Showing posts with label BPLR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BPLR. Show all posts

Monday, 11 July 2011

Market Outlook-VRK100-11072011

Market Outlook

Rama Krishna Vadlamudi, HYDERABAD July 11, 2011

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When you thought the markets were poised for a breakdown, just the opposite happened. During the middle of June 2011, the sentiment on Indian equities was very weak and most of the market people expected the stock indices to go lower. But, in a matter of one week, the sentiment turned positive suddenly, following a couple of events. When I wrote the ‘Market Outlook’ almost a month ago, I suggested that market would climb down from 18,000 Sensex level to 17,000 levels. Against my expectation, the Sensex rebounded and closed at 18,858 last week.

During the first week of this month, equities staged a rebound led by inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) following the Government’s decision to hike prices of heavily-subsidized diesel, kerosene and LPG. Added to the positive sentiment were: the sharp decline in international crude oil prices; and the decision by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to give an aid of USD 170 billion (120 billion euro) to Greece to help it out of the sovereign debt crisis.

What investors ignored

Investors, rather traders, seemed to have ignored a variety of factors. The south-west monsoon seems to be weak with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggesting that rainfall so far is deficient in several met sub-divisions of the country. The IMD estimates that rainfall, during this kharif season, may be five per cent below the long-term average. Inflation is at elevated levels though food inflation seems to be on the bend. Food inflation is down to 7.6 per cent due to a high base effect of last year. The policy drift in India continues with the government not being able to go ahead with policy reforms.

Commodities

Commodities prices have come off their peaks in the last one month. After touching a low of $ 90 per barrel, the Nymex crude oil rebounded to 98-level before ending the week at $ 96 per barrel. The upheaval in Libya, Syria and other Middle East countries and the supply-demand gap are likely to drive crude oil prices to higher levels in the following months. Gold prices rose to $ 1,530 per ounce while silver ended the week at $ 36 per ounce. In Mumbai, gold was quoting at around Rs 22,000 per 10 gm and silver at Rs 54,200 per kg. World cotton and wheat prices have fallen 20 per cent off their recent peaks.

Global cues

The US unemployment rate rose unexpectedly in June 2011 from 9.1 per cent to 9.2 per cent. The US jobs data softened the commodities prices. The European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate from 1.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent for the second time this year. China raised its benchmark interest rates for the third time this year from 6.31 per cent to 6.56 per cent. Europe continues to be troubled with its sovereign debt crisis prompting Moody’s to cut Portugal’s credit rating by four notches to ‘junk’ status.

Amidst all the gloomy news, the Nikkei – Japanese benchmark stock index, crossed 10,000 last week. Interestingly, the Nikkei was at 10,000-level when tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011. It is expected that Japanese companies are recovering well from post-tsunami supply chain disruptions.

Foreign Flows

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have brought in USD 1.3 billion or Rs 5,700 crore in this month alone to the Indian stock markets. The total inflows from FIIs are at USD 2.7 billion or Rs 11,700 crore for this calendar year, as per SEBI data. The Indian stock prices are heavily influenced by FII flows.

As per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, foreign direct investment (FDI) in India has fallen by 62 per cent to $ 7.1 billion in 2010-11 from $ 18.8 billion in 2009-10. The steep fall is attributed to a variety of reasons, like, weak investment climate in India following the issues surrounding corruption which has dented country’s image among foreign investors, slow government decision making in business deals such as Vedanta Resources acquisition of Cairn India, and policy issues in government’s new exploration licensing policy (NELP).

India’s Exports and Imports

India’s exports have been growing rapidly in the last six months. Data from the commerce ministry shows that merchandise exports in June 2011 grew strongly at 46 per cent to $ 29 billion led by engineering, oil, gems & jewellery, and cotton yarn; while imports rose to $ 42 billion led by crude oil, precious metals, gems and machinery.

Current account deficit (CAD) for 2010-11 stood at $ 44.3 billion representing 2.6 per cent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP). This is much higher than the $ 38.4 billion deficit, 2.8 per cent of GDP, recorded in 2009-10.

Hauling over the coals

The draft mining bill proposed by the government spooked the stock price of Coal India. The bill proposed that Coal India should share 26 per cent of its net profit with the people affected by the project. The proposal will adversely affect the profits of Coal India in future. As a result, the stock price of Coal India nosedived by eight per cent on July 9th and closed at Rs 362 per share. The draft bill is likely to negatively impact others firms, like, NMDC and Sesa Goa, though the impact on these iron ore miners may be lesser compared to Coal India. A peculiar feature of Indian stock market, of late, has been that whenever the Government eyes a particular sector, the stocks in that particular sector are falling heavily. Markets, in general, do not like government intervention or control/regulation. Previously, the telecom sector was beaten down in a similar fashion.

