Ferns, Coastlines and the Nifty 50: Why Choppy Markets Keep Repeating 15Jun2026
(This is my 518th blog since 2010. Over the years, I have covered global financial markets, with a focus on India, and continue to share insights to help readers understand complex topics in simple language.
The views expressed here are for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice. While the author is a CFA Charterholder with nearly 25 years of experience in financial markets, this content is intended to share general insights and does not constitute financial guidance.
Please consult your financial adviser before taking any investment decision. Safe to assume the author has a vested interest in stocks / investments discussed if any.)
1 Introduction
Ferns, coastlines and the Nifty: Look closely at a fern. Each little frond has the same shape as the whole leaf. Photograph a coastline from a plane, then from the sand and the jagged outline looks much the same at both heights.
A mathematician named Benoit Mandelbrot gave these repeating self-similar shapes a name: fractals. The whole looks like its parts and the parts look like the whole. You see it in ferns, snowflakes, rivers and clouds.
Mandelbrot argued that financial markets behave in a similar way. Look at the two red boxes on the above chart (Nifty 50 index). The first runs from Oct2021 to Mar2023. The second runs from Sep2024 to Mar2026.
They are not identical, but they are strikingly alike.
Each is a stretch of choppy, big swings: a jagged climb, a sharp fall, a fresh push to new highs, then another drop. The same shape, drawn twice.
Now think of the Nifty 50 as a coastline on a map you can zoom. Zoom into the first box and you find rough bays and inlets, the big moves up and down. Slide across and zoom into the second box, and the same bays and inlets appear.
The prices differ. The character is the same. Even the sizes rhyme. In both spells the index fell by about 15 per cent, bounced back by close to 20 per cent, then fell again (see tables given under 'Additional data' at the end of the blog).
2 Backdrop
This is an update of an article titled: "The Pitfalls of Market Timing – And Why FOMO is Your Worst Financial Adviser 12Jul2025."
The earlier article comprehensively analysed the market behaviour of Oct2021-Mar2023 period and the current piece builds on that, focusing on the latest Sep2024-Mar2026 period.
Smooth and quiet days in the market do not last forever. If rough stretches keep returning, peace is just a short break. Never assume the danger is gone just because the last few days were gentle.
(article continues below)
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Related blogs:
The Pitfalls of Market Timing – And Why FOMO is Your Worst Financial Adviser 12Jul2025
Tweet thread 15Sep2020 Portfolio Rebalancing and Market Timing
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You must expect the rough market weather to always come back and prepare yourself for continued volatility. The key is to focus on your mindset rather than trying to guess the future.
There is a strange irony in how investors behave. During the Oct2021-Mar2023 choppy period, many investors assumed the choppiness would continue and resorted to heavy trading.
But they were completely caught off guard when Indian markets (represented by Nifty 50 index) experienced a spectacular one-way upmove from 17,000 levels in Mar2023 to 26,000 levels in Sep2024.
These kind of repeated, jagged patterns keep coming back in leaves, snowflakes and price charts. The secret to survival is learning to spot this repeating behavior early.
When the eventual market fall arrives, disciplined and calm investors have better chance of earning superior returns.
In Sep2020, I argued that rebalancing and market timing are different animals. Rebalancing is a calm rule you follow. Timing is a guess about the future that rarely pays.
The Jul2025 piece delved deeper into the choppy stretch of 18 months from Oct2021 to Mar2023, and the price investors paid for assuming the volatility would continue for long.
The pattern has returned, larger, and the same two lessons hold. Do not try to time the volatile markets. Meet it with your own rules and with patience.
3 The Latest 18 months: Sep2024-Mar2026
The numbers tell a plain story of motion without progress. In Sep2024, the Nifty 50 stood near 26,200. By March 2026, eighteen months on, it was around 22,300. Almost 15 per cent lower and roughly back where it had been more than a year earlier. Net-net, it moved nowhere.
But the path was anything but calm. From the Sep2024 peak, the index fell about 16 per cent into Mar2025. Then it climbed for some ten months, gaining around 19 per cent, to a fresh high near 26,300 in Jan2026. Then it fell again, about 15 per cent and settled at 22,300 in Mar2026.
One detail is worth a pause. The falls were quick; the recovery was slow. The climb from Mar2025 to Jan2026 took about ten months. The two drops took roughly five months and three months.
Fear, it seems, moves faster than patience and the sharpest fall was the most recent one. An investor who glanced only at the start and the end would shrug at a modest decline (see Additional data at the end of the blog for the data).
4 What the behavioural scientists tell us
Why are these violent movements so hard to sit through? The behavioural scientists have an answer, and it is not flattering to us.
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed that losses hurt far more than equal gains please. Losing a sum feels about twice as bad as gaining the same sum feels good. After a long rise we expect more rises. Our feelings run ahead of the facts.
That is why a long, jagged stretch is so dangerous, not to your wealth, but to your judgement. The market does not need to ruin you.
It only needs to frighten you into ruining yourself. Benjamin Graham warned, long ago, that the investor's worst enemy is usually himself.
The way through is not cleverness but discipline. Make fewer decisions, and make them in calm moments, not panicked ones. Follow a rule, such as rebalancing, so you act by plan rather than by mood. And judge yourself over years, not days.
We do not yet know how this second box ends. The leg after Mar2026 is still being written, and I will leave it for another day. From the lows of 22,300 in Mar2026, Nifty 50 has recovered, though in a choppy way, to nearly 24,000 levels now.
Nobody knows whether the market breaks higher or lower from here; but your own behaviour should serve you well. Keep your nerve, keep your rules and avoid keeping constant watch on the screen.
5 Why Markets Keep Repeating
Human nature never changes. People get greedy when things go well and panic when things go bad. New investors enter the market every day, but they still feel the exact same emotions. Because human memory is short, every big rise and fall feels completely new to the crowd.
Fear travels much faster than patience. When prices drop, people rush to sell, which forces prices to drop even lower. On the flip side, long periods of calm make people overconfident, which quietly sets up the next big crash.
Markets are constantly hit by unexpected events like wars, oil crises, tariff wars, promise of new technology, changes in interest rates and political shockwaves. The specific trigger changes every time, but the surprises never stop, forcing investors to constantly guess a changing future.
Prices move faster than human judgment. News travels in a matter of seconds, but figuring out the true value of a company takes a long time.
If you look at a market chart for a single day, a full year, or an entire decade, you will see the same zigzag outline. This is the main point about fractals: the time frame changes, but the chaotic character of the market stays exactly the same.
Check below for references and additional data.
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References:
NSE Historical index data
Tweet 03Sep2025 Nifty 50 fractal pattern
Tweet thread 12Jul2025 - The Pitfalls of Market Timing – And Why FOMO is Your Worst Financial Adviser
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Additional data:
Table 1 showing high volatility period of 18 months between Sep2024 and Mar2026 >
Table 2 showing high volatility period of 18 months between Oct2021 and Mar2023 >
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