Showing posts with label financial markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial markets. Show all posts

Friday, 17 July 2026

The Biggest Investing Lessons Come from History 17Jul2026

The Biggest Investing Lessons Come from History 17Jul2026

 

 


 

 

Every generation of investors believes it is living through a market event unlike anything the world has seen before.

A new crisis arrives. A new reason for panic emerges. A new group of investors says, "This time is different."

But when we look back at history, we discover something interesting. The names change. The countries change. The technology changes. But human behaviour remains remarkably the same.

Fear and greed have always driven markets.

On 19Oct1987, the world witnessed one of the most dramatic days in stock market history. Known as Black Monday, the S&P 500 fell nearly 20 per cent, while the Dow dropped more than 22 per cent in a single day.

Imagine watching one-fifth of your wealth disappear in a matter of hours. There was no pandemic, no world war and no single event that fully explained the collapse. Fear simply spread from one investor to another. 

People sold because everyone around them was selling.

That pattern has repeated many times.

But this was not the first time markets had behaved this way.

I still remember the Indian stock market crash of Jan2008. Between Jan10th and Jan25th, many Indian stocks lost 50 to 70 per cent of their value. Companies that investors believed represented India's long-term growth story suddenly became victims of panic selling.

Many investors who thought they understood risk learned a painful lesson: a great company or a strong economic story does not protect you from market fear.

During the global financial crisis of 2008, Lehman Brothers, once one of the most respected financial institutions in the world, collapsed into bankruptcy. A company that had existed for more than 150 years disappeared because years of excessive risk-taking eventually caught up with it.

Enron followed a similar path earlier in the decade. Once considered one of America's most innovative companies, it went from a Wall Street favourite to bankruptcy after accounting fraud was uncovered. Investors who believed the company was too successful to fail lost almost everything.

The lesson was clear: markets can punish investors who confuse popularity with safety.

The technology boom and bust provided more examples.

In 2022, Meta (aka Facebook) lost more than one-fourth of its value in a single trading session after investors became concerned about slowing growth and rising costs. Around the same period, Netflix fell more than 35 per cent in one day after reporting its first subscriber decline in over a decade. 

PayPal also lost almost 25 per cent in a single session after disappointing investors with its outlook.

In the past few days, Lucid Motors lost more than 50 per cent of its value in a single day after reports raised fears about a possible bankruptcy or restructuring, although the company denied those reports. IBM, one of the world's oldest technology companies, also experienced one of its largest-ever single-day declines (about 25 per cent) after a profit warning.

These were not unknown companies. They were among the most recognised technology businesses in the world.

Across Asia, investors have experienced similar shocks.

In India, Adani group companies saw a sharp decline after the Hindenburg report triggered concerns among investors. In China and Hong Kong, property giant Evergrande collapsed under massive debt, wiping out billions of dollars in shareholder value. 

South Korea provided another recent reminder of how quickly market sentiment can change. In the past few months, semiconductor giant SK Hynix experienced extreme volatility, with its shares seeing sharp daily swings as investors reassessed expectations around the artificial intelligence boom. 

The broader KOSPI index also witnessed dramatic moves, with trading halts triggered during periods of intense selling pressure as concerns spread across technology and chip stocks.

These examples show that volatility is not limited to weak companies or troubled economies. Even some of the world's most successful businesses can experience sudden and painful declines when investor confidence changes.

The details are different every time.

The emotions are not. We investors tend to move between irrational exuberance and downright pessimism.

Markets rise when optimism feeds on itself. Investors see rising prices and become convinced that the future can only get better. Confidence attracts more buyers, which pushes prices even higher.

Then something changes.

A disappointing result, an economic shock, a financial scandal or simply a change in sentiment can turn optimism into fear. Investors who once rushed to buy suddenly rush to sell.

This is why studying stock market history matters.

History cannot tell you when the next crash will happen. It cannot predict which company will become the next success story or the next failure.

But history teaches you how markets behave.

It reminds you that crashes are not unusual. They are part of investing. It helps you understand that extreme fear and extreme optimism are often temporary emotions rather than permanent realities.

An investor who has studied past market crashes is less likely to panic when the next one arrives. 

Instead of following the crowd, they can step back and ask better questions: Has the business truly changed? Is the fear justified? Or is the market simply reacting emotionally?


Action button for long term investors under uncertainty and volatility:

1) Separate a falling price from changing facts.

If only the share price has dropped, don't rush to act. If you've learned something important about the business that you didn't know before, take another careful look.