Banking results

Banks were the first to announce their first quarter (April to June 2011) results heralding the start of results season, which opened on a positive note. HDFC, the country’s biggest housing company, clocked a 22 per cent rise (quarter on quarter) in net profit to Rs 1,176 crore boosted by a healthy loan growth of 22 per cent. HDFC says the demand for housing loans is strong despite rise in interest rates. Mid-sized private sector bank, IndusInd Bank has shown a good 52 per cent rise in net profit spurred by healthy growth in non-interest income and reduced interest costs.

In other developments, State Bank of India, India’s biggest lender, has raised its base rate and benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR) by 25 basis points (0.25 per cent) each to 9.5 per cent and 14.25 per cent respectively. SBI raised deposit rates also. Several banks, including ICICI Bank, IOB and Corporation Bank, have increased their lending rates in the last one month following a series of rate hikes by Reserve Bank of India.

Banking sector seems to be bogged down with large spike in bad loans prompting the finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee to direct the public sector banks to exercise due diligence in sanctioning of new loans and taking necessary steps for recovery in bad loans. It is no wonder that the stock market finds the stocks of public sector banks unattractive compared to private sector banks. Media reports suggest that SBI is planning to raise overseas debt of $ 5 billion as its biggest stakeholder, Government of India, seems to have no interest in investing in SBI through rights issue. The government is facing funds crunch as fiscal deficit’s target for the current financial year appears to be a difficult achievement.

Reserve Bank of India has imposed a penalty of Rs 25 lakh on Citibank for violating Know Your Customer (KYC) norms. Earlier this year, the foreign bank’s relationship manager reportedly duped several corporate customers. Due to the fraud, the bank’s customers had lost hundreds of crores of rupees.

Insurance

The regulator of insurance sector, Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) has imposed a penalty of Rs 70 lakh on SBI Life Insurance Company for violation of guidelines on group insurance policies.

Direct Cash Transfer

The Central Government is proposing to transfer subsidies, like, fertilizers, kerosene, cooking gas, and food grains worth thousands of crores, to the needy consumers directly. As per a task force, headed by Nandan Nilekani, the government will directly transfer cash to the consumers with the help of Aadhar-linked bank account. Aadhar is a unique identification number being given by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), a government body. The UIDAI has already issued one crore Aadhar numbers in the last nine months.

What lies ahead?

The continuing uncertainties in Europe over sovereign debt will keep the prices of commodities under check. Other factors that are negative for commodities are the unexpected rise in unemployment rate in the US and rising interest rates in China and India, two of the top importers of raw materials. Even the ECB is going to raise its interest rates further in future. However, due to fundamental factors and the political unrest in the Middle East, crude oil is likely to go up.

The important stock indices around the world have rallied in the last one or two weeks. Last week, the Sensex closed at 18,858 and the Nifty at 5,661. Last week’s closing levels for world indices are: Dow Jones – 12,657; S&P 500 – 1,344; Nasdaq – 2,860; FTSE 100 – 5,991; Dax – 7,403; Hang Seng – 22,726; and Nikkei – 10,138.

In the short term, Indian stocks are looking to be in an uptrend led by strong FII inflows. The quarterly results also may give some positive surprises, especially from private sector banks, pharma, metals and consumption-oriented sectors. However, the long term trend for Indian stocks is hazy due to concerns on problems being faced by the central government, weak south-west monsoon, inflationary concerns and the possible decline in GDP going forward. Overall, these are interesting times for Indian stock markets.

Disclaimer: The author’s views are personal. The author has a vested interest in the stock markets. Before taking investment/trading decisions, consult your personal certified financial planner/adviser.

Monday, 14 June 2010

New Base Rate System of Bank Loan Pricing-VRK100-13Jun2010



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BASE RATE - NEW SYSTEM OF LOAN PRICING BY BANKS IN INDIA
 

 
 
 
ABBREVIATIONS USED:

BPLR             : Benchmark Prime Lending Rate
BRS                : Base Rate System
CASA             : Current Account and Savings Bank Accounts (low-cost deposits)
CD                  : Certificate of Deposit;                    CP  : Commercial paper;
CRR               : Cash Reserve Ratio;                       DRI : Differential Rate of Interest
G-Sec             : Government Security
LAF                 : Liquidity Adjustment Facility of the RBI
MIBOR           : Mumbai Inter-bank Offered Rate
PLR                : Prime Lending Rate
RBI                 : Reserve Bank of India; and,            SLR : Statutory Liquidity Ratio




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY




Come July 2010, the Indian banking sector is going to witness some fast moving and high-impact developments. India’s banking regulator, Reserve Bank of India, is ushering in a new Base Rate System (BRS) replacing the existing, outdated and non-transparent Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) system. At present, sub-BPLR lending is rampant in the system. Once the new BRS comes into effect, one expects that such a non-transparent and discriminatory system will come to an end.

