Market Outlook
Rama Krishna Vadlamudi, HYDERABAD 01 August 2011
In its latest review of the monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates by 50 basis points against the consensus market estimate of 25 basis points. The reverse repo rate is increased to 7.0 per cent and the Marginal Standing Facility rate is hiked to 9.0 per cent. The unexpected 50-basis point hike has caught the stock and bond markets unawares and both the bond prices and stock prices have reacted negatively to the news. The corporate quarterly results continue to be mixed with several large- and mid-cap companies declaring their results. However, stock market has been punishing companies not only with poor performance but also with average performance. Public Sector Banks have been reporting a substantial jump in loan provisions due to rising non-performing assets.
RBI’s Monetary Policy-from baby steps to dinosaur steps
Following an aggressive move by Reserve Bank of India to increase its Repo rate by 50 basis points (under its liquidity adjustment facility or LAF) from 7.5 per cent to 8.0 per cent with effect from 26 July 2010, many banks like, Punjab National Bank, IDBI Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Bank of India, DCB, Yes Bank, Corporation Bank, and Bank of Baroda, have raised their base rates by 40 basis points (100 basis points = one per cent) to 75 basis points. This is likely to push up interest rates of corporate loans, housing loans and auto loans.
RBI started raising interest rates since February 2010 gradually with 25 basis points raise each time which was described as ‘baby steps’ by RBI itself. But in a matter of just under three months, RBI has raised the Repo rate by 125 basis points signifying a change to a hawkish monetary policy stance. Clearly, RBI is worried about inflation and wants to control the stubborn inflation with stern measures.
First Quarter results
BHEL has recorded a 22 per cent rise in net profit for the first quarter aided by surge in other income. Its order book decreased to Rs 1,59,600 crore as on 30 June 2011.
RIL has posted an increase of 17 per cent in net profit aided by higher refining margins and other income. Sales growth for the quarter was 39 per cent.
Maruti Suzuki’s net profit has gone up by 18 per cent mainly due to higher other income, while sales were up by a mere 3 per cent.
ICICI Bank’s first quarter net profit surged by 30 per cent due to lesser loan provisions following improved asset quality.
Andhra Bank has recorded an increase of 21 per cent in net profit while that of Corporation Bank was a mere five per cent.
Syndicate Bank has recorded a 29-per cent jump in net profit due to surge in other income.
Grasim Industries reported a surge in net profit by over 30 per cent due to improved realizations from VSF and cement businesses.
Hindustan Unilever has posted good results with a rise in net profit of 18 per cent in the first quarter helped by volume growth, cut in advertisement cost and better product mix.
Punjab National Bank has shown a mere 3 per cent increase in net profit due to aggressive loan provisioning, though it managed to keep the net interest margin at 3.84%.
Bank of Baroda has posted decent numbers with a rise of 20% in net profit aided by interest income and fee income. Compared to other public sector banks, BOB’s loan book is of superior quality.
Canara Bank’s net profit was down by 28 per cent due to sharp rise in loan provisions and steep decline in treasury profits.
UltraTech Cement has reported a rise of 22% in its quarterly net profit.
ITC’s net profit has grown by 25 per cent while sales growth was 20 per cent.
Land Acquisition Bill
Government of India has come out with a draft Land Acquisition Bill which aims to provide better market values to land owners and to safeguard the livelihoods of the project-affected people. The salient features of the Bill are:
Government will not acquire land for private companies
In urban areas, land owners will get a minimum compensation of twice the market value
In rural areas, land owners will get a minimum compensation of six times the market value
A comprehensive rehabilitation package for land owners and the landless people affected by the project
The Bill will enjoy primacy over specialized legislations
Karnataka Lokayukta Report
Karnataka state ombudsman Mr Santosh Hege has named several firms, like, JSW Steel, Adani Enterprises, NMDC and Sesa Goa to be involved in illegal mining of iron ore in Bellary district of Karnataka between 2006 and 2010. The share prices of these companies have crashed after the report made public. The report estimated a loss, in taxes and royalty, of Rs 16,085 crore to the Karnataka Government. Following the report, the Supreme Court has suspended iron ore mining in Bellary district.
