Friday, 14 October 2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Sep2022 - vrk100 - 14Oct2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Sep2022

 

JP Morgan Asset Management publishes a comprehensive presentation every month end, containing various slides on global markets, especially those relating to the US markets.
  
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Related Blogs: 

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jul2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Apr2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Jan2022

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Dec2021

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Nov2021

JP Morgan Guide to Markets Aug2021

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This is a very useful and informative guide for financial market professionals or FMPs.  This "JP Morgan Guide to the Markets" can be accessed here. The following are some of the highlights / images presented in this guide: all the data are at the end of 30Sep2022: 

 1. S&P 500 index forward P/E now is 15.1, versus 21.4 on 31Dec2021 -- forward P/E as on 24Mar2000 (before dot.com bubble) was 25.2


2. 25-year average forward P/E for S&P 500 is 16.8


3. S&P 500: YTD price return (2022) is minus 24.8%; consisting of earnings growth of 5.1% and multiple growth of minus 29.9%


4. peak WTI crude oil price was USD 145.29 per barrel on 03Jul2008


5. as on 30Sep2022: US real yield is minus 2.52%; core CPI inflation is 6.32% and 10-year US treasury yield (nominal) is 3.83%


6. YTD return (from 31Dec21 to 30Sep22): 30-year US Treasury bond return is minus 31.5%; 10-year US Treasury note return is minus 16.9% and TIPS return is minus 13.6%


7. Fixed income YTD returns for the US, Japan, Germany, Italy and the UK range between minus 14.6% and minus 35.4%


8. Equity YTD return: Brazil has done better than India


9. 60% of sales for US companies come from home (means 40% comes from outside the US); for EM 67% comes from home; for Europe 44% comes from home and for Japan 50% comes from home


10. among the commodities basket, the biggest price hike in YTD is natural gas, with 85% increase


11. YTD, all asset classes have given negative returns, except commodities basket


12. 20-year annualised return (2002 to 2021) earned by the average investor is just 3.6 percent versus the 60/40 return of 7.4 percent.

 




  




 


 




 



 



 




 




 



 






 




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Read more:  

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Weblinks and Investing

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Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

 

 

Tuesday, 11 October 2022

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022 - vrk100 - 11Oct2022

Infosys Limited Buyback Offer 2022

 

(Updates 18Mar2023, 15Feb2023, 14Feb2023, 06Dec2022 and 13Oct2022 are available below. Even though this blog was posted originally on 11Oct2022, I had continually updated this blog whenever new information was made available on the buyback offer.) 

 

(This is for information purposes only. This should not be construed as a recommendation. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any plunge.)

 

1. Infosys Limited (Infosys hereinafter) on 10Oct2022 announced, through a BSE stock exchange filing, that its board of directors would meet on 13Oct2022 to consider a proposal to buy back the company's equity shares (fully paid-up). Its board is also considering the Jul-Sep2022 quarter results at its meeting on the same day.

 

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Related:

Zydus Lifesciences Buyback Offer 2022

FDC Limited Buyback Offer 2022

GE Shipping Company Buyback Offer 2021  

Kaveri Seed Company buyback offer 2021

Crompton Greaves Buyback Offer 2013

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2. The above BSE announcement was made after the closure of market hours on 10Oct2022, at which the price of Infosys was Rs 1,462.70 and the market cap was nearly Rs 615,500 crore.

3. In the recent past, Infosys had bought back its shares three times -- in 2017, 2019 and 2021. The details are presented in Table 1 below:

Table 1: Past Buyback Offers >   


4. The 2017 offer was through 'tender offer' route and promoters participated in the buyback (Table 1 above). Both the 2019 and 2021 offers were through the 'open market via stock exchange' route. Under this route, promoters cannot participate in the buyback as per capital market regulator SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) guidelines.

5. Let us see what percentage of paid-up equity shares were cancelled / extinguished through the three buyback offers in the past five years.

Table 2: Percentage of shares cancelled via buybacks > 



6. As shown in Table 2 above, the percentage of shares extinguished are 4.92, 2.53 and 1.31 through the 2017, 2019 and 2021 buyback offers respectively. In all the three offers, the company was able to cancel 8.54 percent of paid-up equity shares in total. As the number of shares were reduced, the earnings per share (EPS) got a boost with the share buybacks.

7. It's important for investors to understand the intentions of the company's management for share buyback. Investors need to ask why to use the share buyback, instead of dividends, for cash distribution to shareholders. One of the important criteria to know management's intentions is whether the promoters are participating in the buyback. (Indian tax policies have some peculiar provisions, providing tax arbitrage for buyback offers as compared to dividend payments. See this blog for more on such tax distortions.)

8. The share buybacks or repurchases are beneficial for shareholders if and only the company is buying back the shares at attractive valuations. Investors need to assess whether the buyback price is below the intrinsic value of the shares. If the company is buying back shares at higher valuations, the company is destroying shareholder value. 

(I'll be updating this blog as and when new developments take place in relation to the buyback offer) 

 

Update 13Oct2022

 

9. As scheduled, Infosys' Board of Directors met on 13Oct2022 and announced quarterly results and brief details of buyback (the announcement was made after closure of market hours). As at close of 13Oct22, the market price of its stock is Rs 1,420 per share with a market cap of Rs 597,400 crore.

10. Limited details of buyback as announced on 13Oct2022: 


11. Comparison of all four buybacks including the current one: 

 

 

Update 06Dec2022

 

12. The company today made a public announcement giving full details of the buyback proposal.

13. The maximum buyback size (which is Rs 9,300 crore) represents 14.84% and 13.31% of the company's aggregate of the total paid-up capital and free reserves on a standalone and consolidated basis respectively as of 30Sep2022.