RBI, in April 2009, announced the appointment of a working group to study the relevance of the existing BPLR and suggest ways to improve the system. The Working Group, headed by Deepak Mohanty, submitted its report in October 2009. Based on the recommendations of the working group, RBI released its draft circular on BASE RATE system on February 10, 2010. After getting feedback from banks and other stakeholders, RBI had issued its Final Guidelines on April 9, 2010. The new Base Rate System would be effective from July 1, 2010.

The Committee’s recommendations have been partially accepted by RBI. In future, banks will not be able to lend at rates below the Base Rate. The Base Rate will be based on the bank’s cost of deposits/funds, negative carry on SLR/CRR, unallocatable overhead cost and average return on net worth. The actual lending rate to be charged to borrowers will be Base Rate plus product-specific overhead cost, credit risk premium and tenor risk premium.

So far, no bank has announced its Base Rate. They may announce the Base Rates in the next few weeks before the deadline of July 1, 2010. The author expects the Base Rate range to be between six and nine per cent due to wide differences in cost of funds, NPAs and other costs.

This article examines, in a comprehensive manner, the contents of the report of the working group and the RBI’s Final Guidelines issued on April 9, 2010. The author has tried to bring in all the aspects of the new system in a simple and easy language that is understandable by all. The article is written in a question-and-answer format, which is one of the easiest. The article’s highlights are:

ü        Why is RBI switching over to the new Base Rate System
ü        What will be the impact of the new system
ü        What are the RBI’s Final Guidelines
ü        Whether RBI has accepted the Committee’s recommendations fully
ü        What are the differences between the Committee’s recommendations and RBI’s Final Guidelines
ü        How is the Base Rate calculated
ü        How is the actual lending rate worked out
ü        What is the likely range of Base Rates by banks

At the end, the following annexures are provided for additional reading:

I    :   Full recommendations of the Deepak Mohanty Committee
II   :   Formulas for calculating the Base Rate
III  :   TIMELINE: Evolution of BPLR since the early 1990s to 2004
IV  :  Some important terms explained

1. What is Base Rate?

Base Rate is the minimum lending rate below which a bank can not lend to borrowers except in a few cases. Base Rate is being implemented in India with effect from July 1, 2010. From that date, the existing Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) will cease to exist and the new Base Rate System will come into effect. Base Rate will differ from bank to bank depending on individual bank’s cost of deposits/funds and other criteria.

2. Why is RBI changing the loan pricing system?

There is a public perception that banks have been offering lower lending rates to big corporate customers, while charging higher rates from small borrowers in the retail, small business and agriculture segments. This amounts to cross-subsidization. RBI has received several complaints to this effect from various industry bodies and associations. RBI has taken this view into consideration. For several years especially since the early 2000s, RBI had tried to bring in a transparent system of lending rates in the banking system. After trying very hard, RBI has genuinely felt that banks’ BPLRs are not transparent and there is a large-scale sub-BPLR lending.

Downward stickiness in rates: RBI has observed that whenever RBI raises policy rates and reserve ratios, banks are quick to increase their loan rates. But, when RBI reduces policy rates and reserve ratios, banks respond very slowly effecting decreased lending rates with a considerable time lag. Such a phenomenon is called downward stickiness in rates. RBI is of the view that it is adversely impacting the monetary transmission mechanism in the banking system.

Due to competition, banks have been offering loans to first class borrowers with high credit rating at rates much below the BPLR in a non-transparent manner. RBI opines that banks’ lending at sub-BPLR rates is not in tune with the central bank’s objective of bringing transparency to the loan rates. BPLR has fallen short of RBI’s expectations to work as a reference rate or benchmark rate.

Keeping the above in mind, RBI had set up, in April 2009, a committee under the chairmanship of Deepak Mohanty to look into the existing BPLR system and suggest a suitable alternative system for pricing bank loans. The Deepak Mohanty Committee’s recommendations were made public in October 2009, which suggested shifting from the current BPLR to a new system called Base Rate System. After getting feedback from banks and other stakeholders, RBI had issued its Final Guidelines on April 9, 2010.


3. What are Deepak Mohanty Committee’s Recommendations?

The important recommendations are:

ü        The concept of BPLR is outdated and is out of sync with the present market conditions and it should be replaced with a new Base Rate System

ü        Base Rate would be based on one-year card rate on deposits, loss incurred by banks for SLR/CRR, overhead cost and average return on net worth

ü        The actual rate charged to borrowers would be Base Rate increased by operating costs, credit risk premium, tenor premium and others

ü        Banks should not lend below the Base Rate, except in a few cases

ü        At present, the Government administers loans of up to Rs 2 lakh to small borrowers, under priority sector & others. These administered rates shall be discontinued and these loans can be brought under the Base Rate system.

