Saturday, 28 September 2013

Five Golden Rules for Equity Investors



Five Golden Principles for Investors

Following these five golden principles will keep you ahead of the stock markets:

1).  Margin of Safety: The concept of margin of safety is the most important of Benjamin Graham’s investment principles. He argued that we should never overpay for our investments because our estimate of future cash flows of an investment could be wrong. As such, we require some protection, cushion or margin for our errors of estimation and judgment – so that the chances of getting satisfactory returns are brighter. 

2).  Understanding the Asset: Do your own research by spending your time on understanding the asset. For example, before investing in a stock or equity share of a company, learn about how the company earns its profits and revenues. Who are its competitors and how the company is tackling the competitive pressures? What is the quality of the management, its cash flow, profit and loss account and balance sheet? These fundamentals will keep you in good stead before you put a price on the stock.

3).  Play Your Own Game: A fair knowledge of how financial markets operate is a necessary pre-requisite before you plunge into the investment world. Markets consist of millions of investors, speculators and traders. You have to play your own game to succeed against millions of others. Never follow the crowds. Mind you there will always be a few crooks ready to decamp with your money if you are not alert to their machinations.

4).  Know Your Risk Appetite: Suppose you have invested $50,000 in a commodity hoping to get a return of 30 per cent in two years. Do you have the stomach to tolerate if the commodity’s price falls by 20 per cent or 25 per cent within a year, which is very common? If you require some cash urgently, are you prepared to sell this asset at a steep discount to your acquisition price? These questions will help you in understanding your own risk appetite.

5).  Too Much Leverage is Dangerous: The collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) brought into focus the perils of over-leverage. LTCM, founded inter alia by two Nobel-laureates Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, had built up huge positions to the tune of $ 1,250 billions in financial derivatives market taking on leverage of about 35 times of its own funds. It collapsed in 1998 following Russia’s default causing severe turbulence in markets. An individual or institutional investor is likely to face a similar rout if they depend on excessive debt.



Related: Understanding Asset Allocation 14Oct2012



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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100
  

Friday, 27 September 2013

Decoding US Government Shutdown-VRK100-27Sep2013





What is US Government Shutdown?

A US government shutdown is the inability of the US federal government to provide public services, to meet its debt obligations and to run various government departments smoothly. The US government is facing a possible shutdown by 1st October technically. But the real shutdown may take place after 17th October as indicated by the US treasury secretary Jacob Lew. The full faith and credit of the US government would be in peril.

The US federal government needs money to meet its obligations—such as social security benefits, military salaries, interest and principal payments, tax refunds and others. The money is made available through the budget approved by the US Congress—consisting of Senate and House of Representatives. If funds are not available, the government comes to a grinding halt. So, why is the US in such a mess?

Reasons behind the fund crunch:

The reasons are both political and economic. The Republican and Democratic party members are sparring in the US Congress over increasing the federal government’s debt ceiling. The Republicans want president Barack Obama to postpone his Obamacare by one year and some legislative action on tax and environment matters. Obamacare, which is effective 1st October, is shortened form of Affordable Care Act. It provides health care benefits to US citizens. The Republican proposals are shot down by the Democrats and the president; and the standoff continues at present. With majority members belonging to Republican party, the House of Representatives is controlled by it. But the Senate is controlled by the Democrats.

In fact, the acrimony between the two parties has been going on for the past three years. In 2011, the US government almost came to a standstill, but was averted at the last minute. Under president Bill Clinton’s regime, the US government experienced shutdown intermittently for about four weeks between November 1995 and January 1996.

For more than two decades, the US has been living beyond its means. It has been unable to balance its budgets—with expenditure being more than its revenues. The US consumption has been a boon to exporting countries, such as, China, Japan and Germany. In turn, several non-US countries invest in US Treasury securities, helping bridge the US budget deficits for a long time. But in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, the tepid US economic growth has further worsened the US budget deficits. 

What is debt ceiling?

Debt ceiling is the total amount of money the US federal government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal commitments. The US Congress is in the habit of raising debt limits regularly. In fact, the ceiling has been raised 78 times since 1960. In the following weeks, Congress leaders of both parties have to agree to raise the debt ceiling and make it into law, failing which the US government has to shut down.  