SEBI takeover code
On 29 July 2011, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has raised the threshold limit for open offer to 25 per cent from the existing 15 per cent. The capital market regulator, SEBI, has also decided to increase the open offer size to 26 per cent from the present 20 per cent. What this means is, from now onwards, companies in India can acquire shares worth up to 25 per cent of the target company’s paid-up capital without triggering any open offer. Once this 25 per cent threshold limit is reached, the acquiring company has to come out with an open offer to acquire another 26 per cent stake in the target company. SEBI has done away with the provision of non-compete fee. Till now, an acquirer was allowed to pay non-compete fee on takeover.
Debt pangs continue for the United States
The deadlock about raising the $14.3-trillion US debt level continues between the US president and the Congress. If no consensus is reached between the warring parties, the US Treasury Department will run out of money to pay its bills on August 2nd. The Republican Party seems to be blackmailing the US president about debt reduction. Rating agencies have threatened to downgrade US’ AAA-rating if the US lawmakers fail to reach an accord. However, rating agencies may still downgrade the US rating due to the fact that fiscal deficit is a long-term problem. The new managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has warned that the US debt default/shock will have huge repercussions not only for the US but also for the rest of the world.
The huge US fiscal deficit is a big problem for other countries which hold their foreign exchange reserves in US government debt. Some of the biggest holders of the US debt are: (in USD billion) China - 1,160; Japan – 907; the UK – 333; and Brazil – 190. Other investors in the US government debt are banks, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and individual investors.
The outlook
Sensex ended down at 18,197 for the last week and Nifty was down at 5,482. As I am writing this, the flash news is that an agreement has been reached in the US to reduce government debt. This will be a big relief for the markets around the world. However, in the medium to long term, markets will be guided by what is happening in the US and their decisions on the deficit-cut will be closely tracked. For over 10 years, the US has been living beyond its means. Between 2001 and 2011, the government debt has almost trebled from $ 5.8 trillion in 2001 to $ 14.3 trillion in 2011 (one trillion is equal to one lakh crores).
With Indian Parliament opening its monsoon session today, the market will be watching the progress of several pending bills which will have huge consequences economically and socially. The market will be watching the quarterly results also.
Snippets
State Bank of India Commercial and International (SBICI) Limited was merged with State Bank of India effective 29 July 2011.
The US gross domestic product has increased by 1.3 per cent annual rate during the second quarter (April to June 2011). The growth rate of 1.3 per cent is much below the expected rate of 1.8 per cent due to weak consumer spending. The US economy contracted at an annual average rate of 0.3 per cent between 2007 and 2010 as per the latest estimates.
SEBI, the capital market regulator, has reintroduced entry load for mutual funds. Existing investors have to pay an entry load of Rs 100 per transaction. New investors have to pay Rs 150 per transaction. However, investments up to Rs 10,000 will not attract any entry load.
SEBI has proposed to allow setting up of KYC Registration Agencies, which will enable mutual fund investors to have a single and uniform KYC (know your customer) procedure across the securities market.
Mogul Resources Limited is coming out with an initial public offer of 7.5 million Australian dollars with a listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in October. The company is exploring for copper, gold and other metals in Rajasthan, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Anshu Jain has been named as co-chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank Group along with Juergen Fitschen. They will take over from the current CEO, Josef Ackermann, next year.
Moody’s has cut Greece’s credit rating by three notches.
Quote of the week
“If you hold your currency perennially depreciated, it amounts to giving away goods for free. That is good news for everybody except the person giving it away thus. The right policy is to sell cheap for a while to get people used to your product and then raise the price and reap the benefit of the habit of buying your goods that you have inculcated in people.” – Kaushik Basu, chief economic advisor, on being asked whether it is a good idea for China to let its currency, Yuan, appreciate now.
Disclaimer: The author’s views are personal. The author has a vested interest in the stock markets. Before taking investment/trading decisions, consult your personal certified financial planner/adviser.
About the Author: Passionate about financial markets. Watches equity, bond and currency markets from a macro point of view. Loves writing articles on financial markets. So far, has written more than 120 articles running into about 720 pages of original content, which have attracted more than 165,000 readers on SCRIBD. www.scribd.com/vrk100
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