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Friday, 29 August 2014
India's First Quarter GDP Surges-VRK100-29Aug2014
Monday, 11 August 2014
What is Liquidity Coverage Ratio?-VRK100-11Aug2014
Banks, across the globe, have to maintain liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) as part of the Basel III norms. These norms are prescribed by the Bank for International Settlements. BIS a global body that acts as a bank for central banks.
LCR =
Stock of HQLA / Total net cash outflows over the next 30 calendar days
|
Effective
|
1Jan.2015
|
1Jan.2016
|
1Jan.2017
|
1Jan.2018
|
1Jan.2019
|
Minimum LCR
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
100%
|
Total net
cash outflows over the next 30 calendar days =
|
Total expected cash outflows – Min {total
expected cash inflows; 75% of total expected cash outflows}
|
Thursday, 10 July 2014
India 2014-15 Pre-Budget Bites-VRK100-10Jul2014
Ready for the B-Day! #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Budget proposals are important, but they aren't as important as they are made out to be by market observers and media persons. #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
This time the FM is constrained by legacy issues and relatively short time of about 8 months and two weeks left in the FY. #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Whatever the FM would do in the #Budget2014, stock market is going to be disappointed w/ him. That doesn't mean you should sell your stocks!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Hope that all types of surcharges on income tax and corporation tax will be removed by the FM to ensure tax simplification. #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Where does the word 'budget' find a mention in the Constitution of India? #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
White and pink roses are smiling beautifully from this third floor balcony. Will India's FM smile on the needy sections? #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Indians don't require any finance lesson from finance ministers. No FM has motivated them to go for real estate& gold in the last one decade
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
In the last decade, Indians with investments in gold and real estate proved to be much smarter than our finance ministers.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
I'm sure #Modi govt is on the right path to infrastructure(physical) development. But development of human capital is a different ball game!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
During PV NarasimhaRao's rule (1991-96), all the economic reforms were done in the first two years. Later, PVNR developed cold feet. 1/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Whatever reforms the FM wants to implement must be executed in the first two years of his tenure before ennui catches up with him. 2/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
One nation. One tax.
One nation. One law.
One nation. One phone.
One nation. Many aspirations.
One nation. Many languages.
#UnityInDiversity
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Ahead of the Indian budget, right from the textiles, gems/jewellery, automobiles to shipping, every industry is lobbying for alms/sops. 1/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
The only people who are not asking/crying for any incentives or alms from the finance minister are the poor and the underprivileged. 2/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
India is a vast country with diverse populations and interests. Some of them are bound to be disappointed by what the new FM brings to them.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
As far as stocks are concerned, Union budget is usually relevant for a few days--maximum three days. Afterwards, it's business as usual!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
But this time it could be different as expectations about the @narendramodi gov't are extremely high! No doubt some reforms will be done!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
To what extent market's/people's expectations will be satisfied by the FM is anybody's guess. But, the long-term trend is intact in my view.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Hope during the FM's budget speech, there won't be any power supply disruptions in #Hyderabad, which is still reeling under them.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Key areas for stock market:
Expenditure reform
Fiscal deficit
FDI in insurance/defence, etc
GST/DTC rollout
Tax reform
Reviving GDP growth
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Key areas for stock market:
Reviving financial savings
Stimulating investments
Treating foreign investors
Allocations to social sector
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Key areas for stock market:
Managing NPAs in PSBs
Reviving market economy
Human/physical infra development
Further rejuvenating exports
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Since the Britsh rule & till 1998, budgets were presented in Parliament at 5 pm (to suit London timings) on the last working day of Feb. 1/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
This practice was changed by fmr FM YashwantSinha in 1999. Since then, budgets are presented in Parliament at 11 am to suit our timings! 2/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Budget is printed in the basement of North Block. Officials preparing & printing budget are locked inside many days before the budget day!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
These officials have to remain in the basement and they can't come out. They've to eat & sleep there only. Maximum security with no phones!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
But fmr FM Yashwant Sinha feels so much secrecy surrounding the budget is unnecessary. He says budget making process should be transparent.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
The word 'budget' isn't there in the Indian Constitution--it talks about an 'annual financial statement' of receipts/expenditures. @vrk100
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Matters relating to budget presentation (estimates of receipts/expenditures) are set out in Articles 112 to 116 of the Indian Constitution.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Article 113: Expenditure charged from the Consolidated Fund of India shall not be submitted to the vote of Parliament--but it may discuss it
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Post-budget, if some economists are giving a score of 95/100...or even 100/100 for the budget, they are only 'economical with the truth.'