2) Decide what would change your mind before it happens.

When you're thinking clearly, write down the facts or events that would make you sell or rethink your investment.

3) Check if the business is really making money.

Some companies, like Enron, Lehman Brothers and Evergrande, looked stronger than they really were because of hidden debt or misleading accounts. Many tech companies that fell in 2022 were different—their prices dropped, but most didn't have the same accounting problems.

4) A long-term approach only works if the business survives.

Time helps strong businesses grow. It doesn't save weak businesses—it often exposes their problems even faster.



That ability to stay calm is one of the greatest advantages an investor can have.

The biggest investing lessons do not come only from financial statements, valuation models or market forecasts. They come from understanding people.

Every market cycle teaches the same lesson: human nature does not change.

The companies will change. The headlines will change. The reasons for the next crisis will change.

But fear and greed will continue to shape markets.

And that is why history remains one of the greatest teachers for every investor.

 

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Seth Klarman quote:

“The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” 

Are Indian Stocks Immune to Adani Stock Meltdown? 08Feb2023 

Meltdown in Adani group Listed Stocks 04Feb2023 

Adani Stocks Meltdown and Nifty Next 50 Index 15Feb2023 

22Mar2026 Tweet thread - Financial market history - regime change or regime shift -  human behaviour, greed and fear - Post-COVID and pre-COVID, history rhymes, overconfidence bias - illusion of control bias - market timing - what actually works 

05Apr2025 Tweet - embrace uncertainty and  volatility - decision-making under uncertainty and volatility

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Historical Examples:

Black Monday (19Oct1987): The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6 per cent in a single day, while the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20 per cent. It remains one of the worst one-day market crashes in history.

India Market Crash (Jan2008): Months before the global financial crisis, many Indian stocks lost 50 to 70 per cent of their value within weeks as investor confidence collapsed.

Lehman Brothers Collapse (15Sep2008): Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and its stock lost almost all its value as the global financial crisis intensified.

Enron Collapse (2001): Once considered one of America's most innovative companies, Enron collapsed after an accounting fraud scandal. Its stock fell from around $90 to almost zero.

Meta Platforms (03Feb2022): Meta shares fell about 26 per cent in one day after disappointing guidance, slowing user growth, and concerns about rising spending.

Netflix (20Ap2022): Netflix shares dropped more than 35 per cent in one session after reporting its first subscriber decline in over a decade.

PayPal (02Feb2022): PayPal fell nearly 25 per cent in one day after weaker growth expectations disappointed investors.

Adani Group Stocks (Feb2023): Adani Group companies experienced sharp declines after the Hindenburg Research report triggered concerns among investors.

Evergrande Crisis (2021 onwards): China’s property giant Evergrande faced a debt crisis, leading to a collapse in its share price and raising concerns about China's property sector.

SK Hynix and KOSPI Volatility (2026): South Korean markets experienced sharp swings as investors reassessed expectations around artificial intelligence, semiconductor demand, and technology valuations.

Lucid Motors (Jul2026): Lucid shares fell sharply after bankruptcy-related concerns and investor uncertainty triggered heavy selling.

IBM (Jul2026): IBM experienced one of its largest single-day declines after concerns about earnings and future growth expectations affected investor sentiment.

Mar2020 COVID Crash: Global markets experienced extreme volatility as the pandemic triggered one of the fastest bear markets in history, with several days of double-digit index moves.

Copper Market Cycles: Copper has experienced repeated boom-and-bust cycles over decades, showing how quickly optimism can turn into fear across financial markets. The same goes with gold and silver too. 

 


Thursday, 31 December 2009

FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS from APRIL 2009 to SEPT. 2009-VRK10-25102009

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DEVELOPMENTS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS BETWEEN APRIL AND SEPTEMBER 2009. This article chronicles several important developments that have occurred in the financial markets the world over during this six-month period with particular reference to India. For example, several policy initiatives have been taken by Reserve Bank of India during the reference period. All these have been codified and brought under a single document for the benefit of general readers and experts. This is an easy reference guide to students of financial markets. To aid them, the developments have been detailed month-wise. Please have a look at them:

APRIL 2009

• Government of India, at a meeting with the IBA, has implored Public Sector Banks to see if they could further pare their lending rates to give a boost to the sagging economy. However, the GOI official said that PSBs were not being directed to bring down their lending rates.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) has on April 2nd cut its lending rate by 25 bp to 1.25 per cent. This is the sixth time ECB has lowered its key rate since October 2008, when it stood at 4.25 per cent.