(For full set of recommendations, see Annexure I at the end of this article.)


4. Whether RBI has accepted the recommendations?

RBI had made public the report of Deepak Mohanty Committee in October 2009. After getting feedback from banks, RBI had issued the final guidelines on Base Rate System on April 9, 2010.

RBI’s Final Guidelines on Base Rate are as follows:

ü        All scheduled commercial banks should switch over from the existing BPLR system to the new Base Rate System

ü        Base Rate System is to be implemented from July 1, 2010

ü        Banks may choose any benchmark to arrive at the Base Rate for a specific tenor (tenure of the loan)

ü        Banks are free to use any other methodology, provided it is made available for RBI’s scrutiny

ü        All loans and advances should be linked to Base Rate. But, there are a few exceptions meaning the following loans can be disbursed without linking them to Base Rate:

                                i.            DRI advances
                              ii.            Loans to banks’ own employees
                            iii.            Loans to banks’ depositors against their own deposits

            Effectively, it means banks can lend below Base Rate in the above cases.

ü        Actual lending rate will be based on Base Rate plus customer specific charges

ü        Until the new system stabilizes, banks are given flexibility to change the benchmark and methodology any time between July and December 2010

ü        Base Rate can be used as a reference rate for floating rate loans

ü        The current stipulation of BPLR as the ceiling rate for loans up to Rs. 2 lakh, under priority sector and others, stands withdrawn wef July 1, 2010

ü        RBI will separately announce lending rates for export credit (The details are given elsewhere)

ü        Banks have to review Base Rate on a quarterly basis

ü        The Base Rate system will be applicable to new loans as well as loans that have come up for renewal
ü        Banks shall exhibit the information on Base Rate on their websites and at all their branches

The RBI’s circular on final guidelines (RBI circular dated April 9, 2010) is a watered-down version of the Deepak Mohanty Committee’s recommendations. The following table will help the reader.
 

As can be seen from the above table, RBI has accepted the Committee’s recommendations only partially. For calculating the Base Rate, RBI has given greater flexibility to banks with regard to selecting a benchmark and calculation methodology.

5. How is Base Rate different from BPLR?

Under the existing Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR), banks can give loans below BPLR, called sub-BPLR lending. In fact, as at the end of March 2009, 67 per cent of total loans in the entire banking system were contracted at below BPLR. This is not possible under the new Base Rate System. Banks are not allowed to lend at below Base Rate. It is the minimum lending rate banks have to charge to their customers. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule (the details are given elsewhere).

6. How is Base Rate calculated?

Banks are given freedom to decide their own Base Rates based on cost of deposits, adjustment for CRR/SLR maintenance, unallocatable overhead costs and average return on net worth.

According to RBI, Base Rate shall include all those elements of the lending rates that are common across all categories of borrowers. Banks may choose any benchmark to arrive at the Base Rate for a specific tenor to be disclosed transparently. An RBI illustration, for computing the Base Rate is given below:

BASE RATE
=
Cost of deposits/funds
+
Negative carry on CRR/SLR
+
Unallocatable overhead cost
+
Average return on net worth


Banks are free to use any other appropriate methodology, provided it is consistent and is made available for RBI review/scrutiny.

Strictly speaking, the above is only for illustrative purposes. RBI has given freedom to banks to use their own methods for the calculation of Base Rate.

(The above terms are explained with formulas in Annexure II at the end.)

7. Will customers be able get loans at Base Rate?

RBI says that banks can calculate the actual lending rate by adding customer specific charges to the Base Rate.

Frankly speaking, Base Rate is not equal to lending rate that will be charged ultimately to the customer. While arriving at the actual lending rate, banks will add certain appropriate charges specific to the customer, like overhead costs, credit risk premium and tenor premium. As per the Deepak Mohanty Committee’s report, actual lending rate can be arrived at as follows:

Actual lending rate *
=
Base Rate
+
Product specific operating cost
+
Credit risk premium
+
Tenor premium

* Actual lending rate that will be charged by banks to the borrowers

Credit risk premium: All loans carry credit risk meaning that the borrower may fail to repay the loan. The extent of credit risk differs from one borrower to another borrower depending on the borrower’s overall credit standing and other factors. So, the credit risk premium may be lower for a customer with good track record and may be higher for customers with not-so-good record.

Tenor premium: In general, the longer the maturity of the loan, the higher the risk for a lender. As such, banks usually charge higher rates for long-term loans compared to short-term loans, other things being equal.