 The US deficit cannot go beyond the debt ceiling approved earlier by the US Congress. The US federal government has to spend within the debt ceiling set by the US Congress. The money is needed to pay nation’s expenses and borrowings. Before 1st October, there has to be an agreement in the US Congress between the two parties.

The current federal borrowing limit is $16.7 trillion—the total public debt outstanding has already reached this limit. The Republicans are refusing to enhance this limit, resulting in the current deadlock on Capitol Hill. Five years back, the total outstanding debt was $10 trillion, which has gone up by a whopping 67 percent in the last five years!

What is the impact?

Public services will be adversely impacted if the government shuts down. Parks and museums would be closed. No passports would be issued as passport offices would be closed. Many other non-essential public services too would be closed. But postal workers and food inspectors would work. Social security benefits, such as unemployment benefits and old-age/insurance benefits, too will continue to be paid as usual. Borrowing costs for the federal government would go up. Home values of the Americans would fall.

The possible shutdown may lead to a financial crisis threatening jobs and savings in the US. This may jeopardize US economic growth in particular and world growth in general. Failing to increase the debt limit would result in unimaginable consequences. Not paying debt obligations amounts to US default and this has not happened in recent history (Detroit city in the US filed for bankruptcy in July this year).

Financial markets seem to have ignored the shutdown impact for the time being. They may be basking in the positive news of the US Fed deferring its tapering decision. The markets would soon realize the ripple effects of the shutdown and may react violently depending on the outcomes from the US Congress.

What is the way-out?

There are some proposals on table, such as bringing a temporary funding bill and prioritizing the payment of obligations. At the time of writing this post, the discord over the budget remains. It is hoped better sense would prevail between the sparring parties. Nobody is sure how the impasse can be resolved in the next few days, if not weeks.  

To Sum Up:

If the shutdown is only for a few days, the impact may not be material. But if it is prolonged it will have huge negative effects, not only on the US economy but also across global financial markets, which are basically US-centric.

The US has been unable to balance its budget, but the world is still willing to pour money into the US thinking that the country would never default. Rampant government borrowing has resulted in an ocean of debt for the US.

Investors such as Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are highly critical of the US government’s efforts to flood the world with US dollars or fiat money. They have been arguing that the US has to implode at some point of time. The ongoing bitter fight on Capitol Hill has damaged the credibility of the US in the eyes of the world and if better sense does not prevail on the US lawmakers, it will lead to some tectonic movements across the globe. Investors are to brace themselves for increased volatility in the markets in the next one month until a settlement is in sight.


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Picture: Capital Hill Building. Washington DC. Courtesy: www.aoc.gov

Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100

Thursday, 26 September 2013

How to Choose Insurance Wisely?-VRK100-26Sep2013




Dear all,

The other day, on a sweltering afternoon, I was ambling through the crowded markets of Dadar West in Central Bombay, which offers all kinds of merchandise to people from all walks of life; irrespective of their income levels. You can buy just about anything from these bustling bazaars which offer a variety of products and services, right from provisions, fresh vegetables, fruits, meat/fish, jewellery, watches, eatables, photography, eateries, electrical goods, domestic appliances, furniture, to ready-made garments and so on. You can get some great bargains also here. The interesting thing about Dadar West market is that it is suitable for consumers with all kinds of budgets.

As I was jaywalking through the pavements, amidst jostling crowds, literally rubbing shoulders cheek-by-jowl with other shoppers, I found some plastic sheets in various hues strewn all over the sidewalk. Looking at them closely, I gathered that the sheets were covers for several gadgets, like, refrigerators, washing machines, television sets, mixers, grinders, etc. We Indians have a particular liking to cover each and every gadget, thing or appliance with a cover, be it plastic or cloth. We buy covers for our suitcases and for our mobile phone handsets, cars, two-wheelers, etc. Car owners, including those of C and D-segment cars, never remove the plastic covers from their seats in their cars, even two or three years after buying it! No doubt, living in a tropical country nearer to the Equator with the Sun beating down vertically, we need to protect our goods from heat and dust. May be, it is a curious case of Indians overdoing it. In some houses, I’ve have seen ladies protecting their Godrej wardrobes/almirahs too with covers!