• US unemployment rate has increased to 8.5 per cent in March 2009, the highest level since 1983

• Banking Cash Transaction Tax (BCTT) is being withdrawn w.e.f. April 1, 2009, as promised by the then Finance Minister, P.Chidambaram, while presenting the budget for 2008-09. BCTT was introduced in 2005

• RBI Governor has said that banks were not responding to monetary policy signals by refusing to cut lending rates. He admitted that monetary policy transmission was weak in India.

• The Ministry of Corporate Affairs had on March 31, 2009, amended its earlier rule, issued in 2006, to allow corporates the flexibility of taking the losses arising from exchange rate differences to the balance sheet and adjust them against the depreciable capital asset for whose acquisition the borrowings were made in foreign currency. India Inc was keen on this relaxation as the rupee had fallen against the US dollar in recent months and many of their hedging strategies went awry. However, this relaxation of AS-11 (Accounting Standard 11) is applicable only for corporates registered under the Companies Act; but not for non-corporate entities as per clarification from ICAI.

• (Amendment to RBI circular dated 25.3.09) RBI on 9.4.09 decided to defer the implementation of para (iv) of the circular dated March 25, 2009 ibid to the year 2009-10. Accordingly, banks will have the choice between either deducting their existing floating provisions from Gross NPAs to arrive at net NPAs or reckoning it as part of Tier II capital subject to the overall ceiling of 1.25% of total Risk Weighted Assets. It may be noted that this choice is limited to the financial year 2008-09 only. (RBI, vide its circular dated 25.3.09 advised banks as follows: Floating Provisions cannot be netted from gross NPAs to arrive at net NPAs, but could be reckoned as part of Tier II capital subject to the overall ceiling of 1.25% of total Risk Weighted Assets.)

• Monetization of fiscal deficit is not on RBI’s agenda for now, according to RBI Governor D.Subbarao. However, he said a view would be taken on monetization of fiscal deficit at an appropriate time.

• Banks borrow money from CBLO market (CCIL platform) at sub-one per cent level and lend it to RBI at 3.5 per cent using Reserve Repo route under LAF, making decent returns from arbitrage

• The Reserve Bank of India has, on April 16, 2009, issued ‘in-principle-approval’ to four companies to set up credit information companies (CICs). These are: (i) Credit Information Bureau (India) Ltd., (ii) Equifax Credit Information Services Pvt. Ltd, (iii) Experian Credit Information Company of India Pvt. Ltd, and (iv) Highmark Credit Information Services Pvt. Ltd.

• RBI, in its Annual Policy 2009-10 released on 21.04.09, lowered LAF-Repo and LAF-Reverse Repo rates by 25 bp each to 4.75% and 3.25% respectively, while keeping the CRR and Bank Rate intact.

• The Indian Government would buy bonds worth USD 10 billion as its contribution towards increasing the capital base of IMF by USD 500 billion announced at the G-20 meeting in London early this month. India’s share in close to 2% in the Fund and as such it is contributing 2% of the new capital base to the IMF.

• Banks permitted to issue Guarantees beyond Ten Years: In view of the changing scenario in the banking industry where banks extend long term loans for periods longer than 10 years for various projects, the Reserve Bank has now permitted banks to issue guarantees for periods beyond 10 years.

MAY 2009

• India’s merchandise exports declined 33 per cent in March 2009 to touch USD 11.52 billion, the lower performance in three months of fourth quarter of financial year 2008-09. This is the sixth month in a row that exports registered a decline. For the full year 2008-09, merchandise export grew at only 3.4 per cent in dollar terms to touch USD 168.70 billion. This is the first time in a decade that merchandise exports recorded a single-digit growth.

• The current problem with the US is that US citizens have increased their savings in times of a an economic crisis. This is further aggravating the slowing US economy.

• The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate by 25 bp to one per cent which is a record low since the ECB’s inception in 1998

• CIBIL (Credit Information Bureau of India Limited) and Transunion launched a score for personal loans. The score will help in predicting the likelihood of delinquencies by personal loan borrowers over a period of 12 months.

• The Central Government has lifeted its two-year ban on wheat futures in the commodity exchanges. However, the ban on futures of rice, urad dal and tur dal continues.

• Bharti Airtel’s subscriber base has touched 10 crore in 14 years of its existence. The company has a 25 per cent market share in India. The base surged from 2.50 crore in 2006 to 10 crore at present.