Example: As all loans will be linked to Base Rate, whenever a bank changes its Base Rate, the loan rates of customers will change accordingly. Suppose Bank Efficient has kept its Base Rate at 8 per cent. And the Bank Efficient has fixed car loans at Base Rate plus 4 per cent (ie, 400 basis points), the car loan rate will be 12 per cent (8 + 4). After a few months, Bank Efficient has revised the Base Rate to 9 per cent, the car loan rate will be revised to 13 per cent (Base Rate plus car loan premium = 9 + 4). Moreover, the Bank has got freedom to revise the car loan premium. Depending on the market conditions and other considerations, the Bank may decide to increase the loan premium to 5 per cent from 4 per cent. Then, the car loan rate will be revised to 14 per cent (9 + 5).

8. What is transparency in loan pricing?

Transparency in bank lending means that banks should be able to provide adequate information to borrowers so that the latter fully understand the terms and conditions. Higher levels of transparency can be achieved by disclosing information on how the loan rates are arrived at by the bank. Transparent lending is equal to borrowers correctly understanding the loan pricing mechanism and other fees before signing the loan agreement. Banks should not indulge in charging any hidden costs and unexpected rate increases. To achieve greater levels of transparency, banks shall ensure that all charges and possibility of rate increases are made clear to the borrower at the beginning of the agreement.

Given the large proportion of sub-BPLR lending by the banking system, concerns have been raised on the transparency aspect of computation of BPLRs by banks.

9. What is monetary policy transmission?

Whenever RBI raises or lowers policy rates, banks are expected to revise their interest rates in tune with the RBI. The intentions of RBI will be carried through the commercial banks to the entire economy. Banks pass on the RBI’s policy measures either by increasing the lending and deposit rates or by lowering them in tune with the RBI’s policy measures. This is called Monetary Policy transmission. But, this monetary transmission is not happening in actual practice due to a variety of reasons. Banks usually respond with a considerable time lag to the changes in RBI’s policy rates. Whenever RBI raises policy rates, it is observed that banks raise their lending rates immediately. However, when RBI lowers policy rates, banks act slowly and lower their loan rates with a substantial time lag. Such downward stickiness in rates is creating problems for RBI in its objectives of achieving price stability and growth.

Monetary policy transmission is the responsiveness of the banking system to the changes in the monetary policy of the RBI. RBI raises policy rates and reserve ratios or decreases them depending on the macro economic conditions, inflation rate, government policies and others.

10. What type of customers can get loans at below Base Rate?

As stated above, there are a few exceptions to Base Rate rule which forbids banks from lending below Base Rate. In the following cases, RBI has permitted banks to fix rates without linking them to Base Rate:

  1. Loans under the DRI scheme
  2. Loans to banks’ own employees
  3. Loans to banks’ depositors against their own deposits

11. What will be the advantages of Base Rate System?

v     RBI has decided to replace the BPLR with Base Rate to make credit pricing more transparent

v     It is expected that higher transparency will benefit all kinds of borrowers irrespective of the size of the loan

v     The Base Rate system is aimed at enhancing transparency in lending rates of banks and enabling better assessment of transmission of monetary policy

12. What will be the impact of the new method?

The biggest impact is that the new Base Rates from commercial banks will be much lower than the existing Benchmark Prime Lending Rates (BPLR). Due to heavy competition in the industry, some aggressive banks, whose cost of deposits/funds is lower compared to industry levels, may peg their Base Rates very low.

The new Base Rate System (BRS) is expected to impact the banks in different ways depending on their cost of deposits, overhead cost, their customer profile, geographical concentration and others. Likewise, the BRS will impact the debtors in various ways.

One biggest benefit with the BRS as cited by policymakers and experts is that it will help the Reserve Bank of India to transmit the changes in policy rates (Repo and Reverse Repo under LAF) in a better manner. Under the BPLR, monetary policy transmission is weak due to lack of transparency in BPLR. This has been brought out elaborately by Deepak Mohanty Committee’s Report. Now, with the BRS, RBI expects that banks will respond immediately to RBI’s policy rates.
  
Let me try to briefly examine the impact of BRS:

Ø     The Base Rate System is expected to usher in a transparent system meaning borrowers will be able to understand how their loan rate is arrived at
Ø      After the implementation of Base Rate, banks will stop fresh lending below their BPLRs as they shift to Base Rate System
Ø      Highly-rated companies have been borrowing at sub-BPLR rate for a long time due to competition among banks and this practice may come to an end after the Base Rate kicks in
Ø     Once BRS comes into effect, rates for short-term bank loans to corporates could rise. However, large and reputed companies with strong balance sheets may explore Commercial Paper (CP) route. Hence, the BRS may not change loan rates for big companies, like, RIL, L&T, ONGC, as they have direct access to CP or bond markets.
Ø    Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) may get favourable rates. The impression in public that SMEs and small borrowers are subsidizing the corporate loans. This type of cross-subsidization will stop from now.
Ø   This is a step towards further deregulation of interest rates as banks will stop giving concessional rates to loans below Rs 2 lakh (especially priority sector loans up to Rs 2 lakh). RBI has given freedom to banks to charge commercial rates for loans below Rs 2 lakh at rates linked to base rate. With this, RBI wants to increase the credit flow to small borrowers.