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
A decade back, I used to take holidays from work to watch the budget presentation onTV. But my enthusiasm has considerably watered down now!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Rajya Sabha has limited powers in financial matters. Can hold discussions on the appropriation & finance bills, but it doesn't pass them 1/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Rajya Sabha can only return finance bills to the Lok Sabha. RS doesn't have powers to make amendments to finance bills. 2/2 #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Even if the Rajya Sabha fails to return a finance bill, its nod will be presumed after 15 days of the passage of the bill in the Lok Sabha.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Former FM Yashwant Sinha's book, "Confessions of a Swadeshi Reformer," has some good insights on budget making and presentation. #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 10, 2014
Wednesday, 9 July 2014
India's Economic Survey and Household Savings-VRK100-09Jul2014
Good that the @narendramodi gov't is making all the noises about fiscal consolidation, which is quite necessary after years of profligacy.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Hope #Modi govt will stick to the path of fiscal consolidation for the first two years before they go on spending binge before 2019elections
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Hope the primacy given to public sector will be removed. But it would be delusional to think that #Modi gov't will sell off PSUs summarily!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Wish rich and fertile farmers' agri-income is taxed. But no right-thinking person would assume it would be touched in this #Budget2014.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
One of the most vital areas to enhance productivity gains and GDP growth is education and re-skilling. Hope #Budget2014 focuses on it!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Sadly a majority of our subsidies go into the pockets of the privileged classes at the cost of the underdogs. Will #Budget2014 reverse this?
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Massive reforms in both direct and indirect taxes are required to boost India's GDP growth and uplift vast sections of society. #Budget2014
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Priorities for the #Modi gov't (PDF): http://t.co/Wly0hCaGE0 #EconomicSurvey May take about an hour to read this.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Infrastructure credit as a % of total bank credit in India:
2004: 4.4%
2007: 7.4%
2010: 11.7%
2013: 13.9%
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Indian Rupee-US Dollar Volatility:
May 2003: 1.84%
March 2007: 3.87%
March 2014: 8.65%
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Gross Domestic Savings as a % of GDP at current market prices:
1950-51: 9.5
1960-61: 11.6
1970-71: 14.3
1980-81: 17.8
1990-91: 22.9
1/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
India Domestic Savings as a % of GDP at current market prices:
2000-01: 23.7
2003-04: 29.0
2007-08: 36.8
2010-11: 33.7
2012-13: 30.1
2/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
India Gross Fixed Capital Formation as a % of GDP:
1950-51: 9.3
1960-61: 12.8
1970-71: 13.6
1980-81: 17.9
1990-91: 23.8
1/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
India Gross Fixed Capital Formation as a % of GDP:
2000-01: 22.7
2003-04: 24.5
2007-08: 32.9
2010-11: 30.9
2012-13: 30.4
2/2
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
India's domestic savings & gross fixed capital formation reached a peak, in 2007-08, of 36.8% & 32.9% of GDP respectively. (Previous tweets)
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
The decline of savings/investment started with P.Chidambaram's 2008-09 awful budget (farm loan waivers, 6th Pay Commn) & continued till now.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
It's an irony Indians invest their savings in real estate/gold, with no deposits in banks, but expect the gov't to spend on infrastructure!