• The RBI Governor D.Subbarao has said that banks must pass on the cost benefits from technology-based products and services to customers. He said he was surprised to note that transfer of funds from ne branch of a bank to another which are both under Core Banking Solutions entailed a service charge for the customer.

• Monday, the 18th of May 2009, was a historic day for Indian stock markets. For the first time, the benchmark indices, BSE-Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty 50 had hit upper circuit, not once but twice during market hours on that day. At 9.55 am, the indices hit the first upper circuit of 15 per cent and the trading was suspended. Upon reopening of trade at 11.55 am, the indices hit the second upper circuit of 20 per cent and the trading was suspended for the day.

• RBI Governor had on May 22nd said: “Large borrowings by the government run against the low interest rate environment that RBI is trying to maintain to spur investment demand. However, with every percentage point increase in the fiscal deficit, maintaining adequate liquidity in the system becomes that much more difficult. During the first half of 2009-10, planned OMO purchases and unwinding of MSS will add primary liquidity that will be equivalent to 300-basis point reduction in CRR.”

• Oil subsidies to Oil Marketing Companies (IOC, HPCL, BPCL, etc) stood at Rs 1.03 lakh crore or almost two per cent of country’s GPD in 2008-09

• Forward Markets Commission (the commodities regulator in India) had on May 26th banned futures trading in sugar till December 31, 2009

• According to RBI’s report on the currency and finance, public sector banks in India require a capital of Rs 3.70 lakh crore for expansion in the next five years

• Guidelines for Issuance and Operation of Pre-paid Payment Instruments: The Reserve Bank has on April 27, 2009, notified the guidelines for the issuance and operation of pre-paid payment instruments in India. All persons currently operating payment systems involved in the issuance of pre-paid payment instruments and those proposing to operate such systems would have to seek authorisation from the Reserve Bank of India.

• Interest on Savings Bank Account on Daily Basis: In view of the present satisfactory level of computerisation in commercial bank branches, the Reserve Bank has proposed that from April 1, 2010, scheduled commercial banks would calculate payment of interest on savings bank accounts on a daily product basis.

JUNE 2009

• India’s exports shrank by 33.2 per cent in April 2009 (USD 10.74 billion), while imports (USD 16.08 billion) registered a fall of 36.6 per cent

• EXIT STRATEGY: Central Banks around the world, it seems, have been looking for an “Exit Strategy” – that refers to the process of withdrawal of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packages that governments and central banks were forced to inject into their flagging economies. If inflation resurfaces, central banks will be hard pressed to withdraw liquidity from the system.

• SSI units are exempted from paying excise duties up to an annual turnover of Rs 1.50 crore

• Car giant General Motors (GM) has filed for bankruptcy protection, marking the biggest failure of an industrial company in US history. The widely expected move comes after GM had seen its losses widen following a steep fall in sales in recent years. General Motor’s move into bankruptcy protection is backed by the US government, which is expected to take a 60% stake in the company.

• The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has said that mutual funds can now invest in Indian Depository Receipts (IDRs). IDRs are similar to the more well-known American Depository Receipts (ADRs) or the Global Depository Receipts (GDRs), which allow foreign companies to raise money via the Indian capital markets and for Indian investors to buy into shares of foreign companies.

• BRIC SUMMIT: The world's newest economic grouping has ended its first major summit by calling for a more diversified international monetary system. But the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China stopped short of criticising the world's dominant currency, the US dollar. The group also repeated calls for greater representation at major institutions, such as the World Bank.

• From the SEBI press release of June 18, 2009:

Transparency in payment of commission to Mutual Fund distributors:

There shall be no entry load for the schemes, existing or new, of a Mutual Fund. The upfront commission to distributors shall be paid by the investor to the distributor directly.

• National Stock Exchange’s S&P CNX Nifty50 index had moved to ‘free float’ market capitalization method effective June 26th. Free float means only those shares that are available for trading readily in the market. Obviously, free float ignores the stake of promoters’ stake while evaluating a company’s free float market capitalization.

• Nandan Nilekani has been appointed as chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India in the rank of a cabinet minister

• For the first time in nearly two years India’s current account recorded a surplus in the March 2009 quarter; with the surplus being USD 4.7 billion

• RBI was in the habit of using multiple-price method while issuing/auctioning Government Securities until March 2009. From April 2009 onwards, RBI has been using uniform price method and discontinuing mentioning the weighted average prices of G-Secs. Under the multiple-price method, successful bidders are expected to pay the actual price at which the bids were made. This implied that the weighted yields could be far lower than actual cut-off yields at the auction. In the uniform price method, all the successful bidders are expected to pay the price equivalent to the cut-off yields, irrespective of the bids made. Incidentally, even the Federal Reserve of New York follows the uniform price method at the treasury auctions.