It remains to be seen how the Base Rate will impact the credit offtake. As of now, credit growth is sluggish due to a variety of reasons. As banks will not be able to lend below Base Rate, corporates will turn toward Commercial Paper route and banks may not be able to lend their surplus funds in the short term. One piquant situation may be that borrowers with ‘AAA’ rating will approach the markets through the Commercial Paper (CP) route. Banks will invest in these CPs and such lending through CP route will not be part of their ‘Advances,’ but part of ‘Investments.’

Alternatively, banks may be tempted to park their surplus with the Reverse Repo window of the RBI’s LAF or invest in G-Secs or liquid schemes of mutual funds.

13. To what kinds of Banks the Base Rate is applicable?

The Base Rate is made applicable by RBI to all scheduled commercial banks (ASCBs) in India, except Regional Rural Banks (RRBs).

 14. Whether banks have fixed their Base Rates?

So far, no bank has fixed its Base Rate. Another two weeks time is available for banks to announce their Base Rates before the deadline of July 1st. State Bank of India, India’s biggest lender, has indicated that it may link its Base Rate to cost of deposits and the Base Rate may be around eight per cent. Average cost of deposits for SBI is 5.80 per cent as on March 2010. And its cumulative net interest margin (NIM) is 2.66 per cent for the financial year 2009-10.

Union Bank of India has hinted that it may set the Base Rate between 8.25 and 8.75 per cent. According to rumours, it seems HDFC Bank is likely to fix its Base Rate at around six per cent. It may be noted that its Net Interest Margin has traditionally been much higher at around 4.0 per cent. In fact, for the year 2009-10, the net interest margin is 4.3 per cent for the bank. This is due to very low cost of deposits, which is at 4.7 per cent for 2009-10.

Overall, the Base Rate range may be between six and nine per cent for most of the commercial banks initially.

15. What is the lending rate for export credit?

In its circular dated April 9, 2010, RBI had stated that it would announce the rates for export credit separately. And as promised, RBI had issued a circular on April 23, 2010 stating that banks should fix their lending rate to export credit (both pre-shipment rupee export credit and post-shipment rupee export credit) at or above the Base Rate. The revised instructions will be effective from July 1, 2010.

16. Why is sub-BPLR rampant in the banking system?

Keeping in view the international practice and to provide further operational flexibility to commercial banks in deciding their lending rates, RBI in April 2001 decided to make PLR a benchmark rate. Accordingly, commercial banks were allowed to lend at sub-PLR rate for loans above Rs.2 lakh. In 2003, RBI replaced the PLR system with BPLR. In the beginning, it was expected that sub-BPLR lending would be marginal. But from 28 per cent of total bank credit in March 2002, sub-BPLR lending had gone up to 77 per cent in September 2008 before declining to 67 per cent in March 2009.

On account of competitive pressures, banks were lending a part of their portfolio at rates below their BPLRs. A large loan offered to a highly rated borrower may be offered at a lower rate below the current all-in-cost BPLR due to little risk and savings on account of processing and monitoring costs. Although justifiable to some extent, such sub-BPLR lending on a large scale has created a perception that large borrowers are being cross subsidized by retail and small borrowers.

(The timeline for the evolution of PLR/BPLR system is given in Annexure III.)

17. What is downward stickiness in rates:

The Working Group has observed that whenever RBI raises policy rates and reserve ratios, banks are quick to increase their loan rates. But, when RBI reduces policy rates and reserve ratios, banks respond very slowly effecting decreased lending rates with a considerable time lag. This is called downward stickiness in rates. RBI has opined that this downward stickiness is adversely impacting the monetary transmission mechanism in the banking system.

One of the major reasons for downward stickiness is the large share of deposits (major portion consists of term deposits with fixed tenure) contracted at high rates in the past. In response to RBI’s reduction of policy rates, banks are not in a position to reduce their lending rates as their cost of funds will remain high for quite some time during the early part of a declining interest rate environment. The marginal cost of funds is more relevant for banks for pricing current loans/advances rather than the average cost which is computed on the basis of the cost of all outstanding purchased and borrowed liabilities reflected in the balance sheet.

