Saturday, 28 September 2013

Speed Read: What are Asset Classes?



What are Asset Classes?

The broad asset classes are equities or shares, bonds or fixed income, cash & cash equivalents, real estate and alternative investments. 


Cash equivalents are investments in liquid instruments, for example, US Treasury bills. Alternative investments can be further classified as commodities (like gold, silver, crude oil, copper, coffee, and soyabean), currencies, private equity and hedge funds’ derivative strategies.

Shares and bonds can be subdivided into assets in emerging markets, developed markets or frontier markets. In fact, one can subdivide these broad asset classes into several kinds of narrow asset classes – for example, large cap stocks, mid cap stocks, growth or value stocks, non-US bonds or treasury-inflation protection securities (TIPS).




What are the Features of Asset Classes?


Different asset classes have different features. Investment in real estate is highly illiquid in general; whereas investment in large-cap equity shares is highly liquid – in the sense that investments can be converted into cash easily and immediately. 

This table gives a broad overview of liquidity, risk and return parameters of some asset classes:

Asset Class

Liquidity
Short-term return
Long-term return
Short-term risk
Long-term risk







Large cap equity shares

High
Uncertain
High
High
Low to Moderate
Mid cap equity shares

Moderate
Uncertain
High
Very High
Moderate to High
Real estate

Low
Uncertain
Moderate to High
Low to Moderate
Moderate to High
Commodities

High
Uncertain
Moderate to High
Moderate to High
Low to Moderate
Govt. Bonds          (long term)

Low to Moderate
Low 
Moderate
Low
Low to Moderate
Govt. Bonds        (short term)

High
Low to Moderate
Low to Moderate
Low 
Low
Cash

Very High
Low
Low 
Low
Low

            Note: The above table is only for illustrative purposes

  
1. Short-term returns on equities, real estate and commodities are uncertain – but the chances of getting attractive and superior returns from them in the long-term is high
2. From a risk point of view, the risk of losing one’s money in the short-term is higher in case of equities and commodities
3. Cash entails low risk and return, but offers higher liquidity
4. Government bonds bear no default risk, but have interest rate risk – the latter risk is higher for long-term bonds
5. As we have experienced in the past few years, even government/sovereign bonds may suffer huge risk – for example, as in GreeceSpain, and Portugal, following the ongoing euro crisis

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The following images (from old files) are included here after 06Oct2020 for reference purpose > 
 
These images are sourced from various web sources >
 
These images are just for information purposes only, this is not investment advice. Readers should consult their own advisers for advice before making any investment decisions.
 
 

 
 
 
































 
 

















































































 

 

 
 

Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Five Golden Rules for Equity Investors



Five Golden Principles for Investors

Following these five golden principles will keep you ahead of the stock markets:

1).  Margin of Safety: The concept of margin of safety is the most important of Benjamin Graham’s investment principles. He argued that we should never overpay for our investments because our estimate of future cash flows of an investment could be wrong. As such, we require some protection, cushion or margin for our errors of estimation and judgment – so that the chances of getting satisfactory returns are brighter. 

2).  Understanding the Asset: Do your own research by spending your time on understanding the asset. For example, before investing in a stock or equity share of a company, learn about how the company earns its profits and revenues. Who are its competitors and how the company is tackling the competitive pressures? What is the quality of the management, its cash flow, profit and loss account and balance sheet? These fundamentals will keep you in good stead before you put a price on the stock.

3).  Play Your Own Game: A fair knowledge of how financial markets operate is a necessary pre-requisite before you plunge into the investment world. Markets consist of millions of investors, speculators and traders. You have to play your own game to succeed against millions of others. Never follow the crowds. Mind you there will always be a few crooks ready to decamp with your money if you are not alert to their machinations.

4).  Know Your Risk Appetite: Suppose you have invested $50,000 in a commodity hoping to get a return of 30 per cent in two years. Do you have the stomach to tolerate if the commodity’s price falls by 20 per cent or 25 per cent within a year, which is very common? If you require some cash urgently, are you prepared to sell this asset at a steep discount to your acquisition price? These questions will help you in understanding your own risk appetite.