But when it comes to basic covers that are very vital in our lives, we seem be utterly unaware of the consequences of not having those important covers. One typical case is the bravado exhibited by motorcyclists on our bumpy roads without wearing any crash helmet. And then there is this most vital cover, that is, insurance cover – insurance cover for the lives of earning members of the family. Of course, we don’t do any insurance for our household articles also, that’s a different issue altogether.

Here is an engaging conversation one had in a local train with a young man in his mid-30s:


HP: “Hi, Vishal, how’re you?”

Vishal: “Fine, and what about you and where are you coming from?’

“Fine, thank you, Vishal. I’m just coming from Nariman Point after attending a seminar on life insurance there.”

 “Okay, how was the seminar?”

It was good. How is life and what about your folks?”

“Life is good and my family are also doing well.”

“Okay. By the way, how much insurance cover do you have?”

“(rolling his eyes) Mmm…I pay some thing like Rs 65,000 to Rs 70,000 for my insurance policies every year.”

I’m not asking you about the insurance premium you’re paying, what I want to know is what is the total sum assured of your policies.”

“(after scratching his head for a few minutes…) I think I’ve got four polices – money back and ULIPs – and total sum assured is around Rs 3 lakh.”

You’re paying a premium of Rs 70,000 for a total cover of Rs 3 lakh!”

“Yes, HP, that is right.”

Vishal, do you think the amount of insurance, that is Rs 3 lakh, is enough for a man like you working for a good company in Bombay?”
“I’m getting good income tax deduction for the premia I pay every year and I get good sums regularly from my money-back policies.”

It’s correct that you get IT deduction, but the total insurance cover may not be sufficient for your insurance needs.”

(silence for some time)

As you’re working for a good company, I suppose your annual salary will be around Rs 4 lakh, right?”

“Yes, it comes to around Rs 4.5 lakh.”

Your annual income is Rs 4.5 lakh, but your insurance cover is only Rs 3 lakh. Do you think it’s enough to protect your family members if anything happens to you?”

“(making some murmurings and feeling sweaty in local train where we’re packed like sardines, he finally admitted) I don’t know, you tell me how much insurance I need.”

It depends on several factors – like your age, annual income, family obligations and needs, liabilities, dependent parents/siblings, future inflation, future needs, medical history, and others. But since your family obligations are limited and you don’t have big liabilities, I can tell you one thumb rule, Vishal.”

“What’s that?”

In general, an earning member of a family requires a life insurance cover of about 10 to 12 times his/her annual income. This is only a ballpark amount. If one is having a house loan of, say Rs 15 lakhs, one’s insurance need will go up by that amount since he/she can’t afford to pass on their loan liability to other family members.”

“(shocked with disbelief) Ten to 12 times, that’s too much insurance!”

Yes, it’s true. Why I tell 10 to 12 times is: Suppose a person with an annual income of Rs 5 lakh insures for, say, Rs 60 lakhs. If the person dies, the family will get that Rs 60 lakh sum assured from the insurance company and they can earn an annual interest of around Rs 4.80 lakh at an average of 8 per cent return. And that money will be sufficient for making a decent living for the surviving members of the family.”

“I can’t afford to pay so much amount of premium.”

I think you can definitely afford it, provided you opt for the cheapest insurance policy.”

“What’s that?”

It’s pure term insurance policy offered by several good insurance companies in India with the lowest premium. Pure term insurance policy is basically bought for protecting your loved ones.” 

“What would be the premium of that policy for my age?”

For a 35-year old male with normal health, for a term insurance of Rs 60-lakh sum assured and for a term of 25 years, the annual premium will be around Rs 20,000 – the cheapest from an insurance company among more than 20 insurers in India. The most expensive one will be Rs 33,000 per annum from a big insurer.”

“(raising eyebrows with excitement) Is that only Rs 20,000? But, I’m paying Rs 70,000 premium for only Rs 3 lakh sum assured, why is that?”

Because, there is lot of mis-selling. All  your policies are money-back and ULIPs and their premia are very high. Insurance agents usually sell policies that fetch them highest commissions. In case of ULIPs, agents get up to 40 per cent of the annual premium as commission in the first year itself. While buying, you ask your agent the amount of commission she gets from your policy.”