The downward stickiness in BPLRs is also attributed to several other factors such as (i) the administered interest rate structure on small savings, which constrains the reduction in deposit rates; (ii) concessional lending rates linked to BPLRs for some sectors, which make overall lending rates less flexible; and (iii) persistence of the large market borrowing programme of the government, which hardens interest rate expectations.

18. What is the criticism of the Base Rate System?

The new Base Rate System has received more brickbats than bouquets from several industry watchers:

  • U.R.Bhat, Dalton Capital Advisors: “The prohibition from lending below the base rate virtually bids goodbye to the principles of free market…Banks may need to lend short-term to low-risk borrowers at rates below the Base Rate depending on the market conditions…” (Economic Times, March 8, 2010).

  • Saurabh Mukherjea, Noble Group: “Seventy per cent of the Indian banking system is in the hands of public sector banks. These banks’ profits will come under pressure as the interest rate cycle moves north…Hence, by diminishing the intensity of competition in the banking sector, RBI is taking care of the interests of public sector titans like the State Bank of India and Punjab National Bank…” (Outlook Profit, 2nd April 2010)

19. CONCLUDING REMARKS

The Base Rate System is only starting from July 1, 2010. The RBI has given a cooling period of six months till December 31, 2010, which gives banks flexibility to experiment with various calculation methods and Base Rates, before settling for a particular method or a specific Base Rate. As such, the system will evolve over a period of time.

We can definitely expect some more changes to the Base Rate System once RBI gets a feel of the new system. Banks have been smart players and they have been making good profits notwithstanding the global financial meltdown of 2008 and the wild movements in interest rates.

It is expected that banks will be able to protect their margins despite the Base Rate System, unless more banking licenses are given by RBI/Government. India’s Telecom Sector has witnessed intense competition in the last two to three years and this has benefited the customers immensely due to steep reduction in telephone tariffs. The competition in Telecom Sector has widened the market base and this has brought higher revenues for the Government in the form of service tax, corporate tax and income tax.

Can we expect that the same thing will happen in the banking sector?

It may not happen in banking sector until more banking licenses have been issued to both the private sector and public sector players. In this backdrop, it remains to be seen whether the twin objectives of RBI of bringing in better transparency and improved monetary policy transmission will be achieved.

Moreover, it will be interesting to watch the response of the market, banks, stakeholders, RBI and the Government to this new development.

  






ANNEXURE I




REPORT OF THE WORKING GROUP ON
BENCHMARK PRIME LENDING RATE HEADED BY DEEPAK MOHANTY

The Working Group had the following terms of reference:

            (i) to review the concept of BPLR and the manner of its computation;
            (ii) to examine the extent of sub-BPLR lending and the reasons thereof;
            (iii) to suggest an appropriate loan pricing system for banks based on           
                  international best practices.

The Committee’s observations and recommendations:

  1. The concept of BPLR is outdated and is out of sync with the present market conditions
  2. BPLR system is not very effective in achieving the objectives of RBI in terms of monetary policy transmission
  3. BPLR system lacks transparency
  4. Due to distortions in the BPLR, banks were lending at rates much below the BPLR thus defeating principles of commercial judgment
  5. A new system called BASE RATE should be introduced replacing the existing BPLR
  6. Base Rate would be based on the following:

                                                              i.            The card interest rate on retail deposits (deposits below Rs 15 lakh) of maturity of up to one year (adjusted for CASA deposits)
                                                            ii.            Loss incurred by banks for maintenance of CRR and SLR
                                                          iii.            Overhead cost of banks
                                                          iv.            Average return on net worth
  1. The actual rate charged to borrowers would be Base Rate increased by operating costs, credit risk premium, tenor premium and others
  2. Banks should not lend at rates below the Base Rate
  3. However, the following exceptions may be given to the above rule, meaning, banks can charge interest rates below the Base Rate for the following types of loans:
                                                               i.            Loans pertaining to selective credit control
                                                            ii.            Credit card receivables
                                                          iii.            Loans to own employees
                                                          iv.            DRI loans
  1. Base Rate System would be applicable for loans with maturity of one year and above (including working capital loans)
  2. Banks may give loans for periods of less than one year at fixed or floating rates without reference to Base Rate subject to certain conditions. In this regard, the Committee has recommended certain ceilings for such sub-Base Rate lending.
  3. Base rate shall be the basis for floating rate loans also. Banks may use Base Rate or any external market-based benchmark rates (like, G-Sec, Repo rate, MIBOR, CP, CD etc).
  4. At present, the Government administers loans of up to Rs 2 lakh to small borrowers, under priority sector and others. This administered regime shall be discontinued and these loans can be brought under the Base Rate system.
  5. Interest rate on rupee export credit should not exceed Base Rate
  6. Educational loans should be given a special exemption and they should continue to be administered. Interest rate on educational loans should not exceed Base Rate plus 200 basis points.
  7. Banks should pass on the information about Base Rates to the public through their websites