14. As the maximum buyback size is more than 10% of the total paid-up capital and free reserves based on both standalone and consolidated financial statements, shareholder approval by way of a special resolution is required for the buyback proposal as per SEBI buyback norms. And the same was approved on 02Dec2022.

15. The buyback will start on 07Dec2022 and the last date will be earlier of 06Jun2023 (that is, six months from the date of start) or when the company fully deploys the maximum buyback size.

16. As per buyback norms, the company has already deposited  2.5% of the maximum buyback size into an Escrow Account opened for this purpose. 

17. Reasons cited by the company for buyback are:

i.) to return surplus cash to shareholders as per Capital Allocation Policy; and


ii.) to create long-term shareholder value through improvement in return on equity and earnings per share; and

18. The maximum buyback price (Rs 1,850 per share) represents:

i) Premium of 25.70% and 25.55% to the volume weighted average market price (VWAP) of the Equity Shares on BSE and NSE, respectively, during the three months period ending October 10, 2022, being the date of the intimation to the Indian Stock Exchanges regarding the proposal of buyback.


ii. Premium of 30.70% and 30.73% to the VWAP of the Equity Shares on BSE and NSE, respectively, during the two weeks period ending October 10, 2022

 
iii. Premium of 26.48% over the closing price of the Equity Shares on BSE as well as NSE as on October 10, 2022.

 

19. The indicative maximum number of Equity Shares at the Maximum Buyback Price and the Maximum Buyback Size bought back would be 502,70,270 Equity Shares (“Maximum Buyback Shares”), comprising approximately 1.19% of the total paid-up equity share capital of the Company as of September 30, 2022 (on a standalone basis).

The Company shall utilize at least 50% of the amount earmarked as the Maximum Buyback Size for the Buyback, that is, Rs 4,650 crore  (“Minimum Buyback Size”).

 

20. Company's Capital Allocation Policy: As per company's policy approved in Jul2019, the company has to return approximately 85% of the free cash flow cumulatively over a five-year period through a combination of semi-annual dividends and / or share buybacks and / or special dividends.

 

Update 14Feb2023 - Closure of Buyback

 

21. After closure of market hours on 13Feb2023, Infosys Limited announced the closure of the buyback offer. Between 07Dec2022 and 10Feb2023, the company bought back 604,26,348 equity shares at an average price of Rs 1,539.06 per share (against the maximum buyback price of Rs 1,850) -- using Rs 9,300 crore (100 percent of the maximum buyback size).



Update 15Feb2023

22. Infosys Limited today published a post-buyback public announcement with regard to the closure of the buyback.  

23. In the past five years between 2017 and now, the company was able to extinguish 9.72 percent of the net equity shares (after adjusting for addition of shares via employee stock options). Details are given in the table > 

 


As you've seen in the past four months, I had continually provided information updates on the buyback offer. With this, there will be no more blog updates on the buyback offer.

 

Update 18Mar2023

24. Even though Infosys' buyback closed and there is nothing more to write about it, I made a small analysis on the price action one month after the closure of buyback. Interestingly, the current market cap at Rs 590,480 crore is 4.1 percent below the market cap on the date the company announced (i.e., 10Oct2022) its decision to hold a board meeting for considering a buyback.

 



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References:  

2022 post-buyback announcement

2021 post-buyback announcement

2019 post-buyback announcement

2017 post-buyback announcement 


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Read more:  

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

 

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100

Global Market Data 30Sep2022 - vrk100 - 11Oct2022

Global Market Data 30Sep2022

 

 

Quarter-to-date global market data, as on 30 September 2022, of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is as follows: 

Table 1: (please click on the image to view better)

 

One notable feature of the financial markets in the past quarter has been the relentless rise of US dollar against the other major currencies. The Japanese Yen, the Euro and the British Pound have weakened considerably against the dollar, pushing the US dollar index or DXY by seven percent to 112 in the quarter.


Relatively speaking, Indian stocks outperformed other markets in the quarter, showing resilience amidst global weakness. Commodities, including crude oil, metals and agricultural commodities, have cooled off. And US 10-year Treasury yield shot up by more than 80 basis points to 3.83 percent. 



Year-to-date (past nine-month returns) global market data as on 30Sep2022 are presented below:

Table 2: (please click on the image to view better) 


YTD, Indian stocks have showed extraordinary resilience in the face of major global headwinds in the form of currency collapse, rising global bond yields, Russia's Ukraine invasion and others. 

This year will be seen as the year of the mighty US dollar. Inexplicably, both bond and stock prices have collapsed this year, especially in the US and other Western markets. The US stocks appear to be in a bear market with indices losing more than 20 percent during this year. Bitcoin (in US dollars) has lost three-fifths of its price.

The uncertainty in the financial markets is likely to continue until the major central banks stop raising interest rates aggressively.

 

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Read more:  

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Indians' Love For Cash Continues Unabated

Exit India Policy by Foreign Investors

Nifty 50 Index Quarterly Movement

Mutual Fund Asset Class Returns

Global Bond Yields and Asset Prices

Slowest Growth in India's Real Per Capita Income

Why is India Falling Behind Bangladesh?

How Rates and Ratios are Moving

Slowing Foreign Direct Investment to India

What is Cooking Behind LT Foods' Share Price Rise?

A Rundown on Prince Pipes & Fittings

Primer on Credit Rating Scales

Weblinks and Investing

-------------------

Disclosure:  I've vested interested in Indian stocks and other investments. It's safe to assume I've interest in the financial instruments / products discussed, if any.

Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is a CFA Charterholder with a vested interest in financial markets. 

CFA Charter credentials  - CFA Member Profile

CFA Badge

 

He blogs at:

https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/

https://www.scribd.com/vrk100

Twitter @vrk100