF (know your client - mutual fund) is already done, you can visit the AMC website and start investing in direct plans. It seems some funds insist on visiting their service centres physically when you're investing for the first time with their AMC. With some AMCs, you can invest online by visiting the respective website.

Before investing in the funds of an AMC, you could check their service level and quality. While some AMCs provide seamless service, some are not so good.

However, after investing for the first time with an AMC, the subsequent investments will be more or less smoother. You can take login from the AMC and do online transactions (like buy, sell, change of email, change of phone and others).

KFinTech Pvt Ltd provides MF services for direct plans, they have more than 20 AMCs. The web link is:  KFinTech

Another option to invest in direct plans is using CAMS Online website. They allow investments in 16 AMCs. The web link is: CAMS online.

Once you start investing in mutual funds, you will receive a monthly statement from NSDL (it's called CAS or consolidated account statement) directly to your registered email as long as you invest in that particular month. NSDL is National Securities Depository Limited, which maintains electronic records of shares and mutual funds in India. 

NSDL is regulated by the Indian government and SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India), which regulates mutual funds in India.

Various other options too are available to invest in direct plans--such as Kuvera, Groww, Coin by Zerodha and Mutual Fund Utility (AMFI sponsored)--but I've not used any of them. AMFI is Association of Mutual Funds in India, a body of the mutual fund industry in India.

Overall, you can invest in direct plans through AMC websites or KFintech Online or use CAMS Online. (They give a lot of publicity for downloading their mobile apps. But I'm not comfortable with these mobile apps--because Indian firms aren't good in cyber security).


---------------------------------

Related articles:

Best equity mutual funds 21Sep2011 

All season funds 15Feb2011

Diversified equity mutual funds 18Jun2010

Diversified equity mutual funds Scribd 18Jun2010

Choosing an equity mutual fund 10Nov2006

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C. General Principles:

Direct plans have lower expense ratio, as compared to regular plans--the difference works out to 70 to 100 basis points per year in general--which means over a period of 10 to 15 years, accumulation from direct plans will be greater. Past data prove this point.

(Not that you're are unaware of these things--but it's better to keep them in mind while investing.)

A few years ago, I did a brief analysis of the difference between direct and regular plans of mutual funds. This analysis is available here: Tweet thread 22Jan2018.

It's better to choose Direct Plans and Growth options. Better to opt for growth options (don't opt for dividend option) if you want long term growth. Direct plans carry lower expenses (the assumption with investing in direct plans is the investor is capable of choosing mutual funds on his/her own). Direct MF plans don't pay any commission to agents/advisors. (This means you should not opt for Regular plans, which charge higher fees).
 

In general, equity MF plans with higher exposure to mid/small-cap stocks carry higher risk, as compared to large-cap oriented plans. Mid-small cap funds give more returns in bull markets and they fall more in bear markets. In general, large cap funds (and to some extent flexi cap funds also) provide long term return and stability.

If you see large cap funds, they too hold some percentage of mid-cap stocks. Flexi cap funds too hold a substantial part in mid-cap stocks. When you consider mid-cap funds, keep this point in mind.

Don't consider one-year returns. Consider long term returns versus risk. Some funds take more risk and give more returns; but such funds tend to fall very much during market crashes as we have seen in 2008. Please see whether they're offering downside protection during bear markets, for example, in 2008, 2011, 2018 and 2020 and any other periods of severe market fall.

You can see holdings style box, Sharpe ratio and standard deviation--among risk measures.

Please see whether the plans are charging exit load. Entry load was banned by SEBI in August 2009.

While investing, don't forget to opt for nomination facility.

It's not a good idea to hold more than three or four schemes in your equity mutual fund portfolio. To start with, three equity plans are enough. The three plans need to be diversifying among themselves--in terms of their investment strategy, portfolio diversification, geographies invested (e.g., you can choose a fund that invests in foreign securities, without foregoing equity MF tag for tax benefits), fund house philosophy, and others.

Each mutual fund plan invests in 40 to 60 stocks, providing diversification. As such, there is no point in investing in more than two or three mutual fund plans. Two or three mutual fund plans provide reasonable diversification across stocks, sectors, and themes. 

Investing is basically a forward-looking approach. Past record is only a guide.

Please check their long term performance before investing. After investing, check their performance at least every quarter or half-year. There are various websites to analyse and track the performance of mutual funds. You can see Value Research  and/or MorningStar India. Various other websites are also available.

As the salaried class invest through systematic investment plans (SIPs), one could calculate SIP returns for MF plans before investing (rolling returns can be considered for different 5-year periods for better comparison across plans).

Some fund houses change fund managers. As performance of active funds depends primarily on fund managers, it's better to watch for changes in fund managers. You can also check performance of other funds managed by the same fund manager.