5).  Too Much Leverage is Dangerous: The collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) brought into focus the perils of over-leverage. LTCM, founded inter alia by two Nobel-laureates Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, had built up huge positions to the tune of $ 1,250 billions in financial derivatives market taking on leverage of about 35 times of its own funds. It collapsed in 1998 following Russia’s default causing severe turbulence in markets. An individual or institutional investor is likely to face a similar rout if they depend on excessive debt.



Related: Understanding Asset Allocation 14Oct2012



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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100
  

Friday, 27 September 2013

Decoding US Government Shutdown-VRK100-27Sep2013





What is US Government Shutdown?

A US government shutdown is the inability of the US federal government to provide public services, to meet its debt obligations and to run various government departments smoothly. The US government is facing a possible shutdown by 1st October technically. But the real shutdown may take place after 17th October as indicated by the US treasury secretary Jacob Lew. The full faith and credit of the US government would be in peril.

The US federal government needs money to meet its obligations—such as social security benefits, military salaries, interest and principal payments, tax refunds and others. The money is made available through the budget approved by the US Congress—consisting of Senate and House of Representatives. If funds are not available, the government comes to a grinding halt. So, why is the US in such a mess?

Reasons behind the fund crunch:

The reasons are both political and economic. The Republican and Democratic party members are sparring in the US Congress over increasing the federal government’s debt ceiling. The Republicans want president Barack Obama to postpone his Obamacare by one year and some legislative action on tax and environment matters. Obamacare, which is effective 1st October, is shortened form of Affordable Care Act. It provides health care benefits to US citizens. The Republican proposals are shot down by the Democrats and the president; and the standoff continues at present. With majority members belonging to Republican party, the House of Representatives is controlled by it. But the Senate is controlled by the Democrats.

In fact, the acrimony between the two parties has been going on for the past three years. In 2011, the US government almost came to a standstill, but was averted at the last minute. Under president Bill Clinton’s regime, the US government experienced shutdown intermittently for about four weeks between November 1995 and January 1996.

For more than two decades, the US has been living beyond its means. It has been unable to balance its budgets—with expenditure being more than its revenues. The US consumption has been a boon to exporting countries, such as, China, Japan and Germany. In turn, several non-US countries invest in US Treasury securities, helping bridge the US budget deficits for a long time. But in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, the tepid US economic growth has further worsened the US budget deficits. 

What is debt ceiling?

Debt ceiling is the total amount of money the US federal government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal commitments. The US Congress is in the habit of raising debt limits regularly. In fact, the ceiling has been raised 78 times since 1960. In the following weeks, Congress leaders of both parties have to agree to raise the debt ceiling and make it into law, failing which the US government has to shut down.  

 The US deficit cannot go beyond the debt ceiling approved earlier by the US Congress. The US federal government has to spend within the debt ceiling set by the US Congress. The money is needed to pay nation’s expenses and borrowings. Before 1st October, there has to be an agreement in the US Congress between the two parties.

The current federal borrowing limit is $16.7 trillion—the total public debt outstanding has already reached this limit. The Republicans are refusing to enhance this limit, resulting in the current deadlock on Capitol Hill. Five years back, the total outstanding debt was $10 trillion, which has gone up by a whopping 67 percent in the last five years!

What is the impact?

Public services will be adversely impacted if the government shuts down. Parks and museums would be closed. No passports would be issued as passport offices would be closed. Many other non-essential public services too would be closed. But postal workers and food inspectors would work. Social security benefits, such as unemployment benefits and old-age/insurance benefits, too will continue to be paid as usual. Borrowing costs for the federal government would go up. Home values of the Americans would fall.

The possible shutdown may lead to a financial crisis threatening jobs and savings in the US. This may jeopardize US economic growth in particular and world growth in general. Failing to increase the debt limit would result in unimaginable consequences. Not paying debt obligations amounts to US default and this has not happened in recent history (Detroit city in the US filed for bankruptcy in July this year).