• Entry Load ban by SEBI on Mutual Funds effective August 1, 2009. There shall be no entry load for all mutual fund schemes effect from August 1, 2009.

• Policy for opening Off-Site ATMs relaxed: Scheduled commercial banks can now install off-site automated teller machines (ATMs) at centres/places identified by them, without taking the Reserve Bank’s prior permission. This general permission is, however, subject to any direction that the Reserve Bank may issue, including for closure/shifting of any such off-site ATMs. Banks should report full details of the off-site ATMs installed by them to RBI.

JULY 2009

• Economic Survey released on July 2nd predicted a growth of 7 per cent for India’s GDP during 2009-10. The survey pitched for big-bang economic reformes.

• General Motors (GM) says it has emerged from bankruptcy protection after creating a "new GM" made up of the carmaker's best assets. The leaner GM will own four key brands including Cadillac and will be 60.8% owned by the US government. Canada, which provided $9.1bn in loans, will have an 11.7% stake. A United Auto Workers union retiree healthcare trust fund will hold 17.5%.

• After Mutual Funds, it is the turn of ULIPs (Unit Linked Insurance Plans) to face the music from the regulatory body. Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) has issued a circular stating that the charges on ULIPs will be capped at 3% from October 1, 2009. The difference between the gross and the net yield to investors should not exceed 3% incase of insurance contracts less than and equal to 10 years, of which fund management charges shall not exceed 1.50%. For contracts more than 10 years the difference should not exceed 2.25%, of which the fund management charges shall not exceed 1.25%.

• IRDA, the insurance regulator in India, has granted an in-principle approval to SBI to start a non-life insurance company, jointly with IAG of Australia

• OP Bhatt, SBI chairman, has said that interest rates may go up by 25 to 100 basis points after October 2009 spurred by credit demand, higher government borrowing and a possible liquidity crunch

• Chinese economy clocked a GDP growth of 7.9 per cent during second quarter (April-June 2009), up from 6.1 per cent achieved during the first quarter

• The total gross market borrowings for the year 2009-10 will be Rs 4.51 lakh crore. Net of repayments of Rs 53,000 crore, the government’s net borrowings will be Rs 3.98 lakh crore. If the tax collections are below the targets, all these statistics and calculations would go haywire and fiscal deficit may shoot up beyond the targeted 6.8 per cent (which itself does not food, oil and fertilizer subsidies) of GDP for 2009-10.

• The government hiked the retail price of petrol by Rs 4 per litre and diesel by Rs 2 a litre while keeping prices of LPG and Kerosene intact

• India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) raised Rs 10,000 crore for refinancing banks for infrastructure lending. Now, the company says it is ready to lend this money to banks in the next six to seven months, said its chairman SS Kohli.

• The current limit for FII investment in government securities is USD 6.5 billion while for corporate debit, it is USD 15 billion

• RBI has permitted FIIs and NRIs to invest in IDRs (Indian Depository Receipts) subject to FEMA. With a view to facilitating eligible companies resident outside India to issue Indian Depository Receipts (IDRs) through a domestic depository and permitting persons resident in India and outside India to purchase, possess, transfer and redeem IDRs, RBI has decided to operationalise the IDR Rules, notified by the Government of India, as amended from time to time, with immediate effect. Accordingly, eligible companies resident outside India may issue IDRs through a domestic depository. Automatic fungibility of IDRs is not permitted. IDRs shall not be redeemable into underlying equity shares before the expiry of a one year period from the date of issue of the IDRs.

• The National Investment Fund (NIF) has a corpus of Rs 1,815 crore. NIF is managed by three PSUs – UTI AMC, SBI Funds Management and LIC Mutual Fund

• RBI Press Release: In accordance with the provisions of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS), the ceiling for the outstandings under the MSS for the fiscal year 2009-10 has been fixed at Rs.50,000 crore. The threshold at which this ceiling will be reviewed is when the outstandings reach Rs.35,000 crore.