Some plans hold higher cash holdings of 10 to 20 percent in their portfolios. In up-trending markets, such funds give lower returns and vice versa.
 
After investing, you can create your own portfolio in Value Research Online. Actually, if you can upload all your equity MF investments in Value Research in a single portfolio, the analysis will be good. You can also use it for adding your investments mutual fund SIP, stocks, bonds, fixed deposits and other investments.
 

D. Large-cap and flexi cap equity mutual fund plans:

While selecting equity mutual fund plans, you can consider large-cap and flexi cap plans -- all with growth options and direct plans. You can consider only those plans where the fund manager has been managing the fund for at least four or five years. You can ignore plans of smaller fund houses, such as, Mahindra, IDBI, ITI, Navi, Motilal Oswal, etc.

You can check SIP returns of several mutual funds to compare their returns.

You can check SIP returns for three-year and five-year horizon, since people with regular income are expected to invest in mutual funds through SIP (systematic investment plans) route.
 

Selecting funds on a forward-looking basis is hard. However, conservative investors usually look for stability, consistency and AMC's overall track record.


F. To Sum Up:

1) It's better to choose direct plans and growth option plans. Opt for direct plans if you've the ability and time for analysing the funds.

2) Check the past performance thoroughly before investing, but past record is only a guide.

3) It's better to select three large-cap or flexi cap equity plans. At this point of time (with Sensex around 53,000 today), risks are a bit higher. But first-time / novice investors need not worry about entry point. For them, any time is a good time.

4) Timing the markets is extremely hard, hence it's better to stick to one's asset allocation and investment plan; and stay invested with long term orientation and patience.

5) One could choose three different funds from three different fund houses (concomitantly, avoiding selection of the same fund manager or plan from the same fund house).

6) Finally, investigate before investing and don't forget to track after investing.


Happy investing!


Rama Krishna V.

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P.S.: The following news items are added after the above article was published on 19Jul2021:

23Sep2021 Value Research - CAMS and KFintech, the two biggest RTAs in India, have jointly developed MF Central MFCentral with the support of depositories and AMFI, as a unified hub for investors - CAS - MFCentral FAQs - mutual fund portfolio all at one place - SEBI circular 26Jul2021 for a common industry platform - MF services - mutual fund statement -

 

 

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100  

Tuesday, 9 February 2021

Fiscal Deficit and Its Indirect Monetisation by Reserve Bank of India - vrk100 - 09Feb2021

Fiscal Deficit and Its Indirect Monetisation by Reserve Bank of India

Indirect monetisation of fiscal deficit by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been heavy since 2008-09, with OMO (open market operations) purchases by RBI peaking at 63 per cent of net market borrowing in 2018-19 (not to speak of scheduled commercial banks' support to Government of India via mandatory SLR or statutory liquidity ratio)--leading to crowding out of the private sector.
 
Rising fiscal deficit has become a thorny issue for India since 2008-09, with OMO purchases supporting Government to an extent of 40 per cent of net market borrowings. In the past 13 years, only in 2014-15 and 2017-18, there were net OMO sales by RBI. The details of RBI's OMO purchases are provided in the table given below (click on it for expanded view):

 

 


With open market operations, RBI purchases and sells government securities and treasury bills. It is one of the main instruments of sterilisation used by the RBI. OMO sales entail the permanent absorption of the liquidity. Through OMO purchases, RBI injects liquidity into the banking system. RBI conducts open market operations regularly.

 Open Market Operations (OMO) by RBI are supposed to be two ways. Committee after committee have spoken against outright monetisation of fiscal deficit via OMO purchases--eroding RBI's credibility in discretionary liquidity management.

Practically, Government of India's fiscal deficits are financed by RBI's one-sided OMO buying (see image) & support from commercial banks through mandatory SLR (statutory liquidity ratio). On top of that, banks hold excess SLR securities leading to market distortions. 

With the introduction of FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Act in 2004, RBI cannot participate in the primary issuance of government bonds. But RBI is still resorting to government debt financing through outright OMO purchases in the secondary market.

No other major central bank uses OMO (one-sided) as blatantly as RBI in yield curve management, though OMOs are not to be used for that. Bond prices are the building blocks of asset pricing--with such distortions how can market players be sure of pricing of other assets? 

RBI uses OMO to bring down long term yields by resorting to buying of government bonds, which is practically yield curve management, also known as yield curve control (YCC). Lower bond yields help governments in borrowing money from markets at cheaper rates.

With automatic monetisation via large OMO purchases, Reserve Bank of India has been printing money leading to debasement of money (lowering the purchasing power of currency).

In financial markets, government bond (called G-Secs in India for short) yields are the starting point for pricing of other assets. For example, corporate bonds are priced as a spread over G-Sec yields. G-Sec yields are also used for pricing equities and others.