Financial markets seem to have ignored the shutdown impact for the time being. They may be basking in the positive news of the US Fed deferring its tapering decision. The markets would soon realize the ripple effects of the shutdown and may react violently depending on the outcomes from the US Congress.

What is the way-out?

There are some proposals on table, such as bringing a temporary funding bill and prioritizing the payment of obligations. At the time of writing this post, the discord over the budget remains. It is hoped better sense would prevail between the sparring parties. Nobody is sure how the impasse can be resolved in the next few days, if not weeks.  

To Sum Up:

If the shutdown is only for a few days, the impact may not be material. But if it is prolonged it will have huge negative effects, not only on the US economy but also across global financial markets, which are basically US-centric.

The US has been unable to balance its budget, but the world is still willing to pour money into the US thinking that the country would never default. Rampant government borrowing has resulted in an ocean of debt for the US.

Investors such as Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are highly critical of the US government’s efforts to flood the world with US dollars or fiat money. They have been arguing that the US has to implode at some point of time. The ongoing bitter fight on Capitol Hill has damaged the credibility of the US in the eyes of the world and if better sense does not prevail on the US lawmakers, it will lead to some tectonic movements across the globe. Investors are to brace themselves for increased volatility in the markets in the next one month until a settlement is in sight.


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Picture: Capital Hill Building. Washington DC. Courtesy: www.aoc.gov

Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100

Thursday, 26 September 2013

How to Choose Insurance Wisely?-VRK100-26Sep2013




Dear all,

The other day, on a sweltering afternoon, I was ambling through the crowded markets of Dadar West in Central Bombay, which offers all kinds of merchandise to people from all walks of life; irrespective of their income levels. You can buy just about anything from these bustling bazaars which offer a variety of products and services, right from provisions, fresh vegetables, fruits, meat/fish, jewellery, watches, eatables, photography, eateries, electrical goods, domestic appliances, furniture, to ready-made garments and so on. You can get some great bargains also here. The interesting thing about Dadar West market is that it is suitable for consumers with all kinds of budgets.

As I was jaywalking through the pavements, amidst jostling crowds, literally rubbing shoulders cheek-by-jowl with other shoppers, I found some plastic sheets in various hues strewn all over the sidewalk. Looking at them closely, I gathered that the sheets were covers for several gadgets, like, refrigerators, washing machines, television sets, mixers, grinders, etc. We Indians have a particular liking to cover each and every gadget, thing or appliance with a cover, be it plastic or cloth. We buy covers for our suitcases and for our mobile phone handsets, cars, two-wheelers, etc. Car owners, including those of C and D-segment cars, never remove the plastic covers from their seats in their cars, even two or three years after buying it! No doubt, living in a tropical country nearer to the Equator with the Sun beating down vertically, we need to protect our goods from heat and dust. May be, it is a curious case of Indians overdoing it. In some houses, I’ve have seen ladies protecting their Godrej wardrobes/almirahs too with covers!

But when it comes to basic covers that are very vital in our lives, we seem be utterly unaware of the consequences of not having those important covers. One typical case is the bravado exhibited by motorcyclists on our bumpy roads without wearing any crash helmet. And then there is this most vital cover, that is, insurance cover – insurance cover for the lives of earning members of the family. Of course, we don’t do any insurance for our household articles also, that’s a different issue altogether.

Here is an engaging conversation one had in a local train with a young man in his mid-30s:


HP: “Hi, Vishal, how’re you?”

Vishal: “Fine, and what about you and where are you coming from?’

“Fine, thank you, Vishal. I’m just coming from Nariman Point after attending a seminar on life insurance there.”

 “Okay, how was the seminar?”

It was good. How is life and what about your folks?”

“Life is good and my family are also doing well.”

“Okay. By the way, how much insurance cover do you have?”

“(rolling his eyes) Mmm…I pay some thing like Rs 65,000 to Rs 70,000 for my insurance policies every year.”

I’m not asking you about the insurance premium you’re paying, what I want to know is what is the total sum assured of your policies.”