• Service tax is now applicable to 106 services. The rate of service tax is 10 per cent plus 3 per cent education cess making it a total of 10.30 per cent. This is effective from February 24th, 2009. In general, the liability to collect services tax and remit the same to the government lies with the service provider. However, in the following cases, the liability is with the service recipient: 1. insurance auxiliary services provided by insurance agents to life and general insurance companies; 2. mutual fund distribution services provided by a distributor to the mutual fund AMC; 3. sponsorship service provided to a body corporate located in India and others.

• Cash Withdrawal at Point-of-Sale: As a further step towards enhancing customer convenience in using plastic money, the Reserve Bank has now permitted cash withdrawals at point-of-sale (POS) terminals. To start with, this facility would be available for all debit cards issued in India, up to Rs.1000 per day. This facility would, however, be subject to the conditions as indicated below:

1. The facility is available only against debit cards issued in India.

2. The maximum amount that can be withdrawn at POS terminals is fixed at Rs.1000 per day.

3. The facility may be made available at any merchant establishment designated by a bank after due diligence is carried out.

4. The facility is available irrespective of whether the card holder makes a purchase or not.

• First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2009-10: Dr D. Subbarao, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, in a meeting with chief executives of major commercial banks presented the First Quarter Review of the Monetary Policy Statement for 2009-10 on July 28, 2009. The highlights are :

Projections:

• GDP growth for 2009-10 placed at 6.0 per cent with an upward bias.

• WPI inflation projected at around 5.0 per cent by end-March 2010.

• Money supply (M3) growth for 2009-10 placed at 18 per cent.

• Aggregate deposits of commercial banks projected to grow by 19 per cent.

• Growth in adjusted non-food credit placed at 20 per cent.

Monetary Measures:

* Bank Rate kept unchanged at 6.0 per cent.

* Repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) retained at 4.75 per cent.

* Reverse repo rate under the LAF retained at 3.25 per cent.

AUGUST 2009

• SEBI has asked mutual funds to charge all classes of investors the same exit load. This would mean that mutual funds cannot charge differential exit loads for retail and institutional investments.

• India and South Korea signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement. This is the second economic agreement for India, the first being with Singapore.

• India has signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with the 10-nation ASEAN. Under the FTA, India will lift import tariffs on 80 per cent traded products between 2013 and 2016, starting from January 1, 2010.

• In the US, the savings from households has gone up to 7 per cent of GDP

• The economies of France and Germany have moved out of recession with both reporting that their GDP grew by 0.3 per cent , quarter on quarter in April to June 2009

• Japan has come out of recession, recording a GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in April-June 2009

• India’s premier business magazine, Business India, has awarded State Bank of India with the BEST BANK 2009 award. SBI had gained market share in 2008-09. It has shown tremendous growth last year though its profit margins (net interest margins) are under pressure due to base effect of high interest rate regime prevailed in August to December 2008.

• During January-June 2009, Chinese banks said to have lent a record USD 1.1 trillion in new loans, triggering off a wave of speculation that this lending spree would create a bubble in the long run with the Shanghai index falling by more than 20 per cent from its July 2009 peak

• The corpus of the New Pension System is put at Rs 6,000 crore

• National Stock Exchange (NSE) re-launched exchange-traded interest rate futures trading on August 31, 2009

• Cash Management Bills: The Government of India, in consultation with the Reserve Bank, has decided to issue a new short-term instrument, known as Cash Management Bills, to meet the temporary cash flow mismatches of the Government. The Cash Management Bills will be non-standard, discounted instruments issued for maturities less than 91 days.

The Cash Management Bills will have features as follows:

a) The tenure, notified amount and date of issue of the proposed Cash Management Bills will depend upon the temporary cash requirement of the Government. The tenure of the proposed Bills will be less than 91 days.

b) The proposed Bills will be issued at discount to the face value through auctions as in the case of the treasury bills.

c) The announcement of the auction of the proposed Bills will be made by the Reserve Bank through separate press release to be issued one day prior to the date of auction.

d) The settlement of the auction will be on T+1 basis.

e) The Non-Competitive Bidding Scheme for treasury bills will not be

extended to the Cash Management Bills.

f) The proposed Bills will be tradable and qualify for ready forward facility. Investment in the proposed Bills will be reckoned as an eligible investment in government securities by banks for SLR purpose under Section 24 of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949.

SEPTEMBER 2009

• Banks will get more flexibility to raise long-term capital as RBI has relaxed guidelines for issuing subordinated Tier-II bonds. The RBI has allowed banks to issue these bonds with ‘call’ and ‘step-up’ option. Subordinated or Tier-II bonds have short maturity periods, usually of five years. Until now, these features were allowed only in case of upper Tier-I, or perpetual bonds, which have longer maturity, of at least 15 years.

