Tuesday, 11 October 2022

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022 - vrk100 - 11Oct2022

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

 

(Updates 18Mar2023, 15Feb2023, 14Feb2023, 06Dec2022 and 13Oct2022 are available below. Even though this blog was posted originally on 11Oct2022, I had continually updated this blog whenever new information was made available on the buyback offer.) 

 

(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any plunge.)

 

1. Infosys Limited (Infosys hereinafter) on 10Oct2022 announced, through a BSE stock exchange filing, that its board of directors would meet on 13Oct2022 to consider a proposal to buy back the company's equity shares (fully paid-up). Its board is also considering the Jul-Sep2022 quarter results at its meeting on the same day.

 

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Related:

Zydus Lifesciences Buyback Offer 2022

FDC Limited Buyback Offer 2022

GE Shipping Company Buyback Offer 2021  

Kaveri Seed Company buyback offer 2021

Crompton Greaves Buyback Offer 2013

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2. The above BSE announcement was made after the closure of market hours on 10Oct2022, at which the price of Infosys was Rs 1,462.70 and the market cap was nearly Rs 615,500 crore.

3. In the recent past, Infosys had bought back its shares three times -- in 2017, 2019 and 2021. The details are presented in Table 1 below:

Table 1: Past Buyback Offers >   


4. The 2017 offer was through 'tender offer' route and promoters participated in the buyback (Table 1 above). Both the 2019 and 2021 offers were through the 'open market via stock exchange' route. Under this route, promoters cannot participate in the buyback as per capital market regulator SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) guidelines.

5. Let us see what percentage of paid-up equity shares were cancelled / extinguished through the three buyback offers in the past five years.

Table 2: Percentage of shares cancelled via buybacks > 



6. As shown in Table 2 above, the percentage of shares extinguished are 4.92, 2.53 and 1.31 through the 2017, 2019 and 2021 buyback offers respectively. In all the three offers, the company was able to cancel 8.54 percent of paid-up equity shares in total. As the number of shares were reduced, the earnings per share (EPS) got a boost with the share buybacks.

7. It's important for investors to understand the intentions of the company's management for share buyback. Investors need to ask why to use the share buyback, instead of dividends, for cash distribution to shareholders. One of the important criteria to know management's intentions is whether the promoters are participating in the buyback. (Indian tax policies have some peculiar provisions, providing tax arbitrage for buyback offers as compared to dividend payments. See this blog for more on such tax distortions.)

8. The share buybacks or repurchases are beneficial for shareholders if and only the company is buying back the shares at attractive valuations. Investors need to assess whether the buyback price is below the intrinsic value of the shares. If the company is buying back shares at higher valuations, the company is destroying shareholder value. 

(I'll be updating this blog as and when new developments take place in relation to the buyback offer) 

 

Update 13Oct2022

 

9. As scheduled, Infosys' Board of Directors met on 13Oct2022 and announced quarterly results and brief details of buyback (the announcement was made after closure of market hours). As at close of 13Oct22, the market price of its stock is Rs 1,420 per share with a market cap of Rs 597,400 crore.

10. Limited details of buyback as announced on 13Oct2022: 


11. Comparison of all four buybacks including the current one: 

 

 

Update 06Dec2022

 

12. The company today made a public announcement giving full details of the buyback proposal.

13. The maximum buyback size (which is Rs 9,300 crore) represents 14.84% and 13.31% of the company's aggregate of the total paid-up capital and free reserves on a standalone and consolidated basis respectively as of 30Sep2022.

14. As the maximum buyback size is more than 10% of the total paid-up capital and free reserves based on both standalone and consolidated financial statements, shareholder approval by way of a special resolution is required for the buyback proposal as per SEBI buyback norms. And the same was approved on 02Dec2022.

15. The buyback will start on 07Dec2022 and the last date will be earlier of 06Jun2023 (that is, six months from the date of start) or when the company fully deploys the maximum buyback size.

16. As per buyback norms, the company has already deposited  2.5% of the maximum buyback size into an Escrow Account opened for this purpose. 

17. Reasons cited by the company for buyback are:

i.) to return surplus cash to shareholders as per Capital Allocation Policy; and


ii.) to create long-term shareholder value through improvement in return on equity and earnings per share; and

18. The maximum buyback price (Rs 1,850 per share) represents:

i) Premium of 25.70% and 25.55% to the volume weighted average market price (VWAP) of the Equity Shares on BSE and NSE, respectively, during the three months period ending October 10, 2022, being the date of the intimation to the Indian Stock Exchanges regarding the proposal of buyback.


ii. Premium of 30.70% and 30.73% to the VWAP of the Equity Shares on BSE and NSE, respectively, during the two weeks period ending October 10, 2022

 
iii. Premium of 26.48% over the closing price of the Equity Shares on BSE as well as NSE as on October 10, 2022.