“(after scratching his head for a few minutes…) I think I’ve got four polices – money back and ULIPs – and total sum assured is around Rs 3 lakh.”

You’re paying a premium of Rs 70,000 for a total cover of Rs 3 lakh!”

“Yes, HP, that is right.”

Vishal, do you think the amount of insurance, that is Rs 3 lakh, is enough for a man like you working for a good company in Bombay?”
“I’m getting good income tax deduction for the premia I pay every year and I get good sums regularly from my money-back policies.”

It’s correct that you get IT deduction, but the total insurance cover may not be sufficient for your insurance needs.”

(silence for some time)

As you’re working for a good company, I suppose your annual salary will be around Rs 4 lakh, right?”

“Yes, it comes to around Rs 4.5 lakh.”

Your annual income is Rs 4.5 lakh, but your insurance cover is only Rs 3 lakh. Do you think it’s enough to protect your family members if anything happens to you?”

“(making some murmurings and feeling sweaty in local train where we’re packed like sardines, he finally admitted) I don’t know, you tell me how much insurance I need.”

It depends on several factors – like your age, annual income, family obligations and needs, liabilities, dependent parents/siblings, future inflation, future needs, medical history, and others. But since your family obligations are limited and you don’t have big liabilities, I can tell you one thumb rule, Vishal.”

“What’s that?”

In general, an earning member of a family requires a life insurance cover of about 10 to 12 times his/her annual income. This is only a ballpark amount. If one is having a house loan of, say Rs 15 lakhs, one’s insurance need will go up by that amount since he/she can’t afford to pass on their loan liability to other family members.”

“(shocked with disbelief) Ten to 12 times, that’s too much insurance!”

Yes, it’s true. Why I tell 10 to 12 times is: Suppose a person with an annual income of Rs 5 lakh insures for, say, Rs 60 lakhs. If the person dies, the family will get that Rs 60 lakh sum assured from the insurance company and they can earn an annual interest of around Rs 4.80 lakh at an average of 8 per cent return. And that money will be sufficient for making a decent living for the surviving members of the family.”

“I can’t afford to pay so much amount of premium.”

I think you can definitely afford it, provided you opt for the cheapest insurance policy.”

“What’s that?”

It’s pure term insurance policy offered by several good insurance companies in India with the lowest premium. Pure term insurance policy is basically bought for protecting your loved ones.” 

“What would be the premium of that policy for my age?”

For a 35-year old male with normal health, for a term insurance of Rs 60-lakh sum assured and for a term of 25 years, the annual premium will be around Rs 20,000 – the cheapest from an insurance company among more than 20 insurers in India. The most expensive one will be Rs 33,000 per annum from a big insurer.”

“(raising eyebrows with excitement) Is that only Rs 20,000? But, I’m paying Rs 70,000 premium for only Rs 3 lakh sum assured, why is that?”

Because, there is lot of mis-selling. All  your policies are money-back and ULIPs and their premia are very high. Insurance agents usually sell policies that fetch them highest commissions. In case of ULIPs, agents get up to 40 per cent of the annual premium as commission in the first year itself. While buying, you ask your agent the amount of commission she gets from your policy.”

“(looking perplexed) Forty per cent commission, is it true?”

Yes, it’s correct. You’ve to compare various life insurance companies’ policies before opting for a specific policy. Pure term insurance plans are the cheapest and recently their premium rates have come down substantially due to reduction in solvency margin by the insurance regulator.

“In fact, IRDA, the insurance regulator, has permitted the insurance companies to sell insurance policies online at lower premium and a few insurers have started selling term insurance policies online – with the premium being one of the lowest.”

“Is it really, can I buy term insurance policies online?”

“Yes, you can, of course. But, it’s always better to consult your certified financial advisor unless you are an expert on insurance matters. After that, you can take a decision depending on your individual needs and can buy that policy online.”

“By the way, what’s the return I get from this pure term insurance policy?”

“Nothing!”

“(utterly shocked) I don’t get any return?”