• With loan growth yet to pick up, banks have begun parking their surplus resources with mutual funds. Till August 14, the mutual fund investments of both public and private sector banks stood at Rs 1.56 lakh crore, an increase of Rs 1.36 lakh crore over the corresponding period of the last financial year

• Mangala oil field in Barmer, Rajasthan, has begun commercial production of oil for the first time after oil was discovered there five and a half years back. This oil field is owned by Cairn India Limited, a listed company. By 2011, this oil well will be contributing to 20 per cent of India’s oil output. The current production will be 30,000 barrels per day and will peak at 125,000 barrels a day by 2011.

• RBI Governor, D.Subbarao has said that there is no need for a single regulator for the financial markets and that it is better, at least for the time being, to stick to the current arrangement of having separate regulators for banks, insurance, stock market, pensions and so on

• So far, 27 companies have raised Rs 22,000 crore in India through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) route

• Public sector banks in India are getting funds of USD two billion from World Bank to shore up their capital. This money comes at an interest of 1.05 per cent over LIBOR for tenors above 14 years and without any conditionalities attached thereto as part of IBRD’s Development Policy Loan. It approved other loans also: USD one billion to Power Grid Corp and USD 1.12 billion for IIFCL.

• At present, banks are permitted to raise lower Tier II subordinated bonds without special features such as Call and Step up options. On a review of international practices in this regard, it has been decided to permit banks to issue subordinated debt as Tier II capital with call and step-up options.

• The Reserve Bank has finalised the guidelines on classification of commercial real estate (CRE) exposures. The guidelines which have come into effect from September 9, 2009 are -

Definition: Real Estate is generally defined as an immovable asset-land (earth space) and the permanently attached improvements to it. Income-producing real estate (IPRE) as defined in the Basel-II framework, is reproduced below:

“Income-producing real estate (IPRE) refers to a method of providing funding to real estate (such as, office buildings to let, retail space, multifamily residential buildings, industrial or warehouse space and hotels) where the prospects for repayment and recovery on the exposure depend primarily on the cash flows generated by the asset. The primary source of these cash flows would generally be lease or rental payments or the sale of the asset. The borrower may be, but is not required to be, an SPE (special purpose entity), an operating company focused on real estate construction or holdings, or an operating company with sources of revenue other than real estate. The distinguishing characteristic of IPRE versus other corporate exposures that are collateralised by real estate is the strong positive correlation between the prospects for repayment of the exposure and the prospects for recovery in the event of default, with both depending primarily on the cash flows generated by a property”. In terms of the Reserve Bank’s Master Circular on Housing Finance dated July 1, 2009, banks may extend finance to public agencies, and not to private builders, for acquisition and development of land provided, it is a part of the complete project including development of infrastructure, such as, water systems, drainage, roads, provision of electricity, etc. Where land is acquired and developed by state housing boards and other public agencies, banks may extend credit to private builders on commercial terms by way of loans linked to each specific project. Banks are, however, not permitted to extend fund based or non fund based facilities to private builders for acquisition of land even as part of a housing project.

Bank finance can also be granted to individuals for purchase of a plot, provided a declaration is obtained from the borrower that he intends to construct a house on the plot, within such period as may be laid down by the bank.

Priority Sector Lending:

Pursuant to the Government of India announcing the categorisation of activities under services under the Micro Small and Medium Enterprises Development (MSMED) Act, 2006, the Reserve Bank has advised that loans granted by banks for certain activities under micro and small (service) enterprises would be included within the priority sector provided, such enterprises satisfy the definition of micro and small (service) enterprises in respect of investment in equipment (i.e., original cost excluding land and building, furniture, fittings and other items not directly related to the service rendered or as may be notified under the MSMED Act, 2006 should not exceed Rs. 10 lakh and Rs. 2 crore respectively). The activities which would be included within priority sector are : –

(a) Consultancy services including management services.

(b) Composite broker services in risk and insurance management.

(c) Third party administration (TPA) services for medical insurance claims of policy holders.

(d) Seed grading services.

(e) Training-cum-incubator centre.

(f) Educational institutions.

(g) Training institutes.

(h) Retail trade.

(i) Practice of law, i.e. legal services.

(j) Trading in medical instruments (brand new).

(k) Placement and management consultancy services.