“(looking perplexed) Forty per cent commission, is it true?”

Yes, it’s correct. You’ve to compare various life insurance companies’ policies before opting for a specific policy. Pure term insurance plans are the cheapest and recently their premium rates have come down substantially due to reduction in solvency margin by the insurance regulator.

“In fact, IRDA, the insurance regulator, has permitted the insurance companies to sell insurance policies online at lower premium and a few insurers have started selling term insurance policies online – with the premium being one of the lowest.”

“Is it really, can I buy term insurance policies online?”

“Yes, you can, of course. But, it’s always better to consult your certified financial advisor unless you are an expert on insurance matters. After that, you can take a decision depending on your individual needs and can buy that policy online.”

“By the way, what’s the return I get from this pure term insurance policy?”

“Nothing!”

“(utterly shocked) I don’t get any return?”

No, you don’t get any return from the term insurance policy if you survive the policy term. It’s similar to your car insurance. You just pay and forget. Only if anything untoward happens to the insured, his/her family will get the full sum assured.”

“(shaking his head vertically and horizontally) Mmm…Why I should invest in this term insurance if I don’t get any return?”

Good question, Vishal. Insurance is separate and investment is separate. Don’t club them together. As I told you earlier, for a total cover of Rs 60 lakhs, you pay a premium of only Rs 20,000 per annum.

“But, if you opt for an endowment, money-back or a whole-life policy or ULIPs, you’ve to pay something like, Rs 2 lakh to Rs 5 lakh premium annually, which is more than your annual income!”

“(shrugging off his shoulders) I need to get some returns on my investment, nah?”

Basically, you need to keep insurance and investment separate. First, buy term insurance very cheaply and the remaining amount you can invest in high-yielding equity mutual funds which are likely to fetch you a return of up to 12 to 14 per cent over long-term.”

“Are returns from equity MFs guaranteed?”

No, they’re not. Going by their track record in the last 15 years in India, I’m telling you this. But, if you are risk averse, you can still invest the amount in a PPF account or other safe/guranteed instrument, which may fetch you returns between 8 and 11 per cent depending on your tax bracket.”

“Okay, HP, can you tell me some good policy for my child.”

You mean child insurance? Why does your child need insurance?”

“(not knowing what to answer) Huhhh…so many policies are being offered… I’ve seen several ads on billboards, TV and in newspapers.”

“Well, life insurance needs to be done on behalf of the breadwinner in the family – the insurance cover should be for the life of the breadwinner and not for the child. So that, if anything happens to the earning parent, the child get protected and receives the sum assured.”

“I will require money when my child goes for higher education.”

I entirely agree with you, you need money for your child’s higher education. After taking adequate basic pure term insurance covering your life, as I told you about 10 to 12 times of your annual income; you can consider a child insurance plan provided your savings permit you to buy that child insurance plans.”

“There are some child plans available in the market that cover the life of the child.”

Yes, there are. That doesn’t mean you buy them. The parent does not incur any financial loss, so it’s not necessary to take policies that cover the life of the child.”

“But, how do I ensure that I save some money for my child’s higher education or, say, marriage?”

As I told you, first take pure term insurance covering your life; then you can opt for some money-back or endowment child insurance plans that protect the life of the earning parent, but not the child. Or, you can opt for a combination of pure term insurance and equity mutual funds with long-term regular investments.”

“Which life insurance companies are offering child insurance plans?”

Almost all the life insurers in India are offering these policies. You can consult your certified insurance advisor, she can suggest you good policies depending on your individual specific needs. But, one thing I can tell you please don’t buy ULIPs, as they are highly expensive, non-transparent and you end up paying hefty commission to agents.”

“Thank you, very much, HP!”

Thank you, Vishal. ”

As the local train reached Bandra station, I got off from it and strutted off toward my downtown BKC residence taking on the nice skywalks built recently by the local authorities for pedestrians.

 Picture courtesy: Google

Note: This is a repost of what I posted earlier in December 2009, but it's still relevant.

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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Saturday, 21 September 2013

RBI's Messy Monetary Policy


Reserve Bank of India on 20 September 2013 announced its monetary policy review, listing out various measures and reasons behind them.