 

19. The indicative maximum number of Equity Shares at the Maximum Buyback Price and the Maximum Buyback Size bought back would be 502,70,270 Equity Shares (“Maximum Buyback Shares”), comprising approximately 1.19% of the total paid-up equity share capital of the Company as of September 30, 2022 (on a standalone basis).

The Company shall utilize at least 50% of the amount earmarked as the Maximum Buyback Size for the Buyback, that is, Rs 4,650 crore  (“Minimum Buyback Size”).

 

20. Company's Capital Allocation Policy: As per company's policy approved in Jul2019, the company has to return approximately 85% of the free cash flow cumulatively over a five-year period through a combination of semi-annual dividends and / or share buybacks and / or special dividends.

 

Update 14Feb2023 - Closure of Buyback

 

21. After closure of market hours on 13Feb2023, Infosys Limited announced the closure of the buyback offer. Between 07Dec2022 and 10Feb2023, the company bought back 604,26,348 equity shares at an average price of Rs 1,539.06 per share (against the maximum buyback price of Rs 1,850) -- using Rs 9,300 crore (100 percent of the maximum buyback size).



Update 15Feb2023

22. Infosys Limited today published a post-buyback public announcement with regard to the closure of the buyback.  

23. In the past five years between 2017 and now, the company was able to extinguish 9.72 percent of the net equity shares (after adjusting for addition of shares via employee stock options). Details are given in the table > 

 


As you've seen in the past four months, I had continually provided information updates on the buyback offer. With this, there will be no more blog updates on the buyback offer.

 

Update 18Mar2023

24. Even though Infosys' buyback closed and there is nothing more to write about it, I made a small analysis on the price action one month after the closure of buyback. Interestingly, the current market cap at Rs 590,480 crore is 4.1 percent below the market cap on the date the company announced (i.e., 10Oct2022) its decision to hold a board meeting for considering a buyback.

 



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References:  

2022 post-buyback announcement

2021 post-buyback announcement

2019 post-buyback announcement

2017 post-buyback announcement 


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Read more:  

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

Global Market Data 30Sep2022 - vrk100 - 11Oct2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

 

 

Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 30 September 2022, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows: 

Table 1: (please click on the image to view better)

 

One notable feature of the financial markets in the past quarter has been the relentless rise of US dollar against the other major currencies. The Japanese Yen, the Euro and the British Pound have weakened considerably against the dollar, pushing the US dollar index or DXY by seven percent to 112 in the quarter.


Relatively speaking, Indian stocks outperformed other markets in the quarter, showing resilience amidst global weakness. Commodities, including crude oil, metals and agricultural commodities, have cooled off. And US 10-year Treasury yield shot up by more than 80 basis points to 3.83 percent. 



Year-to-date (past nine-month returns) global market data as on 30Sep2022 are presented below:

Table 2: (please click on the image to view better) 


YTD, Indian stocks have showed extraordinary resilience in the face of major global headwinds in the form of currency collapse, rising global bond yields, Russia's Ukraine invasion and others. 

This year will be seen as the year of the mighty US dollar. Inexplicably, both bond and stock prices have collapsed this year, especially in the US and other Western markets. The US stocks appear to be in a bear market with indices losing more than 20 percent during this year. Bitcoin (in US dollars) has lost three-fifths of its price.

The uncertainty in the financial markets is likely to continue until the major central banks stop raising interest rates aggressively.

 

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Read more:  

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Primer on Credit Rating Scales

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

Saturday, 13 August 2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Jul2022 - vrk100 - 13Aug2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Jul2022 - vrk100 - 13Aug2022 


 

JP Morgan Asset Management publishes a comprehensive presentation every month end, containing various slides on global markets, especially those relating to the US markets.
  
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Related Blogs: 

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Apr2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jan2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Dec2021

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Nov2021

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Aug2021

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This is a very useful and informative guide for financial market professionals or FMPs.  This "JP Morgan Guide to the Markets" can be accessed here. The following are some of the highlights presented in this guide: all the data are at the end of 31Jul2022:




 
























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Read more: 

Indians' Love for Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by  Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 30Jun2022

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Global Market Data 30Jun2022

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

When Will Foreign Investors Stop Selling Indian Stocks?

Indian Mutual Funds and The Art of Ripping Off Investors  

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

 

Tuesday, 12 July 2022

Indians' Love for Cash Continues Unabated - vrk100 - 12Jul2022

Indians' Love for Cash Continues Unabated

 

 

(P.S. Update 24May2023, with latest data, is available at the end of the article) 
 
(Data from Jun2026 are shifted to Indian Economy Data Bank) 

 

The article discusses whether Indians' love for cash has waned after the note ban of November 2016. Data of more than 10 years are used to find out the truth relating to use of cash in India.


Table 1: Data showing Currency in Circulation and Currency-GDP ratio > 

 

Data from 2011-12 to 2021-22 >


(please click on the image to view better)


 

 Currency and Economic Growth

 

As Table 1 above shows currency in circulation (CIC) has been growing at a much faster pace than nominal GDP growth. Even though cashless payment systems have shown phenomenal growth in the past decade, cash is still dominant with Indians.