ANNEXURE II




Mathematically, the Base Rate is calculated as follows as per RBI’s illustration:

Base Rate = a + b + c + d


a = cost of deposits/funds = CoD


b = Negative carry on CRR and SLR
 
       [ CoD – (SLR x Tr)]
   =  ----------------------- x 100       –      CoD
       [1 – (CRR + SLR)]

           
                                                              Uc
c = Unallocatable overhead cost = ------ x 100
                                                              Dply


                                                                                   NP           NW                                                                                      
d = Average return on net worth = ------ X ------ x 100
                                                              NW      Dply



Where,

D = Total Deposits = Term deposits + Current a/c deposits + Savings deposits

Dply = Deployable deposits
      = Total deposits less share of deposits locked in SLR and CRR
      = D x [1 – (CRR + SLR)]

CRR = Cash Reserve Ratio

SLR = Statutory Liquidity Ratio

Tr = 364-day Treasury Bill rate

Uc = Unallocatable overhead cost

NP = Net profit

NW = Net worth = Capital + free reserves

Negative carry on SLR and CRR: At present, SLR is 25 per cent and CRR is 6 per cent. CRR balance does not provide any return to banks; while the return on SLR balance is lower than the cost of deposits. As such, SLR and CRR carry negative returns for banks.

Unallocatable Overhead Cost: It is fixed overhead cost consisting of Head Office and Corporate Office costs, which cannot be allocated. Examples of such overhead costs are: aggregate employee compensation relating to administrative functions in corporate office, directors’ and auditors’ fees, legal and premises expenses, depreciation, cost of printing and stationery, expenses incurred on communication and advertising and IT spending, etc.
  



ANNEXURE III




Evolution of BPLR in India : A Snapshot

Early 1990s

Till the early 1990s, deposit and lending rates were mostly administered by RBI. In the early 1990s, RBI started deregulating deposit rates and lending rates.

October 1994

Lending rates for loans with credit limits of over Rs. 2 lakh deregulated. Banks were required to declare their Prime lending rates (PLRs).

February 1997

Banks allowed to prescribe separate PLRs and spreads over PLRs, both for loan and cash credit components.

October 1997

For term loans of 3 years and above, separate Prime Term Lending Rates (PTLRs) were required to be announced by banks.

April 1998

PLR converted as a ceiling rate on loans up to Rs.2 lakh.

April 99

Tenor-linked Prime Lending Rates (TPLRs) introduced.

October 1999

Banks were given flexibility to charge interest rates without reference to the PLR in respect of certain categories of loans/credit.

April 2000

Banks allowed to charge fixed/floating rate on their lending for credit limit of over Rs.2 lakh.

April 2001

The PLR ceased to be the floor rate for loans above Rs. 2 lakh.
Commercial banks allowed to lend at sub-PLR rate for loans above Rs.2 lakh.
April 2002

A system of collection of additional information from banks on the (a) maximum and minimum interest rates on advances charged by the banks; and (b) range of interest rates with large value of business and disseminating through the Reserve Bank’s website was introduced.

April 2003

In place of PLR, RBI announced introduction of a new system called Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR). The Reserve Bank advised banks to announce a BPLR with the approval of their boards. The BPLR was seen as a reference rate and was to be computed taking into consideration (i) cost of funds; (ii) operational expenses; and (iii) a minimum margin to cover regulatory requirements of provisioning and capital charge, and profit margin. The system of tenor-linked PLR discontinued.




ANNEXURE IV




SOME TERMS DEFINED:

Floor Rate                  : It is the rate below which a bank cannot lend
Reference Rate         : It is the rate which is used by banks as a benchmark for arriving                                         at the lending rate. Usually, lending rates are linked to the                                              reference rate. LIBOR (London Inter-bank Offered Rate) is                                          considered a reference rate for a majority of foreign currency                                                   loans available abroad.
PLR                             : Prime Lending Rate was traditionally the lowest rate charged to                                          the prime borrowers with highest credit rating
BPLR                          : The Benchmark Prime Lending Rate was seen as a reference                                            rate and was to be computed taking into consideration (i) cost of                                           funds; (ii) operational expenses; and (iii) a minimum margin to                                             cover regulatory requirements of provisioning and capital charge,                               and profit margin.
Policy Rates              : Repo & Reverse Repo Rates & Bank Rate are RBI’s policy rates   
Reserve Ratios          : SLR and CRR are the reserve ratios of RBI



SOURCES:

RBI website
Deepak Mohanty Committee’s Report of the Working Group on study of BPLR
Economic Times, Business Line, Outlook Profit, etc.


DISCLAIMER: The views are personal. The views need not be construed as those of the organisation which the author represents. He blogs at: 







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