No, you don’t get any return from the term insurance policy if you survive the policy term. It’s similar to your car insurance. You just pay and forget. Only if anything untoward happens to the insured, his/her family will get the full sum assured.”

“(shaking his head vertically and horizontally) Mmm…Why I should invest in this term insurance if I don’t get any return?”

Good question, Vishal. Insurance is separate and investment is separate. Don’t club them together. As I told you earlier, for a total cover of Rs 60 lakhs, you pay a premium of only Rs 20,000 per annum.

“But, if you opt for an endowment, money-back or a whole-life policy or ULIPs, you’ve to pay something like, Rs 2 lakh to Rs 5 lakh premium annually, which is more than your annual income!”

“(shrugging off his shoulders) I need to get some returns on my investment, nah?”

Basically, you need to keep insurance and investment separate. First, buy term insurance very cheaply and the remaining amount you can invest in high-yielding equity mutual funds which are likely to fetch you a return of up to 12 to 14 per cent over long-term.”

“Are returns from equity MFs guaranteed?”

No, they’re not. Going by their track record in the last 15 years in India, I’m telling you this. But, if you are risk averse, you can still invest the amount in a PPF account or other safe/guranteed instrument, which may fetch you returns between 8 and 11 per cent depending on your tax bracket.”

“Okay, HP, can you tell me some good policy for my child.”

You mean child insurance? Why does your child need insurance?”

“(not knowing what to answer) Huhhh…so many policies are being offered… I’ve seen several ads on billboards, TV and in newspapers.”

“Well, life insurance needs to be done on behalf of the breadwinner in the family – the insurance cover should be for the life of the breadwinner and not for the child. So that, if anything happens to the earning parent, the child get protected and receives the sum assured.”

“I will require money when my child goes for higher education.”

I entirely agree with you, you need money for your child’s higher education. After taking adequate basic pure term insurance covering your life, as I told you about 10 to 12 times of your annual income; you can consider a child insurance plan provided your savings permit you to buy that child insurance plans.”

“There are some child plans available in the market that cover the life of the child.”

Yes, there are. That doesn’t mean you buy them. The parent does not incur any financial loss, so it’s not necessary to take policies that cover the life of the child.”

“But, how do I ensure that I save some money for my child’s higher education or, say, marriage?”

As I told you, first take pure term insurance covering your life; then you can opt for some money-back or endowment child insurance plans that protect the life of the earning parent, but not the child. Or, you can opt for a combination of pure term insurance and equity mutual funds with long-term regular investments.”

“Which life insurance companies are offering child insurance plans?”

Almost all the life insurers in India are offering these policies. You can consult your certified insurance advisor, she can suggest you good policies depending on your individual specific needs. But, one thing I can tell you please don’t buy ULIPs, as they are highly expensive, non-transparent and you end up paying hefty commission to agents.”

“Thank you, very much, HP!”

Thank you, Vishal. ”

As the local train reached Bandra station, I got off from it and strutted off toward my downtown BKC residence taking on the nice skywalks built recently by the local authorities for pedestrians.

 Picture courtesy: Google

Note: This is a repost of what I posted earlier in December 2009, but it's still relevant.

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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. This write-up is for information purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Investors are advised to consult their financial advisor before taking any investment decisions. He blogs at:



Connect with him on twitter @vrk100

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Saturday, 21 September 2013

RBI's Messy Monetary Policy


Reserve Bank of India on 20 September 2013 announced its monetary policy review, listing out various measures and reasons behind them.

But RBI seems to be in a lot of confusion. In the last two years, the monetary policy has been completely botched, to say the least. I was writing my thoughts on the RBI's latest policy announcements. But in between, I've come across this brilliant piece.

Dr Ajay Shah has written a fabulous article on the RBI's wavering messy policies:

Please read the same at:


I share similar views as expressed by Dr Ajay Shah.



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Disclaimer: The author is an investment analyst, equity investor and freelance writer. These are his personal views. He blogs at:




Connect with him on twitter @vrk100