 

Currency in circulation is a sum of Bank notes, Rupee coins and Small coins. There are various measures to observe the dominance of cash in India. I present here two important measures, namely, year-on-year growth in currency in circulation and currency as a percentage of GDP. 

 

Currency in circulation tends to grow along with the growth of a country's economy. CIC growth is also connected with rising prices (inflation).  

 

As it’s not a good idea to look at absolute numbers in isolation, it’s better to normalise the absolute CIC numbers by adjusting them with nominal GDP—hence, the second measure of currency-GDP ratio. For comparison purposes, I’ve included data relating to consumer price inflation (CPI) and growth rates in nominal GDP (gross domestic product at current market prices) also.

 

Here, I’ve provided data for the past eleven years, from 2011-12 to 2021-22. There are two years in which we experienced key developments. One is year 2016, when the Government of India banned high-value bank notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 (demonetisation); and another is 2020, when India (like others across the globe) suffered from draconian lockdowns after the outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic.

 

During the financial year 2016-17, currency in circulation declined by 19.7 per cent due to note ban of November 2016. And in 2020-21, India’s nominal GDP declined by 1.4 per cent

 

To smoothen out the effect of these two turbulent years, let us look at the annualised growth of these measures between 2015-16 (one year before the note ban) and now, that is, 2021-22.

 

Table 2: Annualised growth rate or compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) between 2015-16 and 2021-22 are:

 



Despite the tall claims of the Indian government, Indians’ love for cash continues, with the currency in circulation outpacing the growth in nominal GDP and consumer price inflation (CPI).

 

As shown in Table 2, in the past six years (between 2015-16 and 2021-22), annualised growth in currency is 11.14 percent; whereas the CAGR of nominal GDP and CPI inflation are much lower at 9.44 percent and 4.88 percent respectively.

 

Currency-GDP Ratio

 

Another important measure also points to the fact that cash is still dominant form of usage, both for payments and as a store of value. Currency as a percentage of GDP used to be at 12.1 percent in 2015-16 (pre-note ban period) and during the note ban year of 2016-17, it plunged to 8.7 percent. But subsequently, the currency-GDP started rising with the currency-GDP ratio increasing to 13.3 percent in 2021-22 (Table 1).

 

The data bear the fact that despite the shock of note ban in 2016 and continued acceleration of digital payments, Indians are still fond of cash as a primary means of payments and as a store of value. 

 

Surging Digital Payments

 

However, India has leapfrogged as far as non-cash (digital) payments are concerned. Payment and Settlement systems, like, RTGS (real time gross settlement) and NEFT (national electronic fund transfer)-- introduced in 2005--have facilitated the acceleration of digital payments.

 

Of course, the acceleration of digital payments is the most welcome feature of India’s efforts to deepen and widen the penetration of the payment systems. And in recent years, UPI (unified payments interface) has revolutionised the digital payments in India. 

 

Due to uncertainties after the COVID-19 Pandemic, people have hoarded more cash than usual as a form of security. This primarily accounts for the higher growth of currency in circulation in 2019-20 and 2020-21 (Table 1). 

 

Why Hold Currency?

 

Why do people hold currency? The main reason are:

  • for doing financial transactions
  •  as a store of value for contingencies (hoarding)

  • some use it in underground economy

 

High cash usage bias is not a phenomenon peculiar to India. Cash reigns supreme not only in India, but in other countries as well. Even advanced economies, like, Germany and Japan, depend predominantly on currency for conducting financial transactions, though COVID-19 has changed the payment habits of people--away from cash and toward electronic means.

 

Cash usage is ubiquitous, it's easy to use and provides great convenience for people. Maybe, instead of trying for a cashless utopia, it's better to focus more on a less-cash world.

 

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P.S. Update 29Nov2023
 
RBI occasional paper released on 28Nov2023Cash versus Digital Payment Transactions in India: Decoding the Currency Demand Paradox
 
P.S. Update 24May2023
 
Data on currency in circulation, nominal GDP and inflation are updated with FY 2022-23 numbers:
 
Growth in currency in circulation decreased to 7.9 percent in FY 2022-23 compared to previous year, but nominal GDP growth is 15.9 percent in the same year. Currency as a percentage of GDP decreased to 12.4 percent in FY 2022-23 compared to previous year.

Currency in circulation for the past nine years (between 2013-14 and 2022-23) has grown at a CAGR of 11.19 percent, which is slightly higher than the nominal GDP growth of 10.33 percent for the same nine year period. Average CPI inflation rate in the past nine years is around 5 percent.




 

References:

RBI Annual Report May2022 

RBI Report on Progress of Digitisation from cash to electronic Feb2020

RBI Monthly Bulletin for several years

 

-------------------

Read more: 

Exit India Policy by  Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns 30Jun2022

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Global Market Data 30Jun2022

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

When Will Foreign Investors Stop Selling Indian Stocks?

Indian Mutual Funds and The Art of Ripping Off Investors  

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100