But RBI seems to be in a lot of confusion. In the last two years, the monetary policy has been completely botched, to say the least. I was writing my thoughts on the RBI's latest policy announcements. But in between, I've come across this brilliant piece.

Dr Ajay Shah has written a fabulous article on the RBI's wavering messy policies:

Please read the same at:


I share similar views as expressed by Dr Ajay Shah.



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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. These are his personal views. He blogs at:




Connect with him on twitter @vrk100


Thursday, 19 September 2013

US Fed Tapering Is Postponed-VRK100-19Sep2013



A word of appreciation for this post from Bibek Debroy, a renowned economist.



Summary:

The US Federal Reserve on 18 September 2013, at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), decided to postpone its much talked-about tapering for the time being. This means the US Fed is maintaining its status quo of buying bonds worth $85 billion per month. It’s not clear when the Fed will start its tapering. With this flip-flop, the US Fed has made it difficult to predict when it will gradually reduce its bond buying program. Due to the moderate economic growth, low labor participation and recent rise in mortgage rates, the Fed has decided to postpone the tapering decision. With this decision, the US dollar is down, gold price is up, and stock markets too have cheered the Fed decision.

What is Fed Tapering?

Before we move further, let us see what is meant by Fed tapering. Tapering means to reduce gradually. In May this year, the Fed had hinted that it would decrease its monthly bond buying program (See more on QE3 at this end of this post) at a measured pace. At that time it was perceived that the tapering would start in September this year and would end by the middle of 2014. The markets had taken this news of US Fed tapering very negatively. Even though attempts were made to assuage the markets subsequently, the market perception did not change. The US Fed, the IMF and the ECB tried to calm the nerves of financial markets, by saying that they’d continue with their easy money policies as long as their economies remain weak.

This Fed’ hint of tapering its bond buying created a flutter in the financial markets. The yield of US 10-year Treasury increased from 1.6% in May 2013 to 3% in early September 2013. There was huge sell-off in securities, both shares and bonds, in the EMs resulting in huge outflow of money from EMs back to the developed markets. Against the US dollar, currencies in the EMs have depreciated very sharply—ranging from eight to 12 per cent.

Why the Fed postponed the tapering?

As clarified by the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke there are three main reasons for its decision to continue with its bond buying and postpone the tapering:

1. Labor force participation rate has declined—partly reflecting potential workers getting discouraged. Though the unemployment has fallen to 7.3 per cent, the fall is substantially due to people leaving the labor force.

2. There is a tussle in the US congress over passing of a bill to keep the government funded (if there is no agreement between the Republicans and the Democrats, it may lead to a government shutdown in the US). This tussle may dampen the economic growth.

3. Mortgage rates in the US have gone up recently (after the hint of tapering)

The status quo remains for now:

As far as the financial markets are concerned, the status quo remains for the time being. There is no change in the QE. The Fed will continue with its buying program at the current levels. In the words of FOMC:

“However, the Committee (FOMC) decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.”

This implies that the US economy is still facing challenges and the monetary stimulus is still necessary for achieving maximum employment and price stability. To stimulate the economy, the Fed will continue to print money.
  
What is the state of the US economy?

The US economy is improving, but at a moderate pace. The unemployment rate remains high even though there are positives in the labor market. Some improvements in the economy are: increase in household spending, growth in fixed investment and strengthening housing sector. Inflation is as per expectations. On the negative side, mortgage rates have gone up recently and the economic growth is constrained by fiscal policy.

In the last one year, unemployment rate has fallen from 8.1 percent to the current 7.3 percent and about 2.3 million private-sector jobs have been created. One of the reasons for dip in the unemployment rate is the decline in labor force participation rate owing to people exiting the workforce.

When will the Fed start its tapering?

Between May 22nd this year when the Fed hinted at tapering and now, the financial markets—bond, stock, currency and commodity—have undergone immense volatility. EMs were subject to large outflow of funds. The Fed decision not to taper has taken the financial markets by surprise. In the last 12 to 14 hours, the global stock markets have gone up thinking that the Fed stimulus will increase fund flows into financial markets and EMs.