With this indirect monetisation of fiscal deficits, RBI loses its credibility in conducting monetary policy objectively--reflecting poorly on central bank independence.

Side note: In financial market operations,  open market operations are termed as open mouth operations.

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Please check my comments posted below >

Related articles:

Primer on Market Stabilisation Scheme and Liquidity Management 02Dec2016




What is Marginal Standing Facility 20Jul2013

References:

My tweet  thread dated 08Feb2021 on the above topic can be accessed at: weblink

Yield curve control (YCC): St Louis Fed blog dated 11Aug2020

Jan2014 Urjit Patel Report on Monetary Policy Framework (MPF)

04Mar2013 Fiscal-Monetary Co-ordination in India : An Assessment

Disclosure:  I've vested interest in Indian stocks. It's safe to assume I've interest in the stocks discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100    

 

Monday, 8 February 2021

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - My Tweets - vrk100 - 08Feb2021

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - My Tweets

 

 

(Update 27Sep2021 on REITs is available) 

 

 

India is no stranger to REITs or Real  Estate Investment Trusts. REITs first caught my attention back in June 2006 when I wrote an article on them. The article can be accessed at: REITs - What Are They?
 
Since then, many things have happened though belatedly. India's capital market regulator was slow to introduce them to financial markets. The lethargy can be gauged from the fact that India's first REIT went public only in March 2019, with Embassy Office Parks REIT coming out with an initial public offer (IPO). The REIT's units were listed on BSE (formerly Bombay Stock Exchange) and NSE (National Stock Exchange of India) on 1st of April 2019.

The second REIT in India is Mindspace Business Parks REIT, which was listed on 07Aug2020.

A third REIT will be listed this week. It is Brookfield India Real Estate Trust, whose IPO was closed on 05Feb2021.

The details, as of today, are:

 

As can be seen from the below chart, the interest in the two listed REITs is subdued now even though initially investor interest was high in them. Embassy REIT's issue price was Rs 300 and it closed on first day of its listing (01Apr2019) at Rs 315. On 05Mar2020, it touched all-time-high of Rs 480, but as of now it slipped to Rs 355.

And Mindspace REIT is now quoting at Rs 330, a gain of 20 per cent from its issue in August 2020.  

In comparison, the stock of DLF Ltd is now quoting at Rs 313 with a market cap of Rs 77,600 crore. 

You can read the story of REITs in India through the following tweets: 

1) As more players are likely to join the space, we may see more REITs in public markets going forward. For example, DLF Limited has expressed its interest in launching a REIT. My tweet dated 01Nov2020 (click on the tweet thread for more details):

2) My tweet dated 08Oct2019 commenting on the market fancy for Embassy Office Parks REIT as compared to DLF stock (click on the tweet thread for more details). In Oct2019, DLF's market capitalisation was Rs 35,600 crore and that of Embassy REIT was Rs 33,150 crore. As of now, DLF's market cap is Rs 77,600 crore, a gain of 118 per cent in the past 16 months. 

Whereas, Embassy REIT's market cap is now Rs 33,600 crore, a gain of just one per cent in the same period. It's obvious that the initial euphoria surrounding the REIT's IPO died down, which is natural. In the past 16 months, the pendulum has swung to the other side, with investors turning euphoric about real estate stocks, while showing little interest in the two listed REITs.

Actually, there is a flaw in comparing unit prices of REITs with share prices of real estate companies. Most of the income of REITs comes from dividends paid by the underlying SPVs.

These SPVs receive cash flows mainly through rental income from income-generating properties, either residential or commercial. As per SEBI mandate, REITs have to pay out at least 90 per cent of their net distributable cash flows to unitholders on a half-yearly basis.

Whereas, distributions to shareholders from listed companies comprise of dividends and share buybacks.  And companies are not mandated to compulsorily pay dividends or undertake share buybacks; unlike REITs which have to distribute 90 per cent of their cash flows. 

  

3) My tweet dated 01Nov2020 about Embassy REIT joining S&P Global Property Index (click on the tweet thread for more details):

 

 

4) My tweet dated 19May2019 with details of Embassy REIT's offer document: 

 

5) DLF expressed its intention to float a REIT back in November 2014. Even after six years, the REIT has still been in the pipeline. It is hoped that its REIT may see the light of the day in 2021. My tweet dated 15Nov2014 about DLF's intention:

 

 6) My tweet dated 16Aug2014 about REITs' potential if implemented and regulated properly: 

 

 7) My tweet dated 13Aug2014 about hurdles to REITs:

 

  8) My tweet dated 10Aug2014 about SEBI approving REIT norms:

 

9) My tweet dated 11Jul2014 about tax clarity: 

 

10) My tweet dated 11Jul2014 about diversification benefits of REITs: 

 

 For more on REITs and my tweets, you can check this: weblink

 

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Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks. It's safe to assume I've interest in the stocks discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100