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Where will money the come from if Indians invest all in RE/gold? They can't be fully blamed for this. Their strategy worked till last year.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Their investments in gold/real estate worked very well for 10 years till 2013. Dejected with inflation, they took asylum in physical assets.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
"Dividend distribution tax (DDT) need to go" Para 2.59/page 40 (PDF) http://t.co/Wly0hCaGE0 Will dividend be included as ord inc? @VetriSmv
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
#EconomicSurvey talks of establishing a Productivity Commission to review laws/regulations & organisation structures & improve productivity.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
India's budget should follow accrual-based accounting process rather than the currently-used cash-based system. #EconomicSurvey
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Due to the distorted urea subsidy, farmers & the Indian gov't are wastefully spending Rs 2,680 crore & Rs 5,860 crore respectively for this.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
With zero outcomes, public schools mostly exist for the benefit of ineffective & truant school teachers/staff, rather than for students.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
In recent years, while the spending per child in gov't schools has risen sharply, the learning outcome has declined to 32.4% #EconomicSurvey
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
#FinancialRepression With mandatory/prudential norms (eg, statutory liquidity ratio) India's Union/State govts are pre-empting all resources
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
With #FinancialRepression, Union/State govts are crowding out private sector, which is forced to borrow from abroad entailing forex risks.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Greater policy stability, higher long-term growth & a legal/regulatory framework that strengthens a mkt economy will help revive investment
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
The first wave of infrastructure investment in India has been grounded in an array of design flaws that now need to be addressed.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
GDP growth has slowed due to domestic & external factors. Two successive years of sub-5% growth is witnessed for the first time in 25 years.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
India’s share in world exports & imports increased from 0.7% & 0.8% respectively in 2000 to 1.7% and 2.5% respectively in 2013.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
There has also been marked improvement in India’s total merchandise trade to GDP ratio from 21.8% in 2000-01 to 44.1% in 2013-14.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Yield levels in Indian agriculture are still much lower than global standards. No significant changes in rice & wheat yields after the 1980s
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
While cotton yields have shown big leap over the last decade largely due to Bt cotton; some increase is also seen in coarse cereals & pulses
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Till 7 May 2014, a total of 67.41 lakh members have been enrolled under the National Pension System (NPS) with a corpus of Rs 51,147 crore.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
During 2004-05 to 2011-12, employment growth (CAGR) was only 0.5%; compared to 2.8% during 1999-2000 to 2004-05. #EconomicSurvey
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
#India Coal Output (million tonnes)
1998-99: 292
2003-04: 361
2008-09: 493
2009-10: 532
2010-11: 533
2011-12: 540
2012-13: 556
2013-14: 566
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
As can be seen in the previous tweet, India's coal production has stagnated between 2009 and 2014 creating problems for power cos & economy.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
The data provided in the previous tweets is sourced from India's #EconomicSurvey 2013-14.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) July 9, 2014
Tuesday, 24 June 2014
Opinion on ITC Limited-VRK100-24Jun2014
Opinion on the stock of ITC Limited through tweets
Uncertainty stares at your face in all walks of life,more so when you're dealing with your investments. It's better you deal with it head on
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 23, 2014
The CMP of ITC stock is Rs 314, after falling by 6.5% yesterday, on speculation that Union govt might impose heavy taxes on cigarettes.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 23, 2014
The talk of higher taxes is a familiar theme surrounding the cigarette stocks ahead of the India's Union Budget every year.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 23, 2014
At Rs 314, ITC may offer good entry point for serious and long term investors who are able to deal with the uncertainty of higher taxes.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 23, 2014
No doubt, ITC depends on cigarette division for a large chunk of its profits. Imposition of higher taxes might lead to price fall in future.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
ITC is the largest player among cigarette makers. Cigarette business in India has strong entry barriers--that is, competition is limited.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
ITC's other divisions, especially paper and hotel business aren't doing very well after the global financial crisis & weak Indian economy.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
ITC is a defensive stock & it works as a cushion in one's portfolio against global shocks (esp from crude oil) and domestic uncertainties.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
As we've seen in the latest Iraq crisis, financial markets are highly vulnerable to global events. So better to have some safe stocks always
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
Don't be too much worried about uncertainty--learn to live with it. More often, our own behavior is more important than market behavior.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
Uncertainty is a fact of life. If you're looking for PERFECT CERTAINTY while making decisions, you're living in a fool's paradise.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
There is a chance that market's knowledge is better than that of an individual investor. But we shouldn't be afraid of making decisions.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
Till the other day, stocks of public sector banks, metal sector, capital goods.., were untouchables. In just a few months, sentiment turned.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
Three important things in equity investments are:
Fundamentals,
Liquidity, and
Sentiment. Not necessarily in that order.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
In Indian stock market, liquidity & investor sentiment are strong currently. There's is higher probability strong fundamentals will follow.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
It's safe to assume that I've a vested interest in the stocks I discuss here. I'm just sharing some thoughts--don't construe them as advice.
— RamaKrishnaVadlamudi (@vrk100) June 24, 2014
Sunday, 22 June 2014
Measures to Analyse Country Risk-VRK100-22Jun2014
Measures to Analyse Country Risk
Disclosure: I've vested interested in Indian stocks. It's safe to assume I've interest in the stocks discussed, if any.
Disclaimer: The analysis and opinion provided here are only for information purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisers before making any investments. The author is an investment professional with a vested interest in financial markets. He blogs at:
https://ramakrishnavadlamudi.blogspot.com/