The tapering decision is now postponed. What lies ahead? When will the Fed start reversing its easy money policy? What is the timeline for the Fed to start raising the federal funds rate? The answers remain elusive. The Fed’s about-turn is bound to confuse the markets, making it difficult to forecast the future Fed decisions. The Fed will keep its focus on US economic growth and unemployment rate.

The Fed’s projections indicate the US economy may grow between 2.0 to 2.3 percent in 2013, rising to 2.9 to 3.1 percent in 2014 and 2.5 to 3.3 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate may decline to 6.4 to 6.8 percent in 2014 and to 5.4 to 5.9 percent by 2016. Inflation may remain between 1.1 and 1.2 percent in 2013; 1.3 to 1.8 percent in 2014; and 1.7 to 2.0 percent in 2016.

Overall, the Fed is expecting a moderate recovery in the US economy and its future monetary policy will be based on fostering maximum employment and price stability. My overall feeling is that the US would not be able to start tapering for another 12 to 18 months.

When will the Fed start increasing the fed rate?

Another persistent and relevant question that bothers the markets is when the Fed will start increasing the fed rate. The fed rate has been kept at a record low of 0 to 0.25 percent since December 2008.  



The Fed has linked its bond buying program to the outlook for the labor market. So, any decision on a tight money policy, that is raising the federal funds rate, will depend on the labor market conditions. The Fed is committed to continuing the fed rate at record lows as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent, and so long as inflationary expectations are well under Fed’s comfortable levels.

The Fed is categorical that a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent would not lead automatically to an increase in the fed rate. Once the unemployment rate goes below 6.5 percent, it will take a decision on the revision of fed rate keeping in mind the overall economic outlook and labor market conditions, especially job gains. In the words of the US Fed:

“…the first increases in short-term rates might not occur until the unemployment rate is considerably below 6.5 percent.”

Market Reaction:

The US Fed's decision has been welcomed by the world’s financial markets. The market perception is that the money taps will continue to be kept open by the central banks. The US stock indices have gone up by around one percent clocking record highs. The Asian stock markets have gone up by two to four percent.

The US dollar is down, while gold and oil prices are up. 

Conclusion:

The Fed has flagged certain fiscal policy problems for the US economy. It is concerned that these problems could be detrimental to the economic growth. There is an ongoing controversy in the US congress over government funding deadline of 30th September. These may entail certain risks for the markets in the coming weeks or months.

The fact that the Fed will continue to print money seems to have cheered the markets. However, there is one dissenting voice in the FOMC. Ester George, one of the FOMC members has cautioned that the massive bond buying program may result it future economic and financial imbalances and higher inflation.

The real problem is that the markets may react violently again when the Fed decides to start tapering. In fact, the admission that the US economy’s growth has moderated should be a negative in the medium term for the markets. But, the markets are currently happy with the Fed decision.

I think market will have to realize the larger picture at some point in future. The reality is that one day these central banks have to stop their massive liquidity injection programs, resulting in large money outflows from emerging to developed markets. 

We need to keep our focus on the ensuing economic indicators.


References:



Photo courtesy: US Federal Reserve.

Abbreviations:

BoJ – Bank of Japan
DMs – Developed Markets
ECB – European Central Bank
EMs – Emerging Markets
IMF – International Monetary Fund

Taper Tantrum

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Additional Reading

I. What is QE3?

After the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, the Fed has been trying to stimulate the US economy with its easy money policy. The Fed has been following an unconventional monetary policy of buying bonds called quantitative easing (QE) as it cannot further lower the current federal funds (fed rate) target of 0 to 0.25 per cent. In the last six years or so, the Fed has increased its monetary base by almost four times as part of the QE, whereby it buys bonds from commercial banks and other financial institutions.

This is aimed at decreasing interest rates and boosting the US economic and job growth. As part of its quantitative easing (QE) program started in September 2012, the Fed has been buying bonds worth $85 billion per month—consisting of US Treasury securities worth $45 billion and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) worth $40 billion. This is the third version of the program, called QE3.