(l) Advertising agency and training centres

Accordingly, there will be no separate category for “retail trade” under priority sector. Loans granted by banks for retail trade [i.e., advances granted to retail traders dealing in essential commodities (fair price shops), consumer co¬operative stores and advances granted to private retail traders with credit limits not exceeding Rs. 20 lakh] would henceforth be part of the small (service) enterprises.

Prudential Norms on Income Recognition, Asset Classification, and Provisioning pertaining to Advances - Computation of NPA Levels:

It has been observed that banks follow different methods to compute and report Gross and Net Advances, and Gross and Net NPAs. While, on an account turning NPA, some banks reverse the interest already charged, and stop further interest application, others prefer to make provisions in lieu of interest already credited to Profit and Loss account, and continue to debit interest, though it is credited to Interest Suspense account instead of to Profit and Loss account. While all the aforesaid methods in substance are the same, there is a need for uniformity across banks in reporting of Advances and NPAs, so as to avoid any scope for different interpretations by the auditors/public, as also to improve the comparability of Advances position of banks.

Therefore, in consultation with Indian Banks’ Association, it has been decided that:

a. On an account turning NPA, banks should reverse the interest already charged and not collected by debiting Profit and Loss account, and stop further application of interest. However, banks may continue to record such accrued interest in a Memorandum account in their books, as is the practice currently followed by some banks.

b. For the purpose of computing Gross Advances, interest recorded in the Memorandum account should not be taken into account.

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In addition to the above developments, several initiatives have been taken by the government has taken a number of initiatives. Some of them are like, the Direct Taxes Code Bill 2009, Goods and Services Tax introduction, the New Pension System for all citizens, Limited Liability Partnership (a new corporate structure) and some other initiatives have been heralded through the Union Budget presented in July 2009 and other policy initiatives. GOI has re-introduced exchange-traded interest rate futures in India.

LATEST FINANCIAL TERMS EXPLAINED IN A DOCUMENT dt. 9.10.09

1. BSE IPO Index 6. Swiss Banking Secrecy

2. Helicopter Ben 7. Indian Depository Receipts IDRs

3. Defined Pension vs Defined Contribution 8. Cloud Computing

4. New Pension System NPS 9. Carbon Footprint

5. Debt Management Office DMO 10. Clause 49 of the Listing Agreement

AUTHOR: Rama Krishna Vadlamudi

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FINALLY, WISHING YOU ALL SUCCESS IN YOUR EXAMS

All these issues have been thoroughly discussed through my articles and documents published on the above mentioned websites. Readers may note all these articles have been painstakingly researched supported by authentic data and author’s vast experience in financial markets for more than two decades. And readers can read and download these articles freely from anywhere in the world anytime. Some important articles posted on the websites are:

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Name of the article/document Article Updated as on
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1 India & World-Macro Economic Indicators 23-Oct-09

2 The Swagger is back on Wall Street!-Outlook for Stock Markets 19-Oct-09

3 Currency Futures Market in India-Status Check after one year 14-Oct-09

4 Financial Terms Latest-Decoded 9-Oct-09

5 Government Securities Market in India & Duration Management 9-Oct-09

6 India & World-Macro Economic Indicators 9-Oct-09

7 Bond Basics-All You Wanted to Know About Bonds 5-Oct-09

8 Limited Liability Partnership LLP 5-Oct-09

9 Forex Swaps & IRS - an introduction 4-Oct-09

10 Goods and Services Tax GST-INDIA 4-Oct-09

11 Exchange Traded Funds and NIFTY BeES 30-Sep-09

12 NIFTY BeES-Exchange Traded Fund-making risk less profits 30-Sep-09

13 European Cenral Bank ECB Key Policy Interest Rates 21-Sep-09

14 Money Market Mutual Funds 5-Sep-09

15 Public Provident Fund PPF A/C-Little Knownn Facts 5-Sep-09

16 Income Tax Slabs 2009-10-Resident Indians-HUF 3-Sep-09

17 Direct Taxes Code DTC 2009 2-Sep-09

18 Interest Rate Futures IFRs in India 28-Aug-09

19 Carbon Credits and Kyoto Protocol 25-Oct-07

20 Sovereign Wealth Funds-SWFs 25-Oct-07

21 Particpatory Notes-P Notes 18-Oct-07

22 International Financial Reporting Standards-IFRS 8-Sep-07

23 Perpetual Bonds & their Features 31-Aug-06

24 Real Estate Investment Trusts-REITs 20-Jun-06

25 Commodities Trading 7-Jun-06

26 Information Technology Act, 2002 24-Jun-04