In the first round of quantitative easing (QE1) between November 2008 and March 2010, the Fed bought MBS worth $1,250 billion and agency MBS worth $175 billion, in addition to purchase of US Treasuries. In the second round (QE2) between November 2010 and June 2011, the Fed bought US Treasuries worth $600 billion. Officially, the QE program is known as large scale asset purchases or LSAPs. In layman’s lingo, the QE has increased money supply by leaps and bounds in the banking system, resulting in massive printing of US dollars. This tremendous liquidity has flown out of the US and reached several financial centers around the globe, inflating prices of commodities, EM securities and other asset classes.

II. What monetary policy tools are used by the US Federal Reserve?

In normal times the Fed eases monetary policy by lowering its target for the short-term policy interest rate, known as the federal funds rate, or fed rate. For more than 50 years, the Fed has used the fed rate as a conventional monetary policy instrument. In December 2008, the Fed decreased the fed rate to a record low of 0 to 0.25 percent. After that, the Fed was forced to use other unconventional tools at its disposal, due to the fact that current federal funds rate of 0 to 0.25 per cent could not be lowered further. So, how could the Fed signal interest rates in the economy?

Since the latter part of 2008, the Fed has been using the following two tools:

1. Large scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing, whereby the Fed has been buying US Treasuries, MBS and others; and

2. Forward guidance about short-term interest rates; that is, communicating its plans for setting the fed rate target over the medium term.

III. What is the mandate of the US Fed?

As per the Federal Reserve Act, the statutory objectives for monetary policy are: maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed tries to target inflation rate at two percent. Further, the objectives of the monetary policy should be explained to the public as clearly as possible fostering better communications; enhancing transparency and accountability; and reducing economic and financial uncertainty.

IV. Why is US inflation not rising despite increased money supply?

Even though the Fed has increased its balance sheet by almost four times in the last six years, there has been no alarming increase in the US inflation. This is due to the fact the US commercial banks’ lending growth is sluggish.

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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Tweets @vrk100




Monday, 16 September 2013

What is an Insurance Repository?-VRK100-16Sep2013

The finance minister P Chidambaram today launched the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority’s Insurance Repository System (IRS) at its headquarters in Hyderabad. The IRS will digitize the life insurance policies of all subscribers of all life insurance companies in India. This facility will soon be extended to non-life insurance policies also. IRDA is the Indian government’s regulatory agency for the insurance sector. All the existing policies can be converted to electronic form. And policyholders can opt for an e-insurance policy in electronic form instead of a physical policy.

The idea of providing life insurance policies of all policyholders in demat form was originally suggested by the then president Abdul Kalam in September 2006. It has taken six years for the idea to take a concrete shape.

What is an insurance repository?

An insurance repository is a company authorized by IRDA to maintain data of insurance policies in electronic form on behalf of insurers. It will provide policyholders a facility to keep insurance policies in electronic form and to undertake changes and modifications in policies as requested by the policyholders. If a person is having multiple policies from different insurance companies, she can put all her policies under one roof by opening an e-Insurance account with any one of the insurance repositories authorized by IRDA.

This e-Insurance account is similar to a demat account used for keeping all shares in a single account. Existing insurance policies can be converted to electronic form by applying to the insurance repository. Even new policies can be brought under this e-Insurance account. With this, policyholders can avoid storing policies in physical form.

What are the benefits of this e-Insurance account?

This account facilitates safe-keeping of all your insurance policies under one roof (in a single account at one place). Policyholders have easy access, through online login, to this account and they can download their policies whenever they need them. For any services, they need to contact only the respective insurance repository, which provides a single point of service. They need not contact all the insurance companies separately. Change of address can be easily done saving time. Policyholders will receive a physical statement every year. Even payment of premiums for all policies can be made through a single e-Insurance account. Moreover, the policy benefits after maturity can be directly credited to a bank account designated by the policyholder.

Who are the authorized insurance repositories?

At present, IRDA has the authorized the following five companies as repositories:

1. NSDL Database Management Ltd
2. Central Insurance Repository Ltd
3. SHCIL Projects Ltd
4. Karvy Insurance Repository Ltd
5. CAMS Repository Services Ltd

Other Features:

An e-Insurance account can be opened free of cost by policyholders. Only a single e-Insurance account can be opened by a single person—which means that a person cannot open multiple e-Insurance accounts. IRDA website states that all the services provided by insurance repositories are free of charge.

This is a good initiative by IRDA for the benefit of all policyholders.



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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



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